A value chain approach to animal diseases risk management: technical foundations and practical framework for field application

Classical risk assessment approaches for animal diseases are influenced by the probability of release, exposure and consequences of a hazard affecting a livestock population. Once a pathogen enters into domestic livestock, potential risks of exposure and infection both to animals and people extend through a chain of economic activities related to producing, buying and selling of animals and products. Therefore, in order to understand economic drivers of animal diseases in different ecosystems and to come up with effective and efficient measures to manage disease risks from a country or region, the entire value chain and related markets for animal and product needs to be analysed to come out with practical and cost effective risk management options agreed by actors and players on those value chains. Value chain analysis enriches disease risk assessment providing a framework for interdisciplinary collaboration, which seems to be in increasing demand for problems concerning infectious livestock diseases. The best way to achieve this is to ensure that veterinary epidemiologists and social scientists work together throughout the process at all levels.

Modelling niches of arbitrary shape in genetic algorithms using Niche Linkage in the Dynamic Niche Clustering framework

We present some additions to a fuzzy variable radius niche technique called Dynamic Niche Clustering (DNC) (Gan and Warwick, 1999; 2000; 2001) that enable the identification and creation of niches of arbitrary shape through a mechanism called Niche Linkage. We show that by using this mechanism it is possible to attain better feature extraction from the underlying population.

A new modelling framework for statistical cumulus dynamics

We propose a new modelling framework suitable for the description of atmospheric convective systems as a collection of distinct plumes. The literature contains many examples of models for collections of plumes in which strong simplifying assumptions are made, a diagnostic dependence of convection on the large-scale environment and the limit of many plumes often being imposed from the outset. Some recent studies have sought to remove one or the other of those assumptions. The proposed framework removes both, and is explicitly time-dependent and stochastic in its basic character. The statistical dynamics of the plume collection are defined through simple probabilistic rules applied at the level of individual plumes, and van Kampen's system size expansion is then used to construct the macroscopic limit of the microscopic model. Through suitable choices of the microscopic rules, the model is shown to encompass previous studies in the appropriate limits, and to allow their natural extensions beyond those limits.

Towards a European tephrochronological framework for Termination 1 and the Early Holocene

The record of deposition of tephras in Europe and the North Atlantic during the period 18.5–8.0 ¹⁴C ka BP (the Last Termination and Early Holocene) is reviewed. Altogether, 34 tephras originating from four main volcanic provinces (Iceland, the Eifel district, the Massif Central and Italy) have been identified so far in geological sequences spanning this time–interval. Most of the records have been based, until very recently, on observations of visible layers of tephras. Here, we report on the potential for extending the areas over which some of the tephras can be traced by the search for layers of micro–tephra, which are not visible to the naked eye, and on the use of geochemical methods to correlate them with known tephra horizons. This approach has greatly extended the area in Northern Europe over which the Vedde Ash can be traced. The same potential exists in southern Europe, which is demonstrated for the first time by the discovery of a distinct layer of micro–tephra of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff in a site in the Northern Apennines in Italy, far to the north of the occurrences of visible records of this tephra. The paper closes by considering the potential for developing a robust European tephrostratigraphy to underpin the chronology of records of the Last Termination and Early Holocene, thereby promoting a better understanding of the nature, timing and environmental effects of the abrupt climatic changes that characterized this period.

Towards an improved understanding of farmers' behaviour: the integrative agent-centred (IAC) framework

An effective approach to research on farmers' behaviour is based on: i) an explicit and well-motivated behavioural theory; ii) an integrative approach; and iii) understanding feedback processes and dynamics. While current approaches may effectively tackle some of them, they often fail to combine them together. The paper presents the integrative agent-centred (IAC) framework, which aims at filling this gap. It functions in accordance with these three pillars and provides a conceptual structure to understand farmers' behaviour in agricultural systems. The IAC framework is agent-centred and supports the understanding of farmers' behavior consistently with the perspective of agricultural systems as complex social-ecological systems. It combines different behavioural drivers, bridges between micro and macro levels, and depicts a potentially varied model of human agency. The use of the framework in practice is illustrated through two studies on pesticide use among smallholders in Colombia. The examples show how the framework can be implemented to derive policy implications to foster a transition towards more sustainable agricultural practices. The paper finally suggests that the framework can support different research designs for the study of agents' behaviour in agricultural and social-ecological systems.