The strategic behavior of rational novices

There is a growing amount of experimental evidence that suggests people often deviate from the predictions of game theory. Some scholars attempt to explain the observations by introducing errors into behavioral models. However, most of these modifications are situation dependent and do not generalize. A new theory, called the rational novice model, is introduced as an attempt to provide a general theory that takes account of erroneous behavior. The rational novice model is based on two central principals. The first is that people systematically make inaccurate guesses when they are evaluating their options in a game-like situation. The second is that people treat their decisions similar to a portfolio problem. As a result, non optimal actions in a game theoretic sense may be included in the rational novice strategy profile with positive weights.

The rational novice model can be divided into two parts: the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept. In a theoretical chapter, the mathematics of the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept are introduced. The existence of the equilibrium is established. In addition, the Nash equilibrium is shown to be a special case of the rational novice equilibrium. In another chapter, the rational novice model is applied to a voluntary contribution game. Numerical methods were used to obtain the solution. The model is estimated with data obtained from the Palfrey and Prisbrey experimental study of the voluntary contribution game. It is found that the rational novice model explains the data better than the Nash model. Although a formal statistical test was not used, pseudo R^2 analysis indicates that the rational novice model is better than a Probit model similar to the one used in the Palfrey and Prisbrey study.

The rational novice model is also applied to a first price sealed bid auction. Again, computing techniques were used to obtain a numerical solution. The data obtained from the Chen and Plott study were used to estimate the model. The rational novice model outperforms the CRRAM, the primary Nash model studied in the Chen and Plott study. However, the rational novice model is not the best amongst all models. A sophisticated rule-of-thumb, called the SOPAM, offers the best explanation of the data.

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

Characterizing distribution rules for cost sharing games

In noncooperative cost sharing games, individually strategic agents choose resources based on how the welfare (cost or revenue) generated at each resource (which depends on the set of agents that choose the resource) is distributed. The focus is on finding distribution rules that lead to stable allocations, which is formalized by the concept of Nash equilibrium, e.g., Shapley value (budget-balanced) and marginal contribution (not budget-balanced) rules.

Recent work that seeks to characterize the space of all such rules shows that the only budget-balanced distribution rules that guarantee equilibrium existence in all welfare sharing games are generalized weighted Shapley values (GWSVs), by exhibiting a specific 'worst-case' welfare function which requires that GWSV rules be used. Our work provides an exact characterization of the space of distribution rules (not necessarily budget-balanced) for any specific local welfare functions remains, for a general class of scalable and separable games with well-known applications, e.g., facility location, routing, network formation, and coverage games.

We show that all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to GWSV rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. Therefore, it is neither the existence of some worst-case welfare function, nor the restriction of budget-balance, which limits the design to GWSVs. Also, in order to guarantee equilibrium existence, it is necessary to work within the class of potential games, since GWSVs result in (weighted) potential games.

We also provide an alternative characterization—all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to generalized weighted marginal contribution (GWMC) rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. This result is due to a deeper fundamental connection between Shapley values and marginal contributions that our proofs expose—they are equivalent given a transformation connecting their ground welfare functions. (This connection leads to novel closed-form expressions for the GWSV potential function.) Since GWMCs are more tractable than GWSVs, a designer can tradeoff budget-balance with computational tractability in deciding which rule to implement.

Coupled effects of mechanics, geometry, and chemistry on bio-membrane behavior

Lipid bilayer membranes are models for cell membranes--the structure that helps regulate cell function. Cell membranes are heterogeneous, and the coupling between composition and shape gives rise to complex behaviors that are important to regulation. This thesis seeks to systematically build and analyze complete models to understand the behavior of multi-component membranes.

We propose a model and use it to derive the equilibrium and stability conditions for a general class of closed multi-component biological membranes. Our analysis shows that the critical modes of these membranes have high frequencies, unlike single-component vesicles, and their stability depends on system size, unlike in systems undergoing spinodal decomposition in flat space. An important implication is that small perturbations may nucleate localized but very large deformations. We compare these results with experimental observations.

We also study open membranes to gain insight into long tubular membranes that arise for example in nerve cells. We derive a complete system of equations for open membranes by using the principle of virtual work. Our linear stability analysis predicts that the tubular membranes tend to have coiling shapes if the tension is small, cylindrical shapes if the tension is moderate, and beading shapes if the tension is large. This is consistent with experimental observations reported in the literature in nerve fibers. Further, we provide numerical solutions to the fully nonlinear equilibrium equations in some problems, and show that the observed mode shapes are consistent with those suggested by linear stability. Our work also proves that beadings of nerve fibers can appear purely as a mechanical response of the membrane.

Where Tori fear to tread : hypermassive neutron star remnants and absolute event horizons Or topics in computational general relativity

Computational general relativity is a field of study which has reached maturity only within the last decade. This thesis details several studies that elucidate phenomena related to the coalescence of compact object binaries. Chapters 2 and 3 recounts work towards developing new analytical tools for visualizing and reasoning about dynamics in strongly curved spacetimes. In both studies, the results employ analogies with the classical theory of electricity and magnitism, first (Ch. 2) in the post-Newtonian approximation to general relativity and then (Ch. 3) in full general relativity though in the absence of matter sources. In Chapter 4, we examine the topological structure of absolute event horizons during binary black hole merger simulations conducted with the SpEC code. Chapter 6 reports on the progress of the SpEC code in simulating the coalescence of neutron star-neutron star binaries, while Chapter 7 tests the effects of various numerical gauge conditions on the robustness of black hole formation from stellar collapse in SpEC. In Chapter 5, we examine the nature of pseudospectral expansions of non-smooth functions motivated by the need to simulate the stellar surface in Chapters 6 and 7. In Chapter 8, we study how thermal effects in the nuclear equation of state effect the equilibria and stability of hypermassive neutron stars. Chapter 9 presents supplements to the work in Chapter 8, including an examination of the stability question raised in Chapter 8 in greater mathematical detail.

Oxygen, carbon and hydrogen isotope studies of contact metamorphism

The O¹⁸/O¹⁶, C¹³/C¹², and D/H ratios have been determined for rocks and coexisting minerals from several granitic plutons and their contact metamorphic aureoles in northern Nevada, eastern California, central Colorado, and Texas, with emphasis on oxygen isotopes. A consistent order of O¹⁸/O¹⁶, C¹³/C¹², and D/H enrichment in coexisting minerals, and a correlation between isotopic fractionations among coexisting mineral pairs are in general observed, suggesting that mineral assemblages tend to approach isotopic equilibrium during contact metamorphism. In certain cases, a correlation is observed between oxygen isotopic fractionations of a mineral pair and sample distance from intrusive contacts. Isotopic temperatures generally show good agreement with heat flow considerations. Based on the experimentally determined quartz-muscovite O¹⁸/O¹⁶ fractionation calibration curve, temperatures are estimated to be 525 to 625°C at the contacts of the granitic stocks studied.

Small-scale oxygen isotope exchange effects between intrusive and country rock are observed over distances of 0.5 to 3 feet on both sides of the contacts; the isotopic gradients are typically 2 to 3 per mil per foot. The degree of oxygen isotopic exchange is essentially identical for different coexisting minerals. This presumably occurred through a diffusion-controlled recrystallization process. The size of the oxygen isotope equilibrium systems in the small-scale exchanged zones vary from about 1.5 cm to 30 cm. A xenolith and a re-entrant of country rock projecting into on intrusive hove both undergone much more extensive isotopic exchange (to hundreds of feet); they also show abnormally high isotopic temperatures. The marginal portions of most plutons have unusually high O¹⁸/O¹⁶ ratios compared to "normal" igneous rocks, presumably due to large-scale isotopic exchange with meta-sedimentary country rocks when the igneous rocks were essentially in a molten state. The isotopic data suggest that outward horizontal movement of H₂O into the contact metamorphic aureoles is almost negligible, but upward movement of H₂O may be important. Also, direct influx and absorption of water from the country rock may be significant in certain intrusive stocks.

Except in the exchanged zones, the O¹⁸/O¹⁶ ratios of pelitic rocks do not change appreciably during contact metamorphism, even in the cordierite and sillimanite grades; this is in contrast to regional metamorphic rocks which commonly decrease in O¹⁸ with increasing grade. Low O¹⁸/O¹⁶ and C¹³/C¹² ratios of the contact metamorphic marbles generally correlate well with the presence of calc-silicate minerals, indicating that the CO₂ liberated during metamorphic decarbonation reactions is enriched in both O¹⁸ and C¹³ relative to the carbonates.

The D/H ratios of biotites in the contact metamorphic rocks and their associated intrusions show a geographic correlation that is similar to that shown by the D/H ratios of meteoric surface waters, perhaps indicating that meteoric waters were present in the rocks during crystallization of the biotites.

Metasomatism and magmatic assimilation at a gabbro-limestone contact, Christmas Mountains, Big Bend region, Texas

A composite stock of alkaline gabbro and syenite is intrusive into limestone of the Del Carmen, Sue Peake and Santa Elena Formations at the northwest end of the Christmas Mountains. There is abundant evidence of solution of wallrock by magma but nowhere are gabbro and limestone in direct contact. The sequence of lithologies developed across the intrusive contact and across xenoliths is gabbro, pyroxenite, calc-silicate skarn, marble. Pyroxenite is made up of euhedral crystals of titanaugite and sphene in a leucocratic matrix of nepheline, Wollastonite and alkali feldspar. The uneven modal distribution of phases in pyroxenite and the occurrence' of nepheline syenite dikes, intrusive into pyroxenite and skarn, suggest that pyroxenite represents an accumulation of clinopyroxene "cemented" together by late-solidifying residual magma of nepheline syenite composition. Assimilation of limestone by gabbroic magma involves reactions between calcite and magma and/or crystals in equilibrium with magma and crystallization of phases in which the magma is saturated, to supply energy for the solution reaction. Gabbroic magma was saturated with plagioclase and clinopyroxene at the time of emplacement. The textural and mineralogic features of pyroxenite can be produced by the reaction 2( 1-X) CALCITE + AN_XAB_l-X = (1-X) NEPHELINE+ 2(1-X) WOLLASTONITE+ X ANORTHITE+ 2(1-X) CO₂. Plagioclase in pyroxenite has corroded margins and is rimmed by nepheline, suggestive of resorption by magma. Anorthite and wollastonite enter solid solution in titanaugite. For each mole of calcite dissolved, approximately one mole of clinopyroxene was crystallized. Thus the amount of limestone that may be assimilated is limited by the concentration of potential clinopyroxene in the magma. Wollastonite appears as a phase when magma has been depleted in iron and magnesium by crystallization of titanaugite. The predominance of mafic and ultramafic compositions among contaminated rocks and their restriction to a narrow zone along the intrusive contact provides little evidence for the generation of a significant volume of desilicated magma as a result of limestone assimilation.

Within 60 m of the intrusive contact with the gabbro, nodular chert in the Santa Elena Limestone reacted with the enveloping marble to form spherical nodules of high-temperature calc-silicate minerals. The phases wollastonite, rankinite, spurrite, tilleyite and calcite, form a series of sharply-bounded, concentric monomineralic and two-phase shells which record a step-wise decrease in silica content from the core of a nodule to its rim. Mineral zones in the nodules vary 'with distance from the gabbro as follows:

0-5 m CALCITE + SPURRITE + RANKINITE + WOLLASTONITE
5-16 m CALCITE + TILLEYITE ± SPURRITE + RANKINITE + WOLLASTONITE
16-31 m CALCITE + TILLEYITE + WOLLASTONITE
31-60 m CALCITE + WOLLASTONITE
60-plus CALCITE + QUARTZ

The mineral of a one-phase zone is compatible with the phases bounding it on either side but these phases are incompatible in the same volume of P-T-X_CO2.

Growth of a monomineralio zone is initiated by reaction between minerals of adjacent one-phase zones which become unstable with rising temperature to form a thin layer of a new single phase that separates the reactants and is compatible with both of them. Because the mineral of the new zone is in equilibrium with the phases at both of its contacts, gradients in the chemical potentials of the exchangeable components are established across it. Although zone boundaries mark discontinuities in the gradients of bulk composition, two-phase equilibria at the contacts demonstrate that the chemical potentials are continuous. Hence, Ca, Si and CO₂ were redistributed in the growing nodule by diffusion. A monomineralic zone grows at the expense of an adjacent zone by reaction between diffusing components and the mineral of the adjacent zone. Equilibria between two phases at zone boundaries buffers the chemical potentials of the diffusing species. Thus, within a monomineralic zone, the chemical potentials of the diffusing components are controlled external to the local assemblage by the two-phase equilibria at the zone boundaries.

Mineralogically zoned calc-silicate skarn occurs as a narrow band that separates pyroxenite and marble along the intrusive contact and forms a rim on marble xenoliths in gabbro. Skarn consists of melilite or idocrase pseudomorphs of melili te, one or two . stoichiometric calcsilicate phases and accessory Ti-Zr garnet, perovskite and magnetite. The sequence of mineral zones from pyroxenite to marble, defined by a characteristic calc-silicate, is wollastonite, rankinite, spurrite, calcite. Mineral assemblages of adjacent skarn zones are compatible and the set of zones in a skarn band defines a facies type, indicating that the different mineral assemblages represent different bulk compositions recrystallized under identical conditions. The number of phases in each zone is less than the number that might be expected to result from metamorphism of a general bulk composition under conditions of equilibrium, trivariant in P, T and u_CO2. The "special" bulk composition of each zone is controlled by reaction between phases of the zones bounding it on either side. The continuity of the gradients of composition of melilite and garnet solid solutions across the skarn is consistent with the local equilibrium hypothesis and verifies that diffusion was the mechanism of mass transport. The formula proportions of Ti and Zr in garnet from skarn vary antithetically with that of Si Which systematically decreases from pyroxenite to marble. The chemical potential of Si in each skarn zone was controlled by the coexisting stoichiometric calc-silicate phases in the assemblage. Thus the formula proportion of Si in garnet is a direct measure of the chemical potential of Si from point to point in skarn. Reaction between gabbroic magma saturated with plagioclase and clinopyroxene produced nepheline pyroxenite and melilite-wollastonite skarn. The calcsilicate zones result from reaction between calcite and wollastonite to form spurrite and rankinite.

Low Climate Stabilisation under Diverse Growth and Convergence Scenarios

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Cooperative and market-based solutions to pollution abatement problems

This work concerns itself with the possibility of solutions, both cooperative and market based, to pollution abatement problems. In particular, we are interested in pollutant emissions in Southern California and possible solutions to the abatement problems enumerated in the 1990 Clean Air Act. A tradable pollution permit program has been implemented to reduce emissions, creating property rights associated with various pollutants.

Before we discuss the performance of market-based solutions to LA's pollution woes, we consider the existence of cooperative solutions. In Chapter 2, we examine pollutant emissions as a trans boundary public bad. We show that for a class of environments in which pollution moves in a bi-directional, acyclic manner, there exists a sustainable coalition structure and associated levels of emissions. We do so via a new core concept, one more appropriate to modeling cooperative emissions agreements (and potential defection from them) than the standard definitions.

However, this leaves the question of implementing pollution abatement programs unanswered. While the existence of a cost-effective permit market equilibrium has long been understood, the implementation of such programs has been difficult. The design of Los Angeles' REgional CLean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) alleviated some of the implementation problems, and in part exacerbated them. For example, it created two overlapping cycles of permits and two zones of permits for different geographic regions. While these design features create a market that allows some measure of regulatory control, they establish a very difficult trading environment with the potential for inefficiency arising from the transactions costs enumerated above and the illiquidity induced by the myriad assets and relatively few participants in this market.

It was with these concerns in mind that the ACE market (Automated Credit Exchange) was designed. The ACE market utilizes an iterated combined-value call market (CV Market). Before discussing the performance of the RECLAIM program in general and the ACE mechanism in particular, we test experimentally whether a portfolio trading mechanism can overcome market illiquidity. Chapter 3 experimentally demonstrates the ability of a portfolio trading mechanism to overcome portfolio rebalancing problems, thereby inducing sufficient liquidity for markets to fully equilibrate.

With experimental evidence in hand, we consider the CV Market's performance in the real world. We find that as the allocation of permits reduces to the level of historical emissions, prices are increasing. As of April of this year, prices are roughly equal to the cost of the Best Available Control Technology (BACT). This took longer than expected, due both to tendencies to mis-report emissions under the old regime, and abatement technology advances encouraged by the program. Vve also find that the ACE market provides liquidity where needed to encourage long-term planning on behalf of polluting facilities.

Voting games with incomplete information

We examine voting situations in which individuals have incomplete information over each others' true preferences. In many respects, this work is motivated by a desire to provide a more complete understanding of so-called probabilistic voting.

Chapter 2 examines the similarities and differences between the incentives faced by politicians who seek to maximize expected vote share, expected plurality, or probability of victory in single member: single vote, simple plurality electoral systems. We find that, in general, the candidates' optimal policies in such an electoral system vary greatly depending on their objective function. We provide several examples, as well as a genericity result which states that almost all such electoral systems (with respect to the distributions of voter behavior) will exhibit different incentives for candidates who seek to maximize expected vote share and those who seek to maximize probability of victory.

In Chapter 3, we adopt a random utility maximizing framework in which individuals' preferences are subject to action-specific exogenous shocks. We show that Nash equilibria exist in voting games possessing such an information structure and in which voters and candidates are each aware that every voter's preferences are subject to such shocks. A special case of our framework is that in which voters are playing a Quantal Response Equilibrium (McKelvey and Palfrey (1995), (1998)). We then examine candidate competition in such games and show that, for sufficiently large electorates, regardless of the dimensionality of the policy space or the number of candidates, there exists a strict equilibrium at the social welfare optimum (i.e., the point which maximizes the sum of voters' utility functions). In two candidate contests we find that this equilibrium is unique.

Finally, in Chapter 4, we attempt the first steps towards a theory of equilibrium in games possessing both continuous action spaces and action-specific preference shocks. Our notion of equilibrium, Variational Response Equilibrium, is shown to exist in all games with continuous payoff functions. We discuss the similarities and differences between this notion of equilibrium and the notion of Quantal Response Equilibrium and offer possible extensions of our framework.