2014 Ukraine crisis – Implications for corporate crisis management

In the late year 2013 events started to unfold in Ukraine’s capital city Kiev that would change the political and economic environment of the EU and Russia. The tension had been building for years between the two parties with Ukraine in the middle and during 2014 the tension blew up and events started to escalate into a crisis, which we now know as the 2014 Ukraine crisis. The crisis would include political, economic, and even military actions by all the parties involved with Ukraine slipping close to civil war. Both political and economic hardships followed for others as well with both the EU and Russia placing heavy political and economic sanctions on each other. Most notably in terms of this paper, the Russian federation placed total import embargo sanctions on food imports from the EU and some other countries. This meant that a Finnish dairy company, Valio, had to engage in corporate crisis management as almost a fifth of its total revenue was cut in a heartbeat. Valio had been prepared for some kind of complications with their Russian market as events started to unfold in Ukraine in the beginning of 2014 but never did they suspect that a complete shutdown of the Russian market would follow. The company is still recovering after more than a year after the sanctions were posed and have not been able to supplement the lost revenue streams. This research is a qualitative research aiming to find answers to the main questions: 1) What is the 2014 Ukraine crisis and what kind of special implications does it have and 2) How did the crisis affect Valio and how did Valio fare in its crisis management efforts. The data has been collected both from secondary document sources and primary sources. The main findings of this research are that the political and economic environment of the EU and Russia has gone through a profound change during the years 2013-2015. The companies and governments should re-evaluate what kind of environment they are now facing and what kinds of risks the new situation poses. This also calls for a deep academic analysis from the academic community. In corporate crisis management of Valio the main findings are that the former literature has looked into crisis management as one-time occurrence but the new crises and global events would call for a more on-going crisis analysis and active crisis management. Thus, corporate crisis management should be viewed as a cycle. Valio specifically handled the situation surprisingly well, considering that their revenue was indeed cut by a fifth. The main aspects of crisis management, which Valio did not handle as well, concern the learning curve of crisis management. They could be doing more in order to prepare for future crises better by learning from this experience. The situation is then still on-going in the autumn 2015 both in Ukraine and within Valio.

Ammattiliittojen rakenteen sekä muiden instituutioiden vaikutus kansalliseen kilpailukykyyn

This thesis examines the impact of structural characteristics of wage bargaining and unemployment insurance system of trade and labour unions and governmental institutions on national competitiveness. In addition, the effect currency union has on these factors is evaluated. The analysis is conducted on 17 EU- and ETA-countries through panel data regression. The results indicate that able governmental institutions enhance national competitiveness significantly and without exceptions. The competitive benefits of wage bargaining peak when wages are negotiated decentralized, above all when the country is a member of the Eurozone. This can be explained with the reduced capability of Eurozone governments to conduct efficient income policies in coordinated wage bargaining structure, since it lacks the means to exploit monetary policies which are exercised by a politically independent central bank.

New threats - old routines : bureaucratic adaptability in the security policy environment

Within the framework of state security policy, the focus of this dissertation are the relations between how new security threats are perceived and the policy planning and bureaucratic implementation that are designed to address them. In addition, this thesis explores and studies some of the inertias that might exist in the core of the state apparatus as it addresses new threats and how these could be better managed. The dissertation is built on five thematic and interrelated articles highlighting different aspects of when new significant national security threats are detected by different governments until the threats on the policy planning side translate into protective measures within the society. The timeline differs widely between different countries and some key aspects of this process are also studied. One focus concerns mechanisms for adaptability within the Intelligence Community, another on the policy planning process within the Cabinet Offices/National Security Councils and the third focus is on the planning process and how policy is implemented within the bureaucracy. The issue of policy transfer is also analysed, revealing that there is some imitation of innovation within governmental structures and policies, for example within the field of cyber defence. The main findings of the dissertation are that this context has built-in inertias and bureaucratic seams found in most government bureaucratic machineries. As much of the information and planning measures imply security classification of the transparency and internal debate on these issues, alternative assessments become limited. To remedy this situation, the thesis recommends ways to improve the decision-making system in order to streamline the processes involved in making these decisions. Another special focus of the thesis concerns the role of the public policy think tanks in the United States as an instrument of change in the country’s national security decision-making environment, which is viewed from the perspective as being a possible source of new ideas and innovation. The findings in this part are based on unique interviews data on how think tanks become successful and influence the policy debate in a country such as the United States. It appears clearly that in countries such as the United States think tanks smooth the decision making processes, and that this model with some adaptations also might be transferrable to other democratic countries.

Digitalisaatio ja kuljettajakoulutusyrittäjyys

Digitalisaation myötä myös liikenteestä tulee yhä älykkäämpää. Valtiovalta purkaa sääntelyä ja sallii digitaalisten menetelmien laajempaa käyttöä. Kuljettajakoulutusta pidetään toimialana kuitenkin hyvin konventionaalisena. Diplomityön tarkoituksena on tutkia, mitä digitalisaatio tarkoittaa kuljettajakoulutusyritysten liiketoimintamalleille. Empiiristä aineistoa saatiin teemahaastatteluin ja aineistoa analysoitiin laadullisin menetelmin. Työssä esitellään alan vahvuudet, heikkoudet, mahdollisuudet ja uhat sekä tulevaisuuden skenaariot. Digitalisaatio aiheuttaa merkittäviä muutoksia kuljettajakoulutusalan yrityksille. Auto ei ole enää entisenlainen statussymboli eikä rahan käytön kohde. Digitaaliajan ihmiset eivät aina kaipaa fyysistä liikkumista, kun vielä kivijalkakaupatkin vähenevät. Ajokorttia ei useinkaan koeta välttämättömäksi aikuistumisriitiksi. Uusi teknologia voi kuitenkin radikaalisti parantaa alan yritysten suorituskykyä: palvelut muuttuvat ajasta ja paikasta riippumattomiksi sekä skaalautuviksi. Kuluttajien kannalta digitalisaatio puolestaan parantaa asiakaslähtöisyyttä. Alan liiketoimintamallien kehittymiseen vaikuttaa neljä taustavoimaa: digitalisaatio, perinteet, sääntely ja yrittäjyys. Liiketoimintamalli sisältää opetukselliset ydintoiminnot, sisäiset prosessit, liiketoiminnan tukitoiminnot ja arvoehdotuksen asiakkaalle. Liiketoiminnan kehittäminen vastaamaan digitalisaation vaatimuksia edellyttää proaktiivista innovaatiostrategiaa. Siihen perustuvien innovaatiomenetelmien avulla yritys voi kehittää liiketoimintamalliaan digitalisaation tarjoamien ja tiedon asymmetriasta kumpuavien mahdollisuuksien hyödyntämiseksi.

Governos autoritários e câmbio nos países latino-americanos

Authoritarian governments and exchange rate policy in Latin American countries. Our aim on this paper is to identify the exchange rate policies used by Authoritarian governments in Latin America during the 170’s and 180’s. The literature shows that the focus of the exchange rate policy was on inflation control, which was not consistent with the evidence. We show on this paper that these governments aimed at a undervalued currency because of the behavior of the external balance of the countries.

Political economy of preferential trade agreement: the case of bilateral asymmetric negotiation

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the political economy of preferential trade agreements based on a sequential non-cooperative Stackelberg political game between a large economy and a small one, in which the political dispute of rival lobby groups defines the unilateral stance of both governments in the first stage; and the Stackelberg "coalition-proof" equilibrium defines the free trade agreement format in the second stage. Finally, a few modifications in the initial game structure are discussed in order to enhance the small economy's negotiation power. The political economy model is applied to FTAA case.

Política industrial e compromissos críveis: uma proposta de análise e de ação governamental

This paper analyses the question of the counterparts that governments should claim from firms and/or economic sectors supported by vertical industrial policy. This is a discussion that still have to advance because everything indicate that the set of current counterparts (goals of costs, productivity, exportation, etc.) still may be increased and improved, what will facilitate the assessment of industrial policy execution by society and the verification of its efficacy in order to yielding more possibilities of economic growth for a country or region. To reinforce the commitment credibility of the agents supported by industrial policy, this paper proposes to maintain the counterparts meant before and that such agents will be stimulated to commit specific assets in their activities that are supported by govern. It is shown that, without use more public resources than the used currently, this new counterpart may reinforce substantially the incentives that the firms supported by vertical industrial policy have it to execute the traditional counterparts assumed by them, and with it guarantee the best possible use of public resources.

Kirjanpitolainsäädännön muutosten vaikutus mikro- ja pienyritysten tilinpäätökseen

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli tarkastella, miten kirjanpitolainsäädäntöön ehdotetut muutokset vaikuttavat mikro- ja pienyritysten tilinpäätökseen. Tutkimus oli jaettu kahteen eri osaan: miten muutokset vaikuttavat tilinpäätöksestä saatavaan informaatioon ja miten muutokset vaikuttavat tilinpäätöksen laadintaan. Tutkimus toteutettiin laadullisena tutkimuksena ja se perustui hallituksen esitykseen HE 89/2015 vp, joka koski kirjanpitolainsäädännön muuttamista. Hallituksen esityksessä ehdotettuja muutoksia verrattiin voimassaolevaan lainsäädäntöön ja muutosten tulkinnassa käytettiin alan asiantuntijoiden lausuntoja. Lainsäädännön muutoksella ei tutkimuksen mukaan ole merkittäviä vaikutuksia tilinpäätösinformaation käyttäjien kannalta. Muutokset eivät tuoneet helpotuksia voimassaolevan lainsäädännön ongelmiin. Lainsäädännön muutoksella ei myöskään ole merkittäviä vaikutuksia tilinpäätöksen laadintaan. Pienempiä helpotuksia on tehty, mutta niiden hyödyt vaikuttavat pieniltä. Lainsäädäntöön ehdotetut muutokset kuitenkin helpottavat kirjanpitolainsäädännön tulkintaa selkiyttämällä säädöksiä ja niiden rakennetta.

Diferentes padrões de políticas salariais nos estados brasileiros: uma análise a partir do diferencial de salários público-privado

Public servant wages represent a significant part of Brazilian state governments' current expenses. Based on the literature, this paper has tried to identify which states practice efficient, compensatory or appropriation wage politics through the estimation of public-private wage differentials. The differential of salaries was calculated between 1995 and 2004 following the Oaxaca's technique. The results show that the wage policy of an important number of states has had efficiency and a numerous part of the North and the Northeast states have developed compensatory politics. The Federal District and Roraima practiced a wage policy characterized by explicit appropriation.

Forecasting with social media – Using Facebook likes to predict the results of the 2015 Finnish Parliamentary elections

Already one-third of the human population uses social media on a daily basis. The biggest social networking site Facebook has over billion monthly users. As a result, social media services are now recording unprecedented amount of data on human behavior. The phenomenon has certainly caught the attention of scholars, businesses and governments alike. Organizations around the globe are trying to explore new ways to benefit from the massive databases. One emerging field of research is the use of social media in forecasting. The goal is to use data gathered from online services to predict offline phenomena. Predicting the results of elections is a prominent example of forecasting with social media, but regardless of the numerous attempts, no reliable technique has been established. The objective of the research is to analyze how accurately the results of parliament elections can be forecasted using social media. The research examines whether Facebook “likes” can be effectively used for predicting the outcome of the Finnish parliament elections that took place in April 2015. First a tool for gathering data from Facebook was created. Then the data was used to create an electoral forecast. Finally, the forecast was compared with the official results of the elections. The data used in the research was gathered from the Facebook walls of all the candidates that were running for the parliament elections and had a valid Facebook page. The final sample represents 1131 candidates and over 750000 Facebook “likes”. The results indicate that creating a forecast solely based on Facebook “likes” is not accurate. The forecast model predicted very dramatic changes to the Finnish political landscape while the official results of the elections were rather moderate. However, a clear statistical relationship between “likes” and votes was discovered. In conclusion, it is apparent that citizens and other key actors of the society are using social media in an increasing rate. However, the volume of the data does not directly increase the quality of the forecast. In addition, the study faced several other limitations that should be addressed in future research. Nonetheless, discovering the positive correlation between “likes” and votes is valuable information that can be used in future studies. Finally, it is evident that Facebook “likes” are not accurate enough and a meaningful forecast would require additional parameters.

Global booms and busts: how is Brazil's middle class faring?

Brazil's Post War economic history has been marked by inflationary booms and busts, which kept large parts of the population poor, as income distribution remained highly skewed, and most governments failed to put enough efforts and resources into education and health. That seems to have changed recently, as an increasing number of studies have shown considerable advances in the incomes of the lower and the middle classes. This essay examines those findings and puts them into a historical perspective, discussing earlier attempts and hopes of Brazilian policy makers to advance the welfare of the population. It concludes that while the last fifteen years have been remarkable for the country to achieve macroeconomic stability and while the increasing efforts of supporting the poor seemed to have been moving income distribution slowly towards a more equal level, there is still a long way to go. The 2008 world financial crisis also hit Brazil hard, but the recovery has been smoother and faster than in any OECD country. The impact of the current crisis may provide a good test as to the robustness of the previous trends to further the wellbeing of the poor and the middle class

Grassroots Charity in China: Case Analysis of a Charity Project Organised by Jane Zhang Fan Club

As unregistered grassroots charities do not appear in official statistics in China, they tend to remain unnoticed by scholars. Also as they operate unofficially and avoid publicity, their work is usually not reported by the media. In this research I explore the grassroots charity activity of one pop music fan club from the viewpoint of trust as a sociological concept. I will also establish the general situation on charity in China. By using textual analysis on internet blogs and discussion forums I map the charity project from the discussion of the original idea to the execution and follow up phase. I study the roles the fan club members assume during the project as anonymous participants of internet conversations, as well as concrete active charity volunteers outside of the virtual world. I establish parties, other than the fan club, which are involved in the charity project. Interviews with one of the participant of the project in 2010, 2014 and 2015 bring valuable additional information and help in distributing the questionnaire survey. A quantitative questionnaire survey was distributed among the fan club members to get more detailed information on the motives and attitudes towards official and unofficial charity in China. Because of the inequality in China, the rural minority areas do not have similar educational opportunities as the mostly majority inhabited urban areas, even though the country officially has a nine year compulsory education. Grassroots charities can operate in relative freedom taking some of the government’s burden of social responsibilities if they are not criticizing the authorities. The problem with grassroots charity seems to be lack of sustainability. The lack of trust for authorities and official charities was the reason why the Jane Zhang fan club decided to conduct a charity case unofficially. As a group of people previously unknown to each other, they managed to build mutual trust to carry out the project transparently and successfully, though not sustainably. The internet has provided a new and effective platform for unofficial grassroots charities, who choose not to co-operate with official organisations. On grassroots level charities can have the transparency and trust that lack from official charities. I suggest, that interviewing the real persons behind the internet aliases and finding out what happened outside the discussion forums, would bring a more detailed and outspoken description of the project concerning of the contacts with the local authorities. Also travelling to the site and communicating with the local people in the village would establish how they have experienced the project.

Macroeconomic trouble and policy challenges in the wake of the financial bust

Contrasting with the 1929 great crisis, authorities intervened forcefully in 2008 to stop the disintegration of the financial system. Governments and central banks then sought to revise the prudential regulation in depth. It would be optimistic, however, to believe that prudential measures, alone, could deliver full economic recovery, at least in the countries that had been involved in the financial turmoil. Indeed, the collapse of the "state of confidence" and the negative effects of private debts on consumption and investment decisions have fed depressive forces and policy challenges which could hold for a while, even once the financial sector is made safe. On the one hand, the economic slowdown and the direct and indirect assistance provided by the governments to the private sectors are having a heavy impact on public finances, meanwhile, on the other hand, the massive amounts of money which artificially inflated the prices of housing and financial products could produce inflationary pressures in the post-crisis period, unless a new assets bubble is allowed for. Authorities could therefore be facing high unemployment in a damaged context of public deficits and inflationary pressures. The paper aims at discussing these new challenges. The inadequacy of inflation targets and fiscal orthodoxy in a depressed economy is emphasized, and the outlines of a Post Keynesian alternative policy are examined.

Fiscal policy and private investment: latin america in a comparative perspective

The main objective of the paper is to assess the impact of fiscal variables on private investment comparing some Latin-American economies to other advanced ones. For such purposes, the authors carry out an econometric analysis for the period 1990-2008. They make use of two dynamic panel models in which they group countries with similar characteristics and development levels. In one of them, they include Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Uruguay; whereas in the second one the countries accounted for are the U.S., Canada, Spain, Korea, Ireland and Japan. They specify in both models an investment function using as arguments a wide range of variables, including those related with fiscal policy. From their results the authors infer that governments can, with higher spending, boost up the economy even when they finance spending with higher taxes. In Latin America, where income concentration is enormous, a proposal to boost up the economy through higher government expenditure financed with a progressive income tax, is even more justified.

Políticas de transferência de renda no Brasil e na Argentina

This article deals with the conditioned income-transfer developed by the governments of Lula and Dilma, in the Brazilian case, and by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, in Argentina. In other words, the programs Bolsa Família and "Asignación Universal por Hijo para Protección Social". They are comparatively analyzed with regard to their institutionality, the access criteria, the conditionings and the concept of poverty, in order to discuss whether they constitute or not a social right and the relative importance of the amount given.