Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Risk of Cerebral Venous Thrombosis in Obese Women.

IMPORTANCE Obesity is a risk factor for deep vein thrombosis of the leg and pulmonary embolism. To date, however, whether obesity is associated with adult cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) has not been assessed. OBJECTIVE To assess whether obesity is a risk factor for CVT. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A case-control study was performed in consecutive adult patients with CVT admitted from July 1, 2006 (Amsterdam), and October 1, 2009 (Berne), through December 31, 2014, to the Academic Medical Center in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, or Inselspital University Hospital in Berne, Switzerland. The control group was composed of individuals from the control population of the Multiple Environmental and Genetic Assessment of Risk Factors for Venous Thrombosis study, which was a large Dutch case-control study performed from March 1, 1999, to September 31, 2004, and in which risk factors for deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism were assessed. Data analysis was performed from January 2 to July 12, 2015. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Obesity was determined by body mass index (BMI). A BMI of 30 or greater was considered to indicate obesity, and a BMI of 25 to 29.99 was considered to indicate overweight. A multiple imputation procedure was used for missing data. We adjusted for sex, age, history of cancer, ethnicity, smoking status, and oral contraceptive use. Individuals with normal weight (BMI <25) were the reference category. RESULTS The study included 186 cases and 6134 controls. Cases were younger (median age, 40 vs 48 years), more often female (133 [71.5%] vs 3220 [52.5%]), more often used oral contraceptives (97 [72.9%] vs 758 [23.5%] of women), and more frequently had a history of cancer (17 [9.1%] vs 235 [3.8%]) compared with controls. Obesity (BMI ≥30) was associated with an increased risk of CVT (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.63; 95% CI, 1.53-4.54). Stratification by sex revealed a strong association between CVT and obesity in women (adjusted OR, 3.50; 95% CI, 2.00-6.14) but not in men (adjusted OR, 1.16; 95% CI, 0.25-5.30). Further stratification revealed that, in women who used oral contraceptives, overweight and obesity were associated with an increased risk of CVT in a dose-dependent manner (BMI 25.0-29.9: adjusted OR, 11.87; 95% CI, 5.94-23.74; BMI ≥30: adjusted OR, 29.26; 95% CI, 13.47-63.60). No association was found in women who did not use oral contraceptives. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Obesity is a strong risk factor for CVT in women who use oral contraceptives.

1925 UM Football Team Reunion, 1975 Indiana game

[L-R: George Babcock, Sam Babcock, Bob Brown capt., Sid Dewey, Bill Flora, Ben Friedman, Fred fuller, Charles Grube, Louie Gilbert, George Hawkins, , Ben Oosterbaan (obscured), Fred Parker; Dutch Stamman, Wally Weber]

Monumens de l'histoire de France, en estampes et dessins ...

The present 30 volumes seem to have remained with the Dukes of Leuchtenberg, until the ducal library was acquired for sale in 1935 by the dealers Ulrich Hoepli (Milan) and Braus-Riggenbach (Basel). The volumes are not complete, as leaves have been wholly or partly removed throughout; this is particularly evident in preliminary volumes 2 and 10 and volume 75. Prints and the relatively small number of drawings are mostly French, with some German, Dutch and English, and are mostly of the 17th or 18th centuries. They are mounted generally on rectos of leaves, often with hand-written captions. Large prints are occasionally bound in directly; these are often folded. The engraved general title page (bearing the date 1788) appears at the beginning of each volume; below the printed title a hand-written volume number and brief title describing the volume's contents usually appear. In many volumes the title leaf is followed by a hand-written contents leaf listing the section titles, which are also written individually throughout the volume on leaves with etched decorative frames. Sections are numbered continuously throughout the work as a whole. Numbering of the leaves, when present, appears in black ink within each volume at top center recto. Printmakers include B. & J. Audran, Francesco Bartolozzi, Abraham Bosse, Stefano della Bella, Jacques Callot, François Chéreau, Wenceslaus Hollar, Romeyn de Hooghe, Raymond La Fage, Sébastien Le Clerc, Pierre Lepautre, Claude Mellan, Bernard Picart, and Simon Thomassin. There are also early color prints by Gautier-Dagoty and Jean-Baptiste Morret.

Les proportions du corps humain = De proportien van het menschlyk ligchaam /

Signatures: A-B⁴. (B4v blank)

The late years of Michel Angelo,

"Three hundred copies of this book on Dutch handmade paper privately printed by Frederic Fairchild Sherman."

Interaction of waves and currents /

This report presents an overview of wave-current interacion, including comprehensive review of references to significant U.S. and foreign literature available through December 1981. Specific topics under review are the effects of horizontally and vertically varying currents on waves, wave refraction by currents, dissipation and turbulence, small- and medium-scale currents, caustics and focusing, and wave breaking. The results of the review are then examined for engineering applications. The most appropriate general-purpose computer program to include wave-current interaction is the Dutch Rijkswaterstaat program CREDIZ, which is based on a parabolic wave equation. Further applications include wave and current forces on structures and possibly sediment transport. The report concludes with a brief state-of-the-art review of wave-current interaction and a list of topics needing further research and development.

Description de l'Hotel de ville d'Amsterdam : avec les explications de tous les emblêmes, figures, tableaux, statuës, &c. qui se trouvent au-dehors, & au-dedans de ce batiment.

Engraved plates have captions and page references in Dutch and French.

Algemeene ophelderende verklaring van het oud letterschrift : in steenplaatdruk /

Pages 8-66 provide explanations about the plates.

Five centuries of marine painting : twenty-third loan exhibition of old masters [at] the Detroit Institute of Arts, March 6 through April 5, 1942.

"The Flemish, Dutch, English, French and Italian sections of the catalogue were prepared by W.R. Valentiner; the American section by Francis W. Robinson."

The pirates of Panama; or, The buccaneers of America : a true account of the famous adventures and daring deeds of Sir Henry Morgan and other notorious freebooters of the Spanish Main /

"Originally written in Dutch ... and first published in Amsterdam in 1678 under the title of De Americaeneche [!] zee rovers ... The first English edition was printed in 1684 ... In arranging this edition, the original English text only has been used, and but few changes made ..." Introd.

Russian dance of death,

Diary of a teacher in Ukraine during the Russian revolution, relating mainly the tribulations of the Dutch settlers. cf. Introd.

School courses : principal subjects of the common primary course ... 1917.

Text in English and Dutch.

Leopold von Ranke's sa mmtliche Werke.

German, French, Italian or Dutch.

Ayer's American almanac : for the use of farmers, planters, mechanics, and all families ...

Issue for 1889 includes French, Spanish, Portuguese, Finnish, German, Dutch, Swedish, Norwegian-Danish, Bohemian, Welsh, and Italian sections.