Development of selection methods for steels and their heat treatments

Designers who want to manufacture a hardenable steel component need to select both the steel and its heat treatment. This project aims to develop a selection methodology for steels and process routes as an aid to designers. Three studies were conducted: - production of software to calculate the "equivalent diameter" and "equivalent Jominy distance" for simple shapes of a steel component; - prediction of semi-empirical Jominy curves (as-cooled) using CCT diagrams and process modelling methods, which were validated by experiment on plain carbon steels; - investigation of tempering of Jominy bars to explore the potential for semi-empirical models for the hardness after tempering.

Methods of multiparameter inversion of seismic data using the acoustic and elastic born approximations

This thesis presents two different forms of the Born approximations for acoustic and elastic wavefields and discusses their application to the inversion of seismic data. The Born approximation is valid for small amplitude heterogeneities superimposed over a slowly varying background. The first method is related to frequency-wavenumber migration methods. It is shown to properly recover two independent acoustic parameters within the bandpass of the source time function of the experiment for contrasts of about 5 percent from data generated using an exact theory for flat interfaces. The independent determination of two parameters is shown to depend on the angle coverage of the medium. For surface data, the impedance profile is well recovered.

The second method explored is mathematically similar to iterative tomographic methods recently introduced in the geophysical literature. Its basis is an integral relation between the scattered wavefield and the medium parameters obtained after applying a far-field approximation to the first-order Born approximation. The Davidon-Fletcher-Powell algorithm is used since it converges faster than the steepest descent method. It consists essentially of successive backprojections of the recorded wavefield, with angular and propagation weighing coefficients for density and bulk modulus. After each backprojection, the forward problem is computed and the residual evaluated. Each backprojection is similar to a before-stack Kirchhoff migration and is therefore readily applicable to seismic data. Several examples of reconstruction for simple point scatterer models are performed. Recovery of the amplitudes of the anomalies are improved with successive iterations. Iterations also improve the sharpness of the images.

The elastic Born approximation, with the addition of a far-field approximation is shown to correspond physically to a sum of WKBJ-asymptotic scattered rays. Four types of scattered rays enter in the sum, corresponding to P-P, P-S, S-P and S-S pairs of incident-scattered rays. Incident rays propagate in the background medium, interacting only once with the scatterers. Scattered rays propagate as if in the background medium, with no interaction with the scatterers. An example of P-wave impedance inversion is performed on a VSP data set consisting of three offsets recorded in two wells.

Geometric integration applied to moving mesh methods and degenerate Lagrangians

Moving mesh methods (also called r-adaptive methods) are space-adaptive strategies used for the numerical simulation of time-dependent partial differential equations. These methods keep the total number of mesh points fixed during the simulation, but redistribute them over time to follow the areas where a higher mesh point density is required. There are a very limited number of moving mesh methods designed for solving field-theoretic partial differential equations, and the numerical analysis of the resulting schemes is challenging. In this thesis we present two ways to construct r-adaptive variational and multisymplectic integrators for (1+1)-dimensional Lagrangian field theories. The first method uses a variational discretization of the physical equations and the mesh equations are then coupled in a way typical of the existing r-adaptive schemes. The second method treats the mesh points as pseudo-particles and incorporates their dynamics directly into the variational principle. A user-specified adaptation strategy is then enforced through Lagrange multipliers as a constraint on the dynamics of both the physical field and the mesh points. We discuss the advantages and limitations of our methods. The proposed methods are readily applicable to (weakly) non-degenerate field theories---numerical results for the Sine-Gordon equation are presented.

In an attempt to extend our approach to degenerate field theories, in the last part of this thesis we construct higher-order variational integrators for a class of degenerate systems described by Lagrangians that are linear in velocities. We analyze the geometry underlying such systems and develop the appropriate theory for variational integration. Our main observation is that the evolution takes place on the primary constraint and the 'Hamiltonian' equations of motion can be formulated as an index 1 differential-algebraic system. We then proceed to construct variational Runge-Kutta methods and analyze their properties. The general properties of Runge-Kutta methods depend on the 'velocity' part of the Lagrangian. If the 'velocity' part is also linear in the position coordinate, then we show that non-partitioned variational Runge-Kutta methods are equivalent to integration of the corresponding first-order Euler-Lagrange equations, which have the form of a Poisson system with a constant structure matrix, and the classical properties of the Runge-Kutta method are retained. If the 'velocity' part is nonlinear in the position coordinate, we observe a reduction of the order of convergence, which is typical of numerical integration of DAEs. We also apply our methods to several models and present the results of our numerical experiments.

Sieve methods

Preface: The main goal of this work is to give an introductory account of sieve methods that would be understandable with only a slight knowledge of analytic number theory. These notes are based to a large extent on lectures on sieve methods given by Professor Van Lint and the author in a number theory seminar during the 1970-71 academic year, but rather extensive changes have been made in both the content and the presentation...

Accelerogram processing using reliability bounds and optimal correction methods

This study addresses the problem of obtaining reliable velocities and displacements from accelerograms, a concern which often arises in earthquake engineering. A closed-form acceleration expression with random parameters is developed to test any strong-motion accelerogram processing method. Integration of this analytical time history yields the exact velocities, displacements and Fourier spectra. Noise and truncation can also be added. A two-step testing procedure is proposed and the original Volume II routine is used as an illustration. The main sources of error are identified and discussed. Although these errors may be reduced, it is impossible to extract the true time histories from an analog or digital accelerogram because of the uncertain noise level and missing data. Based on these uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is proposed as a new accelerogram processing method. A most probable record is presented as well as a reliability interval which reflects the level of error-uncertainty introduced by the recording and digitization process. The data is processed in the frequency domain, under assumptions governing either the initial value or the temporal mean of the time histories. This new processing approach is tested on synthetic records. It induces little error and the digitization noise is adequately bounded. Filtering is intended to be kept to a minimum and two optimal error-reduction methods are proposed. The "noise filters" reduce the noise level at each harmonic of the spectrum as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio. However, the correction at low frequencies is not sufficient to significantly reduce the drifts in the integrated time histories. The "spectral substitution method" uses optimization techniques to fit spectral models of near-field, far-field or structural motions to the amplitude spectrum of the measured data. The extremes of the spectrum of the recorded data where noise and error prevail are then partly altered, but not removed, and statistical criteria provide the choice of the appropriate cutoff frequencies. This correction method has been applied to existing strong-motion far-field, near-field and structural data with promising results. Since this correction method maintains the whole frequency range of the record, it should prove to be very useful in studying the long-period dynamics of local geology and structures.

Multiscale model reduction methods for deterministic and stochastic partial differential equations

Partial differential equations (PDEs) with multiscale coefficients are very difficult to solve due to the wide range of scales in the solutions. In the thesis, we propose some efficient numerical methods for both deterministic and stochastic PDEs based on the model reduction technique.

For the deterministic PDEs, the main purpose of our method is to derive an effective equation for the multiscale problem. An essential ingredient is to decompose the harmonic coordinate into a smooth part and a highly oscillatory part of which the magnitude is small. Such a decomposition plays a key role in our construction of the effective equation. We show that the solution to the effective equation is smooth, and could be resolved on a regular coarse mesh grid. Furthermore, we provide error analysis and show that the solution to the effective equation plus a correction term is close to the original multiscale solution.

For the stochastic PDEs, we propose the model reduction based data-driven stochastic method and multilevel Monte Carlo method. In the multiquery, setting and on the assumption that the ratio of the smallest scale and largest scale is not too small, we propose the multiscale data-driven stochastic method. We construct a data-driven stochastic basis and solve the coupled deterministic PDEs to obtain the solutions. For the tougher problems, we propose the multiscale multilevel Monte Carlo method. We apply the multilevel scheme to the effective equations and assemble the stiffness matrices efficiently on each coarse mesh grid. In both methods, the $\KL$ expansion plays an important role in extracting the main parts of some stochastic quantities.

For both the deterministic and stochastic PDEs, numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the methods. We also show the computational time cost reduction in the numerical examples.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.