The nutritional status of pre-school children, Kainji Lake communities, Nigeria: a follow-up survey

This survey was carried out to provide the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project (KLFPP), whose overall goal is the improvement of the standard of living of fishing communities around Kainji Lake, Nigeria, managing the fisheries on a sustainable basis, with follow-up data for long-term monitoring and evaluation of the overall project goal. A similar survey, conducted in 1996, provided the baseline against which data from the current survey was evaluated. In a cross-sectional survey, anthropometric data was collected from 576 children aged 3-60 months in 282 fisherfolk households around the southern sector of Kainji Lake, Nigeria. In addition, data was collected on the nutritional status and fertility of the mothers, vaccination coverage of children and child survival indicators. For control purposes, 374 children and 181 mothers from non-fishing households around Kainji Lake were likewise covered by the survey. A standardised questionnaire was used to collect relevant data, while anthropometric measurements were made using appropriate equipment. Data compilation and analysis was carried out with a specially designed Microsoft Access application, using NCHS reference data for the analysis of anthropometric measurements. Statistical significance testing was done using EPI-INFO" software. The results of the follow-up survey indicate a slight increase in the percentage of stunted pre-school children in fishing households around Kainji Lake, from 40% in 1996 to 41% in 1999. This increase is however not statistically significant (p= 0.704). Over the same period, the percentage of stunted children in non-fishing households increased from 37% to 39% (p= 0.540), which is also not statistically significant. Likewise, there were no statistically significant differences between the 1996 and 1999 results for the prevalence of either wasted or underweight children in fishing households. The same applies to children from non-fishing households. In addition, vaccination coverage remains very low while infant and child mortality rates continue to be extremely high with about 1 in 5 children dying before their fifth birthday. There has been no perceptible and lasting improvement in the standard of living of fishing households over the course of the second project phase as indicated by the persistently high prevalence of stunting. The situation is the same for the control group, indicating that for the region as a whole, a number of factors beyond the immediate influence of the project continue to negatively impact on the standard of living. The results also show that the project activities have not had any negative long-term effect on the nutritional status of the beneficiaries. (PDF contains 44 pages)

Essays on cooperation and reciprocity

This dissertation comprises three essays that use theory-based experiments to gain understanding of how cooperation and efficiency is affected by certain variables and institutions in different types of strategic interactions prevalent in our society.

Chapter 2 analyzes indefinite horizon two-person dynamic favor exchange games with private information in the laboratory. Using a novel experimental design to implement a dynamic game with a stochastic jump signal process, this study provides insights into a relation where cooperation is without immediate reciprocity. The primary finding is that favor provision under these conditions is considerably less than under the most efficient equilibrium. Also, individuals do not engage in exact score-keeping of net favors, rather, the time since the last favor was provided affects decisions to stop or restart providing favors.

Evidence from experiments in Cournot duopolies is presented in Chapter 3 where players indulge in a form of pre-play communication, termed as revision phase, before playing the one-shot game. During this revision phase individuals announce their tentative quantities, which are publicly observed, and revisions are costless. The payoffs are determined only by the quantities selected at the end under real time revision, whereas in a Poisson revision game, opportunities to revise arrive according to a synchronous Poisson process and the tentative quantity corresponding to the last revision opportunity is implemented. Contrasting results emerge. While real time revision of quantities results in choices that are more competitive than the static Cournot-Nash, significantly lower quantities are implemented in the Poisson revision games. This shows that partial cooperation can be sustained even when individuals interact only once.

Chapter 4 investigates the effect of varying the message space in a public good game with pre-play communication where player endowments are private information. We find that neither binary communication nor a larger finite numerical message space results in any efficiency gain relative to the situation without any form of communication. Payoffs and public good provision are higher only when participants are provided with a discussion period through unrestricted text chat.

Environmentally induced physiological responses that determine fish survival and distribution: a review

Limitation to an aqueous habitat is the most fundamental physiological constraint imposed upon fish, phrases such as 'like a fish of water', convey our acceptance of the general unsuitability of fish for terrestrial existence. The constraints that restrict fish to an aquatic habitat relate to respiration, acid-base regulation, nitrogenous excretion, water balance and ionic regulation. A fish not adapted for an amphibious lifestyle when removed from water, becomes hypoxic and hypercapnic and soon succumbs to respiratory acidosis because the problem of excretion of H super(+) and C0 sub(2) are more immediate than lack of oxygen. This happen because fish gills collapse in air, while the ventilator arrangements that moves an incompressible medium (water) oven them become ineffective

Characterization of the neural mechanisms supporting the implementation of cognitive control in human decision making

Humans are particularly adept at modifying their behavior in accordance with changing environmental demands. Through various mechanisms of cognitive control, individuals are able to tailor actions to fit complex short- and long-term goals. The research described in this thesis uses functional magnetic resonance imaging to characterize the neural correlates of cognitive control at two levels of complexity: response inhibition and self-control in intertemporal choice. First, we examined changes in neural response associated with increased experience and skill in response inhibition; successful response inhibition was associated with decreased neural response over time in the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, a region widely implicated in cognitive control, providing evidence for increased neural efficiency with learned automaticity. We also examined a more abstract form of cognitive control using intertemporal choice. In two experiments, we identified putative neural substrates for individual differences in temporal discounting, or the tendency to prefer immediate to delayed rewards. Using dynamic causal models, we characterized the neural circuit between ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an area involved in valuation, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in self-control in intertemporal and dietary choice, and found that connectivity from dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to ventromedial prefrontal cortex increases at the time of choice, particularly when delayed rewards are chosen. Moreover, estimates of the strength of connectivity predicted out-of-sample individual rates of temporal discounting, suggesting a neurocomputational mechanism for variation in the ability to delay gratification. Next, we interrogated the hypothesis that individual differences in temporal discounting are in part explained by the ability to imagine future reward outcomes. Using a novel paradigm, we imaged neural response during the imagining of primary rewards, and identified negative correlations between activity in regions associated the processing of both real and imagined rewards (lateral orbitofrontal cortex and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, respectively) and the individual temporal discounting parameters estimated in the previous experiment. These data suggest that individuals who are better able to represent reward outcomes neurally are less susceptible to temporal discounting. Together, these findings provide further insight into role of the prefrontal cortex in implementing cognitive control, and propose neurobiological substrates for individual variation.

Lightweight deformable mirrors for future space telescopes

This thesis presents a concept for ultra-lightweight deformable mirrors based on a thin substrate of optical surface quality coated with continuous active piezopolymer layers that provide modes of actuation and shape correction. This concept eliminates any kind of stiff backing structure for the mirror surface and exploits micro-fabrication technologies to provide a tight integration of the active materials into the mirror structure, to avoid actuator print-through effects. Proof-of-concept, 10-cm-diameter mirrors with a low areal density of about 0.5 kg/m² have been designed, built and tested to measure their shape-correction performance and verify the models used for design. The low cost manufacturing scheme uses replication techniques, and strives for minimizing residual stresses that deviate the optical figure from the master mandrel. It does not require precision tolerancing, is lightweight, and is therefore potentially scalable to larger diameters for use in large, modular space telescopes. Other potential applications for such a laminate could include ground-based mirrors for solar energy collection, adaptive optics for atmospheric turbulence, laser communications, and other shape control applications.

The immediate application for these mirrors is for the Autonomous Assembly and Reconfiguration of a Space Telescope (AAReST) mission, which is a university mission under development by Caltech, the University of Surrey, and JPL. The design concept, fabrication methodology, material behaviors and measurements, mirror modeling, mounting and control electronics design, shape control experiments, predictive performance analysis, and remaining challenges are presented herein. The experiments have validated numerical models of the mirror, and the mirror models have been used within a model of the telescope in order to predict the optical performance. A demonstration of this mirror concept, along with other new telescope technologies, is planned to take place during the AAReST mission.

Effects of Climate Change on the European Nuclear Power Sector

4 p.

Optimal Investment in Energy Efficiency under Uncertainty

41 p.

Impacts of Climate Change on European Critical Infrastructures: The Case of the Power Sector

23 p.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

The Private Provision of International Impure Public Goods: the Case of Climate Policy

33 p.

Direct simulation of quantum dynamics in complex systems

Accurate simulation of quantum dynamics in complex systems poses a fundamental theoretical challenge with immediate application to problems in biological catalysis, charge transfer, and solar energy conversion. The varied length- and timescales that characterize these kinds of processes necessitate development of novel simulation methodology that can both accurately evolve the coupled quantum and classical degrees of freedom and also be easily applicable to large, complex systems. In the following dissertation, the problems of quantum dynamics in complex systems are explored through direct simulation using path-integral methods as well as application of state-of-the-art analytical rate theories.

Da genialidade sensível ao amor à norma: existência e consciência em Kierkegaard

Essa dissertação pretende deter-se sobre três pequenos e específicos textos constantes da obra Ou... Ou, do dinamarquês Sören Aybe Kierkegaard (1813-1855). Os dois primeiros textos são Os estados eróticos imediatos e Diário do Sedutor, e estão entre os textos da primeira parte do livro supracitado; o terceiro texto intitula-se O equilíbrio entre o estético e o ético na formação da personalidade e pertence à segunda parte do mesmo livro. Partindo de uma explicitação detalhada do conteúdo destes textos pretende-se pensar a questão dos estádios kierkegaardianos (estético, ético e religioso) e a forma como estes se relacionam com a existência e a consciência. No âmbito da existência concreta, a questão da consciência aparece para o filósofo dinamarquês a partir da explanação destas três dimensões existenciais, as quais se constituem em sintonia com disposições afetivas e também com modos materiais de viver e agir, detidamente descritos pela existência cotidiana de personagens. Desprovida, inicialmente, de qualquer determinação, a consciência vai se concretizando a partir de sua existência sensível, que guarda constantemente diferentes momentos ou possibilidades próprias. A tese fundamental a ser discutida, neste contexto, é a de que esses momentos existenciais não podem ser considerados de forma evolutiva, mas precisam ser tomados como possibilidades ou formas de vida, com sua positividade e seus riscos. O trabalho pretende mostrar de que forma as leituras correntes da filosofia de Kierkegaard tendem a enaltecer o aspecto ético e moral dos estádios, acabando por ignorar a dimensão mais originária do ser, qual seja, a dimensão da disposição imediata que, ao ser desprezada, abre um flanco entre o homem e ele mesmo.

Efeito do selamento dentinário imediato na resistência de união de restaurações cerâmicas

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o efeito do selamento dentinário imediato na cimentação definitiva de restaurações cerâmicas (Empress2Ivoclar Vivadent), levando em consideração a influência de diferentes métodos de remoção dos restos de cimento provisório da superfície dentinária previamente selada. Para isso foram utilizados 72 molares, hígidos, conseguidos no banco de dentes da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Os dentes foram divididos em nove grupos, os três primeiros serviram como grupo controle, onde não houve contaminação com nenhum cimento provisório, sendo eles: G1, onde o selamento e a cimentação definitiva foram feitas 15 dias após a confecção dos preparos cavitários; G2, onde o selamento dentinário foi feito imediatamente após o preparo e a cimentação definitiva após 15 dias; G3, onde o preparo, selamento e cimentação definitiva foram feitos no mesmo momento. Os próximos grupos foram os do selamento tardio, onde o sistema adesivo foi aplicado somente no momento da cimentação. Nestes grupos, após o preparo foram cimentadas restaurações provisórias com um cimento livre de eugenol (Temp BondNE) e após 15 dias as restaurações provisórias foram removidas e os restos de cimento limpos com diferentes métodos: G4: remoção com instrumento manual; G5: remoção com jato de bicarbonato; G6: remoção com pontas de ultra-som; após esta limpeza o sistema adesivo foi aplicado e as restaurações cerâmicas cimentadas. Por último foram os grupos do selamento dentinário imediato, onde o sistema adesivo foi aplicado imediatamente após a confecção dos preparos cavitários e em seguida foi feita a cimentação das restaurações provisórias. Após 15 dias as restaurações provisórias foram removidas, os restos de cimento foram limpos com os diferentes métodos: G7: remoção com instrumento manual; G8: remoção com jato de bicarbonato; G9: remoção com pontas de ultra-som. Após a limpeza as restaurações cerâmicas foram cimentadas. Para todos os grupos o sistema adesivo utilizado foi o Optibond FL Kerr e o cimento resinoso foi o Rely X ARC3M/ESPE. Vinte e quatro horas após as cimentações cerâmicas os corpos de prova foram submetidos ao ensaio mecânico de push out em uma máquina de ensaios universais EMIC DL. Os valores de resistência de união foram obtidos em KgF, convertidos em MPa e analisados estatisticamente. O teste de ANOVA mostrou que houve diferença estatisticamente significante entre os grupos (p≤0,05) e em seguida o t-teste mostrou que a técnica do selamento imediato resultou nos melhores valores de resistência de união. Por último, o teste de comparações múltiplas Student-Newman-Keuls (Teste SNK) mostrou que o método de limpeza dos restos de cimento provisório da superfície dentinária apresenta influência na resistência de união das restaurações cerâmicas. Com base nos resultados pôde-se concluir que a técnica do selamento imediato promoveu maior resistência adesiva para as restaurações cerâmicas e quanto ao método de limpeza, o melhor resultado, independente da técnica adesiva utilizada, foi a remoção com as pontas de ultrasson.

Associação entre periodontite crônica e marcadores de risco para doença cardiovascular

Pesquisas recentes têm demonstrado que a periodontite pode modificar a concentração sanguínea de uma série de tipos celulares e substâncias bioquímicas, que são considerados fatores de risco para doenças cardiovasculares. Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a associação entre a periodontite crônica e marcadores de risco para doença cardiovascular. No Estudo I foram examinados 100 pacientes aparentemente saudáveis sistemicamente, sendo 66 portadores de periodontite crônica e 34 pacientes controle, sem doença periodontal. Exames periodontais e exames sanguíneos foram realizados, e obtidas as espessuras das camadas íntima-média (IMT) da artéria carótida. No Estudo II, 66 pacientes participantes do Estudo I, diagnosticados com periodontite crônica, foram aleatoriamente submetidos a tratamento periodontal imediato (Grupo Teste, n=33) ou tratamento periodontal retardado (Grupo Controle, n=33). Os dados colhidos no Estudo I foram registrados como pré-tratamento (T0). Novos exames clínicos periodontais e laboratoriais foram realizados no período de 2 meses (T2) e 6 meses (T6) após os exames iniciais (Grupo Controle) ou conclusão do tratamento periodontal (Grupo Teste). Os dados colhidos foram analisados através de testes estatísticos. Os resultados mostraram que pacientes com periodontite crônica quando comparados ao grupo controle, apresentaram valores médios significativamente mais elevados na contagem total de hemácias (p<0,001), hemoglobina (p<0,001), hematócrito (p<0,001), contagem de plaquetas (p=0,019), velocidade de hemossedimentação (p<0,001), proteína C-reativa (p<0,001). Os níveis de HDL-colesterol foram significativamente mais baixos nos pacientes com periodontite crônica quando comparados ao grupo controle (p<0,001). As camadas íntima-média da parede da artéria carótida esquerda foram significativamente mais espessas nos pacientes com periodontite crônica quando comparados ao grupo controle (p=0,049). Os indíviduos com periodontite crônica também apresentaram 3,26 vezes mais chances de possuir Síndrome Metabólica do que aqueles indivíduos que não possuem doença peridontal (IC 95%: 1,8-5,9). No Estudo II, quando comparados os valores médios dos dados hematológicos após tratamento, no grupo teste, foi possível observar melhora estatisticamente significativa, entre T0/T2, dos valores de VHS e triglicerídeos (p=0,002; p=0,004; respectivamente). Redução nos valores médios da contagem total de leucócitos, VHS, CRP, transaminase glutâmico pirúvica, colesterol total e triglicerídeos, entre T0/T6, foi verificada no grupo teste pós-tratamento (p=0,028; p<0,001; p<0,001; p=0,010; p<0,001; p=0,015, respectivamente). Os resultados indicaram que a periodontite crônica severa está associada com níveis elevados de marcadores da inflamação e trombogênese, além de alterações no perfil lipídico em indivíduos sistemicamente saudáveis, podendo atuar como possível fator de risco para as doenças cardiovasculares. O tratamento periodontal não-cirúrgico mostrou-se eficaz na redução dos níveis dos marcadores sistêmicos da inflamação e na melhora do perfil lipídico em indivíduos com doença periodontal severa, consequentemente, reduzindo o risco de doenças cardiovasculares.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.