Strategic Votes and Sincere Counterfactuals

The Random Utility Model (RUM) of voting behavior can account for strategic voting by making use of proxy indicators that measure voter incentives to vote strategically. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new method to estimate the RUM in the presence of strategic voters, without having to construct proxy measures of strategic voting incentives. Our method can be used to infer the counterfactual sincere vote of those who vote strategically and provides an estimate of the size of strategic voting. We illustrate the procedure using post-electoral survey data from Spain. Our calculations indicate that strategic voting in Spain is about 2.19 per cent

Historia de una heterodoxia abertzale. ETA político-militar, EIA y Euskadiko Ezkerra (1974-1994)

625 p. : graf.

可冲刷坡面滚波数值模拟研究

应用一维水沙耦合数学模型研究了可冲刷坡面上滚波的水动力学特性.模型的基本控制方程采用完整的、基于守恒定律的一维浅水动力学方程,运用能够捕捉激波和泥沙运动不连续性的WAF TVD二阶数值格式离散控制方程.通过复演定床滚波的运动特点,对模型进行了验证.可冲刷坡面的滚波数值模拟结果表明,床面形态对滚波水动力学特性有显著的影响.

Structure-function studies of serine hydrolases: synthesis of a gene for ∝-lytic protease and the purification and characterization of a mutant β-lactamase

The author has constructed a synthetic gene for ∝-lytic protease. Since the DNA sequence of the protein is not known, the gene was designed by using the reverse translation of ∝-lytic protease's amino acid sequence. Unique restriction sites are carefully sought in the degenerate DNA sequence to aid in future mutagenesis studies. The unique restriction sites are designed approximately 50 base pairs apart and their appropriate codons used in the DNA sequence. The codons used to construct the DNA sequence of ∝-lytic protease are preferred codons in E-coli or used in the production of β-lactamase. Codon usage is also distributed evenly to ensure that one particular codon is not heavily used. The gene is essentially constructed from the outside in. The gene is built in a stepwise fashion using plasmids as the vehicles for the ∝-lytic oligomers. The use of plasmids allows the replication and isolation of large quantities of the intermediates during gene synthesis. The ∝-lytic DNA is a double-stranded oligomer that has sufficient overhang and sticky ends to anneal correctly in the vector. After six steps of incorporating ∝-lytic DNA, the gene is completed and sequenced to ensure that the correct DNA sequence is present and that no mutations occurred in the structural gene.

β-lactamase is the other serine hydrolase studied in this thesis. The author used the class A RTEM-1 β- lactamase encoded on the plasmid pBR322 to investigate the roll of the conserved threonine residue at position 71. Cassette mutagenesis was previously used to generate all possible amino acid substitutions at position 71. The work presented here describes the purification and kinetic characterization of a T71H mutant previously constructed by S. Schultz. The mutated gene was transferred into plasmid pJN for expression and induced with IPTG. The enzyme is purified by column chromatography and FPLC to homogeneity. Kinetic studies reveal that the mutant has lower k_(cat) values on benzylpenicillin, cephalothin and 6-aminopenicillanic acid but no changes in k_m except for cephalothin which is approximately 4 times higher. The mutant did not change siginificantly in its pH profile compared to the wild-type enzyme. Also, the mutant is more sensitive to thermal denaturation as compared to the wild-type enzyme. However, experimental evidence indicates that the probable generation of a positive charge at position 71 thermally stabilized the mutant.

Studies in vortex motion

This thesis covers four different problems in the understanding of vortex sheets, and these are presented in four chapters.

In Chapter 1, free streamline theory is used to determine the steady solutions of an array of identical, hollow or stagnant core vortices in an inviscid, incompressible fluid. Assuming the array is symmetric to rotation through π radians about an axis through any vortex centre, there are two solutions or no solutions depending on whether A^(1/2)/L is less than or greater than 0.38 where A is the area of the vortex and L is the separation distance. Stability analysis shows that the more deformed shape is unstable to infinitesimal symmetric disturbances which leave the centres of the vortices undisplaced.

Chapter 2 is concerned with the roll-up of vortex sheets in homogeneous fluid. The flow over conventional and ring wings is used to test the method of Fink and Soh (1974). Despite modifications which improve the accuracy of the method, unphysical results occur. A possible explanation for this is that small scales are important and an alternate method based on "Cloud-in-Cell" techniques is introduced. The results show small scale growth and amalgamation into larger structures.

The motion of a buoyant pair of line vortices of opposite circulation is considered in Chapter 3. The density difference between the fluid carried by the vortices and the fluid outside is considered small, so that the Boussinesq approximation may be used. A macroscopic model is developed which shows the formation of a detrainment filament and this is included as a modification to the model. The results agree well with the numerical solution as developed by Hill (1975b) and show that after an initial slowdown, the vortices begin to accelerate downwards.

Chapter 4 reproduces completely a paper that has already been published (Baker, Barker, Bofah and Saffman (1974)) on the effect of "vortex wandering" on the measurement of velocity profiles of the trailing vortices behind a wing.

Versuche mit einem modifizierten Rollengeschirr für Garnelenbaumkurren

With a traditional roller gear, only the rollers in the centre are working correctly. The rollers on both sides are more or less gliding on the sea bottom because their axis are not in a position perpendicular to the towing direction. Sediment is stirred up by these gliding rollers coupled with a negative bottom impact of this gear. With a modified roller gear for shrimp beam trawls the axis of all rollers are orientated 90° to the towing direction enabling all rollers to roll correctly on the sea bottom.

The federal photovoltaics commercialization program

The dissertation presents a political and economic history of the federal government's program to commercialize photovoltaic energy for terrestrial use. Chapter 1 is a detailed history of the program. Chapter 2 is a brief review of the Congressional roll call voting literature. Chapter 3 develops PV benefit measures at the state and Congressional district level necessary for an econometric analysis of PV roll call voting. Chapter 4 presents the econometric analysis.

Because PV power was considerably more expensive than conventional power, the program was designed to make PV a significant power source in the long term, emphasizing research and development, although sizeable amounts have been spent for procurement (direct government purchases and indirectly through tax credits). The decentralized R and D program pursued alternative approaches in parallel, with subsequent funding dependent on earlier progress. Funding rose rapidly in the 1970s before shrinking in the 1980s. Tax credits were introduced in 1978, with the last of the credits due to expire this year.

Major issues in the program have been the appropriate magnitude of demonstrations and government procurement, whether decentralized, residential use or centralized utility generation would first be economic, the role of storage in PV, and the role of PV in a utility's generation mix.

Roll call voting on solar energy (all votes analyzed occurred from 1975-1980) was influenced in a cross-sectional sense by all the influences predicted: party and ideology, local economic benefits of the technology, local PV federal spending and manufacturing, and appropriations committee membership. The cross-sectional results for ideology are consistent with the strongly ideological character of solar energy politics and the timing of funding increases and decreases discussed in Chapter 1. Local PV spending and manufacturing was less significant than ideology or the economic benefits of the technology. Because time series analysis of the votes was not possible, it is not possible to test the role of economic benefits to the nation as a whole.

Maitasunean eta errespetuan hezten: 0-3 urte bitartekoen harmonia

LABURPENA: Aurrerapen zientifikoek aurrera egin ahala, lehen haurtzarorako begirada eraldatu egin da, bereziki garapen motorraren alorrean. Haurtxoa izaki pasibo bezala ikusten zuten ikuskerek, subjektuaren konpetentzia goiztiarren aurrean begiruneko jarrerak gartu dituzte. Lan honetan kalitatezko hezkuntza eredu instituzionalizatua garatu zuen Emmi Pikler-en ekarpenak aztertuko ditugu. Eredu honek printzipio pedagogiko zehatz batzuen arabera jaioberria eta haurtxo txikia ikusteko beste era bat eta hezitzaile bezala zaintzen dugun ume bakoitzarekiko betetzen dugun rolaren eraldaketa proposatzen du. Honek hezitzailearen jardunbide tradizionala birplanteatzera bultzatzen gaitu, haurrenganako maitasuna eta begirunea oinarritzat duen hezkuntza sistema bat eraiki ahal izateko.

Voting games with incomplete information

We examine voting situations in which individuals have incomplete information over each others' true preferences. In many respects, this work is motivated by a desire to provide a more complete understanding of so-called probabilistic voting.

Chapter 2 examines the similarities and differences between the incentives faced by politicians who seek to maximize expected vote share, expected plurality, or probability of victory in single member: single vote, simple plurality electoral systems. We find that, in general, the candidates' optimal policies in such an electoral system vary greatly depending on their objective function. We provide several examples, as well as a genericity result which states that almost all such electoral systems (with respect to the distributions of voter behavior) will exhibit different incentives for candidates who seek to maximize expected vote share and those who seek to maximize probability of victory.

In Chapter 3, we adopt a random utility maximizing framework in which individuals' preferences are subject to action-specific exogenous shocks. We show that Nash equilibria exist in voting games possessing such an information structure and in which voters and candidates are each aware that every voter's preferences are subject to such shocks. A special case of our framework is that in which voters are playing a Quantal Response Equilibrium (McKelvey and Palfrey (1995), (1998)). We then examine candidate competition in such games and show that, for sufficiently large electorates, regardless of the dimensionality of the policy space or the number of candidates, there exists a strict equilibrium at the social welfare optimum (i.e., the point which maximizes the sum of voters' utility functions). In two candidate contests we find that this equilibrium is unique.

Finally, in Chapter 4, we attempt the first steps towards a theory of equilibrium in games possessing both continuous action spaces and action-specific preference shocks. Our notion of equilibrium, Variational Response Equilibrium, is shown to exist in all games with continuous payoff functions. We discuss the similarities and differences between this notion of equilibrium and the notion of Quantal Response Equilibrium and offer possible extensions of our framework.

Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out on election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and 1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education, with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger electorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put, the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.

Cosmological consequences of dark matter interactions and vacuum fluctuations

This thesis is divided into two parts: interacting dark matter and fluctuations in cosmology. There is an incongruence between the properties that dark matter is expected to possess between the early universe and the late universe. Weakly-interacting dark matter yields the observed dark matter relic density and is consistent with large-scale structure formation; however, there is strong astrophysical evidence in favor of the idea that dark matter has large self-interactions. The first part of this thesis presents two models in which the nature of dark matter fundamentally changes as the universe evolves. In the first model, the dark matter mass and couplings depend on the value of a chameleonic scalar field that changes as the universe expands. In the second model, dark matter is charged under a hidden SU(N) gauge group and eventually undergoes confinement. These models introduce very different mechanisms to explain the separation between the physics relevant for freezeout and for small-scale dynamics.

As the universe continues to evolve, it will asymptote to a de Sitter vacuum phase. Since there is a finite temperature associated with de Sitter space, the universe is typically treated as a thermal system, subject to rare thermal fluctuations, such as Boltzmann brains. The second part of this thesis begins by attempting to escape this unacceptable situation within the context of known physics: vacuum instability induced by the Higgs field. The vacuum decay rate competes with the production rate of Boltzmann brains, and the cosmological measures that have a sufficiently low occurrence of Boltzmann brains are given more credence. Upon further investigation, however, there are certain situations in which de Sitter space settles into a quiescent vacuum with no fluctuations. This reasoning not only provides an escape from the Boltzmann brain problem, but it also implies that vacuum states do not uptunnel to higher-energy vacua and that perturbations do not decohere during slow-roll inflation, suggesting that eternal inflation is much less common than often supposed. Instead, decoherence occurs during reheating, so this analysis does not alter the conventional understanding of the origin of density fluctuations from primordial inflation.

Entrainment of fine sediments by turbulent flows

A study was made of the means by which turbulent flows entrain sediment grains from alluvial stream beds. Entrainment was considered to include both the initiation of sediment motion and the suspension of grains by the flow. Observations of grain motion induced by turbulent flows led to the formulation of an entrainment hypothesis. It was based on the concept of turbulent eddies disrupting the viscous sublayer and impinging directly onto the grain surface. It is suggested that entrainment results from the interaction between fluid elements within an eddy and the sediment grains.

A pulsating jet was used to simulate the flow conditions in a turbulent boundary layer. Evidence is presented to establish the validity of this representation. Experiments were made to determine the dependence of jet strength, defined below, upon sediment and fluid properties. For a given sediment and fluid, and fixed jet geometry there were two critical values of jet strength: one at which grains started to roll across the bed, and one at which grains were projected up from the bed. The jet strength K, is a function of the pulse frequency, ω, and the pulse amplitude, A, defined by

K = Aω^-s

Where s is the slope of a plot of log A against log ω. Pulse amplitude is equal to the volume of fluid ejected at each pulse divided by the cross sectional area of the jet tube.

Dimensional analysis was used to determine the parameters by which the data from the experiments could be correlated. Based on this, a method was devised for computing the pulse amplitude and frequency necessary either to move or project grains from the bed for any specified fluid and sediment combination.

Experiments made in a laboratory flume with a turbulent flow over a sediment bed are described. Dye injection was used to show the presence, in a turbulent boundary layer, of two important aspects of the pulsating jet model and the impinging eddy hypothesis. These were the intermittent nature of the sublayer and the presence of velocities with vertical components adjacent to the sediment bed.

A discussion of flow conditions, and the resultant grain motion, that occurred over sediment beds of different form is given. The observed effects of the sediment and fluid interaction are explained, in each case, in terms of the entrainment hypothesis.

The study does not suggest that the proposed entrainment mechanism is the only one by which grains can be entrained. However, in the writer’s opinion, the evidence presented strongly suggests that the impingement of turbulent eddies onto a sediment bed plays a dominant role in the process.

Krisia eta politikak. Irrati-telebista publikoa ikusmiran : Ikus-entzunezko Komunikazio eta Publizitate Saileko II Nazioarteko Kongresua : aktak : (UPV/EHU) Bilbao 2012ko urriaren 4 eta 5

1. Ponentziak: - Public Service Broadcasting in Europe: a comparative analysis. - Lengua, poder y espacio de comunicación. Cataluña y el papel de la CCMA en la normalización del catalán. - Medios públicos, democracia y el rol de la Universidad Pública. - Servicio público radiotelevisivo, independencia de gestión e informativa. - Retos para un espacio vasco de comunicación. El papel de EITB en el sistema comunicativo Vasco. 2. Komunikazioak : I. Irrati-telebista zerbitzu publikoaren finantzaketa - I. La financiación del servicio público de radiotelevisión: - El efecto dominó. Nuevas estrategias de financiación del documental creativo ante la crisis de la televisión pública en Europa. - El Comercio ubicuo como medio de financiación de las televisiones públicas. - Euskal zinemaren ekoizpena eta finantzazioa: EiTBren funtzioa. - The Financing of Public Television in Spain, the chronicles of an announced death. Country case analysis and proposals for funding the wreck. - Europako hizkuntza gutxituetako irrati-telebista publikoak: eragin ekonomikoa eta finantzaketa arazoak. II. Hedabide publikoak teknologia berrien erronkaren aurrean : - Los servicios públicos europeos de radio y televisión ante la convergencia mediática. - Análisis de contenido longitudinal de rtve.es y canalsur.es. La selección y jerarquización de la noticias principales de portada. - RTVE a la carta en tiempos de crisis. Digitalización en el contexto de la crisis económica. De los canales temáticos a la televisión a la carta. - La social TV revoluciona el panorama de la televisión convencional. Análisis del fenómeno de los twittersodios en RTVE. - Televisiones autonómicas y redes sociales. - Análisis de los contenidos audiovisuales en los agregadores de notas de prensa. - Impacto de Internet en la TV generalista: Innovación en los contenidos y nuevas fórmulas de negocio. III. Informazio-saioak hedabide publikoetan : - La calidad y el rigor en los informativos de TVE. - Percepción de la independencia informativa en la radiotelevisión pública a través de los debates de la comisión de control parlamentario del congreso de los diputados, tras la aprobación de la ley 17/2006. -¿Propaganda o información? El tratamiento discursivo de la actualidad valenciana en los informativos de Canal 9. - Medios públicos y comunicadores de confianza. La sintonía con el público como rutina profesional. - La percepción de los jóvenes andaluces del modelo de servicio público de la RTVA. - La construcción mediática de los candidatos. Los informativos de las televisiones públicas en campaña electoral. - Análisis de la gestión y regulación de RTVE (periodo 2004-2011) y su influencia en la información periodística. IV. Irrati publikoaren erronkak - La radio local: una especie en peligro de extinción. El caso de Girona. - Hego Euskal Herriko Udal Irratiak, eredu baten porrota. - La extinción de la proximidad en la radio pública estatal. - Desafíos de la radiodifusión pública y local en Andalucía. V. Hedabide publikoetako profesionalak: - El Estatuto de Redacción en EITB: Un sueño a punto de convertirse en realidad. - La reivindicación de los profesionales ante el nuevo escenario de la televisión pública en España. - La educación en Competencia Mediática de los espectadores y de los profesionales de la televisión pública. - Libros de estilo y directrices editoriales: referente de calidad en el Periodismo audiovisual y multimedia de los medios públicos. VI. Telebista publikoen gobernantza: telebista autonomikoen kasua: - Hacia un nuevo modelo en tiempos de crisis económica: el caso de la televisión autonómica valenciana. - Retos y perspectivas para la televisión pública andaluza. - El reflejo de Caín. Política y televisión pública en el Principado de Asturias (2005-2012). - Empresa de comunicación y entorno político. El porqué, en su momento, del servicio público audiovisual en Asturias. - Canal Sur Televisión en tiempos de crisis. ¿El fin de un modelo público de televisión en Andalucía? VII. Irrati-telebista publikoaren erregulazioa: - La corregulación como aplicación y complemento del marco legal. La necesidad de repensar el gobierno del sector audiovisual. - Los consejos audiovisuales españoles en el marco de las autoridades de regulación europeas del audiovisual. - Valores de servicio

Política y medios de comunicación: reflexiones poliédricas sobre una relación compleja

Índice: - Introducción (Miguel Ángel Casado y Jone Martínez). - Presentación del libro-CD Elecciones vascas 2009 (José Ignacio Armentia). - Elecciones vascas 2009. Siete diarios, tres candidatos y un diálogo (Iker Merodio). - Medios y política desde la Academia (José V. Idoyaga). - Comunicación y poder (Pedro Ibarra). - Apuntes desconcertados de un universitario de larga relación con los medios ahora metido a político (Imanol Zubero). - Las televisiones, al servicio de la campaña electoral (Marian González). - Cuando la política se estrecha, los políticos son el problema. Un apunte sobre prensa y política (Xabier Aierdi). - La comunicación en tus manos (Paul Ríos). - Política digital en 2010 (Mikel Agirregabiria). - Komunikabideak eta politika, AHT kasua aztergai: abiadura handiko informazioa, trena norantz doa? AHT eta prensa Euskal Herrian (Iñaki Barcena). - Komunikabideak eta politika. Zientzia politikotik ikuspegi bat: informazioaren mozorroa aztergai (Izaro Gorostidi). - Movimientos sociales y medios de comunicación: el caso de las movilizaciones anti- Bolonia (Joseba Fernández). - La autodeterminación como solución política a una Transición democrática mal resuelta (Cristina Perales). - Políticos y periodistas: reflexiones para un debate inacabado (Txema Ramírez de la Piscina). - Políticos y periodistas (Sonia Hernando). - Políticos vs. periodistas (Josu Segovia). - Periodismo y política (Pedro García). - La prensa y los círculos de poder. La prensa en los círculos de poder (Aratzazu Zugasti). - Medios de comunicación y discursos políticos. El reto de asumir responsabilidades sociales (Soraia Chacón). - Elecciones vascas 2009. Política y comunicación (Andoni Ortuzar). Información 2.0, ¿quiénes ejercen hoy la influencia? ¿Es el fin de la agenda setting? (Alain Coloma). - XXI. mendeko laugarren boterea: gizartea (Ugaitz Zabala). - Política y medios de comunicación: una relación de amor-odio permanente (Oskar Matute).

Secretariado Sul Americano e Partido Comunista do Brasil (1926-1930)

A presente dissertação investigou as concepções do Secretariado Sul-Americano (SSA), órgão da Internacional Comunista (IC), com sede na Argentina, e analisou relações entre este órgão e o Partido Comunista do Brasil (PCB). Esta pesquisa foi realizada através do estudo dos textos da revista La Correspondencia Sudamericana, a revista oficial do SSA, publicada entre 1926 e 1930. A partir deste estudo foram identificadas as concepções do SSA no que tange às atividades parlamentar, sindical, de propaganda e agitação revolucionárias, e em relação à tática da frente única proletária. Analisou-se a dominação exercida pelo SSA em relação ao PCB, assim como a reformulação e radicalização que perpassara este órgão entre 1928 e 1930. Investigou-se a crise do SSA que se ligara, diretamente, à crise do Partido Comunista da Argentina (1927) e à atuação do então editor da revista La Correspondencia Sudamericana e vereador de Buenos Aires, Fernando José Penelón. Analisou-se ainda as leituras realizadas pelos comunistas brasileiros acerca da realidade nacional, as questões que envolveram a aprovação da Lei Celerada, que pôs o PCB na ilegalidade em meados de 1927, a tentativa do partido de entabular uma aproximação com a pequena-burguesia radicalizada, a atuação eleitoral e parlamentar do BOC, e as superposições entre este organismo e o PCB. Investigou-se ainda o processo de assimilação por parte dos comunistas brasileiros da linha política radicalizada da IC, e a expectativa da IC e do PCB frente ao vislumbre da revolução democrático burguesa no Brasil no final dos anos 1920, a qual fornecera, internamente, uma lógica para a emergência do obreirismo no PCB.