Evaluation of a large-eddy model simulation of a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud using microwave radiometer, lidar and Doppler radar data

Using the Met Office large-eddy model (LEM) we simulate a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud that was observed from Chilbolton in southern England by a 94 GHz Doppler radar, a 905 nm lidar, a dual-wavelength microwave radiometer and also by four radiosondes. It is important to test and evaluate such simulations with observations, since there are significant differences between results from different cloud-resolving models for ice clouds. Simulating the Doppler radar and lidar data within the LEM allows us to compare observed and modelled quantities directly, and allows us to explore the relationships between observed and unobserved variables. For general-circulation models, which currently tend to give poor representations of mixed-phase clouds, the case shows the importance of using: (i) separate prognostic ice and liquid water, (ii) a vertical resolution that captures the thin layers of liquid water, and (iii) an accurate representation the subgrid vertical velocities that allow liquid water to form. It is shown that large-scale ascents and descents are significant for this case, and so the horizontally averaged LEM profiles are relaxed towards observed profiles to account for these. The LEM simulation then gives a reasonable. cloud, with an ice-water path approximately two thirds of that observed, with liquid water at the cloud top, as observed. However, the liquid-water cells that form in the updraughts at cloud top in the LEM have liquid-water paths (LWPs) up to half those observed, and there are too few cells, giving a mean LWP five to ten times smaller than observed. In reality, ice nucleation and fallout may deplete ice-nuclei concentrations at the cloud top, allowing more liquid water to form there, but this process is not represented in the model. Decreasing the heterogeneous nucleation rate in the LEM increased the LWP, which supports this hypothesis. The LEM captures the increase in the standard deviation in Doppler velocities (and so vertical winds) with height, but values are 1.5 to 4 times smaller than observed (although values are larger in an unforced model run, this only increases the modelled LWP by a factor of approximately two). The LEM data show that, for values larger than approximately 12 cm s(-1), the standard deviation in Doppler velocities provides an almost unbiased estimate of the standard deviation in vertical winds, but provides an overestimate for smaller values. Time-smoothing the observed Doppler velocities and modelled mass-squared-weighted fallspeeds shows that observed fallspeeds are approximately two-thirds of the modelled values. Decreasing the modelled fallspeeds to those observed increases the modelled IWC, giving an IWP 1.6 times that observed.

Evaluation of forest snow processes models (SnowMIP2)

Thirty‐three snowpack models of varying complexity and purpose were evaluated across a wide range of hydrometeorological and forest canopy conditions at five Northern Hemisphere locations, for up to two winter snow seasons. Modeled estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) or depth were compared to observations at forest and open sites at each location. Precipitation phase and duration of above‐freezing air temperatures are shown to be major influences on divergence and convergence of modeled estimates of the subcanopy snowpack. When models are considered collectively at all locations, comparisons with observations show that it is harder to model SWE at forested sites than open sites. There is no universal “best” model for all sites or locations, but comparison of the consistency of individual model performances relative to one another at different sites shows that there is less consistency at forest sites than open sites, and even less consistency between forest and open sites in the same year. A good performance by a model at a forest site is therefore unlikely to mean a good model performance by the same model at an open site (and vice versa). Calibration of models at forest sites provides lower errors than uncalibrated models at three out of four locations. However, benefits of calibration do not translate to subsequent years, and benefits gained by models calibrated for forest snow processes are not translated to open conditions.

In vitro evaluation of fibrolytic enzymes as additives for maize (Zea mays L.) silage - II. Effects on rate of acidification, fibre degradation during ensiling and rumen fermentation

A study was carried out to determine the influence of fibrolytic enzymes derived from mesophilic or thermophilic fungal sources, added at ensiling, on time-course fermentation characteristics and in vitro rumen degradation of maize silage. The mesophilic enzyme was a commercial product derived from Trichodenna reesei (L), whereas the thermophilic enzyme was a crude extract produced from Thermoascus aurantiacus (Ta) in this laboratory. The fungus was cultured using maize cobs as a carbon source. The resulting fermentation extract was deionised to remove sugars and characterised for its protein concentration, main and side enzymic activities, optimal pH, protein molecular mass and isoelectric point. In an additional study, both enzymes were added to maize forage (333.5 g DM/kg, 70.0, 469.8, 227.1 and 307.5 g/kg DM of CP, NDF, ADF and starch, respectively) at two levels each, normalized according to xylanase activity, and ensiled in 0.5 kg capacity laboratory minisilos. Duplicate silos were opened at 2, 4, 8, 15, and 60 days after ensiling, and analysed for chemical characteristics. Silages from 60 days were bulked and in vitro gas production (GP) and organic matter degradability (OMD) profiles evaluated using the Reading Pressure Technique (RPT), in a completely randomised design. The crude enzyme extract contained mainly xylanase and endoglucanase activities, with very low levels of exoglucanase, which probably limited hydrolysis of filter paper. The extract contained three major protein bands of between 29 and 55 kDa, with mainly acidic isoelectric points. Ensiling maize with enzymes lowered (P < 0.05) the final silage pH, with this effect being observed throughout the ensiling process. All enzyme treatments reduced (P < 0.05) ADF contents. Treatments including Ta produced more gas (P < 0.05) than the controls after 24 h incubation in vitro, whereas end point gas production at 96 h was not affected. Addition of Ta increased (P < 0.01) OMD after 12 h (410 and 416 g/kg versus 373 g/kg), whereas both L and Ta increased (P < 0.05) OMD after 24 h. Addition of enzymes from mesophilic or thermophilic sources to maize forage at ensiling increased the rate of acidification of the silages and improved in vitro degradation kinetics, suggesting an improvement in the nutritive quality. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Evaluation of NRC, UC Davis and ADAS approaches to estimate the metabolizable energy values of feeds at maintenance energy intake from equations utilizing chemical assays and in vitro determinations

Feed samples received by commercial analytical laboratories are often undefined or mixed varieties of forages, originate from various agronomic or geographical areas of the world, are mixtures (e.g., total mixed rations) and are often described incompletely or not at all. Six unified single equation approaches to predict the metabolizable energy (ME) value of feeds determined in sheep fed at maintenance ME intake were evaluated utilizing 78 individual feeds representing 17 different forages, grains, protein meals and by-product feedstuffs. The predictive approaches evaluated were two each from National Research Council [National Research Council (NRC), Nutrient Requirements of Dairy Cattle, seventh revised ed. National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 2001], University of California at Davis (UC Davis) and ADAS (Stratford, UK). Slopes and intercepts for the two ADAS approaches that utilized in vitro digestibility of organic matter and either measured gross energy (GE), or a prediction of GE from component assays, and one UC Davis approach, based upon in vitro gas production and some component assays, differed from both unity and zero, respectively, while this was not the case for the two NRC and one UC Davis approach. However, within these latter three approaches, the goodness of fit (r(2)) increased from the NRC approach utilizing lignin (0.61) to the NRC approach utilizing 48 h in vitro digestion of neutral detergent fibre (NDF:0.72) and to the UC Davis approach utilizing a 30 h in vitro digestion of NDF (0.84). The reason for the difference between the precision of the NRC procedures was the failure of assayed lignin values to accurately predict 48 h in vitro digestion of NDF. However, differences among the six predictive approaches in the number of supporting assays, and their costs, as well as that the NRC approach is actually three related equations requiring categorical description of feeds (making them unsuitable for mixed feeds) while the ADAS and UC Davis approaches are single equations, suggests that the procedure of choice will vary dependent Upon local conditions, specific objectives and the feedstuffs to be evaluated. In contrast to the evaluation of the procedures among feedstuffs, no procedure was able to consistently discriminate the ME values of individual feeds within feedstuffs determined in vivo, suggesting that the quest for an accurate and precise ME predictive approach among and within feeds, may remain to be identified. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

Use of thermography and fibre optics microscopy for the evaluation of railway structures in the Athens Metro in Greece (Invited Paper)

Rolling Contact Fatigue (RCF) is one of the main issues that concern, at least initially, the head of the railway; progressively they can be of very high importance as they can propagate inside the material with the risk of damaging the railway. In this work, two different non-destructive techniques, infrared thermography (IRT) and fibre optics microscopy (FOM), were used in the inspection of railways for the tracing of defects and deterioration signs. In the first instance, two different approaches (dynamic and pulsed thermography) were used, whilst in the case of FOM, microscopic characterisation of the railway heads and classification of the deterioration -- damage on the railways according to the UIC (International Union of Railways) code, took place. Results from both techniques are presented and discussed.

In vitro evaluation of the fermentation properties of galactooligosaccharides synthesised by alpha-galactosidase from Lactobacillus reuteri

Stirred, pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures were used to evaluate the in vitro utilisation by canine gut microflora of novel alpha-galactooligosaccharides synthesised with an enzyme extract from a canine Lactobacillus reuteri strain. Fructooligosaccharides (FOS), melibiose and raffinose were used as reference carbohydrates for the prebiotic properties of the synthesised oligosaccharide (galactosyl melibiose mixture-GMM). Addition of Lactobacillus acidophilus was used as control for the evaluation of the synbiotic properties of the oligosaccharide with L. reuteri. Populations of predominant gut bacterial groups were monitored over 48 h of batch culture by fluorescent in situ hybridisation, and short-chain fatty acid (SCFA) production was measured. GMM showed a higher increase in bifidobacteria and lactobacilli population number and size as well as a higher decrease in clostridia population number and size compared to the commercial prebiotics (FOS, melibiose, raffinose). This prebiotic effect was further increased by the addition of L. reuteri followed by a change in the SCFA production pattern compared to GMM alone or GMM with L. acidophilus. The observed change in SCFA production was in accordance with the fermentation properties of L. reuteri, suggesting that the novel synbiotic had a significant effect on the canine gut microflora fermentation.

Evaluation of the inclusion of a mixture of organic acids or lactulose into the feed of pigs experimentally challenged with Salmonella Typhimurium

A mixture of organic acids and lactulose for preventing or reducing colonization of the gut by Salmonella Typhimurium was evaluated in pigs. A total of 63 4-week-old commercial piglets were randomly distributed into three different experimental dietary groups: a plain diet without additives (PD) and the same diet supplemented with either 0.4% (w/v) formic acid and 0.4% lactic acid (w/v) (AC) or 1% (w/v) lactulose (LC). After 7 days of adaptation, two-thirds of the pigs (14 from each diet) were challenged with a 2-mL oral dose of 10(8) CFU/mL of Salmonella Typhimurium, leaving the remaining animals unchallenged (UC). After 4 and 10 days post-challenge, pigs were euthanized and the ileum and caecum content were aseptically sampled to (a) quantify lactic, formic, and short-chain fatty acids (SCFA), (b) quantify bacterial populations and Salmonella by fluorescence in situ hybridization and (c) qualitatively analyse bacterial populations through denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Modification of fermentation products and counts of some of the bacterial groups analysed in the challenged pigs receiving the treatments AC and LC were minimal. Treatments only influenced the bacterial diversity after 10 days post-challenge, with AC generating a lower number of DGGE bands than UC(P < 0.05). Neither the inclusion of a mixture of 0.4% (w/v) formic and 0.4% (w/v) lactic acids nor of 1% (w/v) lactulose in the feed influenced numbers of Salmonella in the ileum and caecum of experimentally challenged pigs. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In vitro evaluation of the fermentation properties and potential prebiotic activity of Agave fructans

Aims: This study was carried out to evaluate in vitro the fermentation properties and the potential prebiotic activity of Agave-fructans extracted from Agave tequilana (Predilife). Methods and Results: Five different commercial prebiotics were compared using 24-h pH-controlled anaerobic batch cultures inoculated with human faecal slurries. Measurement of prebiotic efficacy was obtained by comparing bacterial changes, and the production of short-chain fatty acids (SCFA) was also determined. Effects upon major groups of the microbiota were monitored over 24 h incubations by fluorescence in situ hybridization. SCFA were measured by HPLC. Fermentation of the Agave fructans (Predilife) resulted in a large increase in numbers of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli. Conclusions: Under the in vitro conditions used, this study has shown the differential impact of Predilife on the microbial ecology of the human gut. Significance and Impact of the Study: This is the first study reporting of a potential prebiotic mode of activity for Agave fructans investigated which significantly increased populations of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli compared to cellulose used as a control.

Prebiotic evaluation of a novel galactooligosaccharide mixture produced by the enzymatic activity of Bifidobacterium bifidum NCIMB 41171, in healthy humans: a randomized, double-blind, crossover, placebo-controlled intervention study

Background: Galactooligosaccharides are selectively fermented by the beneficial member of the colonic microflora contributing to the health of the host. Objective: We assessed the prebiotic potential of a novel galactooligosaccharide produced through the action of beta-galactosidases, originating from a probiotic Bifidobacterium bifidum strain, against a galactooligosaccharide produced through the action of an industrial P-galactosidase and a placebo. Design: Fifty-nine healthy human volunteers participated in this study. Initially, the effect of the matrix on the prebiotic properties of a commercially available galactooligosaccharide (7 g/d) was assessed during 7-d treatment periods with a 7-d washout period in between. During the second phase, 30 volunteers were assigned to a sequence of treatments (7 d) differing in the amount of the novel galactooligosaccharide (0, 3.6, or 7 g/d). Stools were recovered before and after each intervention, and bacteria numbers were determined by fluorescent in situ hybridization. Results: Addition of the novel galactooligosaccharide mixture significantly increased the bifidobacterial population ratio compared with the placebo (P < 0.05), whereas 7 g/d of the novel galactooligosaccharide significantly increased the bifidobacterial ratio compared with the commercial galactooligosaccharide (P < 0.05). Moreover, a significant relation (P < 0.001) between the bifidobacteria proportion and the novel galactooligosaccharide dose (0, 3.6, and 7 g/d) was observed. This relation was similar to the effect of the novel galactooligosaccharide on the prebiotic index of each dose. Conclusions: This study showed that galactooligosaccharide mixtures produced with different beta-galactosidases show different prebiotic properties and that, by using enzymes originating from bifidobacterial species, an increase in the bifidogenic properties of the prebiotic product is achievable.

Safety evaluation of oligofructose: 13 Week rat study and in vitro mutagenicity

Oligofructose (OF), comprised of fructose oligomers with a terminal glucose unit, is a family Of oligosaccharides derived from the hydrolysis of inulin. Consumption of OF in animals and humans increases colonic bifidobacteria levels. The present study evaluates the safety of OF in both a 13 week rat feeding Study and Using in Vitro mutagenicity tests. Fecal bifidobacteria levels were also determined by in situ hybridization to assess a biological function of OF. Rats received either a control diet OF diets containing one of four doses of OF. Total, HDL, and LDL-cholesterol levels were significantly lower at several time points during the study in groups receiving OF compared to controls with the largest effects Occurring in the high dose male animals. Weight gain in the male high dose group was significantly lower at early time points compared to controls but]lot Significantly different at the end of study. As expected, cecal weights increased in a dose-related manner and fecal bifidobacteria levels also demonstrated a dose-related increase. There were no consistent differences in gross pathology or histopathology related to dietary OF. OF did not induce a positive response in the Ames test or chromosomal aberration test with CHO cells. These results demonstrate no adverse effects of OF. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-benefit evaluation of routine influenza immunisation in people 65-74 years of age

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people aged 65-74 years in the absence of co-morbidity. DESIGN: Primary research: randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Primary care. PARTICIPANTS: People without risk factors for influenza or contraindications to vaccination were identified from 20 general practitioner (GP) practices in Liverpool in September 1999 and invited to participate in the study. There were 5875/9727 (60.4%) people aged 65-74 years identified as potentially eligible and, of these, 729 (12%) were randomised. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomised to receive either influenza vaccine or placebo (ratio 3:1), with all individuals receiving pneumococcal vaccine unless administered in the previous 10 years. Of the 729 people randomised, 552 received vaccine and 177 received placebo; 726 individuals were administered pneumococcal vaccine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC EVALUATION: GP attendance with influenza-like illness (ILI) or pneumonia (primary outcome measure); or any respiratory symptoms; hospitalisation with a respiratory illness; death; participant self-reported ILI; quality of life (QoL) measures at 2, 4 and 6 months post-study vaccination; adverse reactions 3 days after vaccination. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to identify the incremental cost associated with the avoidance of episodes of influenza in the vaccination population and an impact model was used to extrapolate the cost-effectiveness results obtained from the trial to assess their generalisability throughout the NHS. RESULTS: In England and Wales, weekly consultations for influenza and ILI remained at baseline levels (less than 50 per 100,000 population) until week 50/1999 and then increased rapidly, peaking during week 2/2000 with a rate of 231/100,000. This rate fell within the range of 'higher than expected seasonal activity' of 200-400/100,000. Rates then quickly declined, returning to baseline levels by week 5/2000. The predominant circulating strain during this period was influenza A (H3N2). Five (0.9%) people in the vaccine group were diagnosed by their GP with an ILI compared to two (1.1%) in the placebo group [relative risk (RR), 0.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.16 to 4.1]. No participants were diagnosed with pneumonia by their GP and there were no hospitalisations for respiratory illness in either group. Significantly fewer vaccinated individuals self-reported a single ILI (4.6% vs 8.9%, RR, 0.51; 95% CI for RR, 0.28 to 0.96). There was no significant difference in any of the QoL measurements over time between the two groups. Reported systemic side-effects showed no significant differences between groups. Local side-effects occurred with a significantly increased incidence in the vaccine group (11.3% vs 5.1%, p = 0.02). Each GP consultation avoided by vaccination was estimated from trial data to generate a net NHS cost of 174 pounds. CONCLUSIONS: No difference was seen between groups for the primary outcome measure, although the trial was underpowered to demonstrate a true difference. Vaccination had no significant effect on any of the QoL measures used, although vaccinated individuals were less likely to self-report ILI. The analysis did not suggest that influenza vaccination in healthy people aged 65-74 years would lead to lower NHS costs. Future research should look at ways to maximise vaccine uptake in people at greatest risk from influenza and also the level of vaccine protection afforded to people from different age and socio-economic populations.

Synthesis and biological in vitro evaluation of novel PEG-psoralen conjugates

Psoralens are well-known photosensitizers, and 8- methoxypsoralen and 4,5',8-trimethylpsoralen are widely used in photomedicine as "psoralens plus UVA therapy" (PUVA), in photopheresis, and in sterilization of blood preparations. In an attempt to improve the therapeutic efficiency of PUVA therapy and photopheresis, four poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG)-psoralen conjugates were synthesized to promote tumor targeting by the enhanced permeability and retention (EPR) effect. Peptide linkers were used to exploit specific enzymatic cleavage by lysosomal proteases. A new psoralen, 4-hydroxymethyl-4', 8-dimethylpsoralen (6), suitable for polymer conjugation was synthesized. The hydroxy group allowed exploring different strategies for PEG conjugation, and linkages with different stability such ester or urethanes were obtained. PEG (5 kDa) was covalently conjugated to the new psoralen derivative using four different linkages, namely, (i) direct ester bond (7), (ii) ester linkage with a peptide spacer (8), (iii) a carbamic linker (9), and (iv) a carbamic linker with a peptide spacer (12). The stability of these new conjugates was assessed at different pHs, in plasma and following incubation with cathepsin B. Conjugates 7 and 8 were rapidly hydrolyzed in plasma, while 9 was stable in buffer and in the presence of cathepsin B. As expected, only the conjugates containing the peptide linker released the drug in presence of cathepsin B. In vitro evaluation of the cytotoxic activity in the presence and absence of light was carried out in two cell lines (MCF-7 and A375 cells). Conjugates 7 and 8 displayed a similar activity to the free drug (probably due to the low stability of the ester linkage). Interestingly, the conjugates containing the carbamate linkage (9 and 12) were completely inactive in the dark (IC50 > 100 mu M in both cell lines). However, antiproliferative activity become apparent after UV irradiation. Conjugate 12 appears to be the most promising for future in vivo evaluation, since it was relatively stable in plasma, which should allow tumor targeting and drug release to occur by cathepsin B-mediated hydrolysis.

Communicating risk of medication side effects: an empirical evaluation of EU recommended terminology

Two experiments compared people's interpretation of verbal and numerical descriptions of the risk of medication side effects occurring. The verbal descriptors were selected from those recommended for use by the European Union (very common, common, uncommon, rare, very rare). Both experiments used a controlled empirical methodology, in which nearly 500 members of the general population were presented with a fictitious (but realistic) scenario about visiting the doctor and being prescribed medication, together with information about the medicine's side effects and their probability of occurrence. Experiment 1 found that, in all three age groups tested (18 - 40, 41 - 60 and over 60), participants given a verbal descriptor (very common) estimated side effect risk to be considerably higher than those given a comparable numerical description. Furthermore, the differences in interpretation were reflected in their judgements of side effect severity, risk to health, and intention to comply. Experiment 2 confirmed these findings using two different verbal descriptors (common and rare) and in scenarios which described either relatively severe or relatively mild side effects. Strikingly, only 7 out of 180 participants in this study gave a probability estimate which fell within the EU assigned numerical range. Thus, large scale use of the descriptors could have serious negative consequences for individual and public health. We therefore recommend that the EU and National authorities suspend their recommendations regarding these descriptors until a more substantial evidence base is available to support their appropriate use.

A technique for evaluation of interactive evolutionary systems

Very large scale scheduling and planning tasks cannot be effectively addressed by fully automated schedule optimisation systems, since many key factors which govern 'fitness' in such cases are unformalisable. This raises the question of an interactive (or collaborative) approach, where fitness is assigned by the expert user. Though well-researched in the domains of interactively evolved art and music, this method is as yet rarely used in logistics. This paper concerns a difficulty shared by all interactive evolutionary systems (IESs), but especially those used for logistics or design problems. The difficulty is that objective evaluation of IESs is severely hampered by the need for expert humans in the loop. This makes it effectively impossible to, for example, determine with statistical confidence any ranking among a decent number of configurations for the parameters and strategy choices. We make headway into this difficulty with an Automated Tester (AT) for such systems. The AT replaces the human in experiments, and has parameters controlling its decision-making accuracy (modelling human error) and a built-in notion of a target solution which may typically be at odds with the solution which is optimal in terms of formalisable fitness. Using the AT, plausible evaluations of alternative designs for the IES can be done, allowing for (and examining the effects of) different levels of user error. We describe such an AT for evaluating an IES for very large scale planning.