Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: an idealised case study over Europe

Producing projections of future crop yields requires careful thought about the appropriate use of atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations. Here we describe and demonstrate multiple methods for ‘calibrating’ climate projections using an ensemble of AOGCM simulations in a ‘perfect sibling’ framework. Crucially, this type of analysis assesses the ability of each calibration methodology to produce reliable estimates of future climate, which is not possible just using historical observations. This type of approach could be more widely adopted for assessing calibration methodologies for crop modelling. The calibration methods assessed include the commonly used ‘delta’ (change factor) and ‘nudging’ (bias correction) approaches. We focus on daily maximum temperature in summer over Europe for this idealised case study, but the methods can be generalised to other variables and other regions. The calibration methods, which are relatively easy to implement given appropriate observations, produce more robust projections of future daily maximum temperatures and heat stress than using raw model output. The choice over which calibration method to use will likely depend on the situation, but change factor approaches tend to perform best in our examples. Finally, we demonstrate that the uncertainty due to the choice of calibration methodology is a significant contributor to the total uncertainty in future climate projections for impact studies. We conclude that utilising a variety of calibration methods on output from a wide range of AOGCMs is essential to produce climate data that will ensure robust and reliable crop yield projections.

The use of public participation and economic appraisal for public involvement in large-scale hydropower projects: Case study of the Nam Theun 2 Hydropower Project

Gaining public acceptance is one of the main issues with large-scale low-carbon projects such as hydropower development. It has been recommended by the World Commission on Dams that to gain public acceptance, publicinvolvement is necessary in the decision-making process (WCD, 2000). As financially-significant actors in the planning and implementation of large-scale hydropowerprojects in developing country contexts, the paper examines the ways in which publicinvolvement may be influenced by international financial institutions. Using the casestudy of the NamTheun2HydropowerProject in Laos, the paper analyses how publicinvolvement facilitated by the Asian Development Bank had a bearing on procedural and distributional justice. The paper analyses the extent of publicparticipation and the assessment of full social and environmental costs of the project in the Cost-Benefit Analysis conducted during the projectappraisal stage. It is argued that while efforts were made to involve the public, there were several factors that influenced procedural and distributional justice: the late contribution of the Asian Development Bank in the projectappraisal stage; and the issue of non-market values and discount rate to calculate the full social and environmental costs.

Variations in the mainstreaming of sustainability: a case study approach

The construction sector has a major role to play in delivering the transition to a low carbon economy and in contributing to sustainable development; however, integrating sustainability into everyday business remains a major challenge for the sector. This research explores the experience of three large construction and engineering consultancy firms in mainstreaming sustainability. The aim of the paper is to identify and explain variations in firm level strategies for mainstreaming sustainability. The three cases vary in the way in which sustainability is ramed – as a problem of risk, business opportunity or culture – and in its location within the firm. The research postulates that the mainstreaming of sustainability is not the uniform linear process often articulated in theories of strategic change and management, but varies with the dominant organisational culture and history of each firm. he paper concludes with a reflection on the implications of this analysis for management theories and for firm level strategies.

The effectiveness of botanic garden collections in supporting plant conservation: a European case study

Europe has the greatest concentration of botanic gardens in the world, they cultivate extensive collections of plants that include samples of European threatened plant species. This study looks at the effectiveness of these collections in supporting species conservation. A three part study is presented: (1) the results of a survey and assessment of threatened plants in botanic gardens, as defined by the Bern Convention; (2) case studies illustrating current issues in the ex situ management of European threatened plant species; and (3) presentation of policy recommendations on further improving botanic garden contributions to European plant conservation. The survey indicated that of 119 European botanic gardens in 29 European countries, 105 are cultivating 308 of the 573 threatened plant species listed by the Bern Convention. The survey identified 25 botanic gardens in 14 countries undertaking 51 conservation projects focused on 27 Bern listed species. In particular this survey has established that the majority of taxa are held in a small number of collections, dominated by non-wild origin accessions, and are not adequately documented. The majority of specimens in botanic gardens are cultivated out of the range country and not contributing to a specific conservation project. We review the genetic representation and documentation of origin in collections. Existing plant collections contain representatives of populations, now lost in the wild and maintain samples of at least nine European plant taxa identified as 'Extinct in the Wild'. However, inadequate standards of record keeping has compromised the conservation value of many collections. We highlight the dangers of hybridisation and disease in ex situ collections. The results suggest that botanic garden collections are skewed towards horticulturally robust and ornamental species and do not fully reflect priorities as defined by the Bern Convention. Recognising the limitations of traditional botanic garden collections we propose that botanic gardens more effectively utilise their two core competencies, namely scientific horticulture and public display and interpretation. The unique horticultural skills resident in European botanic gardens could be more effectively utilised through the application of horticulture to the management of wild populations.

An in-depth view of the facets, antecedents and effects of leaders’ change competency: lessons from a case study

Leaders across companies initiate and implement change and thus are crucial for successful organizations. This study takes a competency perspective on leaders and investigates the competencies leaders show to facilitate effective change. The article explores the content of the construct of leaders’ change competency and examines its antecedents and effects. We conducted a case study in a German tourism company undergoing a major change process. The study identified (a) distinct content facets regarding the construct of leaders’ change competency along its two dimensions of leaders’ readiness for change and leaders’ change ability; (b) the construct’s antecedents, specifically contextual factors, leaders’ competency potentials, and attitudes toward change; and (c) beneficial effects of leaders’ change competency. The study ends with implications for research and leadership practice as well as suggestions for future studies on leaders’ change competency.

The effects of explicit versus parameterized convection on the MJO in a large-domain high-resolution tropical case study. Part I: Characterization of large-scale organization and propagation

High-resolution simulations over a large tropical domain (∼20◦S–20◦N and 42◦E–180◦E) using both explicit and parameterized convection are analyzed and compared to observations during a 10-day case study of an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) event. The parameterized convection model simulations at both 40 km and 12 km grid spacing have a very weak MJO signal and little eastward propagation. A 4 km explicit convection simulation using Smagorinsky subgrid mixing in the vertical and horizontal dimensions exhibits the best MJO strength and propagation speed. 12 km explicit convection simulations also perform much better than the 12 km parameterized convection run, suggesting that the convection scheme, rather than horizontal resolution, is key for these MJO simulations. Interestingly, a 4 km explicit convection simulation using the conventional boundary layer scheme for vertical subgrid mixing (but still using Smagorinsky horizontal mixing) completely loses the large-scale MJO organization, showing that relatively high resolution with explicit convection does not guarantee a good MJO simulation. Models with a good MJO representation have a more realistic relationship between lower-free-tropospheric moisture and precipitation, supporting the idea that moisture-convection feedback is a key process for MJO propagation. There is also increased generation of available potential energy and conversion of that energy into kinetic energy in models with a more realistic MJO, which is related to larger zonal variance in convective heating and vertical velocity, larger zonal temperature variance around 200 hPa, and larger correlations between temperature and ascent (and between temperature and diabatic heating) between 500–400 hPa.

Case study part 1: how to calculate appropriate deterministic long-term toxicity to exposure rates (TERs) for birds and mammals

In the European Union, first-tier assessment of the long-term risk to birds and mammals from pesticides is based on calculation of a deterministic long-term toxicity/exposure ratio(TERlt). The ratio is developed from generic herbivores and insectivores and applied to all species. This paper describes two case studies that implement proposed improvements to the way long-term risk is assessed. These refined methods require calculation of a TER for each of five identified phases of reproduction (phase-specific TERs) and use of adjusted No Observed Effect Levels (NOELs)to incorporate variation in species sensitivity to pesticides. They also involve progressive refinement of the exposure estimate so that it applies to particular species, rather than generic indicators, and relates spraying date to onset of reproduction. The effect of using these new methods on the assessment of risk is described. Each refinement did not necessarily alter the calculated TER value in a way that was either predictable or consistent across both case studies. However, use of adjusted NOELs always reduced TERs, and relating spraying date to onset of reproduction increased most phase-specific TERs. The case studies suggested that the current first-tier TERlt assessment may underestimate risk in some circumstances and that phase-specific assessments can help identify appropriate risk-reduction measures. The way in which deterministic phase-specific assessments can currently be implemented to enhance first-tier assessment is outlined.

Case study part 2: probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals

Abstract: Long-term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al.(2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season’s end.

Case study modeling of turbulent and mesoscale fluxes over the BOREAS region

Results from aircraft and surface observations provided evidence for the existence of mesoscale circulations over the Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) domain. Using an integrated approach that included the use of analytical modeling, numerical modeling, and data analysis, we have found that there are substantial contributions to the total budgets of heat over the BOREAS domain generated by mesoscale circulations. This effect is largest when the synoptic flow is relatively weak, yet it is present under less favorable conditions, as shown by the case study presented here. While further analysis is warranted to document this effect, the existence of mesoscale flow is not surprising, since it is related to the presence of landscape patches, including lakes, which are of a size on the order of the local Rossby radius and which have spatial differences in maximum sensible heat flux of about 300 W m−2. We have also analyzed the vertical temperature profile simulated in our case study as well as high-resolution soundings and we have found vertical profiles of temperature change above the boundary layer height, which we attribute in part to mesoscale contributions. Our conclusion is that in regions with organized landscapes, such as BOREAS, even with relatively strong synoptic winds, dynamical scaling criteria should be used to assess whether mesoscale effects should be parameterized or explicitly resolved in numerical models of the atmosphere.

An organisational semiotics inspired information architecture: pervasive healthcare as a case study

Information architecture (IA) is defined as high level information requirements of an organisation. It is applied in areas such as information systems development, enterprise architecture, business processes management and organisational change management. Still, the lack of methods and theories prevents information architecture becoming a distinct discipline. Healthcare organisation is always seen as information intensive organisation, moreover in a pervasive healthcare environment. Pervasive healthcare aims to provide healthcare services to anyone, anywhere and anytime by incorporating mobile devices and wireless network. Information architecture hence plays an important role in information provisioning within the context of pervasive healthcare in order to support decision making and communication between clinician and patients. Organisational semiotics is one of the social technical approaches that contemplate information through the norms or activities performed within an organisation prior to pervasive healthcare implementation. This paper proposes a conceptual design of information architecture for pervasive healthcare. It is illustrated with a scenario of mental health patient monitoring.