The impact of Medicare, Medicaid and Schip Extension Act of 2007 (MMSEA) on the long term acute care hospitals

The Long Term Acute Care Hospitals (LTACH), which serve medically complex patients, have grown tremendously in recent years, by expanding the number of Medicare patient admissions and thus increasing Medicare expenditures (Stark 2004). In an attempt to mitigate the rapid growth of the LTACHs and reduce related Medicare expenditures, Congress enacted Section 114 of P.L. 110-173 (§114) of the Medicare, Medicaid and SCHIP Extension Act (MMSEA) in December 29, 2007 to regulate the LTCAHs industry. MMSEA increased the medical necessity reviews for Medicare admissions, imposed a moratorium on new LTCAHs, and allowed the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to recoup Medicare overpayments for unnecessary admissions. ^ This study examines whether MMSEA impacted LTACH admissions, operating margins and efficiency. These objectives were analyzed by comparing LTACH data for 2008 (post MMSEA) and data for 2006-2007 (pre-MMSEA). Secondary data were utilized from the American Hospital Association (AHA) database and the American Hospital Directory (AHD).^ This is a longitudinal retrospective study with a total sample of 55 LTACHs, selected from 396 LTACHs facilities that were fully operational during the study period of 2006-2008. The results of the research found no statistically significant change in total Medicare admissions; instead there was a small but not statistically significant reduction of 5% in Medicare admissions for 2008 in comparison to those for 2006. A statistically significant decrease in mean operating margins was confirmed between the years 2006 and 2008. The LTACHs' Technical Efficiency (TE), as computed by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), showed significant decrease in efficiency over the same period. Thirteen of the 55 LTACHs in the sample (24%) in 2006 were calculated as “efficient” utilizing the DEA analysis. This dropped to 13% (7/55) in 2008. Longitudinally, the decrease in efficiency using the DEA extension technique (Malmquist Index or MI) indicated a deterioration of 10% in efficiency over the same period. Interestingly, however, when the sample was stratified into high efficient versus low efficient subgroups (approximately 25% in each group), a comparison of the MIs suggested a significant improvement in Efficiency Change (EC) for the least efficient (MI 0.92022) and reduction in efficiency for the most efficient LTACHs (MI = 1.38761) over same period. While a reduction in efficiency for the most efficient is unexpected, it is not particularly surprising, since efficiency measure can vary over time. An improvement in efficiency, however, for the least efficient should be expected as those LTACHs begin to manage expenses (and controllable resources) more carefully to offset the payment/reimbursement pressures on their margins from MMSEA.^

Extension of k-ratio methods to rank-based analyses

An extension of k-ratio multiple comparison methods to rank-based analyses is described. The new method is analogous to the Duncan-Godbold approximate k-ratio procedure for unequal sample sizes or correlated means. The close parallel of the new methods to the Duncan-Godbold approach is shown by demonstrating that they are based upon different parameterizations as starting points.^ A semi-parametric basis for the new methods is shown by starting from the Cox proportional hazards model, using Wald statistics. From there the log-rank and Gehan-Breslow-Wilcoxon methods may be seen as score statistic based methods.^ Simulations and analysis of a published data set are used to show the performance of the new methods. ^

Changes in 911 call volume and type during Hurricane Ike and the implementation and usefulness of the TeleHealth Nurse system for the Houston Fire Department

This study examined both changing call volume and type with resulting effect of TeleHealth Nurse, the Houston Fire Department's (HFD) telephone nurse line, on call burden during Hurricane Ike. On September 13, 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall in the Galveston area and continued north through Houston resulting in catastrophic damages in infrastructure and posing a public health threat. The overall goal of this study looked at data from Houston Fire Department to obtain a better understanding of the needs of citizens before, during, and after a hurricane. This study looked at four aspects of emergency response from HFD. The first section looked at call volumes surrounding the time of Hurricane Ike in 2008 compared to the same time period in 2007. The data showed a 12% increase in calls surrounding Hurricane Ike compared to previous years with a p value <.001. Next, the study evaluated the types of calls prevalent during Hurricane Ike compared to the same time period in 2007. The data showed a statistically significant increase in chronic health problems such as diabetes and cardiac events, Obstetric calls and an increase in breathing problems, falls, and lacerations during the days following Hurricane Ike. There was also a statistically significant increase in auto med alerts and check patients surrounding Hurricane Ike's landfall. The third section analyzed the change in call volume sent to HFD's Telephone Nurse Line during Hurricane Ike and compares this to earlier time periods while the fourth and final section looks at the types of calls sent to the nurse line during Hurricane Ike. The data showed limited use of the TeleHealth Nurse line before Hurricane Ike, but when the winds were at their strongest and ambulances were unable to leave the station, the nurse line was the only functioning medical help some people were able to receive. These studies bring a better understanding to the number and types of calls that a city might experience during a natural disaster, such as a hurricane. This study also shows the usefulness of an EMS Telephone Nurse Line during a natural disaster.^

Teaching safety at a summer camp: Evaluation of a children's fire safety curriculum in an urban community setting

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Danger Rangers Fire Safety Curriculum in increasing the fire safety knowledge of low-income, minority children in pre-kindergarten to third grade in Austin, TX during a summer day camp in 2007.^ Methods: Data was collected from child participants via teacher and researcher administered tests at pretest, posttest (immediately after the completion of the fire safety module), and at a 3 week follow-up to asses retention. In addition, a self-administered questionnaire was collected from parents pre- and post-intervention to assess home-related fire/burn risk factors. Paired t-tests were conducted using STATA 12.0 to evaluate pretest, posttest, and retention test mean scores as well as mean fire safety rules listed by grade group. McNemar's test was used to determine if there was a difference in fire-related risk factors as reported by the parents of the participants before and after the intervention. Only those who had paired data for the tests/surveys being compared were included in the analysis.^ Results: The first/second grade group and the third grade group scored significantly higher on fire safety knowledge on the posttest compared to the pretest (p<0.0001 for both groups). However, there was no significant change in knowledge scores for the pre-kindergarten to kindergarten group (p=0.14). Among the first/second grade group, knowledge levels did not significantly decline between the posttest and retention test (p=0.25). However, the third grade group had significantly lower fire safety knowledge scores on the retention test compared to the posttest (p<0.001). A similar increase was seen in the amount of fire safety rules listed after the intervention (p<0.0001 between pre and posttest for both the first/second grade and third grade groups), with no decline from the posttest to the retention test (p=0.50) for the first/second grade group, but a significant decline in the third grade group (p=0.001). McNemar's chi-square test showed a significant increase in the percentage of participants' parents reporting smoke detector testing on a regular basis and having a fire escape plan for their family after the intervention (p=0.01 and p<0.0001, respectively). However, there was no significant change in the frequency of reports of the child playing in the kitchen while the parent cooks or the house/apartment having a working smoke detector.^ Conclusion: We found that general fire safety knowledge improved and the number of specific fire safety rules increased among the first to third grade children who participated in the Danger Rangers fire safety program. However, it did not significantly increase general fire safety knowledge among the pre-k/k group. This study also showed that a program targeted towards children has the potential to influence familial risk factors by proxy. The Danger Rangers Fire Safety Curriculum should be further evaluated by conducting a randomized controlled trial, using valid measures that assess fire safety attitudes, beliefs, behaviors, as well as fire/burn related outcomes.^

Age -period -cohort analysis: An extension of Cox's lifetable regression with time -dependent covariates

It is well known that an identification problem exists in the analysis of age-period-cohort data because of the relationship among the three factors (date of birth + age at death = date of death). There are numerous suggestions about how to analyze the data. No one solution has been satisfactory. The purpose of this study is to provide another analytic method by extending the Cox's lifetable regression model with time-dependent covariates. The new approach contains the following features: (1) It is based on the conditional maximum likelihood procedure using a proportional hazard function described by Cox (1972), treating the age factor as the underlying hazard to estimate the parameters for the cohort and period factors. (2) The model is flexible so that both the cohort and period factors can be treated as dummy or continuous variables, and the parameter estimations can be obtained for numerous combinations of variables as in a regression analysis. (3) The model is applicable even when the time period is unequally spaced.^ Two specific models are considered to illustrate the new approach and applied to the U.S. prostate cancer data. We find that there are significant differences between all cohorts and there is a significant period effect for both whites and nonwhites. The underlying hazard increases exponentially with age indicating that old people have much higher risk than young people. A log transformation of relative risk shows that the prostate cancer risk declined in recent cohorts for both models. However, prostate cancer risk declined 5 cohorts (25 years) earlier for whites than for nonwhites under the period factor model (0 0 0 1 1 1 1). These latter results are similar to the previous study by Holford (1983).^ The new approach offers a general method to analyze the age-period-cohort data without using any arbitrary constraint in the model. ^

Use of universal precautions in the workplace: A comparison of two fire /EMS services

The Health Belief Model (HBM) provided the theoretical framework for examining Universal Precautions (UP) compliance factors by Firefighter, EMTs and Paramedics (prehospital care providers). A convenient sample of prehospital care providers (n = 4000) from two cities (Houston and Washington DC), were surveyed to explore the factors related to their decision to comply with Universal Precautions. Eight hundred and sixty-five useable questionnaires were analyzed. The responders were primarily male (95.7%) eight hundred and twenty-eight and thirty-seven were female, prehospital based (100%), EMTs (60.0%) and paramedics (12.8%) who had a mean 13 years of prehospital care experience. ^ Linear regression was used to evaluate the four hypotheses. The first hypothesis evaluating perceived susceptibility and seriousness with reported UP use was statistically significant (p = < .05). Perceived susceptibility, when considered independently, did not make a significant contribution (t = −4.2852; p = 0.0000) to the stated use of Universal precautions. The hypothesis is not supported as stated. The data indicates the opposite effect. Supported is the premise that as perceived susceptibility and perceived seriousness increase the use of Universal Precautions decreases. Hypothesis two tested perceived benefits with internal and external barriers. Both perceived benefits and internal and external barriers as well as the overall regression were significant (F = 112.6, p = 0.0000). The contribution of internal and external barriers was statistically significant (t = 0.0175; p = 0.0000) and (t = 0.0128; p = 0.0000). Hypothesis three which tested modifying factors, cues to action, select demographic variables, and the main effects of the HBM with self reported UP compliance overall was significant. The variables gender, birth, education, job type, EMS certification, years of service, years of experience providing patient care, Universal Precautions training hours, type of apparatus assigned to and the number of EMS related incidents responded to in a month were found to have a significant contribution to the stated use of Universal Precautions. ^ The additive effects were tested by use of a stepwise regression that assessed the contribution of each of the significant variables. Three variables in the equation were statistically significant. Internal barriers (t = −8.5507; p = 0.0000), external barriers (t = −6.2862; p = 0.000) and job type 2 & 3. Job type two (t = −2.8464; p = 0.0045 is titled Engineer/Operator. Job type three (t = −2.5730; p = 0.0103) is titled captain. The overall regression was significant (F = 24.06; p = 0.000). The Hypothesis is supported in the certain demographic variables do influence the stated use of Universal precautions and that as internal and external barriers are decreased, there is an increase in the stated use of Universal Precautions. ^ In summary, this study demonstrated that internal and external barriers have a significant impact on the stated use of Universal Precautions. Internal barriers are those factors within the individual that require an internal change (i.e., forgetfulness, freedom, perception of the urgency of the patient's needs etc.) and external barriers are things in the environment that can be altered (i.e., equipment design, availability of equipment, ease of use). These two model variables explained 23%–30% of the variance. ^

Elevation lines of modelled ice sheet extension during last glacial maximum

A numerical ice-sheet model was used to reconstruct the Late Weichselian glaciation of the Eurasian High Arctic, between Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya. An ice sheet was developed over the entire Eurasian High Arctic so that ice flow from the central Barents and Kara seas toward the northern Russian Arctic could be accounted for. An inverse approach to modeling was utilized, where ice-sheet results were forced to be compatible with geological information indicating ice-free conditions over the Taymyr Peninsula during the Late Weichselian. The model indicates complete glaciation of the Barents and Kara seas and predicts a "maximum-sized" ice sheet for the Late Weichselian Russian High Arctic. In this scenario, full-glacial conditions are characterized by a 1500-m-thick ice mass over the Barents Sea, from which ice flowed to the north and west within several bathymetric troughs as large ice streams. In contrast to this reconstruction, a "minimum" model of glaciation involves restricted glaciation in the Kara Sea, where the ice thickness is only 300 m in the south and which is free of ice in the north across Severnaya Zemlya. Our maximum reconstruction is compatible with geological information that indicates complete glaciation of the Barents Sea. However, geological data from Severnaya Zemlya suggest our minimum model is more relevant further east. This, in turn, implies a strong paleoclimatic gradient to colder and drier conditions eastward across the Eurasian Arctic during the Late Weichselian.

(Table 1) Tree age, post fire stand age, and soil organic matter thickness in the western Quebec black spruce boreal ecosystem

The observed long-term decrease in the regional fire activity of Eastern Canada results in excessive accumulation of organic layer on the forest floor of coniferous forests, which may affect climate-growth relationships in canopy trees. To test this hypothesis, we related tree-ring chronologies of black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) to soil organic layer (SOL) depth at the stand scale in the lowland forests of Quebec's Clay Belt. Late-winter and early-spring temperatures and temperature at the end of the previous year's growing season were the major monthly level environmental controls of spruce growth. The effect of SOL on climate-growth relationships was moderate and reversed the association between tree growth and summer aridity from a negative to a positive relationship: trees growing on thin organic layers were thus negatively affected by drought, whereas it was the opposite for sites with deep (>20-30 cm) organic layers. This indicates the development of wetter conditions on sites with thicker SOL. Deep SOL were also associated with an increased frequency of negative growth anomalies (pointer years) in tree-ring chronologies. Our results emphasize the presence of nonlinear growth responses to SOL accumulation, suggesting 20-30 cm as a provisional threshold with respect to the effects of SOL on the climate-growth relationship. Given the current climatic conditions characterized by generally low-fire activity and a trend toward accumulation of SOL, the importance of SOL effects in the black spruce ecosystem is expected to increase in the future.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, shell linear extension and calcification during calcein staining and 45Ca experiments with pteropod Limacina helicina, 2009

Thecosome pteropods (shelled pelagic molluscs) can play an important role in the food web of various ecosystems and play a key role in the cycling of carbon and carbonate. Since they harbor an aragonitic shell, they could be very sensitive to ocean acidification driven by the increase of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The impact of changes in the carbonate chemistry was investigated on Limacina helicina, a key species of Arctic ecosystems. Pteropods were kept in culture under controlled pH conditions corresponding to pCO2 levels of 350 and 760 µatm. Calcification was estimated using a fluorochrome and the radioisotope 45Ca. It exhibits a 28 % decrease at the pH value expected for 2100 compared to the present pH value. This result supports the concern for the future of pteropods in a high-CO2 world, as well as of those species dependent upon them as a food resource. A decline of their populations would likely cause dramatic changes to the structure, function and services of polar ecosystems.