Changes of the equilibrium line altitude since the Little Ice Age in the Nepalese Himalayas

Changes of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) in eastern Nepal have been studied using glacier inventory data. The toe-to-headwall altitude ratios (THARs) for individual glaciers were calculated for 1992, and used to estimate the ELA in 1959 and at the end of the LIA. THAR for debris-free glaciers is found to be smaller than for debris-covered glaciers. The ELAs for debris-covered glaciers are higher than those for debris-free glaciers in eastern Nepal. There is considerable variation in the reconstructed change in ELA (ΔELA) between glaciers within specific regions and between regions. This is not related to climate gradients, but results from differences in glacier aspect: southeast- and south-facing glaciers show larger ΔELAs in eastern Nepal than north- or west-facing glaciers. The data suggest that the rate of ELA rise may have accelerated in the last few decades. The limited number of climate records from Nepal, and analyses using a simple ELA–climate model, suggest that the higher rate of the ΔELA between 1959 and 1992 is a result of increased warming that occurred after the 1970s at higher altitudes in Nepal.

Landscape evolution and ice-sheet behaviour in a semi-arid polar environment: James Ross Island, NE Antarctic Peninsula

This study of landscape evolution presents both new modern and palaeo process-landform data, and analyses the behaviour of the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet through the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Holocene and to the present day. Six sediment-landform assemblages are described and interpreted for Ulu Peninsula, James Ross Island, NE Antarctic Peninsula: (1) the Glacier Ice and Snow Assemblage; (2) the Glacigenic Assemblage, which relates to LGM sediments and comprises both erratic-poor and erratic-rich drift, deposited by cold-based and wet-based ice and ice streams respectively; (3) the Boulder Train Assemblage, deposited during a Mid-Holocene glacier readvance; (4) the Ice-cored Moraine Assemblage, found in front of small cirque glaciers; (5) the Paraglacial Assemblage including scree, pebble-boulder lags, and littoral and fluvial processes; and (6) the Periglacial Assemblage including rock glaciers, protalus ramparts, blockfields, solifluction lobes and extensive patterned ground. The interplay between glacial, paraglacial and periglacial processes in this semi-arid polar environment is important in understanding polygenetic landforms. Crucially, cold-based ice was capable of sediment and landform genesis and modification. This landsystem model can aid the interpretation of past environments, but also provides new data to aid the reconstruction of the last ice sheet to overrun James Ross Island.

Late-Holocene changes in character and behaviour of land-terminating glaciers on James Ross Island, Antarctica

Virtually no information is available on the response of land-terminating Antarctic Peninsula glaciers to climate change on a centennial timescale. This paper analyses the topography, geomorphology and sedimentology of prominent moraines on James Ross Island, Antarctica, to determine geometric changes and to interpret glacier behaviour. The moraines are very likely due to a late-Holocene phase of advance and featured (1) shearing and thrusting within the snout, (2) shearing and deformation of basal sediment, (3) more supraglacial debris than at present and (4) short distances of sediment transport. Retreat of ∼100 m and thinning of 15–20 m has produced a loss of 0.1 km3 of ice. The pattern of surface lowering is asymmetric. These geometrical changes are suggested most simply to be due to a net negative mass balance caused by a drier climate. Comparisons of the moraines with the current glaciological surface structure of the glaciers permits speculation of a transition from a polythermal to a cold-based thermal regime. Small land-terminating glaciers in the northern Antarctic Peninsula region could be cooling despite a warming climate.

Evaluating the ability of process based models to project sea-level change

We evaluate the ability of process based models to reproduce observed global mean sea-level change. When the models are forced by changes in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing of the climate system and anthropogenic changes in land-water storage, the average of the modelled sea-level change for the periods 1900–2010, 1961–2010 and 1990–2010 is about 80%, 85% and 90% of the observed rise. The modelled rate of rise is over 1 mm yr−1 prior to 1950, decreases to less than 0.5 mm yr−1 in the 1960s, and increases to 3 mm yr−1 by 2000. When observed regional climate changes are used to drive a glacier model and an allowance is included for an ongoing adjustment of the ice sheets, the modelled sea-level rise is about 2 mm yr−1 prior to 1950, similar to the observations. The model results encompass the observed rise and the model average is within 20% of the observations, about 10% when the observed ice sheet contributions since 1993 are added, increasing confidence in future projections for the 21st century. The increased rate of rise since 1990 is not part of a natural cycle but a direct response to increased radiative forcing (both anthropogenic and natural), which will continue to grow with ongoing greenhouse gas emissions

Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

Deglaciation of the Caucasus Mountains, Russia/Georgia, in the 21st century observed with ASTER satellite imagery and aerial photograpy

Changes in the map area of 498 glaciers located on the Main Caucasus ridge (MCR) and on Mt. Elbrus in the Greater Caucasus Mountains (Russia and Georgia) were assessed using multispectral ASTER and panchromatic Landsat imagery with 15 m spatial resolution in 1999/2001 and 2010/2012. Changes in recession rates of glacier snouts between 1987–2001 and 2001–2010 were investigated using aerial photography and ASTER imagery for a sub-sample of 44 glaciers. In total, glacier area decreased by 4.7 ± 2.1% or 19.2 ± 8.7 km2 from 407.3 ± 5.4 km2 to 388.1 ± 5.2 km2. Glaciers located in the central and western MCR lost 13.4 ± 7.3 km2 (4.7 ± 2.5%) in total or 8.5 km2 (5.0 ± 2.4%) and 4.9 km2 (4.1 ± 2.7%) respectively. Glaciers on Mt. Elbrus, although located at higher elevations, lost 5.8 ± 1.4 km2 (4.9 ± 1.2%) of their total area. The recession rates of valley glacier termini increased between 1987–2000/01 and 2000/01–2010 (2000 for the western MCR and 2001 for the central MCR and Mt.~Elbrus) from 3.8 ± 0.8, 3.2 ± 0.9 and 8.3 ± 0.8 m yr−1 to 11.9 ± 1.1, 8.7 ± 1.1 and 14.1 ± 1.1 m yr−1 in the central and western MCR and on Mt. Elbrus respectively. The highest rate of increase in glacier termini retreat was registered on the southern slope of the central MCR where it has tripled. A positive trend in summer temperatures forced glacier recession, and strong positive temperature anomalies in 1998, 2006, and 2010 contributed to the enhanced loss of ice. An increase in accumulation season precipitation observed in the northern MCR since the mid-1980s has not compensated for the effects of summer warming while the negative precipitation anomalies, observed on the southern slope of the central MCR in the 1990s, resulted in stronger glacier wastage.

Millennial timescale regeneration in a moss from Antarctica

Mosses, dominant elements in the vegetation of polar and alpine regions, have well-developed stress tolerance features permitting cryptobiosis. However, direct regeneration after longer periods of cryptobiosis has been demonstrated only from herbarium and frozen material preserved for 20 years at most. Recent field observations of new moss growth on the surface of small moss clumps re-exposed from a cold-based glacier after about 400 years of ice cover have been accompanied by regeneration in culture from homogenised material, but there are no reported instances of regrowth occurring directly from older preserved material.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

Timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation in a high alpine stalagmite from Switzerland

The timing and nature of the penultimate deglaciation, also known as Termination II (T-II), is subject of controversial discussions due to the scarcity of precisely-dated palaeoclimate records. Here we present a new precisely-dated and highly-resolved multi-proxy stalagmite record covering T-II from the high alpine Schafsloch Cave in Switzerland, an area where climate is governed by the North Atlantic. The inception of stalagmite growth at 137.4 ± 1.4 kyr before present (BP) indicates the presence of drip water and cave air temperatures of above 0°C, and is related to a climate-induced change in the thermal state (from cold- to warm-based) of the glacier above the cave. The cessation of stalagmite growth between 133.1 ± 0.7 and 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is most likely related to distinct drop in temperature associated with Heinrich stadial 11. The resumption of stalagmite growth at 131.9 ± 0.6 kyr BP is accompanied by an abrupt increase in temperature and precipitation as indicated by distinct shifts in the oxygen and carbon isotopic composition as well as in trace element concentrations. The mid-point of T-II is around 131.8 ± 0.6 kyr BP in the Schafsloch Cave record is significantly earlier compared to the age of 129.1 ± 0.1 kyr BP in the Sanbao Cave record from China. The different ages between both records can be best explained by the competing effects of insolation and glacial boundary forcing on seasonality and snow cover extent in Eurasia.

Hazard Areas Associated with Major Volcanoes in the Cascade Mountain Range

The Cascade Mountain Range in Washington State is the site of several active volcanoes that have the potential to erupt which would deeply affect the lives of those who live near them. This study explores the hazard areas associated with the five largest volcanoes in the region: Mt. Baker, Glacier Peak, Mt. Rainier, Mt. Adams and Mt. St. Helens. It was determined which geographic regions would be affected by tephra, pyroclastic blasts and lahar flows and the associated populations that live in each of these areas. The level of emergency preparedness necessary for a volcanic eruption could be better determined based on the findings of this study.

Permian bivalves of the Taciba Formation, Itarare group, Parana basin, and their biostratigraphic significance

A small and poorly diversified bivalve fauna from Taciba Formation, Itarare Group, Parana Basin (State of Santa Catarina, Mafra Municipality), is described in this paper for the first time, based on new findings. The fauna is recorded in a 30 cm thick interval of fine sandstone locally at the top of Taciba Formation, in the Butia quarry. The studied fossil-bearing sand-stone bed is a marine intercalation recording a brief eustatic rise in sea-level, probably following glacier retreat and climate amelioration at the end of a broad glacial scenario. The fauna is mainly dominated by productid brachiopods, which are not described here, and rare mollusk shells (bivalves and gastropods). Two bivalve species were identified: Myonia argentinensis (Harrington, 1955), and Aviculopecten multiscalptus (Thomas, 1928). The presence of Myonia argentinensis is note-worthy since this species is also present in the Baitaca assemblage found in marine siltstones (Baitaca assemblage) of the Rio do Sul Formation, cropping out at the Teixeira Soares region, Parana State. This species is also recorded in the bivalve fauna from the Bonete Formation, Pillahinco Group, Sauce Grande Basin, Buenos Aires Province, in Argentina. Hence, the marine bivalves of the Taciba Formation are associated with the transgressive event that characterizes the Eurydesma fauna, indicating a Late Asselian-Sakmarian age for the bivalve fauna. Presence of the Myonia argentinensis megadesmid species reinforces the Gondwanic nature of the studied fauna.

Glacially striated, soft sediment surfaces on late Paleozoic tillite at São Luiz do Purunã, PR

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: summary 2010

Spanish version available at the Library

Paleoambiente e proveniência da formação cabeças da bacia do Parnaíba: evidências da glaciação famenniana e implicações na potencialidade do reservatório

O histórico de prospecção de hidrocarbonetos da Bacia Paleozoica do Parnaíba, situada no norte-nordeste do Brasil, sempre foi considerado desfavorável quando comparado aos super-reservatórios estimados do Pré-Sal das bacias da Margem Atlântica e até mesmo interiores, como a Bacia do Solimões. No entanto, a descoberta de gás natural em depósitos da superseqüência mesodevoniana-eocarbonífera do Grupo Canindé, que incluem as formações Pimenteiras, Cabeças e Longá, impulsionou novas pesquisas no intuito de refinar a caracterização paleoambiental, paleogeográfica, bem como, entender o sistema petrolífero, os possíveis plays e a potencialidade do reservatório Cabeças. A avaliação faciológica e estratigráfica com ênfase no registro da tectônica glacial, em combinação com a geocronologia de zircão detrítico permitiu interpretar o paleoambiente e a proveniência do reservatório Cabeças. Seis associações de fácies agrupadas em sucessões aflorantes, com espessura máxima de até 60m registram a evolução de um sistema deltaico Devoniano influenciado por processos glaciais principalmente no topo da unidade. 1) frente deltaica distal, composta por argilito maciço, conglomerado maciço, arenito com acamamento maciço, laminação plana e estratificação cruzada sigmoidal 2) frente deltaica proximal, representada pelas fácies arenito maciço, arenito com laminação plana, arenito com estratificação cruzada sigmoidal e conglomerado maciço; 3) planície deltaica, representada pelas fácies argilito laminado, arenito maciço, arenito com estratificação cruzada acanalada e conglomerado maciço; 4) shoreface glacial, composta pelas fácies arenito com marcas onduladas e arenito com estratificação cruzada hummocky; 5) depósitos subglaciais, que englobam as fácies diamictito maciço, diamictito com pods de arenito e brecha intraformacional; e 6) frente deltaica de degelo, constituída pelas fácies arenito maciço, arenito deformado, arenito com laminação plana, arenito com laminação cruzada cavalgante e arenito com estratificação cruzada sigmoidal. Durante o Fammeniano (374-359 Ma) uma frente deltaica dominada por processos fluviais progradava para NW (borda leste) e para NE (borda oeste) sobre uma plataforma influenciada por ondas de tempestade (Formação Pimenteiras). Na borda leste da bacia, o padrão de paleocorrente e o espectro de idades U-Pb em zircão detrítico indicam que o delta Cabeças foi alimentado por áreas fonte situadas a sudeste da Bacia do Parnaíba, provavelmente da Província Borborema. Grãos de zircão com idade mesoproterozóica (~ 1.039 – 1.009 Ma) e neoproterozóica (~ 654 Ma) são os mais populosos ao contrário dos grãos com idade arqueana (~ 2.508 – 2.678 Ma) e paleoproterozóica (~ 2.054 – 1.992 Ma). O grão de zircão concordante mais novo forneceu idade ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U de 501,20 ± 6,35 Ma (95% concordante) indicando idades de áreas-fonte cambrianas. As principais fontes de sedimentos do delta Cabeças na borda leste são produto de rochas do Domínio Zona Transversal e de plútons Brasilianos encontrados no embasamento a sudeste da Bacia do Parnaíba, com pequena contribuição de sedimentos oriundos de rochas do Domínio Ceará Central e da porção ocidental do Domínio Rio Grande do Norte. No Famenniano, a movimentação do supercontinente Gondwana para o polo sul culminou na implantação de condições glaciais concomitantemente com o rebaixamento do nível do mar e exposição da região costeira. O avanço das geleiras sobre o embasamento e depósitos deltaicos gerou erosão, deposição de diamictons com clastos exóticos e facetados, além de estruturas glaciotectônicas tais como plano de descolamento, foliação, boudins, dobras, duplex, falhas e fraturas que refletem um cisalhamento tangencial em regime rúptil-dúctil. O substrato apresentava-se inconsolidado e saturados em água com temperatura levemente abaixo do ponto de fusão do gelo (permafrost quente). Corpos podiformes de arenito imersos em corpos lenticulares de diamicton foram formados pela ruptura de camadas pelo cisalhamento subglacial. Lentes de conglomerados esporádicas (dump structures) nos depósitos de shoreface sugere queda de detritos ligados a icebergs em fases de recuo da geleira. A elevação da temperatura no final do Famenniano reflete a rotação destral do Gondwana e migração do polo sul da porção ocidental da América do Sul e para o oeste da África. Esta nova configuração paleogeográfica posicionou a Bacia do Parnaíba em regiões subtropicais iniciando o recuo de geleiras e a influência do rebound isostático. O alívio de pressão é indicado pela geração de sills e diques clásticos, estruturas ball-and-pillow, rompimento de camadas e brechas. Falhas de cavalgamento associadas à diamictitos com foliação na borda oeste da bacia sugerem que as geleiras migravam para NNE. O contínuo aumento do nível do mar relativo propiciou a instalação de sedimentação deltaica durante o degelo e posteriormente a implantação de uma plataforma transgressiva (Formação Longá). Diamictitos interdigitados com depósitos de frente deltaica na porção superior da Formação Cabeças correspondem a intervalos com baixo volume de poros e podem representar trapas estratigráficas secundárias no reservatório. As anisotropias primárias subglaciais do topo da sucessão Cabeças, em ambas as bordas da Bacia do Parnaíba, estende a influência glacial e abre uma nova perspectiva sobre a potencialidade efetiva do reservatório Cabeças do sistema petrolífero Mesodevoniano-Eocarbonífero da referida bacia.