Kysynnän ennustaminen leipomotuotteille ja ennusteen tarkkuuden arviointi

Tässä diplomityössä tutkittiin kysynnän ennustamista Vaasan & Vaasan Oy:n tuotteille. Ensin työssä perehdyttiin ennustamiseen ja sen tarjoamiin mahdollisuuksiin yrityksessä. Erityisesti kysynnän ennustamisesta saatavat hyödyt käytiin läpi. Kysynnän ennustamisesta haettiin ratkaisua erityisesti ongelmiin työvuorosuunnittelussa.Työssä perehdyttiin ennustemenetelmiin liittyvään kirjallisuuteen, jonka oppien perusteella tehtiin koe-ennustuksia yrityksen kysynnän historiadatan avulla. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin kuudelle eri Turun leipomon koe-tuotteelle. Ennustettavana aikavälinä oli kahden viikon päiväkohtainen kysyntä. Tämän aikavälin erityisesti peruskysynnälle etsittiin ennustetarkkuudeltaan parasta kvantitatiivista ennustemenetelmää. Koe-ennustuksia tehtiin liukuvilla keskiarvoilla, klassisella aikasarja-analyysillä, eksponentiaalisen tasoituksen menetelmällä, Holtin lineaarisella eksponenttitasoituksen menetelmällä, Wintersin kausittaisella eksponentiaalisella tasoituksella, autoregressiivisillä malleilla, Box-Jenkinsin menetelmällä ja regressioanalyysillä. Myös neuroverkon opettamista historiadatalla ja käyttämistä ongelman ratkaisun apuna kokeiltiin.Koe-ennustuksien tulosten perusteella ennustemenetelmien toimintaa analysoitiin jatkokehitystä varten. Ennustetarkkuuden lisäksi arvioitiin mallin yksinkertaisuutta, helppokäyttöisyyttä ja sopivuutta yrityksen monien tuotteiden ennustamiseen. Myös kausivaihteluihin, trendeihin ja erikoispäiviin kiinnitettiin huomiota. Ennustetarkkuuden huomattiin parantuvan selvästi peruskysyntää ennustettaessa, jos ensin historiadata esikäsittelemällä puhdistettiin erikoispäivistä ja –viikoista.

Mikrozystisches Makulaödem bei Optikusatrophie: eine Fallserie Microcystic Macular Edema in Optic Nerve Atrophy: A Case Series.

Background:Microcystic macular edema can occur after optic neuropathies of various etiologies, and is easily demonstrated by OCT. We report a cohort of patients with microcystic macular edema. Patients and Methods: All patients with optic neuropathy and microcystic macular edema were enrolled. Demographics, visual function, retinal angiographies and OCT parameters were studied. Results: Nineteen patients (23 eyes) exhibited microcystic macular edema: 10 men/9 women, aged 17-91 years. Etiologies of optic nerve atrophy were compressive (5), inflammatory (4), glaucoma (3), ischemic (3), trauma (2), degenerative (1), and hereditary (1). Median visual acuity was 4/10 (NLP-12/10). Fluorescein angiography showed no leakage. Topography of the microcystic macular edema correlated with near infrared images but with visual field defects in only 26 %. OCT parameters were all abnormal. Conclusions: Microcystic macular edema is a non-specific manifestation from an optic neuropathy of any etiology. The precise mechanism leading to microcystic macular edema remains unknown but trans-synaptic retrograde degeneration with Müller cells dysfunction is likely. Zusammenfassung Hintergrund: Das mikrozystische Makulaödem kann im Rahmen einer Optikusatrophie jeglicher Ätiologie auftreten und ist leicht mit dem OCT zu erkennen. Wir berichten über eine Patientenkohorte mit mikrozystischem Makulaödem. Patienten und Methoden: Alle Patienten mit einer Optikusneuropathie und einem mikrozystischen Makulaödem wurden in diese Studie eingeschlossen. Die Demografie, die Sehfunktion, die Netzhautangiografie und die OCT-Parameter wurden untersucht. Ergebnisse: Neunzehn Patienten (23 Augen) hatten ein mikrozystisches Makulaödem: 10 Männer/9 Frauen im Alter von 17 bis 91 Jahren. Die Ursachen der Optikusatrophie waren Kompressionen (5), Entzündungen (4), Glaukom (3), Ischämien (3), Traumata (2), Degenerationen (1) und genetisch (1). Der mittlere Visus war 0,4 (keine Lichtwahrnehmung 1,2). In der Fluoreszenzangiografie fand sich keine Leckage. Das OCT des mikrozystischen Makulaödems korrelierte immer mit den Infrarot-Bildern (Nahaufnahme), jedoch nur in 26 % mit den Gesichtsfelddefekten. Alle OCT-Parameter waren abnormal. Schlussfolgerungen: Das mikrozystische Makulaödem ist eine unspezifische Manifestation einer Optikusneuropathie jeglicher Ätiologie. Der genaue Mechanismus, der zu einem mikrozystischen Makulaödem führt, ist unbekannt, eine trans-synaptische retrograde Degeneration mit Dysfunktion der Müller-Zellen ist jedoch wahrscheinlich.

Integrating Socket Server to the Workstation Environment of Series 40 Platform

Shortening development times of mobile phones are also accelerating the development times of mobile phone software. New features and software components should be partially implemented and tested before the actual hardware is ready. This brings challenges to software development and testing environments, especially on the user interface side. New features should be able to be tested in an environment, which has a look and feel like a real phone. Simulation environments are used to model real mobile phones. This makes possible to execute software in a mobile phone that does not yet exist. The purpose of this thesis is to integrate Socket Server software component to Series 40 simulation environments on Linux and Windows platforms. Socket Server provides TCP/IP connectivity for applications. All other software and hardware components below Socket Server do not exist in simulation environments. The scope of this work is to clarify how that can be done without connectivity problems, including design, implementation and testing phases.

Phylogeny and biogeography of Primula sect. Armerina: implications for plant evolution under climate change and the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

BACKGROUND: The historical orogenesis and associated climatic changes of mountain areas have been suggested to partly account for the occurrence of high levels of biodiversity and endemism. However, their effects on dispersal, differentiation and evolution of many groups of plants are still unknown. In this study, we examined the detailed diversification history of Primula sect. Armerina, and used biogeographic analysis and macro-evolutionary modeling to investigate a series of different questions concerning the evolution of the geographical and ecological distribution of the species in this section. RESULTS: We sequenced five chloroplast and one nuclear genes for species of Primula sect. Armerina. Neither chloroplast nor nuclear trees support the monophyly of the section. The major incongruences between the two trees occur among closely related species and may be explained by hybridization. Our dating analyses based on the chloroplast dataset suggest that this section began to diverge from its relatives around 3.55 million years ago, largely coinciding with the last major uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Biogeographic analysis supports the origin of the section in the Himalayan Mountains and dispersal from the Himalayas to Northeastern QTP, Western QTP and Hengduan Mountains. Furthermore, evolutionary models of ecological niches show that the two P. fasciculata clades have significantly different climatic niche optima and rates of niche evolution, indicating niche evolution under climatic changes and further providing evidence for explaining their biogeographic patterns. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that geologic and climatic events play important roles in driving biological diversification of organisms in the QTP area. The Pliocene uplift of the QTP and following climatic changes most likely promoted both the inter- and intraspecific divergence of Primula sect. Armerina. This study also illustrates how niche evolution under climatic changes influences biogeographic patterns.

Contrast : a concept in language and its development in Medieval Spanish

The purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate a semantic relation present in the connection of sentences (more specifically: propositional units). This relation, which we refer to as contrast, includes the traditional categories of adversatives - predominantly represented by the connector but in English and pero in Modern Spanish - and concessives, prototypically verbalised through although / aunque. The aim is to describe, analyse and - as far as possible - to explain the emergence and evolution of different syntactic schemes marking contrast during the first three centuries of Spanish (also referred to as Castilian) as a literary language, i.e., from the 13th to the 15th century. The starting point of this question is a commonplace in syntax, whereby the semantic and syntactic complexity of clause linkage correlates with the degree of textual elaboration. In historical linguistics, i.e., applied to the phylogeny of a language, it is commonly referred to as the parataxis hypothesis A crucial part of the thesis is dedicated by the definition of contrast as a semantic relation. Although the label contrast has been used in this sense, mainly in functional grammar and text linguistics, mainstream grammaticography and linguistics remain attached to the traditional categories adversatives and concessives. In opposition to this traditional view, we present our own model of contrast, based on a pragma-semantic description proposed for the analysis of adversatives by Oswald Ducrot and subsequently adopted by Ekkehard König for the analysis of concessives. We refine and further develop this model in order for it to accommodate all, not just the prototypical instances of contrast in Spanish, arguing that the relationship between adversatives and concessives is a marked opposition, i.e., that the higher degree of semantic and syntactic integration of concessives restricts some possible readings that the adversatives may have, but that this difference is almost systematically neutralised by contextual factors, thus justifying the assumption of contrast as a comprehensive onomasiological category. This theoretical focus is completed by a state-of-the-question overview attempting to account for all relevant forms in which contrast is expressed in Medieval Spanish, with the aid of lexicographic and grammaticographical sources, and an empirical study investigating the expression of corpus in a corpus study on the textual functions of contrast in nine Medieval Spanish texts: Cantar de Mio Cid, Libro de Alexandre, Milagros de Nuestra Sehora, Estoria de Espana, Primera Partida, Lapidario, Libro de buen amor, Conde Lucanor, and Corbacho. This corpus is analysed using quantitative and qualitative tools, and the study is accompanied by a series of methodological remarks on how to investigate a pragma-semantic category in historical linguistics. The corpus study shows that the parataxis hypothesis fails to prove from a statistical viewpoint, although a qualitative analysis shows that the use of subordination does increase over time in some particular contexts.

Translations and Translators of English-language Literature in Catalan Literary Publications and Series between 1868 and 1910

Translations into Catalan of English and American authors during the final quarter of the nineteenth century are few and far between. Numerically, English-language literature most likely ranks fifth or sixth among all the translations of this period. We take inventory here of translations found in Catalan magazines from this time (the oldest dates from 1868) and in published series that came out at this time (if these continued until later, we trace them up to their final year). At the same time, the translators are examined, including reference, where available, as to whether the translations are direct or indirect. Finally, we consider some possible causes for the low English-language volume in Catalan translation during the period.

Historical trends of organochlorine pesticides in a sediment core from the Gulf of Batabanó, Cuba.

Sediments can be natural archives to reconstruct the history of pollutant inputs into coastal areas. This is important to improve management strategies and evaluate the success of pollution control measurements. In this work, the vertical distribution of organochlorine pesticides (DDTs, Lindane, HCB, Heptachlor, Aldrin and Mirex) was determined in a sediment core collected from the Gulf of Batabanó, Cuba, which was dated by using the (210)Pb dating method and validated with the (239,240)Pu fallout peak. Results showed significant changes in sediment accumulation during the last 40 years: recent mass accumulation rates (0.321 g cm(-2) yr(-1)) double those estimated before 1970 (0.15 g cm(-2) yr(-1)). This change matches closely land use change in the region (intense deforestation and regulation of the Colon River in the late 1970s). Among pesticides, only DDTs isomers, Lindane and HCB were detected, and ranged from 0.029 to 0.374 ng g(-1) dw for DDTs, from<0.006 to 0.05 ng g(-1) dw for Lindane and from<0.04 to 0.134 ng g(-1) dw for HCB. Heptachlor, Aldrin and Mirex were below the detection limits (∼0.003 ng g(-1)), indicating that these compounds had a limited application in the Coloma watershed. Pesticide contamination was evident since the 1970s. DDTs and HCB records showed that management strategies, namely the banning the use of organochlorine contaminants, led to a concentration decline. However, Lindane, which was restricted in 1990, can still be found in the watershed. According to NOAA guidelines, pesticides concentrations encountered in these sediments are low and probably not having an adverse effect on sediment dwelling organisms.

The Spanish Infrastructure Stock, 1844-1935

This paper presents the first estimates of Spanish infrastructure stock and investment for the period 1845-1935. Several sources and techniques have been used in the estimation, and the new series are reasonably reliable to the standards of historical statistics. Two distinct periods may be distinguished in the series: the years before 1895 (characterized by the prominence of railroads) and the period 1895-1935 (when most investment was addressed to other assets). The new series allow a preliminary comparison of the Spanish infrastructure endowment with that of the most advanced countries, showing a gradual process of convergence before 1936.

Value at Risk in measuring market risk: Historical simulation

In this study the theoretical part was created to make comparison between different Value at Risk models. Based on that comparison one model was chosen to the empirical part which concentrated to find out whether the model is accurate to measure market risk. The purpose of this study was to test if Volatility-weighted Historical Simulation is accurate in measuring market risk and what improvements does it bring to market risk measurement compared to traditional Historical Simulation. Volatility-weighted method by Hull and White (1998) was chosen In order to improve the traditional methods capability to measure market risk. In this study we found out that result based on Historical Simulation are dependent on chosen time period, confidence level and how samples are weighted. The findings of this study are that we cannot say that the chosen method is fully reliable in measuring market risk because back testing results are changing during the time period of this study.

Mesoscale numerical analysis of the historical November 1982 heavy precipitation event over Andorra (Eastern Pyrenees)

From 6 to 8 November 1982 one of the most catastrophic flash-flood events was recorded in the Eastern Pyrenees affecting Andorra and also France and Spain with rainfall accumulations exceeding 400 mm in 24 h, 44 fatalities and widespread damage. This paper aims to exhaustively document this heavy precipitation event and examines mesoscale simulations performed by the French Meso-NH non-hydrostatic atmospheric model. Large-scale simulations show the slow-evolving synoptic environment favourable for the development of a deep Atlantic cyclone which induced a strong southerly flow over the Eastern Pyrenees. From the evolution of the synoptic pattern four distinct phases have been identified during the event. The mesoscale analysis presents the second and the third phase as the most intense in terms of rainfall accumulations and highlights the interaction of the moist and conditionally unstable flows with the mountains. The presence of a SW low level jet (30 m s-1) around 1500 m also had a crucial role on focusing the precipitation over the exposed south slopes of the Eastern Pyrenees. Backward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line passive tracers indicate that the orographic uplift was the main forcing mechanism which triggered and maintained the precipitating systems more than 30 h over the Pyrenees. The moisture of the feeding flow mainly came from the Atlantic Ocean (7-9 g kg-1) and the role of the Mediterranean as a local moisture source was very limited (2-3 g kg-1) due to the high initial water vapour content of the parcels and the rapid passage over the basin along the Spanish Mediterranean coast (less than 12 h).

Which Fungus Originally was Trichophyton mentagrophytes? Historical Review and Illustration by a Clinical Case.

Several dermatophytes producing numerous pyriform or round microconidia were called Trichophyton mentagrophytes. Among these dermatophytes are the teleomorph species Arthroderma benhamiae, Arthroderma vanbreuseghemii and Arthroderma simii, and other species such as Trichophyton interdigitale, Trichophyton erinacei and Trichophyton quinckeanum for which only the anamorph is known. Confusion exists about which fungus should be really called T. mentagrophytes and about the rational use of this name in practice. We report a case of beard ringworm (tinea barbae) with A. vanbreuseghemii. According to both clinical signs and the type of hair parasitism, this case was exactly compatible to the first description of a non-favic dermatophytosis by Gruby under the name of "mentagrophyte" from which was derived the dermatophyte epithet mentagrophytes. In addition, the phenotypic characters of the isolated fungus in cultures perfectly matched with those of the first description of a dermatophyte under T. mentagrophytes by Blanchard (Parasites animaux et parasites végétaux à l'exclusion des Bactéries, Masson, Paris, 1896). In conclusion, T. mentagrophytes corresponds to the fungus later named A. vanbreuseghemii. However, because the neotype of T. mentagrophytes was not adequately designated in regard to the ancient literature, we would privilege the use of A. vanbreuseghemii and abandon the name of T. mentagrophytes.

Intraosseous migration of tendinous calcifications: cortical erosions, subcortical migration and extensive intramedullary diffusion, a SIMS series.

Calcium hydroxyapatite crystal deposition is a common disorder, which sometimes causes acute pain as calcifications dissolve and migrate into adjacent soft tissue. Intraosseous calcium penetration has also been described. We illustrate the appearance of these lesions using a series of 35 cases compiled by members of the French Society of Musculoskeletal Imaging (Société d'Imagerie Musculo-Squelettique, SIMS). The first group in our series (7 cases) involved calcification-related cortical erosions of the humeral and femoral diaphyses, in particular at the pectoralis major and gluteus maximus insertions. A second group (28 cases) involved the presence of calcium material in subcortical areas. The most common site was the greater tubercle of the humerus, accompanying a calcifying tendinopathy of the supraspinatus. In addition, an extensive intramedullary diffusion of calcium deposits was observed in four of these cases, associated with cortical erosion in one case and subcortical lesions in three cases. Cortical erosions and intraosseous migration of calcifications associated with calcific tendinitis may be confused with neoplasm or infection. It is important to recognize atypical presentations of hydroxyapatite deposition to avoid unnecessary investigation or surgery.

AA amyloidosis treated with tocilizumab: case series and updated literature review.

BACKGROUND: In published case reports, tocilizumab (TCZ) has shown good efficacy for AA amyloidosis in almost all patients. We investigated the efficacy and safety of TCZ in AA amyloidosis in a multicentre study of unselected cases. METHODS: We e-mailed rheumatology and internal medicine departments in France, Switzerland and North Africa by using the Club Rhumatismes Inflammation (CRI) network and the French TCZ registry, Registry RoAcTEmra (REGATE), to gather data on consecutive patients with histologically proven AA amyloidosis who had received at least one TCZ infusion. Efficacy was defined as a sustained decrease in proteinuria level and/or stable or improved glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and by TCZ maintenance. RESULTS: We collected 12 cases of AA amyloidosis treated with TCZ as monotherapy (mean age of patients 63 ± 16.2 years, amyloidosis duration 20.6 ± 31.3 months): eight patients had rheumatoid arthritis (RA), six with previous failure of anti-tumor necrosis factor α (anti-TNF-α) therapy. In total, 11 patients had renal involvement, with two already on hemodialysis (not included in the renal efficacy assessment). For the nine other patients, baseline GFR and proteinuria level were 53.6 ± 32.8 mL/min and 5 ± 3.3 g/24 h, respectively. The mean follow-up was 13.1 ± 11 months. TCZ was effective for six of the eight RA patients (87.5%) according to European League Against Rheumatism response criteria (four good and two moderate responders). As expected, C-reactive protein (CRP) level decreased with treatment for 11 patients. Renal amyloidosis (n = 9) progressed in three patients and was stabilized in three. Overall, three patients showed improvement, with sustained decrease in proteinuria level (42%, 82% and 96%). Baseline CRP level was higher in subsequent responders to TCZ than other patients (p = 0.02). Among the six RA patients with previous anti-TNF-α therapy, amyloidosis was ameliorated in one and stabilized in three. Three serious adverse events occurred (two diverticulitis and one major calciphylaxia due to renal failure). Finally, 7 of 12 (58%) patients continued TCZ. CONCLUSIONS: The efficacy of TCZ for AA amyloidosis varies depending on the inflammatory status at treatment onset. Discrepancies between our study of unselected consecutive patients and reported cases may be due to publication bias. These results support further prospective trials of TCZ for AA amyloidosis.