National Identity in Lithuania: Processes During the Period of Changes

Under the conditions of rapid and total change in the social, political, economic and legal environment in Lithuania, a re-orientation process is going on in all groups of society. In this process, not only younger but also middle-aged and old people become adherents to what Ms. Liubiniene calls the new, "post-materialist" values, strongly reinforced by powerful agents of socialisation originating in the West, like the media, advertising agencies and lifestyle-consumption models. As a result, the national identity of Lithuania and its inhabitants is being reconstructed. Ms. Liubiniene set out to examine the details of this evolving identity by conducting a survey of 1218 university staff and students. Her conclusions are set out in a 74 page manuscript, written in Lithuanian and available on disc. Change is most noticeable among the young. Indeed, time and time again, Ms. Liubiniene was to find that the age of 36 marks a natural watershed, with, for instance, the younger group valuing individualism highly and the older, collectivism. Ms. Liubiniene ventures to suggest that traditional values are deeply rooted amongst elderly people, women and people with an education in the humanities. Young people on the other hand, and especially those with a professional orientation towards business are more open to change and ready to adapt to new values. Turning to the evaluation of national symbols, Ms. Liubinie finds that those with an education in the humanities might be considered to be the most traditional, placing greater value on the symbols of nature, ethnic culture and religion. Folk songs and the crucifix are also in their top ten. Respondents with a technical education favour symbols of statehood and nature, and respondents with a business orientation assign greater value to the symbols of nature, history, sports and statehood. Ms. Liubinie concludes that the group of respondents most active and ready to adapt to new things is composed of young males of a business orientation. Generally the national identity of the young is weaker compared to that of the old. In the future, the combination of the evolution of values and the process of inter-generational replacement allows us to predict a weakening of the sense of national identity, or at least its transformation into something radically different to what it is today.

Civil Society and Political Parties in the Period of Transition

The major aim of Mr. Marada's project was to investigate the role of political parties on the one hand, and various institutional forms of civil society on the other, in the process of establishing mechanisms of political decision-making and policy-formation in Czechoslovakia and the Czech Republic, after November 1989. Mr. Marada wanted to examine what consequences the interplay and tensions between political parties and institutions of civil society had on the status and practical understanding of citizenship and civil society. At the beginning of his research Mr. Marada found that, while the sphere of the political was relatively clearly defined, the phenomenon of civil society required a conceptual clarification. He devoted a great deal of time to analysing the emergence, development, and disintegration of Civic Forum as the major agent of the regime change and subsequent political reforms. Alongside this analysis is a commentary on Czech society in general, drawing on established research to show how, as yet, a kind of civic incompetence reigns within the country, and how this situation has its roots in the belief, promoted by politicians themselves, that politics is an activity for experts only. The final outcome of his research took the form of a series of articles, in English, totalling 40 pages.

The Monumental Barrows of the Period 700-1100 AD at the Russian North-West

Nicholas Petrov. The Monumental Barrows of the Period 700-11 AD in the Russian North-West The research deals with the monumental barrows erected in the Russian north-west in the period of 700-1100 AD, which Russian archaeological literature has traditionally named sopka-barrows. These sopka-barrows were analysed as original sacral and funeral structures and considered in the context of cultural processes under way in that region at the time. The position occupied by the sopka-barrows in the culture of the people who erected them was reconstructed on the basis of a synthesis of various kinds of sources - archaeological, written, folklore. The high barrows are not in fact a determining type of the sites of the so-called "culture of the sopka-barrows" in modern literature, which focuses rather on settlements near to which sopka-barrows are absent. Recent excavations have revealed the presence of "surface" burial places (cremation located on the top of the barrow repeatedly rather than only once) in the majority of the sopka-barrows. The materials only provide evidence about the sacrificial nature of the graves in the "body" of the sopka-barrows. They thus offer an embodiment of one element of the widespread views about the dead man's path to the world of the dead (mountain) which is traced in folklore texts. Special attention was paid to the question of the disappearance of the tradition of erecting sopka-barrows and to the nature of their role in the culture of the region during the period 1000-1200 AD. The functioning of the sopka-barrows as funeral monuments in the second millennium AD is also traced on the inlet inhumatios found in them.

Changing Values in a Transitional Period

This project examined the change in values in the still unfinished transitional period in Serbia during the 1990s and compared it with Greece in the same period. During this period the social and political transition affected the ruling value system primarily through changes in the modes of the production and representation of reality. The most remarkable trait of this period in Serbia is the parallel and interweaving existence of different value systems. The very perception of reality has been blurred by the emergence of a very complex technical and ideological structure. Reality is presented by and through extensions and additions, the models of which are language and media. With the development of media technology and global communication and information systems, representation has become the only available reality. This enables the media to overtly and unlimitedly intervene in reality, to manage and change it without constraint and thus have a direct impact on values. The difference between public and private is abolished, so the media start promoting exclusive collective values. However, since the collective thus loses its counterpart, it itself needs to be redefined. This confusion of values make the possible results of their change uncertain. It will either open up a space for multiculturalism and social pluralism and thus completely replace the old systems of values, or result in an indefinite survival of different, often contradictory, value systems and conceptions of reality, which often lead to all forms of exclusivity and intolerance.

The origin of the European Medieval Warm Period"

Proxy records and results of a three dimensional climate model show that European summer temperatures roughly a millennium ago were comparable to those of the last 25 years of the 20th century, supporting the existence of a summer "Medieval Warm Period" in Europe. Those two relatively mild periods were separated by a rather cold era, often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Our modelling results suggest that the warm summer conditions during the early second millennium compared to the climate background state of the 13th–18th century are due to a large extent to the long term cooling induced by changes in land-use in Europe. During the last 200 years, the effect of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, which was partly levelled off by that of sulphate aerosols, has dominated the climate history over Europe in summer. This induces a clear warming during the last 200 years, allowing summer temperature during the last 25 years to reach back the values simulated for the early second millennium. Volcanic and solar forcing plays a weaker role in this comparison between the last 25 years of the 20th century and the early second millennium. Our hypothesis appears consistent with proxy records but modelling results have to be weighted against the existing uncertainties in the external forcing factors, in particular related to land-use changes, and against the uncertainty of the regional climate sensitivity. Evidence for winter is more equivocal than for summer. The forced response in the model displays a clear temperature maximum at the end of the 20th century. However, the uncertainties are too large to state that this period is the warmest of the past millennium in Europe during winter.

The Impact of Uncertainty in the AIDS Incubation Period on Reconstructions of the HIV Epidemic

Backcalculation is the primary method used to reconstruct past human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection rates, to estimate current prevalence of HIV infection, and to project future incidence of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The method is very sensitive to uncertainty about the incubation period. We estimate incubation distributions from three sets of cohort data and find that the estimates for the cohorts are substantially different. Backcalculations employing the different estimates produce equally good fits to reported AIDS counts but quite different estimates of cumulative infections. These results suggest that the incubation distribution is likely to differ for different populations and that the differences are large enough to have a big impact on the resulting estimates of HIV infection rates. This seriously limits the usefulness of backcalculation for populations (such as intravenous drug users, heterosexuals, and women) that lack precise information on incubation times.

Uncertainty About the Incubation Period of AIDS and its Impact on Backcalculation

We analyze three sets of doubly-censored cohort data on incubation times, estimating incubation distributions using semi-parametric methods and assessing the comparability of the estimates. Weibull models appear to be inappropriate for at least one of the cohorts, and the estimates for the different cohorts are substantially different. We use these estimates as inputs for backcalculation, using a nonparametric method based on maximum penalized likelihood. The different incubations all produce fits to the reported AIDS counts that are as good as the fit from a nonstationary incubation distribution that models treatment effects, but the estimated infection curves are very different. We also develop a method for estimating nonstationarity as part of the backcalculation procedure and find that such estimates also depend very heavily on the assumed incubation distribution. We conclude that incubation distributions are so uncertain that meaningful error bounds are difficult to place on backcalculated estimates and that backcalculation may be too unreliable to be used without being supplemented by other sources of information in HIV prevalence and incidence.

Ovine Enzootic Abortion (OEA): a comparison of antibody responses in vaccinated and naturally-infected swiss sheep over a two year period

BACKGROUND: Prevention and control of ovine enzootic abortion (OEA) can be achieved by application of a live vaccine. In this study, five sheep flocks with different vaccination and infection status were serologically tested using a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) specific for Chlamydophila (Cp.) abortus over a two-year time period. RESULTS: Sheep in Flock A with recent OEA history had high antibody values after vaccination similar to Flock C with natural Cp. abortus infections. In contrast, OEA serology negative sheep (Flock E) showed individual animal-specific immunoreactions after vaccination. Antibody levels of vaccinated ewes in Flock B ranged from negative to positive two and three years after vaccination, respectively. Positive antibody values in the negative control Flock D (without OEA or vaccination) are probably due to asymptomatic intestinal infections with Cp. abortus. Excretion of the attenuated strain of Cp. abortus used in the live vaccine through the eye was not observed in vaccinated animals of Flock E. CONCLUSION: The findings of our study indicate that, using serology, no distinction can be made between vaccinated and naturally infected sheep. As a result, confirmation of a negative OEA status in vaccinated animals by serology cannot be determined.

A systematic review of the survival and complication rates of resin-bonded bridges after an observation period of at least 5 years

OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this systematic review were to assess the 5-year survival of resin-bonded bridges (RBBs) and to describe the incidence of technical and biological complications. METHODS: An electronic Medline search complemented by manual searching was conducted to identify prospective and retrospective cohort studies on RBBs with a mean follow-up time of at least 5 years. Patients had to have been examined clinically at the follow-up visit. Assessment of the identified studies and data extraction were performed independently by two reviewers. Failure and complication rates were analyzed using random-effects Poissons regression models to obtain summary estimates of 5-year proportions. RESULTS: The search provided 6110 titles and 214 abstracts. Full-text analysis was performed for 93 articles, resulting in 17 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis of these studies indicated an estimated survival of RBBs of 87.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 81.6-91.9%) after 5 years. The most frequent complication was debonding (loss of retention), which occurred in 19.2% (95% CI: 13.8-26.3%) of RBBs over an observation period of 5 years. The annual debonding rate for RBBs placed on posterior teeth (5.03%) tended to be higher than that for anterior-placed RBBs (3.05%). This difference, however, did not reach statistical significance (P=0.157). Biological complications, like caries on abutments and RBBs lost due to periodontitis, occurred in 1.5% of abutments and 2.1% of RBBs, respectively. CONCLUSION: Despite the high survival rate of RBBs, technical complications like debonding are frequent. This in turn means that a substantial amount of extra chair time may be needed following the incorporation of RBBs. There is thus an urgent need for studies with a follow-up time of 10 years or more, to evaluate the long-term outcomes.