Leader's reflections on knowledge, knowing and not knowing: an analysis of change over time

One commonality across the leadership and knowledge related literature is the apparent neglect of the leaders own knowledge. This thesis sought to address this issue through conducting exploratory research into the content of leader’s personal knowledge and the process of knowing it. The empirical inquiry adopted a longitudinal approach, with interviews conducted at two separate time periods with an extended time-interval between each. The findings from this research contrast with images of leadership which suggest leaders are in control of what they know, that they own their own knowledge. The picture that emerges is one of individuals struggling to keep abreast of the knowledge required to deal with the dynamics and uncertainties of organisational life. Much knowledge is tacit, provisional and perishable and the related process of knowing more organic, evolutionary and informal than any structured or orchestrated approach. The collective nature of knowing is a central feature, with these leaders embedded in networks of uncontrollable relationships. In view of the indeterminate nature of knowing, the boundary between what is known and what one needs to know is both amorphous and ephemeral, and the likelihood of knowledge-absences is escalated. A significant finding in this regard is the identification of two critical points where not-knowing is most likely (entry and exit from role) and the differing implications of each. Overtime the knowledge that is legitimised or prioritised is significantly altered as these leaders replace the dogmas that were previously held in high esteem with the lessons from their own experience. This experience brings increased self-knowledge and a deeper appreciation of the values and morals instilled in their early lives. In view of the above findings, this study makes theoretical contribution to a number of core literatures: authentic leadership, role transition and knowledge-absences. In terms of leadership development, the findings point to the necessity to prepare leaders for the challenges they will encounter at the pivotal stages of the leadership role.

Gaussian Process Kernels for Cross-Spectrum Analysis in Electrophysiological Time Series

Multi-output Gaussian processes provide a convenient framework for multi-task problems. An illustrative and motivating example of a multi-task problem is multi-region electrophysiological time-series data, where experimentalists are interested in both power and phase coherence between channels. Recently, the spectral mixture (SM) kernel was proposed to model the spectral density of a single task in a Gaussian process framework. This work develops a novel covariance kernel for multiple outputs, called the cross-spectral mixture (CSM) kernel. This new, flexible kernel represents both the power and phase relationship between multiple observation channels. The expressive capabilities of the CSM kernel are demonstrated through implementation of 1) a Bayesian hidden Markov model, where the emission distribution is a multi-output Gaussian process with a CSM covariance kernel, and 2) a Gaussian process factor analysis model, where factor scores represent the utilization of cross-spectral neural circuits. Results are presented for measured multi-region electrophysiological data.

An Investigation into the Failure to Implement a Universal School Lunch Program during WWII and Postwar Reconstruction in Canada: The Case of Ontario

The purpose of this research is to investigate the various social, political and economic factors that contributed to Canada’s failure to implement a universal school lunch program during the 1940s. Although Canada developed several other social welfare programs in the post-war period, it remains one of the only industrialized nations that does not provide hot meals to children in elementary or secondary schools. Data from the province of Ontario, a major site of postwar reconstruction and policy-making, has been taken up to inform the broader national discourse on school lunches from the 1940s. National, Ontario provincial and City of Toronto archival records were collected and analyzed according to common themes, in order to identify key barriers that constrained government support of a hot meal program. Archival records were identified using key words, and were limited to materials created between 1930-1952. Analysis suggests that sufficient need for a hot meal program had not been established during the 1940s. Despite misleading nutrition messages, rates of malnutrition and nutrient-related disease were at an all-time low, and many Ontario school boards did not appear to have the necessary infrastructure required to supply all pupils with hot meals. The Canadian government had already employed significant resources to improve existing social security programs by coupling them with health education. This strategy reflected a shift in understanding malnutrition as a knowledge-based problem, as opposed to income-based. This understanding was further reinforced through the moralized dissemination of nutrition information, which placed blame on women for improperly raising their children. Ultimately, the strong uptake of nutrition as a public health issue in Ontario may have limited prospective responses to solutions already utilized in the public health domain, and directed favour away from a universal school lunch program for Canada.

RELIBILITY ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE SLOPES AND SOIL-STRUCTURES WITH LINEAR LIMIT STATES

The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.

Controller Time and Delay Costs - a Trade-off Analysis

Air traffic controller shortages remain a significant challenge in European ATM. Comparing different rules, we quantify the cost effectiveness of adding controller hours to Area Control Centre regulations to avert the delay cost impact on airlines. Typically, adding controller hours results in a net benefit. Distributions of delay duration and aircraft weight play an important role in determining the total cost of a regulation. Errors are likely to be incurred when analysing performance based on average delay values, particularly at the disaggregate level.

Life expectancy for community-based patients with heart failure from time of diagnosis

AIMS: Heart failure has been demonstrated in previous studies to have a dismal prognosis. However, the modern-day prognosis of patients with new onset heart failure diagnosed in the community managed within a disease management programme is not known. The purpose of this study is to report on prognosis of patients presenting with new onset heart failure in the community who are subsequently followed in a disease management program.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A review of patients referred to a rapid access heart failure diagnostic clinic between 2002 and 2012 was undertaken. Details of diagnosis, demographics, medical history, medications, investigations and mortality data were analysed. A total of 733 patients were seen in Rapid Access Clinic for potential new diagnosis of incident of heart failure. 38.9% (n=285) were diagnosed with heart failure, 40.7% (n=116) with HF-REF and 59.3% (n=169) with HF-PEF. There were 84 (29.5%) deaths in the group of patients diagnosed with heart failure; 41 deaths (35.3%) occurred in patients with HF-REF and 43 deaths (25.4%) occurred in patients with HF-PEF. In patients with heart failure, 52.4% (n=44) died from cardiovascular causes. 63.8% of HF patients were alive after 5 years resulting on average in a month per year loss of life expectancy over that period compared with aged matched simulated population.

CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based cohort, the prognosis of heart failure was better than reported in previous studies. This is likely due to the impact of prompt diagnosis, the improvement in therapies and care within a disease management structure.

Progression of left atrial volume index in a population at risk for heart failure:a substudy of the STOP-HF (St Vincent's Screening TO Prevent Heart Failure) trial

AIMS: Limited data are available concerning the evolution of the left atrial volume index (LAVI) in pre-heart failure (HF) patients. The aim of this study was to investigate clinical characteristics and serological biomarkers in a cohort with risk factors for HF and evidence of serial atrial dilatation.

METHODS AND RESULTS: This was a prospective substudy within the framework of the STOP-HF cohort (NCT00921960) involving 518 patients with risk factors for HF electively undergoing serial clinical, echocardiographic, and natriuretic peptide assessment. Mean follow-up time between assessments was 15 ± 6 months. 'Progressors' (n = 39) were defined as those with serial LAVI change ≥3.5 mL/m(2) (and baseline LAVI between 20 and 34 mL/m(2)). This cut-off was derived from a calculated reference change value above the biological, analytical, and observer variability of serial LAVI measurement. Multivariate analysis identified significant baseline clinical associates of LAVI progression as increased age, beta-blocker usage, and left ventricular mass index (all P < 0.05). Serological biomarkers were measured in a randomly selected subcohort of 30 'Progressors' matched to 30 'Non-progressors'. For 'Progressors', relative changes in matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), and the TIMP1/MMP9 ratio, markers of interstitial remodelling, tracked with changes in LAVI over time (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION: Accelerated LAVI increase was found to occur in up to 14% of all pre-HF patients undergoing serial echocardiograms over a relatively short follow-up period. In a randomly selected subcohort of 'Progressors', changes in LAVI were closely linked with alterations in MMP9, TIMP1, and the ratio of these enzymes, a potential aid in highlighting this at-risk group.

Long-term statin therapy in patients with systolic heart failure and normal cholesterol:effects on elevated serum markers of collagen turnover, inflammation, and B-type natriuretic peptide

BACKGROUND: The role of statin therapy in heart failure (HF) is unclear. The amino-terminal propeptide of procollagen type III (PIIINP) predicts outcome in HF, and yet there are conflicting reports of statin therapy effects on PIIINP.

OBJECTIVES: This study determined whether there was an increase in serum markers of inflammation, fibrosis (including PIIINP), and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in patients with systolic HF and normal total cholesterol and determined the effects of long-term treatment with atorvastatin on these markers.

METHODS: Fifty-six white patients with systolic HF and normal cholesterol levels (age 72 [13] years; 68% male; body mass index 27.0 [7.3] kg/m(2); ejection fraction 35 [13]%; 46% with history of smoking) were randomly allocated to atorvastatin treatment for 6 months, titrated to 40 mg/d (A group) or not (C group). Age- and/or sex-matched subjects without HF (N group) were also recruited. Biomarkers were measured at baseline (all groups) and 6 months (A and C groups).

RESULTS: Serum markers of collagen turnover, inflammation, and BNP were significantly elevated in HF patients compared with normal participants (all P < 0.05). There were correlations between these markers in HF patients but not in normal subjects. Atorvastatin treatment for 6 months caused a significant reduction in the following biomarkers compared with baseline: BNP, from median (interquartile range) 268 (190-441) pg/mL to 185 (144-344) pg/mL; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), from 5.26 (1.95 -9.29) mg/L to 3.70 (2.34-6.81) mg/L; and PIIINP, from 4.65 (1.86) to 4.09 (1.25) pg/mL (all P < 0.05 baseline vs 6 months). Between-group differences were significant for PIIINP only (P = 0.027). There was a positive interaction between atorvastatin effects and baseline hs-CRP and PIIINP (P < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS: Long-term statin therapy reduced PIIINP in this small, selected HF population with elevated baseline levels. Further evaluation of statin therapy in the management of HF patients with elevated PIIINP is warranted.

Proteomic analysis of coronary sinus serum reveals leucine-rich α2-glycoprotein as a novel biomarker of ventricular dysfunction and heart failure

BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) prevention strategies require biomarkers that identify disease manifestation. Increases in B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) correlate with increased risk of cardiovascular events and HF development. We hypothesize that coronary sinus serum from a high BNP hypertensive population reflects an active pathological process and can be used for biomarker exploration. Our aim was to discover differentially expressed disease-associated proteins that identify patients with ventricular dysfunction and HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Coronary sinus serum from 11 asymptomatic, hypertensive patients underwent quantitative differential protein expression analysis by 2-dimensional difference gel electrophoresis. Proteins were identified using mass spectrometry and then studied by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in sera from 40 asymptomatic, hypertensive patients and 105 patients across the spectrum of ventricular dysfunction (32 asymptomatic left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, 26 diastolic HF, and 47 systolic HF patients). Leucine-rich α2-glycoprotein (LRG) was consistently overexpressed in high BNP serum. LRG levels correlate significantly with BNP in hypertensive, asymptomatic left ventricular diastolic dysfunction, diastolic HF, and systolic HF patient groups (P≤0.05). LRG levels were able to identify HF independent of BNP. LRG correlates with coronary sinus serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-α (P=0.009) and interleukin-6 (P=0.021). LRG is expressed in myocardial tissue and correlates with transforming growth factor-βR1 (P<0.001) and α-smooth muscle actin (P=0.025) expression.

CONCLUSIONS: LRG was identified as a serum biomarker that accurately identifies patients with HF. Multivariable modeling confirmed that LRG is a stronger identifier of HF than BNP and this is independent of age, sex, creatinine, ischemia, β-blocker therapy, and BNP.

Dynamically mechanical and nano-impact (fatigue) analysis of touch screen thin films deposited on polyethylene terephthalate substrate

Nano-scale touch screen thin film have not been thoroughly investigated in terms of dynamic impact analysis under various strain rates. This research is focused on two different thin films, Zinc Oxide (ZnO) film and Indium Tin Oxide (ITO) film, deposited on Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) substrate for the standard touch screen panels. Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA) was performed on the ZnO film coated PET substrates. Nano-impact (fatigue) testing was performed on ITO film coated PET substrates. Other analysis includes hardness and the elastic modulus measurements, atomic force microscopy (AFM), Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) and the Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) of the film surface.
Ten delta of DMA is described as the ratio of loss modulus (viscous properties) and storage modulus (elastic properties) of the material and its peak against time identifies the glass transition temperature (Tg). Thus, in essence the Tg recognizes changes from glassy to rubber state of the material and for our sample ZnO film, Tg was found as 388.3 K. The DMA results also showed that the Ten delta curve for Tg increases monotonically in the viscoelastic state (before Tg) and decreases sharply in the rubber state (after Tg) until recrystallization of ZnO takes place. This led to an interpretation that enhanced ductility can be achieved by negating the strength of the material.
For the nano-impact testing using the ITO coated PET, the damage started with the crack initiation and propagation. The interpretation of the nano-impact results depended on the characteristics of the loading history. Under the nano-impact loading, the surface structure of ITO film suffered from several forms of failure damages that range from deformation to catastrophic failures. It is concluded that in such type of application, the films should have low residual stress to prevent deformation, good adhesive strength, durable and good resistance to wear.

Threat Analysis of BlackEnergy Malware for Synchrophasor based Real-time Control and Monitoring in Smart Grid

The BlackEnergy malware targeting critical infrastructures has a long history. It evolved over time from a simple DDoS platform to a quite sophisticated plug-in based malware. The plug-in architecture has a persistent malware core with easily installable attack specific modules for DDoS, spamming, info-stealing, remote access, boot-sector formatting etc. BlackEnergy has been involved in several high profile cyber physical attacks including the recent Ukraine power grid attack in December 2015. This paper investigates the evolution of BlackEnergy and its cyber attack capabilities. It presents a basic cyber attack model used by BlackEnergy for targeting industrial control systems. In particular, the paper analyzes cyber threats of BlackEnergy for synchrophasor based systems which are used for real-time control and monitoring functionalities in smart grid. Several BlackEnergy based attack scenarios have been investigated by exploiting the vulnerabilities in two widely used synchrophasor communication standards: (i) IEEE C37.118 and (ii) IEC 61850-90-5. Specifically, the paper addresses reconnaissance, DDoS, man-in-the-middle and replay/reflection attacks on IEEE C37.118 and IEC 61850-90-5. Further, the paper also investigates protection strategies for detection and prevention of BlackEnergy based cyber physical attacks.

Surgical Options After Fontan Failure

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this European multicenter study was to report surgical outcomes of Fontan takedown, Fontan conversion and heart transplantation (HTX) for failing Fontan patients in terms of all-cause mortality and (re-)HTX. METHODS: A retrospective international study was conducted by the European Congenital Heart Surgeons Association among 22 member centres. Outcome of surgery to address failing Fontan was collected in 225 patients among which were patients with Fontan takedown (n=38; 17%), Fontan conversion (n=137; 61%) or HTX (n=50; 22%). RESULTS: The most prevalent indication for failing Fontan surgery was arrhythmia (43.6%), but indications differed across the surgical groups (p<0.001). Fontan takedown was mostly performed in the early postoperative phase after Fontan completion, while Fontan conversion and HTX were mainly treatment options for late failure. Early (30 days) mortality was high for Fontan takedown (ie, 26%). Median follow-up was 5.9 years (range 0-23.7 years). The combined end point mortality/HTX was reached in 44.7% of the Fontan takedown patients, in 26.3% of the Fontan conversion patients and in 34.0% of the HTX patients, respectively (log rank p=0.08). Survival analysis showed no difference between Fontan conversion and HTX (p=0.13), but their ventricular function differed significantly. In patients who underwent Fontan conversion or HTX ventricular systolic dysfunction appeared to be the strongest predictor of mortality or (re-)HTX. Patients with valveless atriopulmonary connection (APC) take more advantage of Fontan conversion than patients with a valve-containing APC (p=0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Takedown surgery for failing Fontan is mostly performed in the early postoperative phase, with a high risk of mortality. There is no difference in survival after Fontan conversion or HTX.