Stochastic stability and the evolution of coordination in spatially structured populations.

Animals can often coordinate their actions to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes. However, this can result in a social dilemma when uncertainty about the behavior of partners creates multiple fitness peaks. Strategies that minimize risk ("risk dominant") instead of maximizing reward ("payoff dominant") are favored in economic models when individuals learn behaviors that increase their payoffs. Specifically, such strategies are shown to be "stochastically stable" (a refinement of evolutionary stability). Here, we extend the notion of stochastic stability to biological models of continuous phenotypes at a mutation-selection-drift balance. This allows us to make a unique prediction for long-term evolution in games with multiple equilibria. We show how genetic relatedness due to limited dispersal and scaled to account for local competition can crucially affect the stochastically-stable outcome of coordination games. We find that positive relatedness (weak local competition) increases the chance the payoff dominant strategy is stochastically stable, even when it is not risk dominant. Conversely, negative relatedness (strong local competition) increases the chance that strategies evolve that are neither payoff nor risk dominant. Extending our results to large multiplayer coordination games we find that negative relatedness can create competition so extreme that the game effectively changes to a hawk-dove game and a stochastically stable polymorphism between the alternative strategies evolves. These results demonstrate the usefulness of stochastic stability in characterizing long-term evolution of continuous phenotypes: the outcomes of multiplayer games can be reduced to the generic equilibria of two-player games and the effect of spatial structure can be analyzed readily.

Common variants associated with plasma triglycerides and risk for coronary artery disease.

Triglycerides are transported in plasma by specific triglyceride-rich lipoproteins; in epidemiological studies, increased triglyceride levels correlate with higher risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, it is unclear whether this association reflects causal processes. We used 185 common variants recently mapped for plasma lipids (P < 5 × 10(-8) for each) to examine the role of triglycerides in risk for CAD. First, we highlight loci associated with both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglyceride levels, and we show that the direction and magnitude of the associations with both traits are factors in determining CAD risk. Second, we consider loci with only a strong association with triglycerides and show that these loci are also associated with CAD. Finally, in a model accounting for effects on LDL-C and/or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, the strength of a polymorphism's effect on triglyceride levels is correlated with the magnitude of its effect on CAD risk. These results suggest that triglyceride-rich lipoproteins causally influence risk for CAD.

GENCODE: the reference human genome annotation for The ENCODE Project.

The GENCODE Consortium aims to identify all gene features in the human genome using a combination of computational analysis, manual annotation, and experimental validation. Since the first public release of this annotation data set, few new protein-coding loci have been added, yet the number of alternative splicing transcripts annotated has steadily increased. The GENCODE 7 release contains 20,687 protein-coding and 9640 long noncoding RNA loci and has 33,977 coding transcripts not represented in UCSC genes and RefSeq. It also has the most comprehensive annotation of long noncoding RNA (lncRNA) loci publicly available with the predominant transcript form consisting of two exons. We have examined the completeness of the transcript annotation and found that 35% of transcriptional start sites are supported by CAGE clusters and 62% of protein-coding genes have annotated polyA sites. Over one-third of GENCODE protein-coding genes are supported by peptide hits derived from mass spectrometry spectra submitted to Peptide Atlas. New models derived from the Illumina Body Map 2.0 RNA-seq data identify 3689 new loci not currently in GENCODE, of which 3127 consist of two exon models indicating that they are possibly unannotated long noncoding loci. GENCODE 7 is publicly available from gencodegenes.org and via the Ensembl and UCSC Genome Browsers.

Cognitive issues in fingerprint analysis: Inter- and intra-expert consistency and the effect of a "target" comparison

Deciding whether two fingerprint marks originate from the same source requires examination and comparison of their features. Many cognitive factors play a major role in such information processing. In this paper we examined the consistency (both between- and within-experts) in the analysis of latent marks, and whether the presence of a 'target' comparison print affects this analysis. Our findings showed that the context of a comparison print affected analysis of the latent mark, possibly influencing allocation of attention, visual search, and threshold for determining a 'signal'. We also found that even without the context of the comparison print there was still a lack of consistency in analysing latent marks. Not only was this reflected by inconsistency between different experts, but the same experts at different times were inconsistent with their own analysis. However, the characterization of these inconsistencies depends on the standard and definition of what constitutes inconsistent. Furthermore, these effects were not uniform; the lack of consistency varied across fingerprints and experts. We propose solutions to mediate variability in the analysis of friction ridge skin.

Stochastic Dynamic Northern Corn Rootworm Population Model, January 2000

A complete life cycle model for northern corn rootworm, Diabrotica barberi Smith and Lawrence, is developed using a published single-season model of adult population dynamics and data from field experiments. Temperature-dependent development and age-dependent advancement determine adult population dynamics and oviposition, while a simple stochastic hatch and density-dependent larval survival model determine adult emergence. Dispersal is not modeled. To evaluate the long-run performance of the model, stochastically generated daily air and soil temperatures are used for 100-year simulations for a variety of corn planting and flowering dates in Ithaca, NY, and Brookings, SD. Once the model is corrected for a bias in oviposition, model predictions for both locations are consistent with anecdotal field data. Extinctions still occur, but these may be consistent with northern corn rootworm metapopulation dynamics.

Varicella Zoster Virus CNS disease in hematopoietic cell transplantation: A single center experience

Background: Varciella Zoster Virus (VZV) can lead to serious complications in Hematopoietic Cell Transplant (HCT) recipients. Central nervous system (CNS) VZV can be one of the most devastating infections in transplant recipients, yet little is known about this rare disease. Objectives: To describe CNS VZV in the post-transplant period and to define potential risk factors in the HCT population. Methods: We reviewed the course of all patients who received a first HCT at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center (FHCRC) in Seattle, WA from 1/1996 through 12/2007. Data were collected retrospectively using the Long-Term Follow-Up database, which includes on-site examinations, outside records, laboratory tests, and yearly questionnaires. Patients were classified as CNS VZV if they had laboratory confirmation of VZV in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), or had zoster with associated clinical and laboratory findings consistent with CNS disease. Results: A total of six patients developed VZV CNS disease during the evaluation period (table 1). Diagnosis was confirmed in 3/6 by detection of VZV in CSF by PCR. All other patients had a clinical diagnosis based on the presence of CNS symptoms, zoster, lymphocytic pleiocytosis, and response to IV acyclovir. Patients who developed CNS disease had a mean age of 42 years (range 34-51) at time of transplant. CNS disease developed at a mean of 9 months posttransplantation (range 0.5-24 months), and severity varied, ranging from meningitis (3/6) to encephalitis/myelitis (3/6). All had active graft-versus host disease (GHVD) and all were being treated with immunosuppressive therapy at time of diagnosis. Fever and headache were the most common symptoms, but patients who developed focal CNS findings or seizures (3/6) had a more complicated clinical course. While most patients presented with classic VZV/zoster skin lesions, 2/6 patients had no dermatologic findings associated with their presentation. Four (66%) of patients who developed VZV CNS disease died, two related to VZV complications despite aggressive antiviral therapy. Conclusions: In this cohort of HCT patients, VZV CNS disease was a rare complication. Mortality due to CNS VZV is high, particularly in patients who develop focal neurologic findings or seizures. Even in the absence of skin lesions, VZV CNS disease should be considered in patients who develop fevers and neurologic symptoms.

Anorectal Malformations: Finding the Pathway out of the Labyrinth.

Anorectal malformations (ARMs) are a complex group of congenital anomalies involving the distal anus and rectum, as well as the urinary and genital tracts in a significant number of cases. Most ARMs result from abnormal development of the urorectal septum in early fetal life. In most cases, the anus is not perforated and the distal enteric component ends blindly (atresia) or as a fistula into the urinary tract, genital tract, or perineum. ARMs are also present in a great number of syndromes and associations of congenital anomalies. The classification of ARMs is mainly based on the position of the rectal pouch relative to the puborectal sling, the presence or absence of fistulas, and the types and locations of the fistulas. All of this information is crucial in determining the most appropriate surgical approach for each case. Imaging studies play a key role in evaluation and classification of ARMs. In neonates, clinical and radiologic examinations in the first 3 days of life help determine the type of ARM and the need for early colostomy. In older children, preoperative pelvic magnetic resonance imaging is the most efficient diagnostic method for evaluating the size, morphology, and grade of development of the sphincteric musculature.

Cartilage thickness at the posterior medial femoral condyle is increased in femorotibial knee osteoarthritis: a cross-sectional CT arthrography study (Part 2).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the thickness of cartilage at the posterior aspect of the medial and lateral condyle in Osteoarthritis (OA) knees compared to non-OA knees using computed tomography arthrography (CTA). DESIGN: 535 consecutive knee CTAs (mean patient age = 48.7 ± 16.0; 286 males), were retrospectively analyzed. Knees were radiographically classified into OA or non-OA knees according to a modified Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grading scheme. Cartilage thickness at the posterior aspect of the medial and lateral femoral condyles was measured on sagittal reformations, and compared between matched OA and non-OA knees in the whole sample population and in subgroups defined by gender and age. RESULTS: The cartilage of the posterior aspect of medial condyle was statistically significantly thicker in OA knees (2.43 mm (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.36, 2.51)) compared to non-OA knees (2.13 mm (95%CI = 2.02, 2.17)) in the entire sample population (P < 0.001), as well as for all subgroups of patients over 40 years old (all P ≤ 0.01), except for females above 60 years old (P = 0.07). Increase in cartilage thickness at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle was associated with increasing K/L grade in the entire sample population, as well as for males and females separately (regression coefficient = 0.10-0.12, all P < 0.001). For the lateral condyle, there was no statistically significant association between cartilage thickness and OA (either presence of OA or K/L grade). CONCLUSIONS: Cartilage thickness at the non-weight-bearing posterior aspect of the medial condyle, but not of the lateral condyle, was increased in OA knees compared to non-OA knees. Furthermore, cartilage thickness at the posterior aspect of the medial condyle increased with increasing K/L grade.

Clinical activity of ipilimumab for metastatic uveal melanoma: a retrospective review of the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Massachusetts General Hospital, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, and University Hospital of Lausanne experience.

BACKGROUND: Uveal melanoma exhibits a high incidence of metastases; and, to date, there is no systemic therapy that clearly improves outcomes. The anticytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (anti-CTLA-4) antibody ipilimumab is a standard of care for metastatic melanoma; however, the clinical activity of CTLA-4 inhibition in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma is poorly defined. METHODS: To assess ipilimumab in this setting, the authors performed a multicenter, retrospective analysis of 4 hospitals in the United States and Europe. Clinical characteristics, toxicities, and radiographic disease burden, as determined by central, blinded radiology review, were evaluated. RESULTS: Thirty-nine patients with uveal melanoma were identified, including 34 patients who received 3 mg/kg ipilimumab and 5 who received 10 mg/kg ipilimumab. Immune-related response criteria and modified World Health Organization criteria were used to assess the response rate (RR) and the combined response plus stable disease (SD) rate after 12 weeks, after 23 weeks, and overall (median follow-up, 50.4 weeks [12.6 months]). At week 12, the RR was 2.6%, and the response plus SD rate was 46.%; at week 23, the RR was 2.6%, and the response plus SD rate was 28.2%. There was 1 complete response and 1 late partial response (at 100 weeks after initial SD) for an immune-related RR of 5.1%. Immune-related adverse events were observed in 28 patients (71.8%) and included 7 (17.9%) grade 3 and 4 events. Immune-related adverse events were more frequent in patients who received 10 mg/kg ipilimumab than in those who received 3 mg/kg ipilimumab. The median overall survival from the first dose of ipilimumab was 9.6 months (95% confidence interval, 6.3-13.4 months; range, 1.6-41.6 months). Performance status, lactate dehydrogenase level, and an absolute lymphocyte count ≥ 1000 cells/μL at week 7 were associated significantly with survival. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicenter, retrospective analysis of 4 hospitals in the United States and Europe of patients with uveal melanoma, durable responses to ipilimumab and manageable toxicity were observed.

Clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement for knee osteoarthritis: results from a large, 3-year, prospective EULAR study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine clinical and ultrasonographic predictors of joint replacement surgery across Europe in primary osteoarthritis (OA) of the knee. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of a painful OA knee cohort (from a EULAR-sponsored, multicentre study). All subjects had clinical evaluation, radiographs and ultrasonography (US) at study entry. The rate of knee replacement surgery over the 3-year follow-up period was determined using Kaplan-Meier survival data analyses. Predictive factors for joint replacement were identified by univariate log-rank test then multivariate analysis using a Cox proportional-hazards regression model. Potential baseline predictors included demographic, clinical, radiographic and US features. RESULTS: Of the 600 original patients, 531 (88.5%), mean age 67+/-10 years, mean disease duration 6.1+/-6.9 years, had follow-up data and were analysed. During follow-up (median 3 years; range 0-4 years), knee replacement was done or required for 94 patients (estimated event rate of 17.7%). In the multivariate analysis, predictors of joint replacement were as follows: Kellgren and Lawrence radiographic grade (grade &gt; or =III vs &lt;III, hazards ratio (HR) = 4.08 (95% CI 2.34 to 7.12), p&lt;0.0001); ultrasonographic knee effusion (&gt; or =4 mm vs &lt;4 mm) (HR = 2.63 (95% CI 1.70 to 4.06), p&lt;0.0001); knee pain intensity on a 0-100 mm visual analogue scale (&gt; or =60 vs &lt;60) (HR = 1.81 (95% CI 1.15 to 2.83), p=0.01) and disease duration (&gt; or =5 years vs &lt;5 years) (HR=1.63 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.47), p=0.02). Clinically detected effusion and US synovitis were not associated with joint replacement in the univariate analysis. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal evaluation of this OA cohort demonstrated significant progression to joint replacement. In addition to severity of radiographic damage and pain, US-detected effusion was a predictor of subsequent joint replacement.

Pre-play communication and credibility: A test of Aumann's conjecture

The effectiveness of pre-play communication in achieving efficientoutcomes has long been a subject of controversy. In some environments,cheap talk may help to achieve coordination. However, Aumannconjectures that, in a variant of the Stag Hunt game, a signal forefficient play is not self-enforcing and concludes that an "agreementto play [the efficient outcome] conveys no information about what theplayers will do." Harsanyi and Selten (1988) cite this example as anillustration of risk-dominance vs. payoff-dominance. Farrell and Rabin(1996) agree with the logic, but suspect that cheap talk willnonetheless achieve efficiency. The conjecture is tested with one-waycommunication. When the sender first chooses a signal and then anaction, there is impressive coordination: a 94% probability for thepotentially efficient (but risky) play, given a signal for efficientplay. Without communication, efforts to achieve efficiency wereunsuccessful, as the proportion of B moves is only 35%. I also test ahypothesis that the order of the action and the signal affects theresults, finding that the decision order is indeed important. WhileAumann s conjecture is behaviorally disconfirmed when the signal isdetermined initially, the signal s credibility seems to be much moresuspect when the sender is known to have first chosen an action, andthe results are not statistically distinguishable from those whenthere is no signal. Some applications and issues in communication andcoordination are discussed.

Evolution at Two Levels in Fire Ants: The Relationship between Patterns of Gene Expression and Protein Sequence Evolution.

Variation in protein sequence and gene expression each contribute to phenotypic diversity, and may be subject to similar selective pressures. Eusocial insects are particularly useful for investigating the evolutionary link between protein sequence and condition-dependent patterns of gene expression because gene expression plays a central role in determining differences between eusocial insect sexes and castes. We investigated the relationship between protein coding sequence evolution and gene expression patterns in the fire ants Solenopsis invicta, S. richteri, and their hybrids to gain greater insight into how selection jointly operates on gene expression and coding sequence. We found that genes with high expression variability within castes and sexes were frequently differentially expressed between castes and sexes, as well as between species and hybrids. These results indicate that genes showing high variation in expression in one context also tend to show high variation in expression in other contexts. Our analyses further revealed that variation in both intra- and interspecific gene expression was positively associated with rate of protein sequence evolution in Solenopsis. This suggests that selective constraints on a gene operate both at the level of protein sequence and at the level of gene expression regulation. Overall, our study provides one of the strongest demonstrations that selective constraints mediate both protein sequence evolution and gene expression variability across different biological contexts and timescales.

Mutant prominin 1 found in patients with macular degeneration disrupts photoreceptor disk morphogenesis in mice.

Familial macular degeneration is a clinically and genetically heterogeneous group of disorders characterized by progressive central vision loss. Here we show that an R373C missense mutation in the prominin 1 gene (PROM1) causes 3 forms of autosomal-dominant macular degeneration. In transgenic mice expressing R373C mutant human PROM1, both mutant and endogenous PROM1 were found throughout the layers of the photoreceptors, rather than at the base of the photoreceptor outer segments, where PROM1 is normally localized. Moreover, the outer segment disk membranes were greatly overgrown and misoriented, indicating defective disk morphogenesis. Immunoprecipitation studies showed that PROM1 interacted with protocadherin 21 (PCDH21), a photoreceptor-specific cadherin, and with actin filaments, both of which play critical roles in disk membrane morphogenesis. Collectively, our results identify what we believe to be a novel complex involved in photoreceptor disk morphogenesis and indicate a possible role for PROM1 and PCDH21 in macular degeneration.