One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

The backfilled GEI : a cross-capture modality gait feature for frontal and side-view gait recognition

In this paper, we propose a novel direction for gait recognition research by proposing a new capture-modality independent, appearance-based feature which we call the Back-filled Gait Energy Image (BGEI). It can can be constructed from both frontal depth images, as well as the more commonly used side-view silhouettes, allowing the feature to be applied across these two differing capturing systems using the same enrolled database. To evaluate this new feature, a frontally captured depth-based gait dataset was created containing 37 unique subjects, a subset of which also contained sequences captured from the side. The results demonstrate that the BGEI can effectively be used to identify subjects through their gait across these two differing input devices, achieving rank-1 match rate of 100%, in our experiments. We also compare the BGEI against the GEI and GEV in their respective domains, using the CASIA dataset and our depth dataset, showing that it compares favourably against them. The experiments conducted were performed using a sparse representation based classifier with a locally discriminating input feature space, which show significant improvement in performance over other classifiers used in gait recognition literature, achieving state of the art results with the GEI on the CASIA dataset.

Global forest governance

This book identifies the fundamental legal principles and the governance requirements of sustainable forest management. An analytical model for assessing forest regulation is created which identifies the doctrinal concepts that underpin forest regulation (justice, property, sovereignty and governance). It also highlights the dominant public international institutions involved in forest regulation (UNFF, UNFCCC and WB) which is followed by analysis of non-state international forest regulation (forest certification and ecosystem markets). The book concludes by making a number of practical recommendations for reform of global forest governance arrangements and suggested reforms for individual international forest institutions.

International entrepreneurship for SME business growth : a resource and dynamic capability view of the firm : an internet context

This research explores the relationship between international business Internet capabilities and international entrepreneurial characteristics. It has been suggested, that the accumulation of a firms Internet capability can assist international operations, especially when operating in fast changing dynamic environments. However, the international entrepreneurial characteristics which are seen as a precursor to leveraging such capabilities are still vague. Given this finding a conceptual framework is constructed and research issues are then developed in order to focus attention on the relationship between the Internet and a firm’s resource base, dynamic capabilities and international market performance.

Opportunities for forest finance under the International climate change regime

The international climate change regime has the potential to increase revenue available for forest restoration projects in Commonwealth nations. There are three mechanisms which could be used to fund forest projects aimed at forest conservation, forest restoration and sustainable forest management. The first forest funding opportunity arises under the clean development mechanism, a flexibility mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. The clean development mechanism allows Annex I parties (industrialised nations) to invest in emission reduction activities in non-Annex 1 (developing countries) and the establishment of forest sinks is an eligible clean development mechanism activity. Secondly, parties to the Kyoto Protocol are able to include sustainable forest management activities in their national carbon accounting. The international rules concerning this are called the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Guidelines. Thirdly, it is anticipated that at the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations that a Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) instrument will be created. This will provide a direct funding mechanism for those developing countries with tropical forests. Payments made under a REDD arrangement will be based upon the developing country with tropical forest cover agreeing to protect and conserve a designated forest estate. These three funding options available under the international climate change regime demonstrate that there is potential for forest finance within the regime. These opportunities are however hindered by a number of technical and policy barriers which prevent the ability of the regime to significantly increase funding for forest projects. There are two types of carbon markets, compliance carbon markets (Kyoto based) and voluntary carbon markets. Voluntary carbon markets are more flexible then compliance markets and as such offer potential to increase revenue available for sustainable forest projects.

Australia and Forest Carbon Partnerships : Indigenous Land Rights

One of the ways in which indigenous communities seek justice is through the formal recognition of their sovereign rights to land. Such recognition allows indigenous groups to maintain a physical and spiritual connection with their land and continue customary management of their land. Indigenous groups world over face significant hurdles in getting their customary rights to land recognized by legal systems. One of the main difficulties for indigenous groups in claiming customary land rights is the existence of a range of conflicting legal entitlements attaching to the land in question. In Australia, similar to New Zealand and Canada legal recognition to customary land is recognized through a grant of native title rights or through the establishment of land use agreement. In other jurisdictions such as Indonesia and Papua New Guinea a form of customary land title has been preserved and is recognized by the legal system. The implementation of REDD+ and other forms of forest carbon investment activities compounds the already complex arrangements surrounding legal recognition of customary land rights. Free, prior and informed consent of indigenous groups is essential for forest carbon investment on customary land. The attainment of such consent in practice remains challenging due to the number of conflicting interests often associated with forested land. This paper examines Australia’s experience in recongising indigenous land rights under its International Forest Carbon Initiative and under its domestic Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act (Australia) 2011. Australia’s International Forest Carbon initiative has a budget of $273 million dollars. In 2008 the governments of Australia and Indonesia signed the Indonesia-Australia Forest Carbon Partnership Agreement. This paper will examine the indigenous land tenure and justice lessons learned from the implementation of the Kalimantan Forest and Climate Partnership (KFCP). The KFCP is $30 million dollar project taking place over 120,000 hectares of degraded and forested peatland in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. The KFCP project site contains seven villages of the Dayak Ngdu indigenous people. In 2011 Australia established a domestic Forest Carbon Initiative, which seeks to provide new economic opportunities for farmers, forest growers and indigenous landholders while helping the environmental by reducing carbon pollution. This paper will explore the manner in which indigenous people are able to participate within these scheme noting the limits and opportunities in deriving co-benefits for indigenous people in Australia under this scheme.

ECMO : the clinician’s view

Background: Extra corporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is a complex rescue therapy used to provide cardiac and/or respiratory support for critically ill patients who have failed maximal conventional medical management. ECMO is based on a modified cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) circuit, and can provide cardiopulmonary support for up-to several months. It can be used in a veno venous configuration for isolated respiratory failure, (VV-ECMO), or in a veno arterial configuration (VA-ECMO) where support is necessary for cardiac +/- respiratory failure. The ECMO circuit consists of five main components: large bore cannulae (access cannulae) for drainage of the venous system, and return cannulae to either the venous (in VV-ECMO) or arterial (in VA ECMO) system. An oxygenator, with a vast surface area of hollow filaments, allows addition of oxygen and removal of carbon dioxide; a centrifugal blood pump allows propulsion of blood through the circuit at upto 10 L/minute; a control module and a thermoregulatory unit, which allows for exact temperature control of the extra corporeal blood. Methods: The first successful use of ECMO for ARDS in adults occurred in 1972, and its use has become more commonplace over the last 30 years, supported by the improvement in design and biocompatibility of the equipment, which has reduced the morbidity associated with this modality. Whilst the use of ECMO in neonatal population has been supported by numerous studies, the evidence upon which ECMO was integrated into adult practice was substantially less robust. Results: Recent data, including the CESAR study (Conventional Ventilatory Support versus Extra corporeal membrane oxygenation for Severe Respiratory failure) has added a degree of evidence to the role of ECMO in such a patient population. The CESAR study analysed 180 patients, and confirmed that ECMO was associated with an improved rate of survival. More recently, ECMO has been utilized in numerous situations within the critical care area, including support in high-risk percutaneous interventions in cardiac catheter lab; the operating room, emergency department, as well in specialized inter-hospital retrieval services. The increased understanding of the risk:benefit profile of ECMO, along with a reduction in morbidity associated with its use will doubtless lead to a substantial rise in the utilisation of this modality. As with all extra-corporeal circuits, ECMO opposes the basic premises of the mammalian inflammation and coagulation cascade where blood comes into foreign circulation, both these cascades are activated. Anti-coagulation is readily dealt with through use of agents such as heparin, but the inflammatory excess, whilst less macroscopically obvious, continues un-abated. Platelet consumption and neutrophil activation occur rapidly, and the clinician is faced with balancing the need of anticoagulation for the circuit, against haemostasis in an acutely bleeding patient. Alterations in pharmacokinetics may result in inadequate levels of disease modifying therapeutics, such as antibiotics, hence paradoxically delaying recovery from conditions such as pneumonia. Key elements of nutrition and the innate immune system maysimilarly be affected. Summary: This presentation will discuss the basic features of ECMO to the nonspecialist, and review the clinical conundrum faced by the team treating these most complex cases.

Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50 km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk.

How safe is safe enough? : a socio-technical view of low-cost level crossing safety

Low-cost level crossings are often criticized as being unsafe. Does a SIL (safety integrity level) rating make the railway crossing any safer? This paper discusses how a supporting argument might be made for low-cost level crossing warning devices with lower levels of safety integrity and issues such as risk tolerability and derivation of tolerable hazard rates for system-level hazards. As part of the design of such systems according to fail-safe principles, the paper considers the assumptions around the pre-defined safe states of existing warning devices and how human factors issues around such states can give rise to additional hazards.

Multi-level knowledge transfer in software development outsourcing projects : the agency theory view

In recent years, software development outsourcing has become even more complex. Outsourcing partner have begun‘re- outsourcing’ components of their projects to other outsourcing companies to minimize cost and gain efficiencies, creating a multi-level hierarchy of outsourcing. This research in progress paper presents preliminary findings of a study designed to understand knowledge transfer effectiveness of multi-level software development outsourcing projects. We conceptualize the SD-outsourcing entities using the Agency Theory. This study conceptualizes, operationalises and validates the concept of Knowledge Transfer as a three-phase multidimensional formative index of 1) Domain knowledge, 2) Communication behaviors, and 3) Clarity of requirements. Data analysis identified substantial, significant differences between the Principal and the Agent on two of the three constructs. Using Agency Theory, supported by preliminary findings, the paper also provides prescriptive guidelines of reducing the friction between the Principal and the Agent in multi-level software outsourcing.

ICT in vocational education and training: a view of information and communication technology in vocational education in New Zealand

This report looks at opportunities in relation to what is either already available or starting to take off in Information and Communication Technology (ICT). ICT focuses on the entire system of information, communication, processes and knowledge within an organisation. It focuses on how technology can be implemented to serve the information and communication needs of people and organisations. An ICT system involves a combination of work practices, information, people and a range of technologies and applications organised to make the business or organisation fully functional and efficient, and to accomplish goals in an organisation. Our focus is on vocational, workbased education in New Zealand. It is not about eLearning, although we briefly touch on the topic. We provide a background on vocational education in New Zealand, cover what we consider to be key trends impacting workbased, vocational education and training (VET), and offer practical suggestions for leveraging better value from ICT initiatives across the main activities of an Industry Training Organisation (ITO). We use a learning value chain approach to demonstrate the main functions ITOs engage in and also use this approach as the basis for developing and prioritising an ICT strategy. Much of what we consider in this report is applicable to the wider tertiary education sector as it relates to life-long learning. We consider ICT as an enabler that: a) connects education businesses (all types including tertiary education institutions) to learners, their career decisions and their learning, and as well, b) enables those same businesses to run more efficiently. We suggest that these two sets of activities are considered as interconnected parts of the same education or training business ICT strategy.

Cryptic diversity and evolutionary relationships among Australian closed-forest Melomys (Rodentia: Muridae) and related Australo-Papuan mosaic-tailed rats

This thesis investigates patterns of evolution in a group of native Australo-Papuan rodents. Past climatic change and associated sea level fluctuations, and fragmentation of wet forests in eastern Australia has facilitated rapid radiation, diversification and speciation in this group. This study adds to our understanding of the evolution of Australia’s rainforest fauna and describes the evolutionary relationships of a new genus of Australian rodent.

Proposed REDD+ project for the Sundarbans : legal and institutional issues

Sundarbans, a Ramsar and World Heritage site, is the largest single block of tidal halophytic mangrove forest in the world covering parts of Bangladesh and India. Natural mangroves were very common along the entire coast of Bangladesh. However, all other natural mangrove forests, including the Chakaria Sundarbans with 21,000 hectares of mangrove, have been cleared for shrimp cultivation. Against this backdrop, the Forest Department of Bangladesh has developed project design documents for a project called ‘Collaborative REDD+ Improved Forest Management (IFM) Sundarbans Project’ (CRISP) to save the only remaining natural mangrove forest of the country. This project, involving conservation of 412,000 ha of natural mangrove forests, is expected to generate, over a 30-year period, a total emissions reduction of about 6.4 million tons of CO2. However, the successful implementation of this project involves a number of critical legal and institutional issues. It may involve complex legal issues such as forest ownership, forest use rights, rights of local people and carbon rights. It may also involve institutional reforms. Ensuring good governance of the proposed project is very vital considering the failure of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) funded and Bangladesh Forest Department managed ‘Sundarbans Biodiversity Conservation Project’. Considering this previous experience, this paper suggests that a comprehensive legal and institutional review and reform is needed for the successful implementation of the proposed CRISP project. This paper argues that without ensuring local people’s rights and their participation, no project can be successful in the Sundarbans. Moreover, corruption of local and international officials may be a serious hurdle in the successful implementation of the project.

Meningococcal disease - 2 NT cases in August 1997 - The view from CDC

On 1 August 1997, the Friday afternoon of the start of a three day weekend (NT Picnic Day Monday 4 August) a case of suspected meningococcal disease was notified to CDC Katherine by an experienced, long serving, local GP...