Experimenting with the Coxian Phase-Type Distribution to Uncover Suitable Fits

In the past few decades, Coxian phase-type distributions have become increasingly more popular as a means of representing survival times. In healthcare, they are considered suitable for modelling the length of stay of patients in hospital and more recently for modelling the patient waiting times in Accident and Emergency Departments. The Coxian phase-type distribution has not only been shown to provide a good representation of real survival data, but its interpretation seems reasonably initiative to the medical experts. The drawback, however, is fitting the distribution to the data. There have been many attempts at accurately estimating the Coxian phase-type parameters. This paper wishes to examine the most promising of the approaches reported in the literature to determine the most accurate. Three performance measures are introduced to assess the fitting process of the algorithms along with the likelihood values and AIC to examine the goodness of fit and complexity of the model. Previous research suggests that the fitting process is strongly influenced by the initial parameter estimates and the data itself being quite variable. To overcome this, one experiment in this research paper will use the same initial parameter values for each estimation and perform the fits on the data simulated from a Coxian phase-type distribution with known parameters.

‘Governing (Through) Rights: Statistics as Technologies of Governmentality’

An increasing amount of attention is being given to the use of human rights measurement indicators in monitoring ‘progress’ in rights and there is consequently a growing focus on statistics and information. This article concentrates on the use of statistics in rights discourse, with reference to the new human rights institution for the European Union: the Fundamental Rights Agency. The article has two main objectives: first, to show that statistics operate as technologies of governmentality – by explaining that statistics both govern rights and govern through rights. Second, the article discusses the implications that this has for rights discourse – rights become a discourse of governmentality, that is a normalizing and regulating discourse. In doing so, the article stresses the importance of critique and questioning new socio-legal methodologies, which involve the collection and dissemination of information and data (statistics), in rights discourse.

The Area Distribution of Solar Magnetic Bright Points

Magnetic bright points (MBPs) are among the smallest observable objects on the solar photosphere. A combination of G-band observations and numerical simulations is used to determine their area distribution. An automatic detection algorithm, employing one-dimensional intensity profiling, is utilized to identify these structures in the observed and simulated data sets. Both distributions peak at an area of approximate to 45,000 km(2), with a sharp decrease toward smaller areas. The distributions conform with log-normal statistics, which suggests that flux fragmentation dominates over flux convergence. Radiative magneto-convection simulations indicate an independence in the MBP area distribution for differing magnetic flux densities. The most commonly occurring bright point size corresponds to the typical width of inter-granular lanes.

Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks

In this paper, we extend the heterogeneous panel data stationarity test of Hadri [Econometrics Journal, Vol. 3 (2000) pp. 148–161] to the cases where breaks are taken into account. Four models with different patterns of breaks under the null hypothesis are specified. Two of the models have been already proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al.[Econometrics Journal,Vol. 8 (2005) pp. 159–175]. The moments of the statistics corresponding to the four models are derived in closed form via characteristic functions.We also provide the exact moments of a modified statistic that do not asymptotically depend on the location of the break point under the null hypothesis. The cases where the break point is unknown are also considered. For the model with breaks in the level and no time trend and for the model with breaks in the level and in the time trend, Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. [Econometrics Journal, Vol. 8 (2005) pp. 159–175]showed that the number of breaks and their positions may be allowed to differ acrossindividuals for cases with known and unknown breaks. Their results can easily be extended to the proposed modified statistic. The asymptotic distributions of all the statistics proposed are derived under the null hypothesis and are shown to be normally distributed. We show by simulations that our suggested tests have in general good performance in finite samples except the modified test. In an empirical application to the consumer prices of 22 OECD countries during the period from 1953 to 2003, we found evidence of stationarity once a structural break and cross-sectional dependence are accommodated.

Some properties of the speciation model for food-web structure - Mechanisms for degree distributions and intervality

We present a mathematical analysis of the speciation model for food-web structure, which had in previous work been shown to yield a good description of empirical data of food-web topology. The degree distributions of the network are derived. Properties of the speciation model are compared to those of other models that successfully describe empirical data. It is argued that the speciation model unities the underlying ideas of previous theories. In particular, it offers a mechanistic explanation for the success of the niche model of Williams and Martinez and the frequent observation of intervality in empirical food webs. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil resource supply influences faunal size-specific distributions in natural food webs

The large range of body-mass values of soil organisms provides a tool to assess the ecological organization of soil communities. The goal of this paper is to identify graphical and quantitative indicators of soil community composition and ecosystem functioning, and to illustrate their application to real soil food webs. The relationships between log-transformed mass and abundance of soil organisms in 20 Dutch meadows and heathlands were investigated. Using principles of allometry, maximal use can be made of ecological theory to build and explain food webs. The aggregate contribution of small invertebrates such as nematodes to the entire community is high under low soil phosphorus content and causes shifts in the mass-abundance relationships and in the trophic structures. We show for the first time that the average of the trophic link lengths is a reliable predictor for assessing soil fertility responses. Ordered trophic link pairs suggest a self-organizing structure of food webs according to resource availability and can predict environmental shifts in ecologically meaningful ways.