The impact on the stationary state income of a pay-as-you-go system of social security

A model of overlapping generations in continuous time is composed. IndividuaIs pass through two distinct time periods during their life times. During the first period, they work, save and have a death probability equal to zero. During the second, from the periods T after birth, their probability of death changes to p and then they retire. Capital stock and the stationary state in come are calculated for two situations: in the first, people live from their accumulated capital after retirementj in the second, they live from a state transfer payment through income taxo To simplify matters, in this preliminary version, it is supposed that there is no population growth and that the instantaneous elasticity substitution of consumption is unitary.

All-pay auctions with endogenous asymmetries

We study N-bidders, asymmetric all-pay auctions under incomplete information. First, we solve for the equilibrium of a parametric model. Each bidder’s valuation is independently drawn from an uniform [0, αi] where the parameter αi may vary across bidders. In this game, asymmetries are exogenously given. Next, a two-stage game where asymmetries are endogenously generated is studied. At the first stage, each bidder chooses the level of an observable, costly, value-enhancing action. The second stage is the bidding sub-game, whose equilibrium is simply the equilibrium of the, previously analyzed, game with exogenous asymmetries. Finally, natural applications of the all pay-auction in the context of political lobbying are considered: the effects of excluding bidders, as well as, the impact of caps on bids.

Predictable dividends and returns

The conventional wisdom is that the aggregate stock price is predictable by the lagged pricedividend ratio, and that aggregate dividends follow approximately a random-walk. Contrary to this belief, this paper finds that variation in the aggregate dividends and price-dividend ratio is related to changes in expected dividend growth. The inclusion of labor income in a cointegrated vector autoregression with prices and dividends allows the identification of predictable variation in dividends. Most of the variation in the price-dividend ratio is due to changes in expected returns, but this paper shows that part of variation is related to transitory dividend growth shocks. Moreover, most of the variation in dividend growth can be attributed to these temporary changes in dividends. I also show that the price-dividend ratio (or dividend yield) can be constructed as the sum of two distinct, but correlated, variables that separately predict dividend growth and returns. One of these components, which could be called the expected return state variable, predicts returns better than the price-dividend ratio does.

Social-analytics firms churn out world cup visuals

Three weeks into the world's most famous football tournament, you'd be forgiven for thinking those charts, maps and infographics you've been seeing everywhere were some kind of symptom of your World Cup fever. They are actually the result of a strategy shift by marketing teams in the social-media-measurement space, which have been investing more heavily in designers and content that can show off their products in a visual way.

Endogenous borrowing constraints and default when markets are incomplete

Incomplete markets and non-default borrowing constraints increase the volatility of pricing kernels and are helpful when addressing assetpricing puzzles. However, ruling out default when markets are in complete is suboptimal. This paper endogenizes borrowing constraints as an intertemporal incentive structure to default. It modeIs an infinitehorizon economy, where agents are allowed not to pay their liabilities and face borrowing constraints that depend on the individual history of default. Those constraints trade off the economy's risk-sharing possibilities and incentives to prevent default. The equilibrium presents stationary properties, such as an invariant distribution for the assets' solvency rate.

Do dividends signal more earnings? a theoretical analysis

The signaling models have contributed to the literature of corporate finance by the formalization of "the informational content of dividends hypothesis". However, these models are under criticism of empirical works, as weak evidences were found supporting one of the main predictions: the positive relation between changes in dividends and changes in earnings. We claim that the failure to verify this prediction does not invalidate the signaling approach. The mo deIs developed up to now assume or derive utility functions with the single-crossing property. We show that signaling is possible in the absence of this property and, in this case, changes in dividend and changes in earnings can be positively or negatively related.

Sociedade em conta de participação : riscos de descaracterização do tipo societário e suas consequências

Este trabalho se dispõe a analisar as características das sociedades em conta de participação ou SCP’s, seus principais usos, os riscos de sua descaracterização e suas respectivas consequências. As SCP’s experimentaram crescimento de sua importância e uso nos últimos anos, sendo constatadas na estruturação de diversos tipos de negócios, com destaque na área imobiliária e na realização de investimentos. Como um dos tipos societários admitidos pela legislação, as SCP’s possuem grande plasticidade em sua utilização, adaptando-se às diversas necessidades de seus usuários. Algumas características específicas, no entanto, devem ser observadas pelas partes, sob risco de sua descaracterização. É o caso do papel dos sócios participantes, que não poderão se envolver na execução do objeto da SCP, nem contribuir para a formação do seu patrimônio especial com serviços que tenham relação direta com o seu objeto. E os riscos vão além daqueles previstos no Código Civil, que aponta a solidariedade, com o sócio ostensivo, do sócio participante perante terceiros afetados. Do ponto de vista fiscal, poderá haver a descaracterização da SCP para se considerar a prestação de serviços, quando ocorrerá a incidência de tributos sobre os pagamentos feitos ao sócio participante a título de dividendos. Outros riscos e consequências em modelos de negócio adotados foram explorados e apontados ao longo do trabalho, em que as SCP’s são utilizadas para dissimular uma situação jurídica, de modo a gozar de alguma vantagem. É o caso da previsão de distribuição de resultado em SCP com bens ou coisa certa e não com capital, poderia dissimular um contrato de compra e venda, e quando tal SCP for formada por um grupo de pessoas, poderia dissimular um consórcio para entrega de bens, regido pela Lei 11.795/2008. A divulgação pública de SCP, para captação de investidores, poderia caracterizar a operação como um contrato de investimento coletivo, regulado pela Lei 6.385/1976. Ao final foram listados, como sugestão, alguns cuidados a serem observados para se evitar os riscos apontados ao longo deste trabalho.

The revenge of the market on the rentiers why neo-liberal reports of the end of history turned out to be premature

Starting from the perspective of heterodox Keynesian-Minskyian-Kindlebergian financial economics, this paper begins by highlighting a number of mechanisms that contributed to the current financial crisis. These include excess liquidity, income polarisation, conflicts between financial and productive capital, lack of intelligent regulation, asymmetric information, principal-agent dilemmas and bounded rationalities. However, the paper then proceeds to argue that perhaps more than ever the ‘macroeconomics’ that led to this crisis only makes analytical sense if examined within the framework of the political settlements and distributional outcomes in which it had operated. Taking the perspective of critical social theories the paper concludes that, ultimately, the current financial crisis is the outcome of something much more systemic, namely an attempt to use neo-liberalism (or, in US terms, neo-conservatism) as a new technology of power to help transform capitalism into a rentiers’ delight. And in particular, into a system without much ‘compulsion’ on big business; i.e., one that imposes only minimal pressures on big agents to engage in competitive struggles in the real economy (while inflicting exactly the opposite fate on workers and small firms). A key component in the effectiveness of this new technology of power was its ability to transform the state into a major facilitator of the ever-increasing rent-seeking practices of oligopolistic capital. The architects of this experiment include some capitalist groups (in particular rentiers from the financial sector as well as capitalists from the ‘mature’ and most polluting industries of the preceding techno-economic paradigm), some political groups, as well as intellectual networks with their allies – including most economists and the ‘new’ left. Although rentiers did succeed in their attempt to get rid of practically all fetters on their greed, in the end the crisis materialised when ‘markets’ took their inevitable revenge on the rentiers by calling their (blatant) bluff.

Estudo paramétrico da injeção de vapor em reservatórios delgados

Exploration of heavy oil reservoirs is increasing every year in worldwide, because the discovery of light oil reservoirs is becoming increasingly rare. This fact has stimulated the research with the purpose of becoming viable, technically and economically, the exploration of such oil reserves. In Brazil, in special in the Northeast region, there is a large amount of heavy oil reservoir, where the recovery by the so called secondary methods Water injection or gas injection is inefficient or even impracticable in some reservoirs with high viscosity oils (heavy oils). In this scenario, steam injection appears as an interesting alternative for recover of these kinds of oil reservoirs. Its main mechanism consists of oil viscosity reduction through steam injection, increasing reservoir temperature. This work presents a parametric simulation study of some operational and reservoir variables that had influence on oil recovery in thin reservoirs typically found in Brazilian Northeast Basins, that use the steam injection as improved oil recovery method. To carry out simulations, it was used the commercial software STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) from CMG (Computer Modeling Group) version 2007.11. Reservoirs variables studied were horizontal permeability, vertical and horizontal permeability ratio, water zone and pay zone thickness ratio, pay zone thickness and thermal conductivity of the rock. Whereas, operational parameters studied were distance between wells and steam injection rate. Results showed that reservoir variables that had more influence on oil recovery were horizontal permeability and water zone and pay zone thickness ratio. In relation to operational variables, results showed that short distances between wells and low steam injection rates improved oil recovery

Limnology of Macrobrachium amazonicum grow-out ponds subject to high inflow of nutrient-rich water and different stocking and harvest management

We evaluated the water characteristics and particle sedimentation in Macrobrachium amazonicum (Heller 1862) grow-out ponds supplied with a high inflow of nutrient-rich water. Prawns were subject to different stocking and harvesting strategies: upper-graded juveniles, lower-graded juveniles, non-graded juveniles + selective harvesting and traditional farming (non-grading juveniles and total harvest only). Dissolved oxygen, afternoon N-ammonia and N-nitrate and soluble orthophosphate were lower in the ponds in comparison with inflow water through the rearing cycle. Ponds stocked with the upper population fraction of graded prawns showed higher turbidity, total suspended solids and total Kjeldahl nitrogen than the remaining treatments. An increase in the chemical oxygen demand:biochemical oxygen demand ratio from inlet (4.9) to pond (7.1-8.0) waters indicated a non-readily biodegradable fraction enhancement in ponds. The sedimentation mean rate ranged from 0.08 to 0.16 mm day(-1) and sediment contained >80% of organic matter. The major factors affecting pond ecosystem dynamic were the organic load (due to primary production and feed addition) and bioturbation caused by stocking larger animals. Data suggest that M. amazonicum grow-out in ponds subjected to a high inflow of nutrient-rich water produce changes in the water properties, huge accumulation of organic sediment at the pond bottom and non-readily biodegradable material in the water column. However, the water quality remains suitable for aquaculture purposes. Therefore, nutrient-rich waters, when available, may represent a source of unpaid nutrients, which may be incorporated into economically valued biomass if managed properly.

Effect of intensification on grow out of the Amazon River prawn, Macrobrachium amazonicum

The effects of intensification on growth, survival, productivity, population structure, and distribution of harvested biomass in individual size classes of Macrobrachium amazonicum in semi-intensive culture were evaluated. Postlarvae (0.01 g) were stocked in 12 ponds at densities of 10, 20, 40, and 80/m(2) (three replicates per treatment) and raised for 5.5 mo. Average individual weight significantly decreased and productivity significantly increased as stocking density increased (P < 0.001), while survival was not affected (P > 0.05). Prawn mean weight at harvest ranged from 3.6 (80/m(2)) to 7.0 g (10/m(2)). Average survival ranged from 65.5% (40/m(2)) to 72.8% (20/m(2)), while productivity ranged from 508 (10/m(2)) to 2051 kg/ha (80/m(2)). Harvested biomass showed a clear bimodal distribution in individual size classes indicating the occurrence of heterogeneous growth, which may affect management and market strategies. Harvested biomass of prawns weighing more than 7 g (the best market size) increases for stocking densities up to 40/m(2) and stabilizes between 40 and 80/m(2). Growth reduction was associated with a decreasing frequency and average weight of green claw 1 and green claw 2 male morphotypes and adult females as density increased. Thus, the distribution of male morphotypes and sexually mature females are affected by density-dependent factors. Results suggest that prawn density plays an important role on M. amazonicum grow-out phase, as has been demonstrated for other species of the genus Macrobrachium. M. amazonicum tolerates grow-out intensification and may be raised in both semi-intensive and intensive systems stocked at very high densities yielding high productivity.

Representações sociais de discentes sobre universidade: um estudo psicossocial entre ingressantes do vestibular e da seleção ProUni

Demand for access to higher education to put in test the education Brazilian system in view of the surplus of selective processes of public universities, people without option to pay their studies at this education level. In this context, it has arisen the University for All(Universidade para Todos)Program, the ProUni, from Ministry of Education - MEC, created by the Federal Government in 2004, and that it aims the granting of full and partial scholarships in private higher education institutions, graduate courses in sequential specific training, low-income Brazilians students who do not have higher-level degree. Created by the Provisional Measure No 213/2004 and institutionalized by Law No. 11096 of January 13, 2005, the ProUni offers, however, the exemption of some taxes to those institutions that join the program. This is one of the privileged time for the study of Social Representations by offering the researcher, a living laboratory, natural environment, the confrontation between the established and new. In time like this people are challenged to incorporate the new system to the pre-existing one, aiming it through a strangeness of what was so familiar. It is through this game of social forces that we developed the present study with 196 entering higher education, of these are 116 of selective vestibular system and 80 of the ProUni selective system. We opt by the procedures for data collection in order to have access to the circulating senses, in addition to the streamlined responses. With foundation in Abric, we perform the test the Free Association of Words, then analysed by the software and by EVOC Content of the type theme as Bardin. Besides, we require of the subjects, a writing on the study object university later analysed by the software ALCESTE. The results point out to a representation strongly rooted in social factors such as more traditional socio-cultural elements: the beliefs, values, the symbols. It is unique in both groups of subjects: among those entering by the selective ProUni system, there was a stronger anchor in that it does not make inquiries about the program. At the same time, there is a stronger presence of objectivation, entering the selective vestibular system in order that they explained with a value judgement on the programme. It is suggested further studies considering the embryonic state of social representation, as recent as the social purpose that triggered. It would be relevant even the replication of the same research with other people in order to strengthen the power of the theorising of empiria available