Global LAI uncertainty and relative uncertainty datasets derived from a Triple Collocation Error Model (TCEM)

Uncertainty information for global leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global modeling studies but usually difficult to systematically obtain at a global scale. Here, we present a new method that cross-validates existing global LAI products and produces consistent uncertainty information. The method is based on a triple collocation error model (TCEM) that assumes errors among LAI products are not correlated. Global monthly absolute and relative uncertainties, in 0.05° spatial resolutions, were generated for MODIS, CYCLOPES, and GLOBCARBON LAI products, with reasonable agreement in terms of spatial patterns and biome types. CYCLOPES shows the lowest absolute and relative uncertainties, followed by GLOBCARBON and MODIS. Grasses, crops, shrubs, and savannas usually have lower uncertainties than forests in association with the relatively larger forest LAI. With their densely vegetated canopies, tropical regions exhibit the highest absolute uncertainties but the lowest relative uncertainties, the latter of which tend to increase with higher latitudes. The estimated uncertainties of CYCLOPES generally meet the quality requirements (± 0.5) proposed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), whereas for MODIS and GLOBCARBON only non-forest biome types have met the requirement. Nevertheless, none of the products seems to be within a relative uncertainty requirements of 20%. Further independent validation and comparative studies are expected to provide a fair assessment of uncertainties derived from TCEM. Overall, the proposed TCEM is straightforward and could be automated for the systematic processing of real time remote sensing observations to provide theoretical uncertainty information for a wider range of land products.

Biomarker and radiogenic isotopes from sediment core POS362-2_33

The termination of the African Humid Period in northeastern Africa during the early Holocene was marked by the southward migration of the rain belt and the disappearance of the Green Sahara. This interval of drastic environmental changes was also marked by the initiation of food production by North African huntergatherer populations and thus provides critical information on human-environment relationships. However, existing records of regional climatic and environmental changes exhibit large differences in timing and modes of the wet/dry transition at the end of the African Humid Period. Here we present independent records of changes in river runoff, vegetation and erosion in the Nile River watershed during the Holocene obtained from a unique sedimentary sequence on the Nile River fan using organic and inorganic proxy data. This high-resolution reconstruction allows to examine the phase relationship between the changes of these three parameters and provides a detailed picture of the environmental conditions during the Paleolithic/Neolithic transition. The data show that river runoff decreased gradually during the wet/arid transition at the end of the AHP whereas rapid shifts of vegetation and erosion occurred earlier between 8.7 and about 6 ka BP. These asynchronous changes are compared to other regional records and provide new insights into the threshold responses of the environment to climatic changes. Our record demonstrates that the degradation of the environment in northeastern Africa was more abrupt and occurred earlier than previously thought and may have accelerated the process of domestication in order to secure sustainable food resources for the Neolithic African populations.