Modellizzazione bioeconomica per la gestione dei piccoli pelagici nel Mar Adriatico

Stocks’ overexploitation and socio-economic sustainability are two major issues currently at stake in European fisheries. In this view the European Commission is considering the implementation of management plans as a means to move towards a longer-term perspective on fisheries management, to consider regional differences and to increase stakeholder involvement. Adriatic small pelagic species (anchovies and sardines) are some of the most studied species in the world from a biologic perspective; several economic analysis have also been realised on Italian pelagic fishery; despite that, no complete bioeconomic modelization has been carried out yet considering all biologic, technical and economic issues. Bioeconomic models cannot be considered foolproof tools but are important implements to help decision makers and can supply a fundamental scientific basis for management plans. This research gathers all available information (from biologic, technologic and economic perspectives) in order to carry out a bioeconomic model of the Adriatic pelagic fishery. Different approaches are analyzed and some of them developed to highlight potential divergences in results, characteristics and implications. Growth, production and demand functions are estimated. A formal analysis about interaction and competition between Italian and Croatian fleet is examined proposing different equilibriums for open access, duopoly and a form of cooperative solution. Anyway normative judgments are limited because of poor knowledge of population dynamics and data related to the Croatian fleet.

BioTuCSoN: biochemical extension of TuCSoN to support self-organising coordination

Starting from pervasive computing paradigm, we want to face the new system's requirements, concerning, mainly, self-organisation, situatedness and adaptivity, through the definition and execution of nature-inspired patterns. They are extracted by the study of dynamics in biological systems and we consider for their implementation the biochemical tuple spaces model. In particular, the aim of the thesis is to design and realize a first biochemical extension of TuCSoN (technology based on tuple spaces model) and, then, to verify its capabilities by means of a proper case study, that deals with local self-organisation and competition of services in an open and highly-dynamic environment.

Committed to reform? Pragmatic antitrust enforcement in electricity markets

This thesis is a collection of essays about the instrumental use of commitment decisions to facilitate the completion of the European internal electricity market. European policy can shape markets in many ways, two most evident being regulation and competition enforcement. The interplay between these two instruments attracts a lot of scholarly attention. One of the major concerns in the competition vs. regulation debate is the instrumental use of competition rules. It has been observed that competition enforcement is triggered not only as a response to an anticompetitive harm occurring in the market, but that it sometimes becomes a powerful tool in the European Commission’s hands to pursue regulatory goals. This thesis looks for examples of such instrumentalisation in the context of electricity markets and finds that the Commission is very pragmatic in using all the possible instruments it has at hand to push forward its project of creating the internal electricity market. This includes regulation, competition enforcement and all sorts of political pressure. To the extent that commitment decisions accelerate sector-specific regulation and overcome political deadlocks, they contribute to the Commission’s energy policy goals. However, instrumentalisation of competition rules comes at a certain cost to competition policy, energy policy and, most importantly, to electricity markets themselves. Markets might be negatively affected either indirectly, by application of sector-specific regulation or competition policy building on previous commitment decisions, or directly, through the implementation of inadequate commitments in individual cases. Concluding, commitment decisions generally contributed to achieving the policy objectives of the internal electricity market, but their use for that purpose does not come without cost. Given that this cost is ultimately borne by the internal electricity market, the Commission should take a more balanced approach to the instrumental use of commitment decisions so that it does not do more harm than good.

Servizi offerti su spazi demaniali in concessione e diritto dell'Unione Europea

La tesi analizza, sotto vari aspetti del diritto dell’Unione Europea, i servizi che sono offerti su spazi demaniali. Si articola in quattro capitoli: Il primo capitolo ricostruisce, valutandone l’impatto sui servizi che sono oggetto della presente indagine, lo sviluppo giurisprudenziale della Libertà di Stabilimento e della Libera Prestazione di Servizi, analizzando, altresì, i principi generali e l’art.16 della Carta dei Diritti Fondamentali dell’Unione. Il secondo capitolo è, invece, dedicato al diritto secondario, ossia alla Direttiva 2006/123/CE, alle Direttive “Appalti” e alla Direttiva “Concessioni”. La prima, che nulla aggiunge al quadro normativo trattato nel primo capitolo, svolge, pertanto una vera e propria funzione appaltante e concessoria. Le seconde, invece, seppur non applicabili alle fattispecie ivi esaminate, restano utili per comprendere quale declinazione possano avere i principi di eguaglianza, di non discriminazione, di trasparenza, di pubblicità e di concorrenza nella regolazione dei servizi offerti su spazi demaniali. La terza, invece, in quanto a rilevanza, presenta alcuni punti critici che fanno propendere per una sua non applicabilità. Resta comunque utile sempre in materia di principi, i quali, come evidenziato nell’ultima parte del secondo capitolo, sono stati utilizzati dalla Corte di Giustizia, pur nella totale assenza, fino alla recente direttiva, di strumenti di diritto secondario applicabili alle concessioni. Il terzo capitolo, invece, affronta le problematiche emerse all’interno dell’ordinamento italiano e attua una comparazione tra il sistema italiano e quello portoghese, croato, francese, spagnolo. Il quarto capitolo, da ultimo, prende in considerazione il delicato equilibrio, sempre più attuale, tra principi in materia di appalti pubblici e aiuti di Stato, valutando come, sia il permanere dello status quo, sia un riordino non conforme alla Direttiva 2006/123/CE e ai principi da essa richiamati possa costituire un aiuto di Stato incompatibile con il mercato interno.

Le partecipazioni azionarie degli enti locali tra dismissione ed esigenze di governo dei servizi pubblici

La ricerca indaga le relazioni che si sono instaurate nel corso degli anni tra il principio di legalità, inteso nella sua declinazione di principio di funzionalizzazione, e principio di concorrenza nell’ambito delle società per la gestione dei servizi pubblici locali. Più precisamente, lo scopo del lavoro è valutare le evoluzioni di tale rapporto, dal momento in cui gli enti locali sono stati ufficialmente autorizzati a costituire società per la gestione dei servizi pubblici locali nel 1990. Lo stimolo a sviluppare queste considerazioni trova la sua ragione nelle pressioni provenienti dalle istituzioni europee, che hanno gradualmente imposto una qualificazione prettamente economica ai servizi a favore della collettività, ritenuti un ambito in cui possa naturalmente imporsi una competizione economica tra operatori economici, indipendentemente dalla loro natura giuridica. Il problema del vincolo funzionale nella partecipazione in società degli enti locali è certamente l’oggetto principale del lavoro. Tuttavia, la questione non può essere analizzata separatamente dalle politiche di dismissione promosse dal legislatore nell’ultimo decennio. L’obiettivo principale delle riforme avviate è stato quello di frenare la proliferazione di società costituite dagli enti locali, così da garantire sia un risparmio di risorse pubbliche sia una maggiore facilità per gli imprenditori privati ad affacciarsi su mercati tradizionalmente appannaggio delle amministrazioni. Stona però con le intenzioni il fatto che gli obblighi ex lege di cessione delle partecipazioni azionarie detenute dagli enti locali non siano stati generalmente imposti per le società di gestione dei servizi pubblici (resi in favore della collettività), bensì per quelle che svolgono servizi strumentali (in favore dell’amministrazione stessa). La scelta appare contraddittoria, in quanto il distacco tra vincolo funzionale e partecipazione degli enti locali nella compagine societaria si ravvisa in particolar modo nel primo dei due moduli menzionati. Si assiste dunque ad una frammentazione del principio di legalità.

Anpassung des Metamodells PerPot an den ausdauerorientierten Laufsport zur Trainings- und Wettkampfoptimierung

Schon seit einigen Jahrzehnten wird die Sportwissenschaft durch computergestützte Methoden in ihrer Arbeit unterstützt. Mit der stetigen Weiterentwicklung der Technik kann seit einigen Jahren auch zunehmend die Sportpraxis von deren Einsatz profitieren. Mathematische und informatische Modelle sowie Algorithmen werden zur Leistungsoptimierung sowohl im Mannschafts- als auch im Individualsport genutzt. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird das von Prof. Perl im Jahr 2000 entwickelte Metamodell PerPot an den ausdauerorientierten Laufsport angepasst. Die Änderungen betreffen sowohl die interne Modellstruktur als auch die Art der Ermittlung der Modellparameter. Damit das Modell in der Sportpraxis eingesetzt werden kann, wurde ein Kalibrierungs-Test entwickelt, mit dem die spezifischen Modellparameter an den jeweiligen Sportler individuell angepasst werden. Mit dem angepassten Modell ist es möglich, aus gegebenen Geschwindigkeitsprofilen die korrespondierenden Herzfrequenzverläufe abzubilden. Mit dem auf den Athleten eingestellten Modell können anschliessend Simulationen von Läufen durch die Eingabe von Geschwindigkeitsprofilen durchgeführt werden. Die Simulationen können in der Praxis zur Optimierung des Trainings und der Wettkämpfe verwendet werden. Das Training kann durch die Ermittlung einer simulativ bestimmten individuellen anaeroben Schwellenherzfrequenz optimal gesteuert werden. Die statistische Auswertung der PerPot-Schwelle zeigt signifikante Übereinstimmungen mit den in der Sportpraxis üblichen invasiv bestimmten Laktatschwellen. Die Wettkämpfe können durch die Ermittlung eines optimalen Geschwindigkeitsprofils durch verschiedene simulationsbasierte Optimierungsverfahren unterstützt werden. Bei der neuesten Methode erhält der Athlet sogar im Laufe des Wettkampfs aktuelle Prognosen, die auf den Geschwindigkeits- und Herzfrequenzdaten basieren, die während des Wettkampfs gemessen werden. Die mit PerPot optimierten Wettkampfzielzeiten für die Athleten zeigen eine hohe Prognosegüte im Vergleich zu den tatsächlich erreichten Zielzeiten.

Organisationale Selbststeuerung in deutschen Universitäten : Bedingungen, Prozesse und Wirkungen

Die Regulierung und Steuerung von Hochschulen unterliegt spätestens seit der Liberalisierung des Hochschulrahmengesetzes im Jahr 1998 einer erheblichen Reformdynamik. Hochschulautonomie, New Public Management, Profilbildung, Exzellenz und Wettbewerb sind zentrale Stichworte im Rahmen der durchgeführten politischen Reformen und Programme.rnDer politisch intendierte Ausbau einer organisationalen Selbststeuerung von Universitäten stellt die Hochschulen vor beachtliche Herausforderungen und kann als Paradigmenwechsel im Bereich der Hochschul-Governance betrachtet werden. In der Fachdiskussion wird der entsprechende Wandel auch als Stärkung der „managerial governance“ (bspw. de Boer et al. 2007) oder als Wandel von Universitäten hin zu „more complete organizations“ (Brunsson/ Sahlin-Andersson 2000) bzw. „organisational actors“ (Krücken/Meier 2006) beschrieben. rnGleichzeitig liegt bislang eher fragmentarisches Wissen darüber vor, wie der veränderte Re-gulierungskontext von den Steuerungsakteuren in deutschen Hochschulen aufgegriffen wird, d.h. ob auf Organisationsebene tatsächlich ein Ausbau der organisationalen Selbststeuerung stattfindet, welche Steuerungsinitiativen und -instrumente sich bewähren und warum dies der Fall ist. Die vorliegende Arbeit geht diesen Fragen im Rahmen einer vergleichenden Fallstudie an sechs Universitäten nach. rnIm Zentrum der empirischen Erhebung stehen 60 qualitative sozialwissenschaftliche Interviews mit Leitungsakteuren auf Hochschul- und Fachbereichsebene. Diese Daten werden ergänzt durch umfangreiche Dokumentenanalysen, insbesondere von Jahresberichten, Grundordnungen, Strategie- und Planungsdokumenten sowie durch Daten der amtlichen Hochschul-statistik. Das Untersuchungsdesign erlaubt überdies eine Gegenüberstellung von großen und kleinen Universitäten sowie von Hochschulen mit einer technisch-naturwissenschaftlichen Ausrichtung gegenüber solchen mit einem kultur- und sozialwissenschaftlichen Schwerpunkt. Die Untersuchung zeigt, dass an fünf der sechs untersuchten Hochschulen ein zum Teil deutlicher Ausbau der organisationalen Selbststeuerung festzustellen ist, wenngleich der spezifische organisationale Charakter von Universitäten, d.h. eine weitgehend lose Kopplung mit autonomen Professionals, im Wesentlichen erhalten bleibt. Die Zusammenschau der Veränderungen ergibt ein idealtypisches Modell des Wandels von Strategie, Struktur und Kultur der Hochschulen. Auf Basis der empirischen Ergebnisse werden weiterhin zentrale externe und interne Einflussfaktoren auf den spezifischen organisationalen Wandel analysiert. Schließlich werden Kosten und Nutzen sowie Risiken und Chancen der Governance-Reformen im Hoch-schulbereich gegenübergestellt.

Glukose-konjugierte Hemmstoffe als Strategie der gezielten Hemmung des DNA-Reparaturproteins O 6 -Methylguanin-DNA-Methyltransferase in Tumorzellen und der Einfluss von ATP-binding cassette Transportern

Das DNA-Reparaturprotein O6-Methylguanin-DNA-Methyltransferase [MGMT] ist der Hauptresistenzfaktor gegenüber der zytotoxischen Wirkung von SN1-alkylierenden Zytostatika in der Tumortherapie. Die Verwendung der MGMT-Hemmstoffe O6-Benzylguanin [O6BG] und O6-(4-Bromothenyl)guanin [O6BTG] führte zu einer Sensibilisierung des Normalgewebes, was eine Dosis-Reduktion der Zytostatika erforderlich machte und die erhoffte Therapieverbesserung verhinderte. Aus diesem Grund ist eine Strategie der selektiven Hemmung des MGMT-Proteins (Targeting-Strategie) erforderlich, um die systemische Toxizität in der Kombinationsbehandlung zu reduzieren. In dieser Arbeit wurde die Anwendbarkeit der Glukose-Konjugation als Targeting-Strategie untersucht, da Tumorzellen einen erhöhten Glukoseverbrauch aufweisen und demzufolge Glukosetransporter überexprimieren. Die Glukose-Konjugate O6BG-Glu und O6BTG-Glu inhibierten MGMT in Tumorzellen und sensibilisierten die Zellen gegenüber den alkylierenden Agenzien Temozolomid [TMZ] und Lomustin [CCNU]. Des Weiteren inaktivierten die Glukose-Konjugate die MGMT-Aktivität im Tumor eines Xenograft-Mausmodells und reduzierten das Tumorwachstum nach einer TMZ-Behandlung im gleichen Ausmass wie die Inhibitoren O6BG und O6BTG. Trotzdem war auch mit den Glukose-Konjugaten keine Steigerung der Zytostatika-Dosis im Mausmodell möglich. Die Untersuchungen der Aufnahme von O6BG-Glu und O6BTG-Glu wiederlegten eine Involvierung der Glukosetransporter. Der Einsatz von spezifischen Glukosetransporter-Inhibitoren und Kompetitions-Experimenten führte zu keiner Verminderung der MGMT-Hemmung oder Aufnahme vom radioaktiven H3-O6BTG-Glu in die Zelle. Dies legt nahe, dass die Glukose-Konjugate über einen unspezifischen Mechanismus (aktiv) in die Zellen gelangen. Der Grund für eine mögliche unselektive Aufnahme könnte im hydrophoben Alkyllinker, der für die Konjugation des Glukosemoleküls verwendet wurde, begründet sein. Dies führt zur Generierung von amphipathischen Konjugaten, die eine initiale Bindung an die Plasmamembran aufweisen und eine Aufnahme über den Flip-Flop-Mechanismus (transbilayer transport) wahrscheinlich machen. Die amphipathische Molekülstruktur der Glukose-Konjugate führte zu einer Partikelbildung in wässrigen Lösungen, die eine Reduktion der Menge an aktiven Monomeren von O6BG-Glu und O6BTG-Glu bewirken, die zur Hemmung von MGMT zur Verfügung stehen. Der zweite Teil der Arbeit befasste sich mit der Rolle von ABC-Transportern hinsichtlich einer Targeting-Strategie von MGMT-Hemmstoffen. Obwohl eine hohe Expression dieser ABC-Transporter in Tumoren zur Resistenzentwicklung gegenüber Zytostatika führt, wurde ihr Einfluss auf MGMT-Hemmstoffe oder einer MGMT-Targeting-Strategie niemals untersucht. In dieser Arbeit wurde zum ersten Mal ein aktiver Efflux von MGMT-Hemmstoffen durch ABC-Transporter nachgewiesen. Die Inhibition von ABC-Transportern bewirkte eine schnellere Inaktivierung von MGMT durch die Glukose-Konjugate. Des Weiteren zeigten Kompetitions-Experimente mit den MGMT-Hemmstoffen eine verminderte Efflux-Rate von Fluoreszenzfarbstoffen, die spezifisch von ABC-Transportern exportiert werden. ABC-Transporter reduzieren die wirksame Konzentration des Hemmstoffes in der Zelle und beeinträchtigen somit die Effektivität der MGMT-Inhibition. Eine simultane Hemmung der ABC-Transporter P-glycoprotein (P-gp), multi resistance protein 1 (MRP1) and breast cancer resistance protein (BCRP) erhöhte die Effektivität der MGMT-Hemmstoffe (O6BG, O6BTG, O6BG-Glu, O6BTG-Glu) und verstärkte auf diese Weise die TMZ-induzierte Toxizität in Tumorzelllinien. Die Involvierung von ABC-Transportern in der intrazellulären Speicherung von MGMT-Hemmstoffen ist wahrscheinlich die Ursache für die beobachteten Unterschiede in der Sensibilisierung verschiedener Tumorzelllinien gegenüber Zytostatika durch das Glukose-Konjugat O6BG-Glu. Eine Strategie, den Einfluss von ABC-Transportern zu reduzieren und zukünftliche MGMT-Targeting-Strategien effizienter umzusetzen, ist die Verwendung von O6BTG als Ausgangssubstanz. Die höhere Inhibitionsfähigkeit der Bromthiophenmoleküle vermindert die erforderliche intrazelluläre Konzentration für eine vollständige MGMT-Hemmung und reduziert auf diese Weise den Einfluss von ABC-Transportern.

Communication in troubled waters: responses of fish communication systems to changing environments

Fish populations are increasingly being subjected to anthropogenic changes to their sensory environments. The impact of these changes on inter- and intra-specific communication, and its evolutionary consequences, has only recently started to receive research attention. A disruption of the sensory environment is likely to impact communication, especially with respect to reproductive interactions that help to maintain species boundaries. Aquatic ecosystems around the world are being threatened by a variety of environmental stressors, causing dramatic losses of biodiversity and bringing urgency to the need to understand how fish respond to rapid environmental changes. Here, we discuss current research on different communication systems (visual, chemical, acoustic, electric) and explore the state of our knowledge of how complex systems respond to environmental stressors using fish as a model. By far the bulk of our understanding comes from research on visual communication in the context of mate selection and competition for mates, while work on other communication systems is accumulating. In particular, it is increasingly acknowledged that environmental effects on one mode of communication may trigger compensation through other modalities. The strength and direction of selection on communication traits may vary if such compensation occurs. However, we find a dearth of studies that have taken a multimodal approach to investigating the evolutionary impact of environmental change on communication in fish. Future research should focus on the interaction between different modes of communication, especially under changing environmental conditions. Further, we see an urgent need for a better understanding of the evolutionary consequences of changes in communication systems on fish diversity.

A Test of Absolute Numerousness Judgments in Lion-Tailed Macaques (Macaca Silenus)

Numerous studies have shown that animals have a sense of quantity and can distinguish between relative amounts. The concepts of relative numerousness, estimation, and subitizing are well established in species as diverse as chimpanzees and salamanders. Mobile animals have practical use for an understanding of number in common situations such as predation, mating, and competition. However, the ability to identify discrete quantities has only been firmly established in humans. The purpose of this study was to test for such “absolute numerousness” judgments in three lion-tailed macaques (Macaca silenus), a non-human primate. The three macaques tested had previously been trained on a computerized matchto- sample (MTS) task using geometric shapes. In this study, they were introduced to a MTS task containing a numerical cue, which required the monkeys to match stimuli containing either one or two items for rewards. If monkeys were successful at the initial matching task, they were tested with stimuli in which the position of the items and then the surface area of the items was controlled. If the monkeys could match successfully without using these non-numerical cues, they would demonstrate the capability to make absolute numerousness judgments. None of the monkeys matched successfully using the numerical cue, so no evidence of absolute numerosity was found. Each macaque progressed through the experiment in an individualized manner, attempting a variety of strategies to obtain rewards. These included side preferences and an alternating-side strategy that were unrelated to the numerical cues in the stimuli. When it became clear that the monkeys were not matching based on a stimulus-based cue, they were tested again on matching geometric shapes. All three macaques stopped using their alternate strategies and were able to match shapes successfully, demonstrating that they were still capable of completing the matching task. The data suggest that the monkeys could not transfer this ability to the numerical stimuli. This indicates that the macaques lack a sense of exact quantity, or that they could not recognize the numerical cues in the stimuli as being relevant to the task.

A Method for Assessing the Sustainability of Design in Developing World Projects

Projects for the developing world usually find themselves at the bottom of an engineer’s priority list. There is often very little engineering effort placed on creating new products for the poorest people in the world. This trend is beginning to change now as people begin to recognize the potential for these projects. Engineers are beginning to try and solve some of the direst issues in the developing world and many are having positive impacts. However, the conditions needed to support these projects can only be maintained in the short term. There is now a need for greater sustainability. Sustainability has a wide variety of definitions in both business and engineering. These concepts are analyzed and synthesized to develop a broad meaning of sustainability in the developing world. This primarily stems from the “triple bottom line” concept of economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Using this model and several international standards, this thesis develops a metric for guiding and evaluating the sustainability of engineering projects. The metric contains qualitative questions that investigate the sustainability of a project. It is used to assess several existing projects in order to determine flaws. Specifically, three projects seeking to deliver eyeglasses are analyzed for weaknesses to help define a new design approach for achieving better results. Using the metric as a guiding tool, teams designed two pieces of optometry equipment: one to cut lenses for eyeglasses and the other to diagnose refractive error, or prescription. These designs are created and prototyped in the developed and developing worlds in order to determine general feasibility. Although there is a recognized need for eventual design iterations, the whole project is evaluated using the developed metric and compared to the existing projects. Overall, the success demonstrates the improvements made to the long-term sustainability of the project resulting from the use of the sustainability metric.

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex affects divided attention immediately after cessation of stimulation

Transcranial magnetic stimulation has evolved into a powerful neuroscientific tool allowing to interfere transiently with specific brain functions. In addition, repetitive TMS (rTMS) has long-term effects (e.g. on mood), probably mediated by neurochemical alterations. While long-term safety of rTMS with regard to cognitive functioning is well established from trials exploring its therapeutic efficacy, little is known on whether rTMS can induce changes in cognitive functioning in a time window ranging from minutes to hours, a time in which neurochemical effects correlated with stimulation have been demonstrated. This study examined effects of rTMS on three measures of executive function in healthy subjects who received one single rTMS session (40 trains of 2 s duration 20 Hz stimuli) at the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Compared to a sham condition one week apart, divided attention performance was significantly impaired about 30-60 min after rTMS, while Stroop-interference and performance in the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test was unaffected after rTMS. Repetitive TMS of the left DLPFC, at stimulation parameters used in therapeutic studies, does not lead to a clinically relevant impairment of executive function after stimulation. However, the significant effect on divided attention suggests that cognitive effects of rTMS are not limited to the of acute stimulation, and may possibly reflect known neurochemical alterations induced by rTMS. Sensitive cognitive measures may be useful to trace those short-term effects of rTMS non-invasively in humans.

Towards greater accuracy in individual-tree mortality regression

Background mortality is an essential component of any forest growth and yield model. Forecasts of mortality contribute largely to the variability and accuracy of model predictions at the tree, stand and forest level. In the present study, I implement and evaluate state-of-the-art techniques to increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, similar to those used in many of the current variants of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, using data from North Idaho and Montana. The first technique addresses methods to correct for bias induced by measurement error typically present in competition variables. The second implements survival regression and evaluates its performance against the traditional logistic regression approach. I selected the regression calibration (RC) algorithm as a good candidate for addressing the measurement error problem. Two logistic regression models for each species were fitted, one ignoring the measurement error, which is the “naïve” approach, and the other applying RC. The models fitted with RC outperformed the naïve models in terms of discrimination when the competition variable was found to be statistically significant. The effect of RC was more obvious where measurement error variance was large and for more shade-intolerant species. The process of model fitting and variable selection revealed that past emphasis on DBH as a predictor variable for mortality, while producing models with strong metrics of fit, may make models less generalizable. The evaluation of the error variance estimator developed by Stage and Wykoff (1998), and core to the implementation of RC, in different spatial patterns and diameter distributions, revealed that the Stage and Wykoff estimate notably overestimated the true variance in all simulated stands, but those that are clustered. Results show a systematic bias even when all the assumptions made by the authors are guaranteed. I argue that this is the result of the Poisson-based estimate ignoring the overlapping area of potential plots around a tree. Effects, especially in the application phase, of the variance estimate justify suggested future efforts of improving the accuracy of the variance estimate. The second technique implemented and evaluated is a survival regression model that accounts for the time dependent nature of variables, such as diameter and competition variables, and the interval-censored nature of data collected from remeasured plots. The performance of the model is compared with the traditional logistic regression model as a tool to predict individual tree mortality. Validation of both approaches shows that the survival regression approach discriminates better between dead and alive trees for all species. In conclusion, I showed that the proposed techniques do increase the accuracy of individual tree mortality models, and are a promising first step towards the next generation of background mortality models. I have also identified the next steps to undertake in order to advance mortality models further.

STROBE Statement: linee guida per descrivere gli studi osservazionali

Much of biomedical research is observational. The reporting of such research is often inadequate, which hampers the assessment of its strengths and weaknesses and of a study’s generalizability. The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Initiative developed recommendations on what should be included in an accurate and complete report of an observational study. We defined the scope of the recommendations to cover three main study designs: cohort, casecontrol, and cross-sectional studies. We convened a 2-day workshop in September 2004, with methodologists, researchers, and journal editors to draft a checklist of items. This list was subsequently revised during several meetings of the coordinating group and in e-mail discussions with the larger group of STROBE contributors, taking into account empirical evidence and methodological considerations. The workshop and the subsequent iterative process of consultation and revision resulted in a checklist of 22 items (the STROBE Statement) that relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results, and discussion sections of articles. Eighteen items are common to all three study designs and four are specific for cohort, case-control, or cross-sectional studies. A detailed “Explanation and Elaboration” document is published separately and is freely available on the web sites of PLoS Medicine, Annals of Internal Medicine, and Epidemiology. We hope that the STROBE Statement will contribute to improving the quality of reporting of observational studies.