Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Dynamics of the cold-water event off the southeast coast of the United States in the summer of 2003

The cold-water event along the southeast coast of the United States in the summer of 2003 is studied using satellite data combined with in situ observations. The analysis suggests that the cooling is produced by wind-driven coastal upwelling, which breaks the thermocline barrier in the summer of 2003. The strong and persistent southwesterly winds in the summer of 2003 play an important role of lifting the bottom isotherms up to the surface and away from the coast, generating persistent surface cooling in July-August 2003. Once the thermocline barrier is broken, the stratification in the nearshore region is weakened substantially, allowing further coastal cooling of large magnitudes by episodic southerly wind bursts or passage of coastally trapped waves at periods of a few days. These short-period winds or waves would otherwise have no effects on the surface temperature because of the strong thermocline barrier in summer if not for the low-frequency cooling produced by the persistent southwesterly winds.

Dynamics of dimethylsulfide and dimethylsulfoniopropionate produced by phytoplankton in the Chinese seas - Distribution patterns and affecting factors

Distribution of dimethylsulfide (DMS) and/or particulate dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSPp) concentrations in the Jiaozhou Bay, Zhifu Bay and East China Sea were investigated during the period of 1994 - 1998. Both DMS and DMSPp levels showed remarkable temporal and spatial variations. High values occurred in the coastal or shelf waters and low values in the offshore waters. The highest levels were observed in spring or summer and lowest in autumn. DMS or DMSPp distribution patterns were associated with water mass on a large geographical scale, while biological and chemical factors were more likely influential on smaller-scale variations. Diatoms could play an important role in total DMS or DMSPp abundance in coastal waters. Nitrate was found to have a two-phase relationship with DMSPp concentrations: positive when nitrate concentration was lower than 1 mumol/L, and negative when it was above. Anthropogenic factors such as sewage input and aquaculture also showed influences on DMS or DMSPp concentration.

Community structure and seasonal dynamics of planktonic ciliates along salinity gradients

The ciliate community structure and seasonal dynamics in a solar saltern of the Yellow Sea were studied based oil 4 sampling dates and 8 stations with salinities from 27.7 parts per thousand to 311.0 parts per thousand. The effects of the type and concentration of the fixative used (Lugol's and Bouin's) were tested at the first sampling date. Fixative type and fixative concentration had significant effects on ciliate abundance and blovolume, with 1% Lugol's giving the best results. A detailed investigation using live observations and protargol staining techniques revealed a total of 98 morphospecies from 8 sampling stations. There was obvious seasonal variation in species composition at most of the stations, but this tended to be less distinct with increasing salinity, as the dominant ciliate group shifted from oligotrichs to heterotrichs. Ciliate abundance varied from 4.40 x 10(1) to 2.11 x 10(5) cells l(-1) and biomass ranged between 2.39 and 9.87 x 10(3) mu g Cl-1 (at a salinity of 147.6 parts per thousand). Both abundance and biomass decreased abruptly when salinity exceeded 100-150 parts per thousand. Statistical analyses Suggested that the dynamics of ciliate abundance and biomass were regulated by both salinity and by season, but those of diversity and species richness were mainly controlled by salinity and both significantly decreased with increasing salinity. (C) 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Status and dynamics of Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem on the Tibetan plateau

This paper provides information about the distribution, structure, and ecology of the world's largest alpine ecosystem, the Kobresia pygmaea pastures in the southeastern Tibetan plateau. The environmental importance of these Cyperaceae mats derives from the extremely firm turf, which protects large surfaces against erosion, including the headwaters of the Huang He, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween, and Brahmaputra. The emphasis of the present article is on the climate-driven evolution and recent dynamics of these mats under the grazing impact of small mammals and livestock. Considering pedological analyses, radiocarbon datings, and results from exclosure experiments, we hypothesize that the majority of K. pygmaea mats are human-induced and replace forests, scrub, and taller grasslands. At present, the carrying capacity is increasingly exceeded, and reinforced settlement of nomads threatens this ecosystem especially in its drier part, where small mammals become strong competitors with livestock and the removal of the turf is irreversible. Examples of rehabilitation measures are given.

Real-time investigation of the photodissociation dynamics of p-chlorotoluene and p-dichlorobenzene

De-excited dynamics of p-chlorotoluene and p-dichlorobenzene have been investigated by the femtosecond pump-probe method in a supersonic molecular beam. The yields of the parent ion and daughter ion are examined as a function of the delay time between the pump and probe laser pulses. The lifetime constants of excited p-chlorotoluene and p-dichlorobenzene are determined. Possible de-excitation mechanisms are suggested that the initially excited S-1 state is predissociative via the repulsive triplet state. The substituent effects of additional chlorine atom and methyl group are discussed. Moreover, for the first time, we observe a novel quantum beat oscillation in p-dichlorobenzene. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.