Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.

Optimal threshold policies for admission control in communication networks via discrete parameter stochastic approximation

The problem of admission control of packets in communication networks is studied in the continuous time queueing framework under different classes of service and delayed information feedback. We develop and use a variant of a simulation based two timescale simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm for finding an optimal feedback policy within the class of threshold type policies. Even though SPSA has originally been designed for continuous parameter optimization, its variant for the discrete parameter case is seen to work well. We give a proof of the hypothesis needed to show convergence of the algorithm on our setting along with a sketch of the convergence analysis. Extensive numerical experiments with the algorithm are illustrated for different parameter specifications. In particular, we study the effect of feedback delays on the system performance.

HALLINNONTASOJEN VÄLINEN DIALOGI JA ERITYISOPETUKSEN MUUTOS BYROKRAATTISENA INSTITUUTIONA : - Kymppikuntien loppuraportin ja Erityisopetuksen strategian sisällönanalyyttinen vertailu

The rise of Special education numbers in Finland has caused a situation where Finland s ten largest LEA s so called kymppikunnat (ten communes) have expressed their growing concern of organizing the special education in the current institutional settings. The LEA s started the conversation of redefining special education system in 2004. Their aim was to target the governments attention to the problematics of special education. By the request of the Ministry of Education the LEA s prepared a final report concerning the central questions in the Finnish special education system. On the basis of the LEA s survey it became even clearer that the legislation, funding system and curriculum are tightly linked together. The following LEA s took part into the writing process Espoo, Helsinki, Jyväskylä, Kuopio, Lahti, Lappeenranta, Tampere, Turku and Vantaa. The report was hand over to the Ministry of Education at 18.8.2006. After the delivery the Ministry organized special education development group meetings 17 times in the year 2007. The result of the LEA s report and the development meetings was a new Special Education Strategy 2007. I am observing the dialogue between administrational levels in governmental institutions change process. The research is a content analysis where I compare the Erityistä tukea tarvitsevan oppilaan opetuksen järjestämisen uudistaminen osana yhtenäistä perusopetusta- kohti laatua ja joustavuutta (The renewal of the organization of teaching for student with special educational needs as part of unified education for all - towards quality and flexibility) document to Erityisopetuksen strategia (Special education strategy) document. My aim was to find out how much of their own interests have the LEA s been able to integrate into the official governmental documentation. The data has been organized and analyzed quantitatively with Macros created as additional parts in Microsoft Excel software. The document material has also been arranged manually on sentence based categorization into an Excel matrix. The results have been theoretically viewed from the special education reform dialogue perspective, and from the angle of the change process of a bureaucratic institution. My target has been to provide a new viewpoint to the change of special education system as a bureaucratic institution. The education system has traditionally been understood as a machine bureaucracy. By the review provided in my pro gradu analysis it seems however that the administrational system in special education is more of a postmodern network bureaucracy than machine bureaucracy. The system appears to be constructed by overlapping, crossing and complex networks where things are been decided. These kinds of networks are called "governance networks . It seems that the governmental administrational - and politic levels, the third sector actors and other society s operators are mixed in decision making.

Search for the Higgs Boson Using Neural Networks in Events with Missing Energy and b-Quark Jets in pp̅ Collisions at √s=1.96 TeV

We report on a search for the standard model Higgs boson produced in association with a $W$ or $Z$ boson in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 1.96$ TeV recorded by the CDF II experiment at the Tevatron in a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 2.1 fb$^{-1}$. We consider events which have no identified charged leptons, an imbalance in transverse momentum, and two or three jets where at least one jet is consistent with originating from the decay of a $b$ hadron. We find good agreement between data and predictions. We place 95% confidence level upper limits on the production cross section for several Higgs boson masses ranging from 110$\gevm$ to 150$\gevm$. For a mass of 115$\gevm$ the observed (expected) limit is 6.9 (5.6) times the standard model prediction.

Comparative analysis of thermophilic and mesophilic proteins using Protein Energy Networks

Background: Thermophilic proteins sustain themselves and function at higher temperatures. Despite their structural and functional similarities with their mesophilic homologues, they show enhanced stability. Various comparative studies at genomic, protein sequence and structure levels, and experimental works highlight the different factors and dominant interacting forces contributing to this increased stability. Methods: In this comparative structure based study, we have used interaction energies between amino acids, to generate structure networks called as Protein Energy Networks (PENs). These PENs are used to compute network, sub-graph, and node specific parameters. These parameters are then compared between the thermophile-mesophile homologues. Results: The results show an increased number of clusters and low energy cliques in thermophiles as the main contributing factors for their enhanced stability. Further more, we see an increase in the number of hubs in thermophiles. We also observe no community of electrostatic cliques forming in PENs. Conclusion: In this study we were able to take an energy based network approach, to identify the factors responsible for enhanced stability of thermophiles, by comparative analysis. We were able to point out that the sub-graph parameters are the prominent contributing factors. The thermophiles have a better-packed hydrophobic core. We have also discussed how thermophiles, although increasing stability through higher connectivity retains conformational flexibility, from a cliques and communities perspective.

Comparative analysis of thermophilic and mesophilic proteins using Protein Energy Networks

Background: Thermophilic proteins sustain themselves and function at higher temperatures. Despite their structural and functional similarities with their mesophilic homologues, they show enhanced stability. Various comparative studies at genomic, protein sequence and structure levels, and experimental works highlight the different factors and dominant interacting forces contributing to this increased stability. Methods: In this comparative structure based study, we have used interaction energies between amino acids, to generate structure networks called as Protein Energy Networks (PENs). These PENs are used to compute network, sub-graph, and node specific parameters. These parameters are then compared between the thermophile-mesophile homologues. Results: The results show an increased number of clusters and low energy cliques in thermophiles as the main contributing factors for their enhanced stability. Further more, we see an increase in the number of hubs in thermophiles. We also observe no community of electrostatic cliques forming in PENs. Conclusion: In this study we were able to take an energy based network approach, to identify the factors responsible for enhanced stability of thermophiles, by comparative analysis. We were able to point out that the sub-graph parameters are the prominent contributing factors. The thermophiles have a better-packed hydrophobic core. We have also discussed how thermophiles, although increasing stability through higher connectivity retains conformational flexibility, from a cliques and communities perspective.

Truthful and Quality Conscious Query Incentive Networks

Query incentive networks capture the role of incentives in extracting information from decentralized information networks such as a social network. Several game theoretic tilt:Kids of query incentive networks have been proposed in the literature to study and characterize the dependence, of the monetary reward required to extract the answer for a query, on various factors such as the structure of the network, the level of difficulty of the query, and the required success probability.None of the existing models, however, captures the practical andimportant factor of quality of answers. In this paper, we develop a complete mechanism design based framework to incorporate the quality of answers, in the monetization of query incentive networks. First, we extend the model of Kleinberg and Raghavan [2] to allow the nodes to modulate the incentive on the basis of the quality of the answer they receive. For this qualify conscious model. we show are existence of a unique Nash equilibrium and study the impact of quality of answers on the growth rate of the initial reward, with respect to the branching factor of the network. Next, we present two mechanisms; the direct comparison mechanism and the peer prediction mechanism, for truthful elicitation of quality from the agents. These mechanisms are based on scoring rules and cover different; scenarios which may arise in query incentive networks. We show that the proposed quality elicitation mechanisms are incentive compatible and ex-ante budget balanced. We also derive conditions under which ex-post budget balance can beachieved by these mechanisms.

Developing Peer-To-Peer Web Applications

As the virtual world grows more complex, finding a standard way for storing data becomes increasingly important. Ideally, each data item would be brought into the computer system only once. References for data items need to be cryptographically verifiable, so the data can maintain its identity while being passed around. This way there will be only one copy of the users family photo album, while the user can use multiple tools to show or manipulate the album. Copies of users data could be stored on some of his family members computer, some of his computers, but also at some online services which he uses. When all actors operate over one replicated copy of the data, the system automatically avoids a single point of failure. Thus the data will not disappear with one computer breaking, or one service provider going out of business. One shared copy also makes it possible to delete a piece of data from all systems at once, on users request. In our research we tried to find a model that would make data manageable to users, and make it possible to have the same data stored at various locations. We studied three systems, Persona, Freenet, and GNUnet, that suggest different models for protecting user data. The main application areas of the systems studied include securing online social networks, providing anonymous web, and preventing censorship in file-sharing. Each of the systems studied store user data on machines belonging to third parties. The systems differ in measures they take to protect their users from data loss, forged information, censorship, and being monitored. All of the systems use cryptography to secure names used for the content, and to protect the data from outsiders. Based on the gained knowledge, we built a prototype platform called Peerscape, which stores user data in a synchronized, protected database. Data items themselves are protected with cryptography against forgery, but not encrypted as the focus has been disseminating the data directly among family and friends instead of letting third parties store the information. We turned the synchronizing database into peer-to-peer web by revealing its contents through an integrated http server. The REST-like http API supports development of applications in javascript. To evaluate the platform’s suitability for application development we wrote some simple applications, including a public chat room, bittorrent site, and a flower growing game. During our early tests we came to the conclusion that using the platform for simple applications works well. As web standards develop further, writing applications for the platform should become easier. Any system this complex will have its problems, and we are not expecting our platform to replace the existing web, but are fairly impressed with the results and consider our work important from the perspective of managing user data.

Developing Peer-To-Peer Web Applications

As the virtual world grows more complex, finding a standard way for storing data becomes increasingly important. Ideally, each data item would be brought into the computer system only once. References for data items need to be cryptographically verifiable, so the data can maintain its identity while being passed around. This way there will be only one copy of the users family photo album, while the user can use multiple tools to show or manipulate the album. Copies of users data could be stored on some of his family members computer, some of his computers, but also at some online services which he uses. When all actors operate over one replicated copy of the data, the system automatically avoids a single point of failure. Thus the data will not disappear with one computer breaking, or one service provider going out of business. One shared copy also makes it possible to delete a piece of data from all systems at once, on users request. In our research we tried to find a model that would make data manageable to users, and make it possible to have the same data stored at various locations. We studied three systems, Persona, Freenet, and GNUnet, that suggest different models for protecting user data. The main application areas of the systems studied include securing online social networks, providing anonymous web, and preventing censorship in file-sharing. Each of the systems studied store user data on machines belonging to third parties. The systems differ in measures they take to protect their users from data loss, forged information, censorship, and being monitored. All of the systems use cryptography to secure names used for the content, and to protect the data from outsiders. Based on the gained knowledge, we built a prototype platform called Peerscape, which stores user data in a synchronized, protected database. Data items themselves are protected with cryptography against forgery, but not encrypted as the focus has been disseminating the data directly among family and friends instead of letting third parties store the information. We turned the synchronizing database into peer-to-peer web by revealing its contents through an integrated http server. The REST-like http API supports development of applications in javascript. To evaluate the platform s suitability for application development we wrote some simple applications, including a public chat room, bittorrent site, and a flower growing game. During our early tests we came to the conclusion that using the platform for simple applications works well. As web standards develop further, writing applications for the platform should become easier. Any system this complex will have its problems, and we are not expecting our platform to replace the existing web, but are fairly impressed with the results and consider our work important from the perspective of managing user data.

A novel approach for large-scale polypeptide folding based on elastic networks using continuous optimization

We present a new computationally efficient method for large-scale polypeptide folding using coarse-grained elastic networks and gradient-based continuous optimization techniques. The folding is governed by minimization of energy based on Miyazawa–Jernigan contact potentials. Using this method we are able to substantially reduce the computation time on ordinary desktop computers for simulation of polypeptide folding starting from a fully unfolded state. We compare our results with available native state structures from Protein Data Bank (PDB) for a few de-novo proteins and two natural proteins, Ubiquitin and Lysozyme. Based on our simulations we are able to draw the energy landscape for a small de-novo protein, Chignolin. We also use two well known protein structure prediction software, MODELLER and GROMACS to compare our results. In the end, we show how a modification of normal elastic network model can lead to higher accuracy and lower time required for simulation.

Clustering in Concept Association Networks

We view association of concepts as a complex network and present a heuristic for clustering concepts by taking into account the underlying network structure of their associations. Clusters generated from our approach are qualitatively better than clusters generated from the conventional spectral clustering mechanism used for graph partitioning.

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks

Detecting Earnings Management Using Neural Networks. Trying to balance between relevant and reliable accounting data, generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) allow, to some extent, the company management to use their judgment and to make subjective assessments when preparing financial statements. The opportunistic use of the discretion in financial reporting is called earnings management. There have been a considerable number of suggestions of methods for detecting accrual based earnings management. A majority of these methods are based on linear regression. The problem with using linear regression is that a linear relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables must be assumed. However, previous research has shown that the relationship between accruals and some of the explanatory variables, such as company performance, is non-linear. An alternative to linear regression, which can handle non-linear relationships, is neural networks. The type of neural network used in this study is the feed-forward back-propagation neural network. Three neural network-based models are compared with four commonly used linear regression-based earnings management detection models. All seven models are based on the earnings management detection model presented by Jones (1991). The performance of the models is assessed in three steps. First, a random data set of companies is used. Second, the discretionary accruals from the random data set are ranked according to six different variables. The discretionary accruals in the highest and lowest quartiles for these six variables are then compared. Third, a data set containing simulated earnings management is used. Both expense and revenue manipulation ranging between -5% and 5% of lagged total assets is simulated. Furthermore, two neural network-based models and two linear regression-based models are used with a data set containing financial statement data from 110 failed companies. Overall, the results show that the linear regression-based models, except for the model using a piecewise linear approach, produce biased estimates of discretionary accruals. The neural network-based model with the original Jones model variables and the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable, however, perform well in all three steps. Especially in the second step, where the highest and lowest quartiles of ranked discretionary accruals are examined, the neural network-based model augmented with ROA as an independent variable outperforms the other models.

Design of incentive compatible protocols for wireless networks: A game theoretic approach

In this thesis work, we design rigorous and efficient protocols/mechanisms for different types of wireless networks using a mechanism design [1] and game theoretic approach [2]. Our work can broadly be viewed in two parts. In the first part, we concentrate on ad hoc wireless networks [3] and [4]. In particular, we consider broadcast in these networks where each node is owned by independent and selfish users. Being selfish, these nodes do not forward the broadcast packets. All existing protocols for broadcast assume that nodes forward the transit packets. So, there is need for developing new broadcast protocols to overcome node selfishness. In our paper [5], we develop a strategy proof pricing mechanism which we call immediate predecessor node pricing mechanism (IPNPM) and an efficient new broadcast protocol based on IPNPM. We show the efficacy of our proposed broadcast protocol using simulation results.