An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Coastal and Human Settlements and Health Sectors in Guyana

This report analyses the agriculture, coastal and human settlements and health sectors in Guyana to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Guyana. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help bring the Caribbean sub-region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining national and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (agriculture and health sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on three leading sub-sectors namely: sugar-cane, rice-paddy and fisheries. In estimating costs, the sugar sub-sector is projected to experience losses under A2 between US$ 144 million (at 4% discount rate) and US$300 million (1% rate); comparative statistics for rice are US$795 million and US$1577 million, respectively; while for fisheries, the results show that losses range from US$15 million (4% rate) and US$34 million (1% rate). In general, under the B2 scenarios, there are gains for sugar up to 2030 under all three discount rates while for rice the performance is somewhat better with gains realized under all three discount rates up to 2040. For fisheries, gains are forecasted under all three rates up to 2050, following marginal losses to 2020. In terms of the benefit-cost analysis conducted on selected adaptation measures under the A2 scenario, there were net benefits for all three commodities under all three discount rates. For the sugar-cane sub-sector these are: drainage and irrigation upgrade, purchase of new machinery for planting and harvesting, developing and replanting climate tolerant sugar-cane. The rice-paddy sub-sector will benefit from adaptive strategies, which include maintenance of drainage and irrigation systems, research and development, as well as education and training. Adaptation in the fisheries sub-sector must include measures such as, mangrove development and restoration and public education. The analysis of the coastal and human settlements sector has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create catastrophic conditions in Guyana. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas.

Causes and consequences of low rates of specialisation in science and technology in CDCC member countries

The importance of science and technology (S&T) in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is clearly articulated in Chapter XI, paragraphs 57, 58, 61 and 62 of the Mauritius Strategy for the Further Implementation of the Programme of Action for Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States (MSI). At the regional level, the Heads of Government of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) noted the challenge that CARICOM member States face in competing in this new international economic environment in which the impact of scientific and technological change has created a knowledge-based global economy. Given the importance of S&T to development of Caribbean SIDS, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean embarked on a study to determine the causes and consequences of low rates of specialisation in S&T with a view to making recommendations for development of strategies for addressing these challenges. Data on postgraduate (Master of Science, Master of Philosophy and Doctor of Philosophy) enrolment and graduation in agriculture, engineering and the sciences from the three campuses of the University of the West Indies (UWI) as well as from the University of Technology in Jamaica and the University of Trinidad and Tobago (UTT) were examined and analysed. Face-to-face interviews were also held with key personnel from these institutions and a questionnaire was also served to individuals in key institutions. Results of the study revealed that although the number of students enrolled in higher degree programmes has increased in absolute terms, they are decreasing in relative terms. However, enrolment in agriculture has indeed declined while enrolment rates in engineering, although increasing, were not significantly high. Market forces have proved to be a main reason for this trend while facilities for the conduct and supervision of cutting-edge research, the disconnect between science and industry and societal labelling of scientists as “misfits” are also contributing to the situation. This has resulted in a reduced desire by students at all levels of the school system and faculty to be involved in S&T; lack of innovation; a better staffed private, as compared with public, sector; and poor remuneration in science-based employment. There also appears to be a gender bias in enrolment with more males than females being enrolled in engineering while the opposite is apparent in agriculture and the sciences. Recommendations for remedying this situation range from increasing investment in S&T, creating linkages between science and industry as well as with the international community, raising awareness of the value of S&T at all levels of the education system to informing policy to stimulate the science – innovation interface so as to promote intellectual property rights.

A participação da sociedade civil organizada na gestão do patrimônio cultural de Ribeirão Preto: o CONPPAC/RP

Pós-graduação em Serviço Social - FCHS

Latin America and the Caribbean: looking ahead after the Millennium Development Goals: Regional monitoring report on the Millennium Development Goals in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2015

Foreword by Alicia Bárcena

Desarrollo social inclusivo: una nueva generación de políticas para superar la pobreza y reducir la desigualdad en América Latina y el Caribe

Prólogo de Alicia Bárcena

Agenda 2030 y los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible: una oportunidad para América Latina y el Caribe

La Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible, aprobada en septiembre de 2015 por la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas, establece una visión transformadora hacia la sostenibilidad económica, social y ambiental de los 193 Estados Miembros que la suscribieron y será la guía de referencia para el trabajo de la institución en pos de esta visión durante los próximos 15 años. Esta nueva hoja de ruta presenta una oportunidad histórica para América Latina y el Caribe, ya que incluye temas altamente prioritarios para la región, como la reducción de la desigualdad en todas sus dimensiones, un crecimiento económico inclusivo con trabajo decente para todos, ciudades sostenibles y cambio climático, entre otros. El conocimiento de los 17 Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) asociados a esta Agenda ayuda a evaluar el punto de partida de los países de la región y a analizar y formular los medios para alcanzar esta nueva visión del desarrollo sostenible, que se expresó de manera colectiva y quedó plasmada en la Agenda 2030. Los ODS también son una herramienta de planificación para los países, tanto a nivel nacional como local. Gracias a su visión a largo plazo, constituirán un apoyo para cada país en su senda hacia un desarrollo sostenido, inclusivo y en armonía con el medio ambiente, a través de políticas públicas e instrumentos de presupuesto, monitoreo y evaluación. La Agenda 2030 es una agenda civilizatoria, que pone la dignidad y la igualdad de las personas en el centro. Al ser ambiciosa y visionaria, requiere de la participación de todos los sectores de la sociedad y del Estado para su implementación. Por lo tanto, se invita a los representantes de los Gobiernos, la sociedad civil, el ámbito académico y el sector privado a apropiarse de esta ambiciosa agenda, a debatirla y a utilizarla como una herramienta para la creación de sociedades inclusivas y justas, al servicio de las personas de hoy y de futuras generaciones.

Educação rural e desenvolvimento local sustentável: a lógica subjacente das relações inter-setoriais

Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar os modelos de educação gerados nos processos de ocupação da terra nos municípios Juazeiro, Uauá e Valente no Estado da Bahia, tanto nas áreas irrigadas quanto nas de sequeiro, tendo como hipótese norteadora a educação rural como mecanismo disseminador de informações à população e grande mobilizadora das transformações social, econômica, política e cultural das comunidades, na promoção do seu desenvolvimento sustentável. A metodologia da pesquisa tomou por base a análise das redes de relações sociais engendradas no processo, elegendo-se como categorias preferências para a compreensão do fenômeno estudado o capital social, o desenvolvimento local, pedagogias alternativas, currículo escolar e as parcerias intersetoriais, através da ruptura com o antagonismo dos conceitos de indivíduo e de sociedade. Trata-se de pesquisa quanti-qualitativa fundamentada numa abordagem de caráter interativo, onde o discurso emerge como espaço de negociação do sentido e da construção dos sujeitos aprendizes, cujos subsídios somados às evidências quantitativas permitiram o aprofundamento da complexidade dos fenômenos, suas contradições e seu relacionamento com o contexto. A análise dos dados permitiu compreender que a Educação Rural nas áreas pesquisadas vive duas situações: uma, veiculada pelo sistema público de ensino que, salvo algumas experiências pontuais, não atende aos interesses dos povos que habitam e trabalham no campo. Outra, exercitada por Organizações Não Governamentais que valorizando o rural como espaço de vida, forma indivíduos com um repertório de saberes, habilidades e valores capaz de mobilizá-los para uma ação transformadora.