Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

Experimental designs and analysis of data for mixtures

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Design and implementation of graphical user interfaces for complex simulations

The development of increasingly powerful computers, which has enabled the use of windowing software, has also opened the way for the computer study, via simulation, of very complex physical systems. In this study, the main issues related to the implementation of interactive simulations of complex systems are identified and discussed. Most existing simulators are closed in the sense that there is no access to the source code and, even if it were available, adaptation to interaction with other systems would require extensive code re-writing. This work aims to increase the flexibility of such software by developing a set of object-oriented simulation classes, which can be extended, by subclassing, at any level, i.e., at the problem domain, presentation or interaction levels. A strategy, which involves the use of an object-oriented framework, concurrent execution of several simulation modules, use of a networked windowing system and the re-use of existing software written in procedural languages, is proposed. A prototype tool which combines these techniques has been implemented and is presented. It allows the on-line definition of the configuration of the physical system and generates the appropriate graphical user interface. Simulation routines have been developed for the chemical recovery cycle of a paper pulp mill. The application, by creation of new classes, of the prototype to the interactive simulation of this physical system is described. Besides providing visual feedback, the resulting graphical user interface greatly simplifies the interaction with this set of simulation modules. This study shows that considerable benefits can be obtained by application of computer science concepts to the engineering domain, by helping domain experts to tailor interactive tools to suit their needs.

Molecular modelling assisted design and synthesis of cyclothialidine derivatives as DNA gyrase inhibitors

Since cyclothialidine was discovered as the most active DNA gyrase inhibitor in 1994, enormous efforts have been devoted to make it into a commercial medicine by a number of pharmaceutical companies and research groups worldwide. However, no serious breakthrough has been made up to now. An essential problem involved with cyclothialidine is that though it demonstrated the potent inhibition of DNA gyrase, it showed little activity against bacteria. This probably is attributable to its inability to penetrate bacterial cell walls and membranes. We applied the TSAR programme to generate a QSAR equation to the gram-negative organisms. In that equation, LogP is profoundly indicated as the key factor influencing the cyclothialidine activity against bacteria. However, the synthesized new analogues have failed to prove that. In the structure based drug design stage, we designed a group of open chain cyclothialidine derivatives by applying the SPROUT programme and completed the syntheses. Improved activity is found in a few analogues and a 3D pharmacophore of the DNA gyrase B is proposed to lead to synthesis of the new derivatives for development of potent antibiotics.

Design and synthesis of potential antimicrobial agents

Tuberculosis is one of the most devastating diseases in the world primarily due to several decades of neglect and an emergence of multidrug-resitance strains (MDR) of M. tuberculosis together with the increased incidence of disseminated infections produced by other mycobacterium in AIDS patients. This has prompted the search for new antimycobacterial drugs. A series of pyridine-2-, pyridine-3-, pyridine-4-, pyrazine and quinoline-2-carboxamidrazone derivatives and new classes of carboxamidrazone were prepared in an automated fashion and by traditional synthesis. Over nine hundred synthesized compounds were screened for their anti mycobacterial activity against M. fortutium (NGTG 10394) as a surrogate for M. tuberculosis. The new classes of amidrazones were also screened against tuberculosis H37 Rv and antimicrobial activities against various bacteria. Fifteen tested compounds were found to provide 90-100% inhibition of mycobacterium growth of M. tuberculosis H37 Rv in the primary screen at 6.25 μg mL-1. The most active compound in the carboxamidrazone amide series had an MIG value of 0.1-2 μg mL-1 against M. fortutium. The enzyme dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) has been a drug-design target for decades. Blocking of the enzymatic activity of DHFR is a key element in the treatment of many diseases, including cancer, bacterial and protozoal infection. The x-ray structure of DHFR from M. tuberculosis and human DHFR were found to have differences in substrate binding site. The presence of glycerol molecule in the Xray structure from M. tuberculosis DHFR provided opportunity to design new antifolates. The new antifolates described herein were designed to retain the pharmcophore of pyrimethamine (2,4- diamino-5(4-chlorophenyl)-6-ethylpyrimidine), but encompassing a range of polar groups that might interact with the M. tuberculosis DHFR glycerol binding pockets. Finally, the research described in this thesis contributes to the preparation of molecularly imprinted polymers for the recognition of 2,4-diaminopyrimidine for the binding the target. The formation of hydrogen bonding between the model functional monomer 5-(4-tert-butyl-benzylidene)-pyrimidine-2,4,6-trione and 2,4-diaminopyrimidine in the pre-polymerisation stage was verified by 1H-NMR studies. Having proven that 2,4-diaminopyrimidine interacts strongly with the model 5-(4-tert-butylbenzylidene)- pyrimidine-2,4,6-trione, 2,4-diaminopyrimidine-imprinted polymers were prepared using a novel cyclobarbital derived functional monomer, acrylic acid 4-(2,4,6-trioxo-tetrahydro-pyrimidin-5- ylidenemethyl)phenyl ester, capable of multiple hydrogen bond formation with the 2,4- diaminopyrimidine. The recognition property of the respective polymers toward the template and other test compounds was evaluated by fluorescence. The results demonstrate that the polymers showed dose dependent enhancement of fluorescence emissions. In addition, the results also indicate that synthesized MIPs have higher 2,4-diaminopyrimidine binding ability as compared with corresponding non-imprinting polymers.

Aspects of the design and control of manufacturing systems subject to demand uncertainty

The recent explosive growth in advanced manufacturing technology (AMT) and continued development of sophisticated information technologies (IT) is expected to have a profound effect on the way we design and operate manufacturing businesses. Furthermore, the escalating capital requirements associated with these developments have significantly increased the level of risk associated with initial design, ongoing development and operation. This dissertation has examined the integration of two key sub-elements of the Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) system, namely the manufacturing facility and the production control system. This research has concentrated on the interactions between production control (MRP) and an AMT based production facility. The disappointing performance of such systems has been discussed in the context of a number of potential technological and performance incompatibilities between these two elements. It was argued that the design and selection of operating policies for both is the key to successful integration. Furthermore, policy decisions are shown to play an important role in matching the performance of the total system to the demands of the marketplace. It is demonstrated that a holistic approach to policy design must be adopted if successful integration is to be achieved. It is shown that the complexity of the issues resulting from such an approach required the formulation of a structured design methodology. Such a methodology was subsequently developed and discussed. This combined a first principles approach to the behaviour of system elements with the specification of a detailed holistic model for use in the policy design environment. The methodology aimed to make full use of the `low inertia' characteristics of AMT, whilst adopting a JIT configuration of MRP and re-coupling the total system to the market demands. This dissertation discussed the application of the methodology to an industrial case study and the subsequent design of operational policies. Consequently a novel approach to production control resulted. A central feature of which was a move toward reduced manual intervention in the MRP processing and scheduling logic with increased human involvement and motivation in the management of work-flow on the shopfloor. Experimental results indicated that significant performance advantages would result from the adoption of the recommended policy set.

Aspects of the design and operation of production control systems in manufacturing industry

Computerised production control developments have concentrated on Manufacturing Resources Planning (MRP II) systems. The literature suggests however, that despite the massive investment in hardware, software and management education, successful implementation of such systems in manufacturing industries has proved difficult. This thesis reviews the development of production planning and control systems, in particular, investigates the causes of failures in implementing MRP/MRP II systems in industrial environments and argues that the centralised and top-down planning structure, as well as the routine operational methodology of such systems, is inherently prone to failure. The thesis reviews the control benefits of cellular manufacturing systems but concludes that in more dynamic manufacturing environments, techniques such as Kanban are inappropriate. The basic shortcomings of MRP II systems are highlighted and a new enhanced operational methodology based on distributed planning and control principles is introduced. Distributed Manufacturing Resources Planning (DMRP), was developed as a capacity sensitive production planning and control solution for cellular manufacturing environments. The system utilises cell based, independently operated MRP II systems, integrated into a plant-wide control system through a Local Area Network. The potential benefits of adopting the system in industrial environments is discussed and the results of computer simulation experiments to compare the performance of the DMRP system against the conventional MRP II systems presented. DMRP methodology is shown to offer significant potential advantages which include ease of implementation, cost effectiveness, capacity sensitivity, shorter manufacturing lead times, lower working in progress levels and improved customer service.

Computer aided design and manufacture of form-rolls

Cold roll forming of thin-walled sections is a very useful process in the sheet metal industry. However, the conventional method for the design and manufacture of form-rolls, the special tooling used in the cold roll forming process, is a very time consuming and skill demanding exercise. This thesis describes the establishment of a stand-alone minicomputer based CAD/CAM system for assisting the design and manufacture of form-rolls. The work was undertaken in collaboration with a leading manufacturer of thin-walled sections. A package of computer programs have been developed to provide computer aids for every aspect of work in form-roll design and manufacture. The programs have been successfully implemented, as an integrated CAD/CAM software system, on the ICL PERQ minicomputer with graphics facilities. Thus, the developed CAD/CAM system is a single-user workstation, with software facilities to help the user to perform the conventional roll design activities including the design of the finished section, the flower pattern, and the form-rolls. A roll editor program can then be used to modify, if required, the computer generated roll profiles. As far as manufacturing is concerned, a special-purpose roll machining program and postprocessor can be used in conjunction to generate the NC control part-programs for the production of form-rolls by NC turning. Graphics facilities have been incorporated into the CAD/CAM software programs to display drawings interactively on the computer screen throughout all stages of execution of the CAD/CAM software. It has been found that computerisation can shorten the lead time in all activities dealing with the design and manufacture of form-rolls, and small or medium size manufacturing companies can gain benefits from the CAD/CM! technology by developing, according to its own specification, a tailor-made CAD/CAM software system on a low cost minicomputer.

The design and implementation of a portable operating system for microcomputers

Communication and portability are the two main problems facing the user. An operating system, called PORTOS, was developed to solve these problems for users on dedicated microcomputer systems. Firstly, an interface language was defined, according to the anticipated requirements and behaviour of its potential users. Secondly, the PORTOS operating system was developed as a processor for this language. The system is currently running on two minicomputers of highly different architectures. PORTOS achieves its portability through its high-level design, and implementation in CORAL66. The interface language consists of a set of user cotnmands and system responses. Although only a subset has been implemented, owing to time and manpower constraints, promising results were achieved regarding the usability of the language, and its portability.

Design and function of trilobite exoskeletons

The fossil arthropod Class Trilobita is characterised by the possession of a highly mineralised dorsal exoskeleton with an incurved marginal flange (doublure). This cuticle is usually the only part of the organism to be preserved. Despite the common occurrence of trilobites in Palaeozoic sediments, the original exoskeletal mineralogy has not been determined previously. Petrographic data involving over seventy trilobite species, ranging in age from Cambrian to Devonian, together with atomic absorption and stable isotope analyses, indicate a primary low-magnesian calcite composition. Trilobite cuticles exhibit a variety of preservational textures which are related to the different diagenetic realms through which they have passed. A greater knowledge of post-depositional processes and the specific features they produce, has enabled post-mortem artefacts to be distinguished from primary cuticular microstructures. Alterations of the cuticle can either enhance or destroy primary features, and their effects are best observed in thin-sections, both under transmitted light and cathodoluminescence. Well-preserved trilobites often retain primary microstructures such as laminations, canals, and tubercles. These have been examined in stained thin-sections and by scanning electron microscopy, from as wide a range of trilobites as possible. Construction of sensory field maps has shown that although the basic organisation of the exoskeleton is the same in all trilobites, the types of microstructures found, and their distribution is species-specific. The composition, microstructure, and architecture of the trilobite exoskeleton have also been studied from a biomechanical viewpoint. Total cuticle thickness, and the relative proportions of the different layers, together with the overall architecture all affected the mechanical properties of the exoskeleton.

Comparing German and British political culture through values : and analysis of the values of health care reform

This research sets out to compare the values in British and German political discourse, especially the discourse of social policy, and to analyse their relationship to political culture through an analysis of the values of health care reform. The work proceeds from the hypothesis that the known differences in political culture between the two countries will be reflected in the values of political discourse, and takes a comparison of two major recent legislative debates on health care reform as a case study. The starting point in the first chapter is a brief comparative survey of the post-war political cultures of the two countries, including a brief account of the historical background to their development and an overview of explanatory theoretical models. From this are developed the expected contrasts in values in accordance with the hypothesis. The second chapter explains the basis for selecting the corpus texts and the contextual information which needs to be recorded to make a comparative analysis, including the context and content of the reform proposals which comprise the case study. It examines any contextual factors which may need to be taken into account in the analysis. The third and fourth chapters explain the analytical method, which is centred on the use of definition-based taxonomies of value items and value appeal methods to identify, on a sentence-by-sentence basis, the value items in the corpus texts and the methods used to make appeals to those value items. The third chapter is concerned with the classification and analysis of values, the fourth with the classification and analysis of value appeal methods. The fifth chapter will present and explain the results of the analysis, and the sixth will summarize the conclusions and make suggestions for further research.

INTAMAP: the design and implementation of an interoperable automated interpolation web service

INTAMAP is a Web Processing Service for the automatic spatial interpolation of measured point data. Requirements were (i) using open standards for spatial data such as developed in the context of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), (ii) using a suitable environment for statistical modelling and computation, and (iii) producing an integrated, open source solution. The system couples an open-source Web Processing Service (developed by 52°North), accepting data in the form of standardised XML documents (conforming to the OGC Observations and Measurements standard) with a computing back-end realised in the R statistical environment. The probability distribution of interpolation errors is encoded with UncertML, a markup language designed to encode uncertain data. Automatic interpolation needs to be useful for a wide range of applications and the algorithms have been designed to cope with anisotropy, extreme values, and data with known error distributions. Besides a fully automatic mode, the system can be used with different levels of user control over the interpolation process.

Design and fabrication of fibre Bragg gratings with V-shaped dispersion profile for multi-channel signal processing

We propose a new type of fiber Bragg grating (FBG) with a V-shaped dispersion profile. We demonstrate that such V-shaped FBGs bring advantages in manipulation of optical signals compared to conventional FBGs with a constant dispersion, e.g., they can produce larger chirp for the same input pulsewidth and/or can be used as pulse shapers. Application of the proposed V-shaped FBGs for signal prechirping in fiber transmission is examined. The proposed design of the V-shaped FBG can be easily extended to embrace multichannel devices.