Prospective independent validation of APACHE III models in an Australian tertiary adult intensive care unit

Evaluation of the performance of the APACHE III (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) ICU (intensive care unit) and hospital mortality models at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane is reported. Prospective collection of demographic, diagnostic, physiological, laboratory, admission and discharge data of 5681 consecutive eligible admissions (1 January 1995 to 1 January 2000) was conducted at the Princess Alexandra Hospital, a metropolitan Australian tertiary referral medical/surgical adult ICU. ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve areas for the APACHE III ICU mortality and hospital mortality models demonstrated excellent discrimination. Observed ICU mortality (9.1%) was significantly overestimated by the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (10.1%), but did not significantly differ from the prediction of the generic APACHE III model (8.6%). In contrast, observed hospital mortality (14.8%) agreed well with the prediction of the APACHE III model adjusted for hospital characteristics (14.6%), but was significantly underestimated by the unadjusted APACHE III model (13.2%). Calibration curves and goodness-of-fit analysis using Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, demonstrated that calibration was good with the unadjusted APACHE III ICU mortality model, and the APACHE III hospital mortality model adjusted for hospital characteristics. Post hoc analysis revealed a declining annual SMR (standardized mortality rate) during the study period. This trend was present in each of the non-surgical, emergency and elective surgical diagnostic groups, and the change was temporally related to increased specialist staffing levels. This study demonstrates that the APACHE III model performs well on independent assessment in an Australian hospital. Changes observed in annual SMR using such a validated model support an hypothesis of improved survival outcomes 1995-1999.

Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: Power-law accelerations, correlation evolution, and mode-switching

We introduce a conceptual model for the in-plane physics of an earthquake fault. The model employs cellular automaton techniques to simulate tectonic loading, earthquake rupture, and strain redistribution. The impact of a hypothetical crustal elastodynamic Green's function is approximated by a long-range strain redistribution law with a r(-p) dependance. We investigate the influence of the effective elastodynamic interaction range upon the dynamical behaviour of the model by conducting experiments with different values of the exponent (p). The results indicate that this model has two distinct, stable modes of behaviour. The first mode produces a characteristic earthquake distribution with moderate to large events preceeded by an interval of time in which the rate of energy release accelerates. A correlation function analysis reveals that accelerating sequences are associated with a systematic, global evolution of strain energy correlations within the system. The second stable mode produces Gutenberg-Richter statistics, with near-linear energy release and no significant global correlation evolution. A model with effectively short-range interactions preferentially displays Gutenberg-Richter behaviour. However, models with long-range interactions appear to switch between the characteristic and GR modes. As the range of elastodynamic interactions is increased, characteristic behaviour begins to dominate GR behaviour. These models demonstrate that evolution of strain energy correlations may occur within systems with a fixed elastodynamic interaction range. Supposing that similar mode-switching dynamical behaviour occurs within earthquake faults then intermediate-term forecasting of large earthquakes may be feasible for some earthquakes but not for others, in alignment with certain empirical seismological observations. Further numerical investigation of dynamical models of this type may lead to advances in earthquake forecasting research and theoretical seismology.

The structural and functional diversity of naturally occurring antimicrobial peptides

Antimicrobial peptides occur in a diverse range of organisms from microorganisms to insects, plants and animals. Although they all have the common function of inhibiting or killing invading microorganisms they achieve this function using an extremely diverse range of structural motifs. Their sizes range from approximately 10-90 amino acids. Most carry an overall positive charge, reflecting a preferred mode of electrostatic interaction with negatively charged microbial membranes. This article describes the structural diversity of a representative set of antimicrobial peptides divided into five structural classes: those with agr-helical structure, those with bgr-sheet structure, those with mixed helical / bgr- sheet structure, those with irregular structure, and those incorporating a macrocyclic structure. There is a significant diversity in both the size and charge of molecules within each of these classes and between the classes. The common feature of their three-dimensional structures is, however, that they have a degree of amphipathic character in which there is separate localisation of hydrophobic regions and positively charged regions. An emerging trend amongst antimicrobial proteins is the discovery of more macrocyclic analogues. Cyclisation appears to impart an additional degree of stability on these molecules and minimizes proteolytic cleavage. In conclusion, there appear to be a number of promising opportunities for the development of novel clinically useful antimicrobial peptides based on knowledge of the structures of naturally occurring antimicrobial molecules.

Analysis of the mouse transcriptome based on functional annotation of 60,770 full-length cDNAs

Only a small proportion of the mouse genome is transcribed into mature messenger RNA transcripts. There is an international collaborative effort to identify all full-length mRNA transcripts from the mouse, and to ensure that each is represented in a physical collection of clones. Here we report the manual annotation of 60,770 full-length mouse complementary DNA sequences. These are clustered into 33,409 'transcriptional units', contributing 90.1% of a newly established mouse transcriptome database. Of these transcriptional units, 4,258 are new protein-coding and 11,665 are new non-coding messages, indicating that non-coding RNA is a major component of the transcriptome. 41% of all transcriptional units showed evidence of alternative splicing. In protein-coding transcripts, 79% of splice variations altered the protein product. Whole-transcriptome analyses resulted in the identification of 2,431 sense-antisense pairs. The present work, completely supported by physical clones, provides the most comprehensive survey of a mammalian transcriptome so far, and is a valuable resource for functional genomics.

Functional beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenoceptors in the left and right atrium of pre-hypertensive rats

There is a small increase in the functional beta(2)-adrenoceptor response on the spontaneously hypertensive rat (SHR) left atrium in the early stages of hypertension. In the present study, the functional beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenoceptors of the left and right atrium in SHR pre-hypertension and age-matched (5-week-old) Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats were characterized. Contractility methods with isoprenaline, T-0509 (a selective beta(1)-adrenoceptor agonist) and procaterol (a selective beta(2)-adrenoceptor agonist) were used. At 5 weeks, the SHRs were pre-hypertensive. Isoprenaline was more potent on the left atrium of 5-week-old SHRs than WKY rats. Bisoprolol, a selective beta(1)-adrenoceptor antagonist, was more potent against isoprenaline and T-0509 on the SHR than WKY rat left atrium. ICI 118,551, a selective beta(2)-adrenoceptor antagonist, was more potent against procaterol and T-0509 on the SHR than WKY rat left atrium. The results with bisoprolol and ICI 118,551 suggest that there are more functional beta(1)- and beta(2)-adrenoceptors on the left atrium of 5-week-old SHRs than WKY rats. Isoprenaline, T-0509 and procaterol were equipotent on the right atrium of 5-week-old WKY rats and SHRs. Bisoprolol was more potent against isoprenaline, T-0509 and procaterol on the SHR than WKY rat right atrium. ICI 118,551 was more potent against T-0509, but not isoprenaline and procaterol, on the SHR than WKY rat left atrium. This suggests there are more functional beta(1)-adrenoceptors, and probably more functional beta(2)-adrenoceptors, on the right atrium of 5-week-old SHRs than WKY rats. These functional differences in beta(1)-and beta(2)-adrenoceptor-mediated responses of the left and right atria of pre-hypertensive SHRs cannot be caused by hypertension, and may be associated with the onset of hypertension.

Functional significance of a highly conserved glutamate residue of the human noradrenaline transportere

The aim of the study was to investigate the role of glutamate residue 113 in transmembrane domain 2 of the human noradrenaline transporter in determining cell surface expression and functional activity. This residue is absolutely conserved in all members of the Na+- and Cl--dependent transporter family. Mutations to alanine (hE113A), aspartate (hE113D) and glutamine (hE113Q) were achieved by site-directed mutagenesis and the mutants were expressed in transfected COS-7 or HEK-293 cells. Cell surface expression of IIE113A and hE113D, but not hE113Q, was markedly reduced compared with wild type, and functional noradrenaline uptake was detected only for the hE113Q mutant. The pharmacological properties of the hE113Q mutant showed very little change compared with wild type, except for a decrease in V-max values for noradrenaline and dopamine uptake of 2-3-fold. However, the hE113D mutant showed very marked changes in its properties, compared with wild type, with 82-260-fold decreases in the affinities of the substrates, noradrenaline, dopamine and MPP+, and increased Na+ affinity for stimulation of nisoxetine binding. The results of the study show that the size and not the charge of the 113 glutamate residue of the noradrenaline transporter seems to be the most critical factor for maintenance of transporter function and surface expression.

Cost comparison of hospital- and home-based treatment models for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

This trial compared the cost of an integrated home-based care model with traditional inpatient care for acute chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). 25 patients with acute COPD were randomised to either home or hospital management following request for hospital admission. The acute care at home group costs per separation ($745, CI95% $595-$895, n = 13) were significantly lower (p < 0.01) than the hospital group ($2543, CI95% $1766-$3321, n = 12). There was an improvement in lung function in the hospital-managed group at the Outpatient Department review, decreased anxiety in the Emergency Department in the home-managed group and equal patient satisfaction with care delivery. Acute care at home schemes can substitute for usual hospital care for some patients without adverse effects, and potentially release resources. A funding model that allows adequate resource delivery to the community will be needed if there is a move to devolve acute care to community providers.

Fitting genetic models to twin data with binary and ordered categorical responses: A comparison of structural equation modelling and Bayesian hierarchical models

We compare Bayesian methodology utilizing free-ware BUGS (Bayesian Inference Using Gibbs Sampling) with the traditional structural equation modelling approach based on another free-ware package, Mx. Dichotomous and ordinal (three category) twin data were simulated according to different additive genetic and common environment models for phenotypic variation. Practical issues are discussed in using Gibbs sampling as implemented by BUGS to fit subject-specific Bayesian generalized linear models, where the components of variation may be estimated directly. The simulation study (based on 2000 twin pairs) indicated that there is a consistent advantage in using the Bayesian method to detect a correct model under certain specifications of additive genetics and common environmental effects. For binary data, both methods had difficulty in detecting the correct model when the additive genetic effect was low (between 10 and 20%) or of moderate range (between 20 and 40%). Furthermore, neither method could adequately detect a correct model that included a modest common environmental effect (20%) even when the additive genetic effect was large (50%). Power was significantly improved with ordinal data for most scenarios, except for the case of low heritability under a true ACE model. We illustrate and compare both methods using data from 1239 twin pairs over the age of 50 years, who were registered with the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Twin Registry (ATR) and presented symptoms associated with osteoarthritis occurring in joints of the hand.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Molecular and functional analyses of Kunjin virus infectious cDNA clones demonstrate the essential roles for NS2A in virus assembly and for a nonconservative residue in NS3 in RNA replication

A number of full-length cDNA clones of Kunjin virus (KUN) were previously prepared; it was shown that two of them, pAKUN and FLSDX, differed in specific infectivities of corresponding in vitro transcribed RNAs by similar to100,000-fold (A. A. Khromykh et al., J. Virol. 72:7270-7279, 1998). In this study, we analyzed a possible genetic determinant(s) of the observed differences in infectivity initially by sequencing the entire cDNAs of both clones and comparing them with the published sequence of the parental KUN strain MRM61C. We found six common amino acid residues in both cDNA clones that were different from those in the published MRM61C sequence but were similar to those in the published sequences of other flaviviruses from the same subgroup. pAKUN clone had four additional codon changes, i.e., Ile59 to Asn and Arg175 to Lys in NS2A and Tyr518 to His and Ser557 to Pro in NS3. Three of these substitutions except the previously shown marker mutation, Arg175 to Lys in NS2A, reverted to the wild-type sequence in the virus eventually recovered from pAKUN RNA-transfected BHK cells, demonstrating the functional importance of these residues in viral replication and/or viral assembly. Exchange of corresponding DNA fragments between pAKUN and FLSDX clones and site-directed mutagenesis revealed that the Tyr518-to-His mutation in NS3 was responsible for an similar to5-fold decrease in specific infectivity of transcribed RNA, while the Ile59-to-Asn mutation in NS2A completely blocked virus production. Correction of the Asn59 in pAKUN NS2A to the wild-type lie residue resulted in complete restoration of RNA infectivity. Replication of KUN replicon RNA with an Ile59-to-Asn substitution in NS2A and with a Ser557-to-Pro substitution in NS3 was not affected, while the Tyr518-to-His substitution in NS3 led to severe inhibition of RNA replication. The impaired function of the mutated NS2A in production of infectious virus was complemented in trans by the helper wild-type NS2A produced from the KUN replicon RNA. However, replicon RNA with mutated NS2A could not be packaged in trans by the KUN structural proteins. The data demonstrated essential roles for the KUN nonstructural protein NS2A in virus assembly and for NS3 in RNA replication and identified specific single-amino-acid residues involved in these functions.