867 resultados para Expert judgement


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This paper proposes a train movement model with fixed runtime that can be employed to find feasible control strategies for a single train along an inter-city railway line. The objective of the model is to minimize arrival delays at each station along railway lines. However, train movement is a typical nonlinear problem for complex running environments and different requirements. A heuristic algorithm is developed to solve the problem in this paper and the simulation results show that the train could overcome the disturbance from train delay and coordinates the operation strategies to sure punctual arrival of trains at the destination. The developed algorithm can also be used to evaluate the running reliability of trains in scheduled timetables.

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The problem of delays in the construction industry is a global phenomenon and the construction industry in Brunei Darussalam is no exception. The goal of all parties involved in construction projects – owners, contractors, engineers and consultants in either the public or private sector is to successfully complete the project on schedule, within planned budget, with the highest quality and in the safest manner. Construction projects are frequently influenced by either success factors that help project parties reach their goal as planned, or delay factors that stifle or postpone project completion. The purpose of this research is to identify success and delay factors which can help project parties reach their intended goals with greater efficiency. This research extracted seven of the most important success factors according to the literature and seven of the most important delay factors identified by project parties, and then examined correlations between them to determine which were the most influential in preventing project delays. This research uses a comprehensive literature review to design and conduct a survey to investigate success and delay factors and then obtain a consensus of expert opinion using the Delphi methodology to rank the most needed critical success factors for Brunei construction projects. A specific survey was distributed to owners, contractors and engineers to examine the most critical delay factors. A general survey was distributed to examine the correlation between the identified delay factors and the seven most important critical success factors selected. A consensus of expert opinion using the Delphi methodology was used to rank the most needed critical success factors for Brunei building construction. Data was collected and evaluated by statistical methods to identify the most significant causes of delay and to measure the strength and direction of the relationship between critical success factors and delay factors in order to examine project parties’ evaluation of projects’ critical success and delay factors, and to evaluate the influence of critical success factors on critical delay factors. A relative importance index has been used to determine the relative importance of the various causes of delays. A one and two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) has been used to examine how the group or groups evaluated the influence of the critical success factors in avoiding or preventing each of the delay factors, and which success factors were perceived as most influential in avoiding or preventing critical delay factors. Finally the Delphi method, using consensus from an expert panel, was employed to identify the seven most critical success factors used to avoid the delay factors, and thereby improve project performance.

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While externally moderated standards-based assessment has been practised in Queensland senior schooling for more than three decades, there has been no such practice in the middle years. With the introduction of standards at state and national levels in these years, teacher judgement as developed in moderation practices is now vital. This paper argues, that in this context of assessment reform, standards intended to inform teacher judgement and to build assessment capacity are necessary but not sufficient for maintaining teacher and public confidence in schooling. Teacher judgement is intrinsic to moderation, and to professional practice, and can no longer remain private. Moderation too is intrinsic to efforts by the profession to realise judgements that are defensible, dependable and open to scrutiny. Moderation can no longer be considered an optional extra and requires system-level support especially if, as intended, the standards are linked to system-wide efforts to improve student learning. In presenting this argument we draw on an Australian Research Council funded study with key industry partners (the Queensland Studies Authority and the National Council for Curriculum and Assessment of the Republic of Ireland). The data analysed included teacher interview data and additional teacher talk during moderation sessions. These were undertaken during the initial phase of policy development. The analysis identified those issues that emerge in moderation meetings that are designed to reach consistent, reliable judgements. Of interest are the different ways in which teachers talked through and interacted with one another to reach agreement about the quality of student work in the application of standards. There is evidence of differences in the way that teachers made compensations and trade-offs in their award of grades, dependent on the subject domain in which they teach. This article concludes with some empirically derived insights into moderation practices as policy and social events.

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The lives of gifted young adolescents are often subject to adult-generated and expert narratives that can impact a developing sense of self. However, opportunities for gifted young adolescents to represent themselves as informants can emerge through digital forms of qualitative research. This paper reports on the value of digital writing of journal entries, delivered by email to a researcher over several months, as an alternative to face-to-face interviews. Journaling methods combined with techniques of 'listening for voices' can support young adolescents in generating their own multi-vocal narratives of self. This method capturing self-narratives in email form has the potential to produce rich understandings of individual young adolescents' self-constructions.

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Mentors are significant in shaping a preservice teacher’s practices. Developing common understandings about effective mentoring practices can assist the mentoring process. What are mentor educators’ practical ideas towards implementing a mentoring program? This mixed-method study involves surveys, questionnaires, and audio-taped focus group meetings on 14 mentor educators’ views on mentoring preservice primary teachers. This research aims to understand mentor educators’ motivations for mentoring, their views about what makes a good mentor, benefits for mentors, and issues or concerns for mentors and the mentoring process. It also focuses on determining professional development for mentors and troubleshooting potential problems. Findings revealed that these mentor educators were motivated into developing mentoring programs as a way to: (1) influence the quality of preservice teacher education (2) provide personal and professional development in mentoring, and (3) support mentors and the mentoring process within school settings. Outlining what makes a good mentor and benefits for mentors were consistent with the literature. However, these expert mentors also provided potential solutions (e.g., university support and professional development ideas) on issues such as knowing the mentee’s level of development and expectations, building a professional relationship prior to placement and the mentor’s dual role as confidant and assessor.

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Business process models are becoming available in large numbers due to their popular use in many industrial applications such as enterprise and quality engineering projects. On the one hand, this raises a challenge as to their proper management: How can it be ensured that the proper process model is always available to the interested stakeholder? On the other hand, the richness of a large set of process models also offers opportunities, for example with respect to the re-use of existing model parts for new models. This paper describes the functionalities and architecture of an advanced process model repository, named APROMORE. This tool brings together a rich set of features for the analysis, management and usage of large sets of process models, drawing from state-of-the art research in the field of process modeling. A prototype of the platform is presented in this paper, demonstrating its feasibility, as well as an outlook on the further development of APROMORE.

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Aim Australian residential aged care does not have a system of quality assessment related to clinical outcomes, or comprehensive quality benchmarking. The Residential Care Quality Assessment was developed to fill this gap; and this paper discusses the process by which preliminary benchmarks representing high and low quality were developed for it. Methods Data were collected from all residents (n = 498) of nine facilities. Numerator–denominator analysis of clinical outcomes occurred at a facility-level, with rank-ordered results circulated to an expert panel. The panel identified threshold scores to indicate excellent and questionable care quality, and refined these through Delphi process. Results Clinical outcomes varied both within and between facilities; agreed thresholds for excellent and poor outcomes were finalised after three Delphi rounds. Conclusion Use of the Residential Care Quality Assessment provides a concrete means of monitoring care quality and allows benchmarking across facilities; its regular use could contribute to improved care outcomes within residential aged care in Australia.

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Recent developments in technology, globalization, and consumer activism have challenged the "broadcasting model" of natonally bounded, vertically integrated, monopolistic, expert-paradigm media industries, dedicated to supplying leisure entertainment to more or less passive consumers. Instead, attention has turned to globally traded formats, social network markets, consumer-created content, multiplatform "publication," and a semiotic long tail where niche representations can be as valuable as blockbusters. Such chenges are just as much a challenge to education as they are to business models. And education, both formal and informal, is a dynamic agent in these processes, participation, and creative content require a rethink of "studies" just as much as of "media."

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Driver aggression is an increasing concern for motorists, with some research suggesting that drivers who behave aggressively perceive their actions as justified by the poor driving of others. Thus attributions may play an important role in understanding driver aggression. A convenience sample of 193 drivers (aged 17-36) randomly assigned to two separate roles (‘perpetrators’ and ‘victims’) responded to eight scenarios of driver aggression. Drivers also completed the Aggression Questionnaire and Driving Anger Scale. Consistent with the actor-observer bias, ‘victims’ (or recipients) in this study were significantly more likely than ‘perpetrators’ (or instigators) to endorse inadequacies in the instigator’s driving skills as the cause of driver aggression. Instigators were significantly more likely attribute the depicted behaviours to external but temporary causes (lapses in judgement or errors) rather than stable causes. This suggests that instigators recognised drivers as responsible for driving aggressively but downplayed this somewhat in comparison to ‘victims’/recipients. Recipients and instigators agreed that the behaviours were examples of aggressive driving but instigators appeared to focus on the degree of intentionality of the driver in making their assessments while recipients appeared to focus on the safety implications. Contrary to expectations, instigators gave mean ratings of the emotional impact of driving aggression on recipients that were higher in all cases than the mean ratings given by the recipients. Drivers appear to perceive aggressive behaviours as modifiable, with the implication that interventions could appeal to drivers’ sense of self-efficacy to suggest strategies for overcoming plausible and modifiable attributions (e.g. lapses in judgement; errors) underpinning behaviours perceived as aggressive.

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After a brief personal orientation, this presentation offers an opening section on „clash, cluster, complexity, cities‟ – making the case that innovation (both creative and economic) proceeds not only from incremental improvements within an expert-pipeline process, but also from the clash of different systems, generations, and cultures. The argument is that cultural complexity arises from such clashes, and that clustering is the solution to problems of complexity. The classic, 10,000-year-old, institutional form taken by such clusters is … cities. Hence, a creative city is one where clashing and competitive complexity is clustered… and, latterly, networked.

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Process modeling is an emergent area of Information Systems research that is characterized through an abundance of conceptual work with little empirical research. To fill this gap, this paper reports on the development and validation of an instrument to measure user acceptance of process modeling grammars. We advance an extended model for a multi-stage measurement instrument development procedure, which incorporates feedback from both expert and user panels. We identify two main contributions: First, we provide a validated measurement instrument for the study of user acceptance of process modeling grammars, which can be used to assist in further empirical studies that investigate phenomena associated with the business process modeling domain. Second, in doing so, we describe in detail a procedural model for developing measurement instruments that ensures high levels of reliability and validity, which may assist fellow scholars in executing their empirical research.

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Motorcycle and scooter crashes are significant contributors to road trauma in many low, medium and high income countries. The APEC Transportation Working Group has commissioned CARRS-Q to develop a compendium of best practice measures that can be used to reduce crashes, post-crash trauma and associated socio-economic costs. The compendium will be informed by findings from a literature review and an expert survey. The literature review examined motorcycle and scooter safety usage and fatalities along with socio-cultural factors which might influence safety in each economy. A discussion is provided regarding the processes involved in the expert survey and how this might be integrated with the findings from the literature review. The implications for developing the compendium are discussed as is the next step of a workshop to further disseminate findings. This will enable the identification of important motorcycle safety issues in APEC economies and implications for implementation of countermeasures.

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Seated shot-putters rely on a customized assistive device called a throwing frame. Currently, the construction of each individual throwing frame is mainly driven by an empirical approach. One way to refine the conception is to improve the basic understanding of performance of seated shot-putters. The relationship between performance and throwing technique has been well described. Remarkably, the relationship between performance and throwing frame characteristics has received limited attention. The primary objective of this study was to present a cataloguing of characteristics of throwing frames used by seated shot-putters. This cataloguing consisted of defining and grouping 26 characteristics into three main categories (i.e., whole body, foot and upper limb specific characteristics) and seven sub-categories. The secondary objective of this study was to provide raw characterisations of the throwing frames for a group of athletes who participated in a world-class event. The characterisation consisted of describing the characteristics of each throwing frame. Potential relationships between characteristics, performance and classification were also identified. The cataloguing was achieved using a 6-step heuristic approach, involving expert opinions and the analysis of 215 attempts produced by 55 male athletes during the 2006 IPC Athletics World Championships. The distribution of samples across characteristics suggested a relevant level of comprehensiveness for the proposed cataloguing. The raw data, the profile of best athletes and the frequency of characteristics provided key benchmark information for construction of a throwing frame as well as coaching, classification and officiating. Analysis of data sets relating to characteristics, performance and classification were inconclusive.

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Background: In response to the need for more comprehensive quality assessment within Australian residential aged care facilities, the Clinical Care Indicator (CCI) Tool was developed to collect outcome data as a means of making inferences about quality. A national trial of its effectiveness and a Brisbane-based trial of its use within the quality improvement context determined the CCI Tool represented a potentially valuable addition to the Australian aged care system. This document describes the next phase in the CCI Tool.s development; the aims of which were to establish validity and reliability of the CCI Tool, and to develop quality indicator thresholds (benchmarks) for use in Australia. The CCI Tool is now known as the ResCareQA (Residential Care Quality Assessment). Methods: The study aims were achieved through a combination of quantitative data analysis, and expert panel consultations using modified Delphi process. The expert panel consisted of experienced aged care clinicians, managers, and academics; they were initially consulted to determine face and content validity of the ResCareQA, and later to develop thresholds of quality. To analyse its psychometric properties, ResCareQA forms were completed for all residents (N=498) of nine aged care facilities throughout Queensland. Kappa statistics were used to assess inter-rater and test-retest reliability, and Cronbach.s alpha coefficient calculated to determine internal consistency. For concurrent validity, equivalent items on the ResCareQA and the Resident Classification Scales (RCS) were compared using Spearman.s rank order correlations, while discriminative validity was assessed using known-groups technique, comparing ResCareQA results between groups with differing care needs, as well as between male and female residents. Rank-ordered facility results for each clinical care indicator (CCI) were circulated to the panel; upper and lower thresholds for each CCI were nominated by panel members and refined through a Delphi process. These thresholds indicate excellent care at one extreme and questionable care at the other. Results: Minor modifications were made to the assessment, and it was renamed the ResCareQA. Agreement on its content was reached after two Delphi rounds; the final version contains 24 questions across four domains, enabling generation of 36 CCIs. Both test-retest and inter-rater reliability were sound with median kappa values of 0.74 (test-retest) and 0.91 (inter-rater); internal consistency was not as strong, with a Chronbach.s alpha of 0.46. Because the ResCareQA does not provide a single combined score, comparisons for concurrent validity were made with the RCS on an item by item basis, with most resultant correlations being quite low. Discriminative validity analyses, however, revealed highly significant differences in total number of CCIs between high care and low care groups (t199=10.77, p=0.000), while the differences between male and female residents were not significant (t414=0.56, p=0.58). Clinical outcomes varied both within and between facilities; agreed upper and lower thresholds were finalised after three Delphi rounds. Conclusions: The ResCareQA provides a comprehensive, easily administered means of monitoring quality in residential aged care facilities that can be reliably used on multiple occasions. The relatively modest internal consistency score was likely due to the multi-factorial nature of quality, and the absence of an aggregate result for the assessment. Measurement of concurrent validity proved difficult in the absence of a gold standard, but the sound discriminative validity results suggest that the ResCareQA has acceptable validity and could be confidently used as an indication of care quality within Australian residential aged care facilities. The thresholds, while preliminary due to small sample size, enable users to make judgements about quality within and between facilities. Thus it is recommended the ResCareQA be adopted for wider use.

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Estimating potential health risks associated with recycled (reused) water is highly complex given the multiple factors affecting water quality. We take a conceptual model, which represents the factors and pathways by which recycled water may pose a risk of contracting gastroenteritis, convert the conceptual model to a Bayesian net, and quantify the model using one expert’s opinion. This allows us to make various predictions as to the risks posed under various scenarios. Bayesian nets provide an additional way of modeling the determinants of recycled water quality and elucidating their relative influence on a given disease outcome. The important contribution to Bayesian net methodology is that all model predictions, whether risk or relative risk estimates, are expressed as credible intervals.