A ship run aground Deepening problems in the Ukrainian economy. OSW Commentary Number 173, 16 June 2015

The drop in Ukraine’s GDP by nearly 18% in the first three months of 2015 (versus the corresponding period in 2014) has confirmed the decline of the country’s economy. Over the last 14 months, the Ukrainian currency was subject to an almost threefold devaluation against the US dollar, and in April 2015 the inflation rate was 61% (year-on-year), which exacerbated the impoverishment of the general public and weakened domestic demand. The main reason behind the crisis has been the destruction of heavy industry and infrastructure in the war-torn Donbas region, over which Kyiv no longer has control, as well as a sharp decline in foreign trade (by 24% in 2014 and by 34% in the first quarter of 2015), recorded primarily in trading volume with Ukraine’s major trade partner, i.e. Russia (a drop of 43%). The conflict has also had a negative impact on the production figures for the two key sectors of the Ukrainian economy: agriculture and metallurgy, which account for approximately 50% of Ukrainian exports. The government’s response to the crisis has primarily been a reduction in the costs of financing the Donbas and an increase in the financial burden placed on the citizens and companies of Ukraine. No radical reforms which would encompass the entire system, including anti-corruption reforms, have been carried out to stop the embezzlement of state funds and to facilitate business activity. The reasons for not initiating reforms have included the lack of will to launch them, Ukraine’s traditionally slow pace of bureaucratic action and growing dissonance among the parties making up the parliamentary coalition. The few positive changes, including marketisation of energy prices and sustaining budgetary discipline (in the first quarter of 2015, budgetary revenues grew by 25%, though partly as a result of currency devaluation), are being carried out under pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which is making the payment of further loan instalments to the tune of US$ 17.5 billion conditional upon reforms. Despite assistance granted by Western institutional donors and by individual states, the risk of Ukraine going bankrupt remains real. The issue of restructuring foreign debt worth US$ 15 billion has not been resolved, as foreign creditors who hold Ukrainian bonds have not consented to any partial cancellation of the debt. Whether Ukraine’s public finances can be stabilised will depend mainly on the situation in the east of the country and on the possible renewal of military action. It seems that the only way to rescue Ukraine’s public finances from deteriorating further is to continue to ‘freeze’ the conflict, to gradually implement wide-ranging reforms and to reach a consensus in negotiations with lenders.

Higher self-control capacity predicts lower anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations

We assumed that self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem would enable students to keep attentional control during tests. Therefore, we hypothesized that the three personality traits would be negatively related to anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations. Secondary school students (N = 158) completed measures of self-control capacity, self-efficacy, and self-esteem at the beginning of the school year. Five months later, anxiety-impaired cognition during math examinations was assessed. Higher self-control capacity, but neither self-efficacy nor self-esteem, predicted lower anxiety-impaired cognition 5 months later, over and above baseline anxiety-impaired cognition. Moreover, self-control capacity was indirectly related to math grades via anxiety-impaired cognition. The findings suggest that improving self-control capacity may enable students to deal with anxiety-related problems during school tests.

Fault development and interaction in distributed strike-slip shear zones: an experimental approach

Analogue model experiments using both brittle and viscous materials were performed to investigate the development and interaction of strike-slip faults in zones of distributed shear deformation. At low strain, bulk dextral shear deformation of an initial rectangular model is dominantly accommodated by left-stepping, en echelon strike-slip faults (Riedel shears, R) that form in response to the regional (bulk) stress field. Push-up zones form in the area of interaction between adjacent left-stepping Riedel shears. In cross sections, faults bounding push-up zones have an arcuate shape or merge at depth. Adjacent left-stepping R shears merge by sideways propagation or link by short synthetic shears that strike subparallel to the bulk shear direction. Coalescence of en echelon R shears results in major, through-going faults zones (master faults). Several parallel master faults develop due to the distributed nature of deformation. Spacing between master faults is related to the thickness of the brittle layers overlying the basal viscous layer. Master faults control to a large extent the subsequent fault pattern. With increasing strain, relatively short antithetic and synthetic faults develop mostly between old, but still active master faults. The orientation and evolution of the new faults indicate local modifications of the stress field. In experiments lacking lateral borders, closely spaced parallel antithetic faults (cross faults) define blocks that undergo clockwise rotation about a vertical axis with continuing deformation. Fault development and fault interaction at different stages of shear strain in our models show similarities with natural examples that have undergone distributed shear.

Export control implementation issues with respect to high-performance computers : hearing before Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Sixth Congress, second session, May 26, 2000.

Shipping list no.: 2000-0347-P.

Waste and financial management problems at the Air Force : hearing before the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Second Congress, second session, February 19, 1992.

Shipping list no.: 92-0609-P.

Urban intersection improvements for pedestrian safety. Volume II. Identification of safety and operational problems at intersections. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

Chemoprevention clinical trials : problems and solutions /

"November 1984."

Management and budget problems in the United States government, 1992 : hearing before the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Second Congress, second session, February 5, 1992.

Shipping list no.: 93-0332-P.

Contracting problems at the Resolution Trust Corporation (Operation Western Storm) : hearing before the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Second Congress, second session, March 3, 1992.

Shipping list no.: 93-0522-P.

Financial problems : are the agencies getting better? : hearing before the Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Third Congress, second session, July 28, 1994.

Shipping list no.: 95-0076-P.

Contracting problems at EPA : hearing before Committee on Governmental Affairs, United States Senate, One Hundred Second Congress, second session, March 2, 1992.

Shipping list no.: 93-0404-P.

Identification of traffic management problems in work zones. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Research, Washington, D.C.

Airport access problems : lessons learned from slot regulation by the FAA : an economic policy analysis /

Item 535

President's Private Sector Survey on Cost Control : report on personnel management.

Distributed to depository libraries in microfiche.

Enforcement of underage impaired-driving laws - issues, problems, recommended solutions.

Mode of access: Internet.