Towards sustainable Iron- and steelmaking with economic optimization

The iron and steelmaking industry is among the major contributors to the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide in the world. The rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and the global concern about the greenhouse effect and climate change have brought about considerable investigations on how to reduce the energy intensity and CO2 emissions of this industrial sector. In this thesis the problem is tackled by mathematical modeling and optimization using three different approaches. The possibility to use biomass in the integrated steel plant, particularly as an auxiliary reductant in the blast furnace, is investigated. By pre-processing the biomass its heating value and carbon content can be increased at the same time as the oxygen content is decreased. As the compression strength of the preprocessed biomass is lower than that of coke, it is not suitable for replacing a major part of the coke in the blast furnace burden. Therefore the biomass is assumed to be injected at the tuyere level of the blast furnace. Carbon capture and storage is, nowadays, mostly associated with power plants but it can also be used to reduce the CO2 emissions of an integrated steel plant. In the case of a blast furnace, the effect of CCS can be further increased by recycling the carbon dioxide stripped top gas back into the process. However, this affects the economy of the integrated steel plant, as the amount of top gases available, e.g., for power and heat production is decreased. High quality raw materials are a prerequisite for smooth blast furnace operation. High quality coal is especially needed to produce coke with sufficient properties to ensure proper gas permeability and smooth burden descent. Lower quality coals as well as natural gas, which some countries have in great volumes, can be utilized with various direct and smelting reduction processes. The DRI produced with a direct reduction process can be utilized as a feed material for blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The liquid hot metal from a smelting reduction process can in turn be used in basic oxygen furnace or electric arc furnace. The unit sizes and investment costs of an alternative ironmaking process are also lower than those of a blast furnace. In this study, the economy of an integrated steel plant is investigated by simulation and optimization. The studied system consists of linearly described unit processes from coke plant to steel making units, with a more detailed thermodynamical model of the blast furnace. The results from the blast furnace operation with biomass injection revealed the importance of proper pre-processing of the raw biomass as the composition of the biomass as well as the heating value and the yield are all affected by the pyrolysis temperature. As for recycling of CO2 stripped blast furnace top gas, substantial reductions in the emission rates are achieved if the stripped CO2 can be stored. However, the optimal recycling degree together with other operation conditions is heavily dependent on the cost structure of CO2 emissions and stripping/storage. The economical feasibility related to the use of DRI in the blast furnace depends on the price ratio between the DRI pellets and the BF pellets. The high amount of energy needed in the rotary hearth furnace to reduce the iron ore leads to increased CO2 emissions.

Multispecies weed competition and their economic threshold on the wheat crop

Two field experiments were conducted to evaluate the effects of multispecies weed competition on wheat grain yield and to determine their economic threshold on the crop. The experiments were conducted in 2002, on two sites in Iran: at the Agricultural Research Station on Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (E1) and on the fields of Shirvan's Agricultural College (E2). A 15 x 50 m area of a 15 ha wheat field in E1 and a 15 x 50 m area of a 28 ha wheat field in E2 were selected as experimental sites. These areas were managed like other parts of the fields, except for the use of herbicides. At the beginning of the shooting stage, 30 points were randomly selected by dropping a 50 x 50 cm square marker on each site. The weeds present in E1 were: Avena ludoviciana, Chenopodium album, Solanum nigrum, Stellaria holostea, Convolvulus spp., Fumaria spp., Sonchus spp., and Polygonum aviculare. In E2 the weeds were A. ludoviciana, Erysimum sp., P. aviculare, Rapistrum rugosum, C. album, Salsola kali, and Sonchus sp. The data obtained within the sampled squares were submitted to regression equations and weeds densities were calculated in terms of TCL (Total Competitive Load). The regression analysis model indicated that only A. ludoviciana, Convolvulus spp. and C. album, in E1; and A. ludoviciana, S. kali, and R. rugosum, in E2 had a significant effect on the wheat yield reduction. Weed economic thresholds were 5.23 TCL in E1 and 6.16 TCL in E2; which were equivalent to 5 plants m-2 of A. ludoviciana or 12 plants m-2 of Convolvulus spp. or 19 plants m-2 of C. album in E1; and 6 plants m-2 A. ludoviciana, 13 plants m-2 S. kali and 27 plants m-2 R. rugosum in E2. Simulations of economic weed thresholds using several wheat grain prices and weed control costs allowed a better comparison of the experiments, suggesting that a more competitive crop at location E1 than at E2 was the cause of a lower weed competitive ability at the first location.

Re-shaping the Resourcing: Recruitment in Social Media

Social media is very current topic in today’s society and organisations. In the times of economic challenges, companies are looking for efficient ways to resource workforce. In addition, there is competition of competent workforce in employment markets. Employer image plays important role in recruitment as people seek to organisations they find interesting and have a reputation as a good employer. This study concerns the discussion on utilising social media in recruitment and employer image in a corporate enterprise. I will find solutions how to utilize social media in recruitment, in which channels and methods that can be done and what these actions require from a company doing social recruitment. I bring up the discussion and challenges that relate to starting to take social media into use in an organization overall and in recruitment. The qualitative material has been gathered with interviews of eighteen persons and the material available about the topic in the enterprise intranet. According to the study, social media is seen both as an opportunity to reach large amount of people quickly and cost-efficiently, but then again it brings news aspects for controlling the employer image and communication towards the audience. Taking social media into use as part of recruiters and managers daily work requires both finding the right channels and attention to the internal communication culture and resourcing. Social recruitment requires a strategy and a proper plan to be able to work in a company. There are several social media channels that enable to reach people, but they don’t do the social recruitment alone.

Value of Information Logistics Integration in Digital Business Ecosystem

Digital business ecosystems (DBE) are becoming an increasingly popular concept for modelling and building distributed systems in heterogeneous, decentralized and open environments. Information- and communication technology (ICT) enabled business solutions have created an opportunity for automated business relations and transactions. The deployment of ICT in business-to-business (B2B) integration seeks to improve competitiveness by establishing real-time information and offering better information visibility to business ecosystem actors. The products, components and raw material flows in supply chains are traditionally studied in logistics research. In this study, we expand the research to cover the processes parallel to the service and information flows as information logistics integration. In this thesis, we show how better integration and automation of information flows enhance the speed of processes and, thus, provide cost savings and other benefits for organizations. Investments in DBE are intended to add value through business automation and are key decisions in building up information logistics integration. Business solutions that build on automation are important sources of value in networks that promote and support business relations and transactions. Value is created through improved productivity and effectiveness when new, more efficient collaboration methods are discovered and integrated into DBE. Organizations, business networks and collaborations, even with competitors, form DBE in which information logistics integration has a significant role as a value driver. However, traditional economic and computing theories do not focus on digital business ecosystems as a separate form of organization, and they do not provide conceptual frameworks that can be used to explore digital business ecosystems as value drivers—combined internal management and external coordination mechanisms for information logistics integration are not the current practice of a company’s strategic process. In this thesis, we have developed and tested a framework to explore the digital business ecosystems developed and a coordination model for digital business ecosystem integration; moreover, we have analysed the value of information logistics integration. The research is based on a case study and on mixed methods, in which we use the Delphi method and Internetbased tools for idea generation and development. We conducted many interviews with key experts, which we recoded, transcribed and coded to find success factors. Qualitative analyses were based on a Monte Carlo simulation, which sought cost savings, and Real Option Valuation, which sought an optimal investment program for the ecosystem level. This study provides valuable knowledge regarding information logistics integration by utilizing a suitable business process information model for collaboration. An information model is based on the business process scenarios and on detailed transactions for the mapping and automation of product, service and information flows. The research results illustrate the current cap of understanding information logistics integration in a digital business ecosystem. Based on success factors, we were able to illustrate how specific coordination mechanisms related to network management and orchestration could be designed. We also pointed out the potential of information logistics integration in value creation. With the help of global standardization experts, we utilized the design of the core information model for B2B integration. We built this quantitative analysis by using the Monte Carlo-based simulation model and the Real Option Value model. This research covers relevant new research disciplines, such as information logistics integration and digital business ecosystems, in which the current literature needs to be improved. This research was executed by high-level experts and managers responsible for global business network B2B integration. However, the research was dominated by one industry domain, and therefore a more comprehensive exploration should be undertaken to cover a larger population of business sectors. Based on this research, the new quantitative survey could provide new possibilities to examine information logistics integration in digital business ecosystems. The value activities indicate that further studies should continue, especially with regard to the collaboration issues on integration, focusing on a user-centric approach. We should better understand how real-time information supports customer value creation by imbedding the information into the lifetime value of products and services. The aim of this research was to build competitive advantage through B2B integration to support a real-time economy. For practitioners, this research created several tools and concepts to improve value activities, information logistics integration design and management and orchestration models. Based on the results, the companies were able to better understand the formulation of the digital business ecosystem and the importance of joint efforts in collaboration. However, the challenge of incorporating this new knowledge into strategic processes in a multi-stakeholder environment remains. This challenge has been noted, and new projects have been established in pursuit of a real-time economy.

Evaluating land-use related environmental impacts of biomass value chains for decision-support : Comparison and testing of methodologies proposed for environmental life cycle assessment

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is one of the most established quantitative tools for environmental impact assessment of products. To be able to provide support to environmentally-aware decision makers on environmental impacts of biomass value-chains, the scope of LCA methodology needs to be augmented to cover landuse related environmental impacts. This dissertation focuses on analysing and discussing potential impact assessment methods, conceptual models and environmental indicators that have been proposed to be implemented into the LCA framework for impacts of land use. The applicability of proposed indicators and impact assessment frameworks is tested from practitioners' perspective, especially focusing on forest biomass value chains. The impacts of land use on biodiversity, resource depletion, climate change and other ecosystem services is analysed and discussed and the interplay in between value choices in LCA modelling and the decision-making situations to be supported is critically discussed. It was found out that land use impact indicators are necessary in LCA in highlighting differences in impacts from distinct land use classes. However, many open questions remain on certainty of highlighting actual impacts of land use, especially regarding impacts of managed forest land use on biodiversity and ecosystem services such as water regulation and purification. The climate impact of energy use of boreal stemwood was found to be higher in the short term and lower in the long-term in comparison with fossil fuels that emit identical amount of CO2 in combustion, due to changes implied to forest C stocks. The climate impacts of energy use of boreal stemwood were found to be higher than the previous estimates suggest on forest residues and stumps. The product lifetime was found to have much higher influence on the climate impacts of woodbased value chains than the origin of stemwood either from thinnings or final fellings. Climate neutrality seems to be likely only in the case when almost all the carbon of harvested wood is stored in long-lived wooden products. In the current form, the land use impacts cannot be modelled with a high degree of certainty nor communicated with adequate level of clarity to decision makers. The academia needs to keep on improving the modelling framework, and more importantly, clearly communicate to decision-makers the limited certainty on whether land-use intensive activities can help in meeting the strict mitigation targets we are globally facing.

Adaptive Dynamics of Resource Specialization

Ecological specialization in resource utilization has various facades ranging from nutritional resources via host use of parasites or phytophagous insects to local adaptation in different habitats. Therefore, the evolution of specialization affects the evolution of most other traits, which makes it one of the core issues in the theory of evolution. Hence, the evolution of specialization has gained enormous amounts of research interest, starting already from Darwin’s Origin of species in 1859. Vast majority of the theoretical studies has, however, focused on the mathematically most simple case with well-mixed populations and equilibrium dynamics. This thesis explores the possibilities to extend the evolutionary analysis of resource usage to spatially heterogeneous metapopulation models and to models with non-equilibrium dynamics. These extensions are enabled by the recent advances in the field of adaptive dynamics, which allows for a mechanistic derivation of the invasion-fitness function based on the ecological dynamics. In the evolutionary analyses, special focus is set to the case with two substitutable renewable resources. In this case, the most striking questions are, whether a generalist species is able to coexist with the two specialist species, and can such trimorphic coexistence be attained through natural selection starting from a monomorphic population. This is shown possible both due to spatial heterogeneity and due to non-equilibrium dynamics. In addition, it is shown that chaotic dynamics may sometimes inflict evolutionary suicide or cyclic evolutionary dynamics. Moreover, the relations between various ecological parameters and evolutionary dynamics are investigated. Especially, the relation between specialization and dispersal propensity turns out to be counter-intuitively non-monotonous. This observation served as inspiration to the analysis of joint evolution of dispersal and specialization, which may provide the most natural explanation to the observed coexistence of specialist and generalist species.

Reinventing the third way : towards new forms of economic and democratic conduct

Avhandlingen studerar samspelet mellan det politiska och det ekonomiska systemet genom det föregående seklet, med speciellt fokus på den nyliberala omdaning som utspelats de senaste tre årtiondena. Med en liberaliserad ekonomi och en individualiserad människa måste också det politiska systemet utformas på ett annat sätt. Gradvisa förändringar har varit synliga, som den växande nätverksorganiseringen, dvs. att olika typer av utvecklingspolitik allt mer genomförs som ett samspel mellan samhällssektorerna, istället för att enbart utföras av den offentliga sektorn som tidigare. Genom fyra fallstudier i Österbotten demonstreras hur arenor för samverkan kan konstrueras i enlighet med vad den aktuella frågan kräver. Ett exempel är det innovationsnätverk som skapats i Karleby-Jakobstad-regionen, där offentliga och privata intressenter deltar, och som samtidigt bryter traditionella administrativa gränser. Ett annat mer negativt exempel är omstruktureringsprocessen i Kaskö-regionen eft er Metsä-Botnia-fabrikens nedläggning, där småkommunproblemet tillsammans med att den privata intressenten inte haft skyldighet att samverka lett till att en tillräckligt regionalt förankrad arena för en långsiktig utvecklingspolitik inte har kunnat skapas. Det här visar på trögheten i det finska systemet, där en stark enhetsstat och en splittrad kommunal nivå ur ett historiskt perspektiv hindrat flexibla anpassningar till samhällsförändringar. Avhandlingen visar att nätverksorganiseringen bör vara en integrerad del av de representativa strukturerna för att kunna påverka processernas utfall. Avhandlingen visar framförallt att deltagande och funktionellt definierade regionala och lokala arenor har stor potential, både ekonomiskt och demokratiskt. Det handlar om att skapa en kultur med aktiverade och engagerade medborgare, vilket står i kontrast till det allt mer passiverande representativa systemet. ---------------------------------------- Väitöskirja tutkii viime vuosisadan poliittisen ja taloudellisen järjestelmän vuorovaikutusta keskittyen erityisesti kolmen viimeisen vuosikymmenen uusliberaaliseen muutokseen. Talouden liberalisoituminen ja ihmisen individualisoituminen edellyttävät myös poliittisen järjestelmän mukautumista. Asteittaisia muutoksia on ollut havaittavissa, kuten kasvava verkosto-organisaatio, toisin sanoen eri alojen kehityspolitiikkaa toteutetaan yhä enemmän eri yhteiskuntasektoreiden vuorovaikutuksena, kun aikaisemmin ainoastaan julkinen sektori vastasi kehityspolitiikan toteuttamisesta. Pohjanmaan maakunnan neljän tapaustutkimuksen avulla osoitetaan, miten vuorovaikutusareena voidaan rakentaa kulloinkin ajankohtaisen asiakokonaisuuden ympärille. Tästä esimerkkinä on Kokkola-Pietarsaari –alueen innovaatioverkosto, johon osallistuvat sekä julkiset että yksityiset sidosryhmät ja joka samalla rikkoo perinteisiä hallinnollisia rajoja. Toinen, kielteisempi esimerkki on Kaskisten alueen rakennemu utosprosessi Metsä-Botnian tehtaan sulkemisen jälkeen. Siellä pienkuntaongelma yhdistettynä siihen, että yksityinen sidosryhmä ei ole ollut velvollinen tekemään yhteistyötä, on johtanut siihen, että ei ole kyetty luomaan alueen pitkäaikaiseen kehittämiseen sitoutunutta vuorovaikutusareenaa. Tämä osoittaa suomalaisen järjestelmän kankeuden, jossa historiallisesta näkökulmasta vahva yhtenäinen valtio ja hajanainen kuntataso estävät joustavan yhteiskuntamuutoksiin sopeutumisen. Väitöskirja osoittaa, että verkosto-organisaation on oltava yhteiskunnassa vaikuttaviin rakenteisiin integroitu osa, jotta se voi vaikuttaa prosessien tuloksiin. Väitöskirja osoittaa ennen kaikkea, että osallistuvilla ja toiminnallisesti määritellyillä alueellisilla ja paikallisilla areenoilla on suuri taloudellinen ja demokraattinen potentiaali. Passivoivan edustavan järjestelmän tilalle on luotava aktiivisten ja tavoitteisiin sitoutuneiden kansalaisten vuorovaikutusjärjestelmä.

Intensification of hemicellulose hot-water extraction from spruce wood by parameter tuning

The growing population on earth along with diminishing fossil deposits and the climate change debate calls out for a better utilization of renewable, bio-based materials. In a biorefinery perspective, the renewable biomass is converted into many different products such as fuels, chemicals, and materials, quite similar to the petroleum refinery industry. Since forests cover about one third of the land surface on earth, ligno-cellulosic biomass is the most abundant renewable resource available. The natural first step in a biorefinery is separation and isolation of the different compounds the biomass is comprised of. The major components in wood are cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin, all of which can be made into various end-products. Today, focus normally lies on utilizing only one component, e.g., the cellulose in the Kraft pulping process. It would be highly desirable to utilize all the different compounds, both from an economical and environmental point of view. The separation process should therefore be optimized. Hemicelluloses can partly be extracted with hot-water prior to pulping. Depending in the severity of the extraction, the hemicelluloses are degraded to various degrees. In order to be able to choose from a variety of different end-products, the hemicelluloses should be as intact as possible after the extraction. The main focus of this work has been on preserving the hemicellulose molar mass throughout the extraction at a high yield by actively controlling the extraction pH at the high temperatures used. Since it has not been possible to measure pH during an extraction due to the high temperatures, the extraction pH has remained a “black box”. Therefore, a high-temperature in-line pH measuring system was developed, validated, and tested for hot-water wood extractions. One crucial step in the measurements is calibration, therefore extensive efforts was put on developing a reliable calibration procedure. Initial extractions with wood showed that the actual extraction pH was ~0.35 pH units higher than previously believed. The measuring system was also equipped with a controller connected to a pump. With this addition it was possible to control the extraction to any desired pH set point. When the pH dropped below the set point, the controller started pumping in alkali and by that the desired set point was maintained very accurately. Analyses of the extracted hemicelluloses showed that less hemicelluloses were extracted at higher pH but with a higher molar-mass. Monomer formation could, at a certain pH level, be completely inhibited. Increasing the temperature, but maintaining a specific pH set point, would speed up the extraction without degrading the molar-mass of the hemicelluloses and thereby intensifying the extraction. The diffusion of the dissolved hemicelluloses from the wood particle is a major part of the extraction process. Therefore, a particle size study ranging from 0.5 mm wood particles to industrial size wood chips was conducted to investigate the internal mass transfer of the hemicelluloses. Unsurprisingly, it showed that hemicelluloses were extracted faster from smaller wood particles than larger although it did not seem to have a substantial effect on the average molar mass of the extracted hemicelluloses. However, smaller particle sizes require more energy to manufacture and thus increases the economic cost. Since bark comprises 10 – 15 % of a tree, it is important to also consider it in a biorefinery concept. Spruce inner and outer bark was hot-water extracted separately to investigate the possibility to isolate the bark hemicelluloses. It was showed that the bark hemicelluloses comprised mostly of pectic material and differed considerably from the wood hemicelluloses. The bark hemicelluloses, or pectins, could be extracted at lower temperatures than the wood hemicelluloses. A chemical characterization, done separately on inner and outer bark, showed that inner bark contained over 10 % stilbene glucosides that could be extracted already at 100 °C with aqueous acetone.

Promoting Growth in the Use of Bioenergy in Europe by Converting Existing Coal-Fired Power Plants to Biomass

Repowering existing power plants by replacing coal with biomass might offer an interesting option to ease the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and promote a fur-ther expansion of bioenergy in Europe, on account of the potential to decrease greenhouse gas emissions, as well as other pollutants (SOx, NOx, etcetera). In addition, a great part of the appeal of repowering projects comes from the opportunity to reuse the vast existing invest-ment and infrastructure associated with coal-based power generation. Even so, only a limited number of experiences with repowering are found. Therefore, efforts are required to produce technical and scientific evidence to determine whether said technology might be considered feasible for its adoption within European conditions. A detailed evaluation of the technical and economic aspects of this technology constitutes a powerful tool for decision makers to define the energy future for Europe. To better illustrate this concept, a case study is analyzed. A Slovakian pulverized coal plant was used as the basis for determining the effects on perfor-mance, operation, maintenance and cost when fuel is shifted to biomass. It was found that biomass fuel properties play a crucial role in plant repowering. Furthermore, results demon-strate that this technology offers renewable energy with low pollutant emissions at the cost of reduced capacity, relatively high levelized cost of electricity and sometimes, a maintenance-intensive operation. Lastly, regardless of the fact that existing equipment can be reutilized for the most part, extensive additions/modifications may be required to ensure a safe operation and an acceptable performance.

Deinking sludge utilization possibilities: technical, economic, and environmental assessments

This report introduces the ENPI project called “EMIR - Exploitation of Municipal and Industrial Residues” which was executed in a co-operation between Lappeenranta University of Technology (LUT), Saint Petersburg State University of Economics (SPbSUE), Saint Petersburg State Technical University of Plant Polymers (SPbSTUPP) and industrial partners from both Leningrad Region (LR), Russia and Finland. The main targets of the research were to identify the possibilities for deinking sludge management scenarios in co-operation with partner companies, to compare the sustainability of the alternatives, and to provide recommendations for the companies in the Leningrad Region on how to best manage deinking sludge. During the literature review, 24 deinking sludge utilization possibilities were identified, the majority falling under material recovery. Furthermore, 11 potential utilizers of deinking sludge were found within the search area determined by the transportation cost. Each potential utilizer was directly contacted in order to establish cooperation for deinking sludge utilization. Finally, four companies, namely, “Finnsementti” – a cement plant in Finland (S1), “St.Gobian Weber” – a light-weight aggregate plant in Finland (S2), “LSR-Cement” – a cement plant in LR (S3), and “Rockwool” – a stone wool plant in LR (S4) were seen as the most promising partners and were included in the economic and environmental assessments. Economic assessment using cost-benefit analysis (CBA) indicated that substitution of heavy fuel oil with dry deinking sludge in S2 was the most feasible option with a benefit/cost ratio (BCR) of 3.6 when all the sludge was utilized. At the same time, the use of 15% of the total sludge amount (the amount that could potentially be treated in the scenario) resulted in a BCR of only 0.16. The use of dry deinking sludge in the production of cement (S3) is a slightly more feasible option with a BCR of 1.1. The use of sludge in stone wool production is feasible only when all the deinking sludge is used and burned in an existing incineration plant. The least economically feasible utilization possibility is the use of sludge in cement production in Finland (S1) due to the high gate fee charged. Environmental assessment was performed applying internationally recognized life cycle assessment (LCA) methodologies: ISO 14040 and ISO 14044. The results of a consequential LCA stated that only S1 and S2 lead to a reduction of all environmental impacts within the impact categories chosen compared to the baseline scenario where deinking sludge is landfilled. Considering S1, the largest reduction of 13% was achieved for the global warming potential (GWP), whereas for S2, the largest decrease of abiotic depletion potential (ADP) was by 1.7%, the eutrophication potential (EP) by 1.8%, and a GWP of 2.1% was documented. In S3, the most notable increase of ADP and acidification potential (AP) by 2.6 and 1.5% was indicated, while the GWP was reduced by 12%, the largest out of all the impact categories. In S4, ADP and AP increased by 2.3 and 2.1% respectively, whereas ODP was reduced by 25%. During LCA, it was noticed that substitution of fuels causes a greater reduction of environmental impact (S1 and S2) than substitution of raw materials (S3 and S4). Despite a number of economically and environmentally acceptable deinking sludge utilization methods being assessed in the research, evaluation of bottlenecks and communications with companies’ representatives uncovered the fact that the availability of the raw materials consumed, and the risks associated with technological problems resulting from the sludge utilization, limited the willingness of industrial partners to start deinking sludge utilization. The research results are of high value for decision-makers at already existing paper mills since the result provide insights regarding alternatives to the deinking sludge utilization possibilities already applied. Thus, the research results support the maximum economic and environmental value recovery from waste paper utilization.

Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Economic capital allocation

For my Licentiate thesis, I conducted research on risk measures. Continuing with this research, I now focus on capital allocation. In the proportional capital allocation principle, the choice of risk measure plays a very important part. In the chapters Introduction and Basic concepts, we introduce three definitions of economic capital, discuss the purpose of capital allocation, give different viewpoints of capital allocation and present an overview of relevant literature. Risk measures are defined and the concept of coherent risk measure is introduced. Examples of important risk measures are given, e. g., Value at Risk (VaR), Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). We also discuss the implications of dependence and review some important distributions. In the following chapter on Capital allocation we introduce different principles for allocating capital. We prefer to work with the proportional allocation method. In the following chapter, Capital allocation based on tails, we focus on insurance business lines with heavy-tailed loss distribution. To emphasize capital allocation based on tails, we define the following risk measures: Conditional Expectation, Upper Tail Covariance and Tail Covariance Premium Adjusted (TCPA). In the final chapter, called Illustrative case study, we simulate two sets of data with five insurance business lines using Normal copulas and Cauchy copulas. The proportional capital allocation is calculated using TCPA as risk measure. It is compared with the result when VaR is used as risk measure and with covariance capital allocation. In this thesis, it is emphasized that no single allocation principle is perfect for all purposes. When focusing on the tail of losses, the allocation based on TCPA is a good one, since TCPA in a sense includes features of TVaR and Tail covariance.

Performance Degradation Modelling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Lithium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Systems

Transmission system operators and distribution system operators are experiencing new challenges in terms of reliability, power quality, and cost efficiency. Although the potential of energy storages to face those challenges is recognized, the economic implications are still obscure, which introduce the risk into the business models. This thesis aims to investigate the technical and economic value indicators of lithium-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) in grid-scale applications. In order to do that, a comprehensive performance lithium-ion BESS model with degradation effects estimation is developed. The model development process implies literature review on lifetime modelling, use, and modification of previous study progress, building the additional system parts and integrating it into a complete tool. The constructed model is capable of describing the dynamic behavior of the BESS voltage, state of charge, temperature and capacity loss. Five control strategies for BESS unit providing primary frequency regulation are implemented, in addition to the model. The questions related to BESS dimensioning and the end of life (EoL) criterion are addressed. Simulations are performed with one-month real frequency data acquired from Fingrid. The lifetime and cost-benefit analysis of the simulation results allow to compare and determine the preferable control strategy. Finally, the study performs the sensitivity analysis of economic profitability with variable size, EoL and system price. The research reports that BESS can be profitable in certain cases and presents the recommendations.

Manpower development and nation-building : Singapore's experience

Manpower is a basic resource. It is the indispensable means of converting other resources to mankind '.s use and benefit. As a process· of increasing the knowledge, skills, and dexterity of the people of a society, manpower development is the most fundamental means of enabling a nation to acquire the capacities to bring about its desired future state of affairs -- a more mighty and wealthier nation. Singapore's brief nation-building history justifies the emphasis accorded to the importance of good quality human resources and manpower development in economic and socio-political developments. As a tiny island-state with a poor natural resource base, Singapore's long-term survival and development depend ultimately upon the quality and the creative energy of her people. In line with the nation-building goals and strategies of the Republic, as conditioned by her objective setting, Singapore's basic manpower development premise has been one of "quality and not quantity". While implementing the "stop-at-two" family planning and population control programs and the relevant immigration measures to guard against the prospect of a "population explosion", the Government has energetically fostered various educational programs, including vocational training schemes, adult education programs, the youth movement, and the national service scheme to improve the quality of Singaporeans. There is no denying that some of the manpower development measures taken by the Government have imposed sacrifice and hardship on the Singapore citizens. Nevertheless, they are the basic conditions for the island-Republic's long-term survival and development. It is essential iii to note that Singapore's continuing existence and phenomenal-success are largely attributable to the will, capacities and efforts of her leaders and people. In the final analysis, the wealth and the strength of a nation are based upon its ability to conserve, develop and utilize effectively the innate capacities of its people. This is true not only of Singapore but necessarily of other developing nations. It can be safely presumed that since most developing states' concerns about the quality of their human resources and the progress of their nation-building work are inextricably bound to those about the quantity of their population, the "quality and not quantity" motto of Singapore's manpower development programs can also be their guiding principle.

Strategies for economic development in the Commonwealth Caribbean: a comparative study of the foreign economic policy strategies adopted by the Manley government in Jamaica and the Williams government in Trinidad and Tobago

This thesis compares the foreign economic poUcy dimension of the development strategies adopted by the governments of two Commonwealth caribbean countries: The Hardey government In Jamaica, and the· Williams government in Trlnidad and T ooago, The foreign economic policIes adopted by these governments appeared, on the surface~ to be markedly dissimilar. The Jamakan strategv on the one hand, emphasised self-reliance and national autonomy; and featured the espousal of radical oonaHgnment together with attempts to re-deftne the terms of the Islands externaa economIc relaUoos. The Trinidadian strategy 00 the other hand, featured Uberal externaUy-oriented growth poUctes, and close relatjoos with Western governments and financial institutions. Th1s study attempts to identify the explanatory factors that account for the apparent dlssimUarUy 1n the foreign economic policies of these two govemnents. The study is based on a comparison of how the structural bases of an underdeveloped ecooomYg and the foreign penetration and vulnerabUUy to external pressures asSOCiated wUh dependence, shape and influence foreign economic poUcy strategy. The framework views fore1gn ecooom1c strategy as an adaptive response on the part of the decision makers of a state to the coostralnts and opportunities provided by a particular situation. The · situat i 00' in this case being the events, conditions, structures and processes, associated wUh dependente and underdevelopment. The results indicate that the similarities and dissimHarities in the foreign economic policies of the governments of Jamaica and Trinidad were a reflecUon of the simHarities and dissimilarities in their respective situations. The conclusion derived suggests that If the foreign pol1cy field as an arena of choice, Is indeed one of opportunities and constraints for each and every state, then poHcy makers of smaU, weak, hlghW penetrated and vulnerable states enter thlS arena with constraints outweighing opportunities. This places effective limits 00 their decisional latitude and the range of policy options avaUable. Policy makers thus have to decide critical issues with few estabUshed precedents, in the face of domestic social and political cleavages, as wen as serious foreign pressures. This is a reflection not only of the trappings of dependence, but also of the Umned capabilities arising from the sman size of the state, and the Impact of the resource-gap In an underdeveloped economy. The Trinidadian strategy 1s UlustraUve of a development strategy made viable through a combination of a fortuitous circumstance, a confluence of the interests of influential groups» and accurate perception on the part of poUcy makers. These factors enabled policy makers to minimise some of the constraints of dependence. The faUure of Manlets strategy on the other hand, 15 iHustraUve of the problems involved tn the adoption of poUcles that work against the interest of internal and external political and economic forces. It is also tUustraUve of the consequences of the faUure 00 the part of policy makers to clarify goals, and to reconcile the values of rapid economic growth with increased self-reliance and national autonomy. These values tend to be mutuany Incompatible given the existing patterns of relations in the jnternational economy.