Estimation of infection rate in epidemic models with multiple populations

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Matemática e Aplicações Especialização em Actuariado, Estatística e Investigação Operacional

Heart rate responses to a muscarinic agonist in rats with experimentally induced acute and subacute chagasic myocarditis

We administered arecoline to rats, with experimentally induced chagasic myocarditis, in order to study the sinus node sensitivity to a muscarinic agonist. Sixteen month old rats were inoculated with 200,000 T. cruzi parasites ("Y" strain). Between days 18 and 21 (acute stage), 8 infected rats and 8 age-matched controls received intravenous arecoline as a bolus injection at the following doses: 5.0, 10.0, 20.0, 40.0, and 80.0 mug/kg. Heart rate was recorded before, during and after each dose of arecoline. The remaining 8 infected animals and 8 controls were subjected to the same experimental procedure during the subacute stage, i.e., days 60 to 70 after inoculation. The baseline heart rate, of the animals studied during the acute stage (349 ± 68 bpm, mean ± SD), was higher than that of the controls (250 ± 50 bpm, p < 0.005). The heart rate changes were expressed as percentage changes over baseline values. A dose-response curve was constructed for each group of animals. Log scales were used to plot the systematically doubled doses of arecoline and the induced-heart rate changes. The slope of the regression line for the acutely infected animals (r = - 0.99, b =1.78) was not different from that for the control animals (r = - 0.97, b = 1.61). The infected animals studied during the subacute stage (r = - 0.99, b = 1.81) were also not different from the age-matched controls (r = - 0.99, b = 1.26, NS). Consequently, our results show no pharmacological evidence of postjunctional hypersensitivity to the muscarinic agonist arecoline. Therefore, these results indirectly suggest that the postganglionic parasympathetic innervation, of the sinus node of rats with autopsy proved chagasic myocarditis, is not irreversibly damaged by Trypanosoma cruzi.

Evaluation of penicillin therapy in patients with leptospirosis and acute renal failure

The effectiveness of specific antibiotic treatment in severe leptospirosis is still under debate. As part of a prospective study designed to evaluate renal function recovery after leptospirosis acute renal failure (ARF) (ARF was defined as Pcr > or = 1.5 mg/dL), the clinical evolutions of 16 treated patients (T) were compared to those of 18 untreated patients (nT). Treatment or non-treatment was the option of each patient's attending infectologist. The penicillin treatment was always with 6 million IU/day for 8 days. No difference was found between the two groups in terms of age, gender, number of days from onset of symptoms to hospital admission, or results of laboratory tests performed upon admission and during hospitalization, but proteinuria was higher in the treated group. There were no significant difference in the other parameters employed to evaluate patients' clinical evolution as: length of hospital stay, days of fever, days to normalization of renal function, days to total bilirubins normalized or reached 1/3 of maximum value and days to normalization of platelet counts. Dialytic treatment indication and mortality were similar between group T and nT. In conclusion, penicillin therapy did not provide better clinical outcome in patients with leptospirosis and ARF.

Acute renal failure after massive honeybee stings

Two clinical cases of patients who survived after numerous attacks of Africanized bees (600 and 1500 bee stings, respectively) are reported. Clinical manifestation was characterized by diffuse and widespread edema, a burning sensation in the skin, headache, weakness, dizziness, generalized paresthesia, somnolence and hypotension. Acute renal failure developed and was attributed to hypotension, intravascular hemolysis, myoglobinuria due to rhabdomyolysis and probably to direct toxic effect of the massive quantity of injected venom. They were treated with antihistaminic, corticosteroids and fluid infusion. One of them had severe acute renal failure and dialysis was required. No clinical complication was observed during hospital stay and complete renal function recovery was observed in both patients. In conclusion, acute renal failure after bee stings is probably due to pigment nephropathy associated with hypovolemia. Early recognition of this syndrome is crucial to the successful management of these patients.

Comparative study of the in-hospital case-fatality rate of leptospirosis between pediatric and adult patients of different age groups

The main objective was to compare the in-hospital case-fatality rate of leptospirosis between pediatric (< 19 years) and adult (>19 years) patients, taking into account gender, renal function, duration of symptoms and jaundice. Medical records of 1016 patients were reviewed. Comparative analysis was restricted to 840 patients (100 pediatric, 740 adults) with recorded information on the variables included in the analysis. Among these patients 81.7% were male and 91.5% were icteric. The case-fatality rate of leptospirosis was 14.4%. The odds of death adjusted for gender, jaundice, duration of symptoms, serum urea and serum creatinine were almost four times higher for the adult than for the pediatric group (odds ratio (OR) = 3.94; 95% confidence interval = 1.19-13.03, p = 0.029). Among adults, increased age was also significantly and independently associated with increased risk of death (p < 0.01). Older patients were also more often treated by dialysis. In conclusion, the data suggest that the in-hospital case fatality rate of leptospirosis is higher for adults than for children and adolescents, even after taking into account the effects of several potential risk factors of death. Among adults, older age was also strongly and independently associated with higher risk of death.

The Prognostic Impact of Renal Failure in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Acute Myocardial Infarction

INTRODUCTION: Renal insufficiency (RI) is associated with higher morbidity and mortality in patients (P) with coronary artery disease and in P submitted to angioplasty. In ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEAMI), this impact has not been well demonstrated. AIM: To evaluate the impact of RI in P with STEAMI. METHODS: We evaluated 160 P admitted with STEAMI, mean age of 62+/-14 years, 76% male. We determined creatinine levels on admission. RI was defined as a level >1.5 mg/dl. Analysis of clinical, electrocardiographic and laboratory variables was performed, in relation to the endpoint defined as the occurrence of death at 30-day follow-up. RESULTS: There were 16 deaths (10%) at 30-day follow-up. P with RI (n=21) were older (68+/-11 vs 61+/-14 years, p<0.001), more often had diabetes (57 vs 24 %, p=0.004) and presented more often with Killip class > or =2 (57 vs 12%, p<0.001). The use of statins (62 vs 83%, p=0.05) and beta-blockers (24 vs 65%, p<0.001) was lower in P with RI. Mortality was higher in RI P (62 vs 2%, p<0.001). The univariate predictors of death were age > or =75 years, diabetes, Killip class > or =2 on admission, RI, non-use of statins and beta-blockers and use of diuretics. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of death at 30 days were RI (HR 29.6, 95% CI 6.3-139.9, p<0.001) and non-use of beta-blockers (HR 0.13, 95% CI 0.02-1.01, p=0.01). CONCLUSION: In P admitted for STEAMI, the presence of RI was an independent predictor of death at 30 days whereas the usage of beta-blockers was protective.

Cardiovascular profile after intravenous injection of Africanized bee venom in awake rats

The manifestations caused by Africanized bee stings depend on the sensitivity of the victim and the toxicity of the venom. Previous studies in our laboratory have demonstrated cardiac changes and acute tubular necrosis (ATN) in the kidney of rats inoculated with Africanized bee venom (ABV). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the changes in mean arterial pressure (MAP) and heart rate (HR) over a period of 24 h after intravenous injection of ABV in awake rats. A significant reduction in basal HR as well as in basal MAP occurred immediately after ABV injection in the experimental animals. HR was back to basal level 2 min after ABV injection and remained normal during the time course of the experiment, while MAP returned to basal level 10 min later and remained at this level for the next 5 h. However, MAP presented again a significant reduction by the 7th and 8th h and returned to the basal level by the 24th h. The fall in MAP may contribute to the pathogenesis of ATN observed. The fall in MAP probably is due to several factors, in addition to the cardiac changes already demonstrated, it is possible that the components of the venom themselves or even substances released in the organism play some role in vascular beds.

Reconstitution of the failure of the Fonte Santa mine tailings dam. Modelling of the dam breaching process

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Perfil de Estruturas e Geotecnia

The frequency rate of Toxocara species contamination in soil samples from public yards in a urban area "Payathai", Bangkok, Thailand

Toxocara species are most common roundworms of Canidae and Felidae. Human toxocariasis develops by ingesting of embryonated eggs in contaminated soil. There is no previous report of Toxocara contamination in the soil samples from the public areas in Bangkok. For this reason our study have been carried out to examine the frequency of Toxocara eggs in public yards in Bangkok, Thailand. A total of 175 sand and clay samples were collected and examined for parasite eggs. According to this study, Toxocara eggs were detected from 10 (5.71%) of 175 soil samples. The high rate of contamination in this study implies the importance of the control of this possible zoonotic disease: control of abandon of dogs and cats, is still necessary.

Variáveis Ecocardiográficas Predizentes de Terapêuticas Apropriadas de Taquidisritmias Ventriculares em Doentes Submetidos a Terapêutica de Ressincronização Cardíaca Combinada

INTRODUCTION: The significant risk of sudden arrhythmic death in patients with congestive heart failure and electromechanical ventricular dyssynchrony has led to increased use of combined cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator (CRT-D) devices. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the echocardiographic variables in patients undergoing CRT-D that predict the occurrence of appropriate therapies (AT) for ventricular tachyarrhythmia. METHODS: We analyzed 38 consecutive patients (mean age 60 +/- 12 years, 63% male) with echocardiographic evaluation before and 6 months after CRT-D implantation. Patients with AT were identified in a mean follow-up of 471 +/- 323 days. A standard echocardiographic study was performed including tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). Responders were defined as patients with improvement in NYHA class of < or = 1 in the first six months, and reverse remodeling as a decrease in left ventricular end-systolic volume of < or = 15% and/or an increase in left ventricular ejection fraction of > 25%. RESULTS: The responder rate was 74%, and the reverse remodeling rate was 55%. AT occurred in 21% of patients, who presented with greater left ventricular end-diastolic internal diameter (LVEDD) before implantation (86 +/- 8 vs. 76 +/- 11 mm, p = 0.03) and at 6 months (81 +/- 8 vs. 72 +/- 14 mm, p = 0.08), and increased left ventricular end-systolic internal diameter (66 +/- 14 vs. 56 +/- 14 mm, p = 0.03) and lower ejection fraction (24 +/- 6 vs. 34 +/- 14%, p = 0.08) at 6 months. In the group with AT, the responder rate was lower (38 vs. 83%, p = 0.03), without significant differences in reverse remodeling (38% for the AT group vs. 60%, p = 0.426) or in the other variables. By univariate analysis, predictors of AT were LVEDD before implantation and E' after implantation. Age, gender, ischemic etiology, use of antiarrhythmic drugs, reverse remodeling and the other echocardiographic parameters did not predict AT. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, both LVEDD before implantation (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.48, p = 0.019) and postimplantation E' (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.09-0.76, p = 0.014) remained as independent predictors of AT. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing CRT-D, episodes of ventricular tachyarrhythmia occur with high incidence, independently of echocardiographic response, with LVEDD before implantation and E' after implantation as the only independent predictors of AT in the medium-term. These results highlight the importance of combined devices with defibrillation capability.

Failure of nitric oxide production by macrophages and decrease in CD4+ T cells in oral paracoccidioidomycosis: possible mechanisms that permit local fungal multiplication

Paracoccidioidomycosis is a chronic granulomatous disease that induces a specific inflammatory and immune response. The participation of nitric oxide (NO), a product of the inducible nitric oxide synthase enzyme (iNOS), as an important fungicidal molecule against Paracoccidioides brasiliensis has been demonstrated. In order to further characterize the Oral Paracoccidioidomycosis (OP), we undertook an immunohistochemical study of iNOS+, CD45RO+, CD3+, CD8+, CD20+, CD68+ cells and mast cells. The samples were distributed in groups according to the number of viable fungi per mm². Our results showed weak immunolabeling for iNOS in the multinucleated giant cells (MNGC) and in most of the mononuclear (MN) cells, and the proportion of iNOS+ MN/MNGC cells in the OP were comparable to Control (clinically healthy oral tissues). Additionally, our analysis revealed a similarity in the number of CD4+ cells between the Control and the OP groups with higher numbers of fungi. These findings suggest that a low expression of iNOS and a decrease in the CD4+ T cells in OP may represent possible mechanisms that permit the local fungal multiplication and maintenance of active oral lesions.

Importância Prognóstica do Doppler Tecidular nos Doentes com Miocardiopatia Dilatada

Previous studies have shown that a ratio of early transmitral flow velocity to early diastolic velocity of the mitral annulus (E/E') of > 15, obtained by tissue Doppler imaging (TDI), correlates with left ventricular filling pressure. OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to assess whether E/E' provides prognostic information in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy. METHODS: We studied 33 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy and mean ejection fraction of 31%. All the patients underwent routine two-dimensional and Doppler echocardiographic examination and TDI to determine early peak velocity of the mitral annulus. Pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (pro-BNP) and peak oxygen consumption (VO2max) were also measured. Patients were divided into two groups according to the value of E/E': Group I (n = 15 patients) with E/E' > or = 15 and Group II (n = 18 patients) with E/E' < 15. Patients were followed for 12+/-4 months; new hospital admission due to heart failure, heart transplantation and death were considered as cardiac events. RESULTS: There were significant differences between the two groups in conventional two-dimensional echocardiographic measurements (dimensions and ejection fraction) and Doppler parameters (mitral inflow). With regard to mitral annular velocities obtained by TDI at two different points (septum and lateral wall), the E', A' and S' velocities differed significantly between the two groups, with lower velocities in Group I. Systolic velocity measured in the lateral portion of the mitral annulus showed the most significant difference: Group I - 4.46 cm/sec versus Group II - 7.19 cm/sec, p < 0.00001. Pro-BNP was 5622 pg/ml in Group I, and 1254 pg/ml in Group II, p = 0.004. VO2 max was significantly different between the two groups: Group I - 17.6 ml/kg/min versus Group II - 22.8 ml/kg/min, p = 0.004. During follow-up, events were more common in Group I, with 9 patients (60%) having events, while in Group II, the event rate was 11.1% (2 patients), p = 0.004. CONCLUSION: The ratio of early transmitral flow velocity to early diastolic velocity of the mitral annulus is a powerful predictor of clinical outcome. Lower velocities of mitral annulus on TDI are expected in patients with E/E' > or = 15. Systolic velocities of under 5 cm/sec measured in the lateral portion of the mitral annulus appeared to be strongly related to prognosis.