Advancing polar prediction capabilities on daily to seasonal time scales

It is argued that existing polar prediction systems do not yet meet users’ needs; and possible ways forward in advancing prediction capacity in polar regions and beyond are outlined. The polar regions have been attracting more and more attention in recent years, fuelled by the perceptible impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Polar climate change provides new opportunities, such as shorter shipping routes between Europe and East Asia, but also new risks such as the potential for industrial accidents or emergencies in ice-covered seas. Here, it is argued that environmental prediction systems for the polar regions are less developed than elsewhere. There are many reasons for this situation, including the polar regions being (historically) lower priority, with less in situ observations, and with numerous local physical processes that are less well-represented by models. By contrasting the relative importance of different physical processes in polar and lower latitudes, the need for a dedicated polar prediction effort is illustrated. Research priorities are identified that will help to advance environmental polar prediction capabilities. Examples include an improvement of the polar observing system; the use of coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean models, even for short-term prediction; and insight into polar-lower latitude linkages and their role for forecasting. Given the enormity of some of the challenges ahead, in a harsh and remote environment such as the polar regions, it is argued that rapid progress will only be possible with a coordinated international effort. More specifically, it is proposed to hold a Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) from mid-2017 to mid-2019 in which the international research and operational forecasting community will work together with stakeholders in a period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and educational activities.

Toxoplasma gondii in the peripheral blood of patients with acute and chronic toxoplasmosis

Background and aims Toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis may recur months or years after the primary infection. Rupture of dormant cysts in the retina is the accepted hypothesis to explain recurrence. Here, the authors present evidence supporting the presence of Toxoplasma gondii in the peripheral blood of immunocompetent patients. Methods Direct observation by light microscopy and by immunofluorescence assay was performed, and results were confirmed by PCR amplification of parasite DNA. Results The authors studied 20 patients from Erechim, Brazil, including acute infected patients, patients with recurrent active toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis, patients with old toxoplasmic retinal scars, and patients with circulating IgG antibodies against T gondii and absence of ocular lesions. Blood samples were analysed, and T gondii was found in the blood of acutely and chronically infected patients regardless of toxoplasmic retinochoroiditis. Conclusions The results indicate that the parasite may circulate in the blood of immunocompetent individuals and that parasitaemia could be associated with the reactivation of the ocular disease.

Hematologically important mutations: X-linked chronic granulomatous disease (third update)

Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is an immunodeficiency disorder affecting about 1 in 250,000 individuals. The disease is caused by a lack of superoxide production by the leukocyte enzyme NADPH oxidase. Superoxide is used to kill phagocytosed micro-organisms in neutrophils, eosinophils, monocytes and macrophages. The leukocyte NADPH oxidase is composed of five subunits, of which the enzymatic component is gp91-phox, also called Nox2. This protein is encoded by the CYBB gene on the X chromosome. Mutations in this gene are found in about 70% of all CGD patients. This article lists all mutations identified in CYBB in the X-linked form of CGD. Moreover, apparently benign polymorphisms in CYBB are also given, which should facilitate the recognition of future disease-causing mutations. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the continuity of pullback attractors for evolution processes

In this paper we give general results on the continuity of pullback attractors for nonlinear evolution processes. We then revisit results of [D. Li, P.E. Kloeden, Equi-attraction and the continuous dependence of pullback attractors on parameters, Stoch. Dyn. 4 (3) (2004) 373-384] which show that, under certain conditions, continuity is equivalent to uniformity of attraction over a range of parameters (""equi-attraction""): we are able to simplify their proofs and weaken the conditions required for this equivalence to hold. Generalizing a classical autonomous result [A.V. Babin, M.I. Vishik, Attractors of Evolution Equations, North Holland, Amsterdam, 1992] we give bounds on the rate of convergence of attractors when the family is uniformly exponentially attracting. To apply these results in a more concrete situation we show that a non-autonomous regular perturbation of a gradient-like system produces a family of pullback attractors that are uniformly exponentially attracting: these attractors are therefore continuous, and we can give an explicit bound on the distance between members of this family. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An extension of the concept of gradient semigroups which is stable under perturbation

In this article we introduce the concept of a gradient-like nonlinear semigroup as an intermediate concept between a gradient nonlinear semigroup (those possessing a Lyapunov function, see [J.K. Hale, Asymptotic Behavior of Dissipative Systems, Math. Surveys Monogr., vol. 25, Amer. Math. Soc., 1989]) and a nonlinear semigroup possessing a gradient-like attractor. We prove that a perturbation of a gradient-like nonlinear semigroup remains a gradient-like nonlinear semigroup. Moreover, for non-autonomous dynamical systems we introduce the concept of a gradient-like evolution process and prove that a non-autonomous perturbation of a gradient-like nonlinear semigroup is a gradient-like evolution process. For gradient-like nonlinear semigroups and evolution processes, we prove continuity, characterization and (pullback and forwards) exponential attraction of their attractors under perturbation extending the results of [A.N. Carvalho, J.A. Langa, J.C. Robinson, A. Suarez, Characterization of non-autonomous attractors of a perturbed gradient system, J. Differential Equations 236 (2007) 570-603] on characterization and of [A.V. Babin, M.I. Vishik, Attractors in Evolutionary Equations, Stud. Math. Appl.. vol. 25, North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1992] on exponential attraction. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations

The main objective of the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” is by the use of a case study test the MFD™-method (Erixon G. , 1998) combined with PMM in a product development project. (Henceforth called MFD™/PMM-method). The MFD™/PMM-method used for documenting and controlling a product development project has since it was introduced been used in several industries and projects. The method has been proved to be a good way of working with the early stages of product development, however, there are almost only projects carried out on large industries which means that there are very few references to how the MFD™/PMM-method works in a small corporation. Therefore, was the case study in the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” carried out in a small corporation to find out whether the MFD™/PMM-method also can be applied and used in such a corporation.The PMM was proposed in a paper presented at Delft University of Technology in Holland 1998 by the author and Gunnar Erixon. (See appended paper C: The chart of modular function deployment.) The title “The chart of modular function deployment” was later renamed as PMM, Product Management Map. (Sweden PreCAD AB, 2000). The PMM consists of a QFD-matrix linked to MIM (Module Indication Matrix) via a coupling matrix which makes it possible to make an unbroken chain from the customer domain to the designed product/modules. The PMM makes it easy to correct omissions made in creating new products and modules.In the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” the universal MFD™/PMM-method has been adapted by the author to three models of product development; original-, evolutionary- and incremental development.The evolutionary adapted MFD™/PMM-method was tested as a case study at Atlings AB in the community Ockelbo. Atlings AB is a small corporation with a total number of 50 employees and an annual turnover of 9 million €. The product studied at the corporation was a steady rest for supporting long shafts in turning. The project team consisted of management director, a sales promoter, a production engineer, a design engineer and a workshop technician, the author as team leader and a colleague from Dalarna University as discussion partner. The project team has had six meetings.The project team managed to use MFD™ and to make a complete PMM of the studied product. There were no real problems occurring in the project work, on the contrary the team members worked very well in the group, having ideas how to improve the product. Instead, the challenge for a small company is how to work with the MFD™/PMM-method in the long run! If the MFD™/PMM-method is to be a useful tool for the company it needs to be used continuously and that requires financial and personnel resources. One way for the company to overcome the probable lack of recourses regarding capital and personnel is to establish a good cooperation with a regional university or a development centre.

Report on IEA Task-14 activities on solar collector systems conference in Rome, 25-29 Jan. 1993

The memebers of IEA (International Energy Agency) Task 14 (Advaced Active Solar Systems) met in Rome during January 1993. The latest developments in several countries were presented and discussed during this meeting. This report describes briefly the recent work carried out on small scale systems in the Domestic Hot Water (DHW) working group of Task 14, as reported by the representatives from Canada, Denmark, Germany, Holland and Switzerland. Klaus Lorenz, SERC, attended the meeting as observer and presented our work on small-tube heat exchangers. Several participants expressed their interest. A summary of his presentation is included in this report.

Proceedings from the 2nd seminar on Development of Modular Products : December 13-14, 2004, Campus Framtidsdalen, Dalarna University, Sweden

Companies are focusing on efforts increasing the overall efficiency at the same time as the ability to meet customer needs becomes even more important. There is a need to improve the organisation and the product design at the same time through the visualisation of how a product family design should be performed in order to adapt to customers, company internal issues, and long-term strategy. Therefore, there is a need for qualified personnel in today’s companies with the knowledge of product development and modularity. The graduate course Development of Modular Products at Högskolan Dalarna has the objective to provide such knowledge. As a part of the course, each student will individually perform extensive research within a chosen area with respect to Product Development and Modularity. This proceeding is the result of the students own work and was presented during a two day seminar at Dalarna University. The contents of the papers cover many areas, from the identification of customer needs to cost effective manufacturing, and benefits of modularisation. The reader of this proceeding will not only benefit from many areas within Product Development and Modularity but also from the colour of many cultures. In this proceeding, students from nine countries are represented (Bangladesh, China, Costa Rica, Germany, Holland, India, Luxembourg Nigeria, and Sweden). Enjoy the reading.

Quality management for vital forest tree seedlings : Final report, Project no: P33854-1

The work concerns development of a prototype molecular tests to identify vitality status of conifer seedlings. The work is done by NSure, Holland, Dalarna University and SUAS. In case for spruce, a successful validation experiment has been performed to validate the identified frost tolerance and vitality genes. Multiple indicators were identified that can be used to either reinforce the existing ColdnSure test, but also for development of a vitality test. The identified frost tolerance and vitality genes for pine still need to be validated. NSure together with Dalarna University aim to perform a validation next season. Multiple LN indicators were identified in spruce that can be used to determine the effectiveness of a LN treatment, but they are not yet validated. In spruce and pine hardly any scientific research is performed to study the effect of a LN treatment, particularly not at molecular level. Therefore NSure together with Dalarna Research Station want to apply for a project. Within this project, we would be able to develop the tests further.

The First Provenance Challenge

The first Provenance Challenge was set up in order to provide a forum for the community to understand the capabilities of different provenance systems and the expressiveness of their provenance representations. To this end, a Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging workflow was defined, which participants had to either simulate or run in order to produce some provenance representation, from which a set of identified queries had to be implemented and executed. Sixteen teams responded to the challenge, and submitted their inputs. In this paper, we present the challenge workflow and queries, and summarise the participants contributions.

Sinalização de política monetária e movimentos na estrutura a termo da taxa de juros no Brasil

O objetivo deste artigo é examinar como as decisões de taxa de juros básica no Brasil (um forte mecanismo de sinalização em política monetária) afetam a estrutura a termo da curva de juros. Diferentemente de outros trabalhos sobre o caso brasileiro, este avalia a evolução da previsibilidade das decisões de política monetária após a introdução do regime de metas de inflação e, também, compara esta evolução com outros países. A metodologia utilizada é um estudo de eventos em 2 períodos distintos: entre jan/2000 e ago/2003, após a introdução do regime de metas de inflação, e entre set/2003 e jul/2008, quando o regime de metas atinge certa maturidade. Os resultados indicam que: 1) os efeitos surpresa na curva de juros estão menores; 2) o poder explicativo das ações de política monetária aumentou; 3) o mercado tem efetuado o ajuste das expectativas de decisão sobre a taxa de juros com antecedência de 3 dias; 4) a previsibilidade e transparência das decisões de política monetária no Brasil aumentaram e estão próximas daquelas observadas nos EUA e Alemanha e superiores ao caso italiano e britânico.

Basiléia II e exigência de capital para risco de crédito dos bancos no Brasil

Com a implementação do Acordo de Basiléia II no Brasil, os grandes conglomerados bancários poderão utilizar o chamado modelo IRB (Internal Ratings Based) para cômputo da parcela de risco de crédito da exigência de capital. O objetivo deste trabalho é mensurar a diferença entre o capital mínimo exigido (e, conseqüentemente, do Índice de Basiléia) calculado pela abordagem IRB em relação à regulamentação atual. Para isso, foram estimadas probabilidades de inadimplência (PD) utilizando matrizes de transição construídas a partir dos dados da Central de Risco de Crédito (SCR) do Banco Central do Brasil. Os resultados indicam aumento da exigência de capital, ao contrário do ocorrido nos países do G-10