Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Model Uncertainty in Panel Vector Autoregressive Models.

We develop methods for Bayesian model averaging (BMA) or selection (BMS) in Panel Vector Autoregressions (PVARs). Our approach allows us to select between or average over all possible combinations of restricted PVARs where the restrictions involve interdependencies between and heterogeneities across cross-sectional units. The resulting BMA framework can find a parsimonious PVAR specification, thus dealing with overparameterization concerns. We use these methods in an application involving the euro area sovereign debt crisis and show that our methods perform better than alternatives. Our findings contradict a simple view of the sovereign debt crisis which divides the euro zone into groups of core and peripheral countries and worries about financial contagion within the latter group.

Large Bayesian VARMAs

Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models have many theoretical properties which should make them popular among empirical macroeconomists. However, they are rarely used in practice due to over-parameterization concerns, difficulties in ensuring identification and computational challenges. With the growing interest in multivariate time series models of high dimension, these problems with VARMAs become even more acute, accounting for the dominance of VARs in this field. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach for inference in VARMAs which surmounts these problems. It jointly ensures identification and parsimony in the context of an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We use this approach in a macroeconomic application involving up to twelve dependent variables. We find our algorithm to work successfully and provide insights beyond those provided by VARs.

Culex saltanensis Dyar, 1928: natural vector of Plasmodium juxtanucleare in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Searching for the natural vector of Plasmodium juxtanucleare in an enzootic locality: Granjas Calábria (33% of the chickens infected), Jacarepaguá, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 13 comparative captures of mosquitoes were carried out, simultaneously on man (out-doors) and on chiken (in a poultry-yard), between 6 and 9 p.m., from September to March 1989. Culex saltanensis was the most frequent species in captures on chicken, accounting for 41.7% of the mosquitoes collected on this bait, showing to be highly ornithophilic (90% captured on chicken versus 10% on man). Seven specimens of Cx. saltanensis were found naturally infected in granjas Calábria: five with mature pedunculate oocysts and two with sporozoites (on in the haemocoele and one in the salivary glands). These sporozoites porudced an infection by P. juxtanucleare in a chick, which had parasitemia on day 41 after inoculation. One Cx. coronator was found with mature pedunculate oocysts. Culex saltanensis was regarded as primary vector of P. juxtanucleare in Rio de Janeiro for being highly ornithophilic and in enough density to maintain the transmission, having been found with infective sporozoites in its salivary glands, and being susceptible to the parasite and able to transmit experimentally it by the bite.

Prior selection for panel vector autoregressions

There is a vast literature that specifies Bayesian shrinkage priors for vector autoregressions (VARs) of possibly large dimensions. In this paper I argue that many of these priors are not appropriate for multi-country settings, which motivates me to develop priors for panel VARs (PVARs). The parametric and semi-parametric priors I suggest not only perform valuable shrinkage in large dimensions, but also allow for soft clustering of variables or countries which are homogeneous. I discuss the implications of these new priors for modelling interdependencies and heterogeneities among different countries in a panel VAR setting. Monte Carlo evidence and an empirical forecasting exercise show clear and important gains of the new priors compared to existing popular priors for VARs and PVARs.

Investigation of field and diffusion time dependence of the diffusion-weighted signal at ultrahigh magnetic fields.

Over the last decade, there has been a significant increase in the number of high-magnetic-field MRI magnets. However, the exact effect of a high magnetic field strength (B0 ) on diffusion-weighted MR signals is not yet fully understood. The goal of this study was to investigate the influence of different high magnetic field strengths (9.4 T and 14.1 T) and diffusion times (9, 11, 13, 15, 17 and 24 ms) on the diffusion-weighted signal in rat brain white matter. At a short diffusion time (9 ms), fractional anisotropy values were found to be lower at 14.1 T than at 9.4 T, but this difference disappeared at longer diffusion times. A simple two-pool model was used to explain these findings. The model describes the white matter as a first hindered compartment (often associated with the extra-axonal space), characterized by a faster orthogonal diffusion and a lower fractional anisotropy, and a second restricted compartment (often associated with the intra-axonal space), characterized by a slower orthogonal diffusion (i.e. orthogonal to the axon direction) and a higher fractional anisotropy. Apparent T2 relaxation time measurements of the hindered and restricted pools were performed. The shortening of the pseudo-T2 value from the restricted compartment with B0 is likely to be more pronounced than the apparent T2 changes in the hindered compartment. This study suggests that the observed differences in diffusion tensor imaging parameters between the two magnetic field strengths at short diffusion time may be related to differences in the apparent T2 values between the pools. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Are dead Triatoma infestans a competent vector of Trypanosoma cruzi?

After Triatoma infestans death, Trypanosoma cruzi survived several days, maintaining the ability to infect a vertebrate host. Dead bugs from an endemic area collected during an official spraying comapign showed mobile rectal tripanosomes up to 14 days after vector death. Two days after vector death2, 760 tripomastigotes were found alive in its rectal material. However, the number of mobile tripomastigotes decreased significantly from the 5th day after death. Laboratory proofs with third and fifth nymphal stage showed similar results. Living tripanosomes were found in their rectal material at 10 days in third stage and even at 30 days in fifth nymphal stage. The mean number of tripomastigotes had no changes up to 10 days in third nymphal stage and increased significantly from 1 to 10 days in the fifth stage. Conjuctival instillation as well as intraperitoneal innoculation to mice, of metacyclic forms from dead T. infestans produced infection in the vertebrate host. Present results show that human contact with dead vector highly probable in summer and living and infective T. cruzi are available for transmision in the vector.

NYVAC immunization induces polyfunctional HIV-specific T-cell responses in chronically-infected, ART-treated HIV patients.

We report the results of the Theravac-01 phase I trial, which was conducted to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of a poxvirus-based vector, NYVAC, expressing Gag, Pol, Nef, and Env from an HIV clade B isolate. NYVAC-B vaccine was injected intra-muscularly into ten HIV-infected patients successfully treated with antiretroviral therapy, twice on day 0 and again at week 4. Safety and immunogenicity were monitored for 48 weeks. HIV-specific T-cell responses following immunization were quantitatively analyzed using an IFN-γ ELISPOT assay and qualitatively characterized for their functional profile (including multiple cytokines secretion plus cytotoxic and proliferation capacity) by polychromatic flow cytometry. Our results indicate that the NYVAC-B vaccine is safe and highly immunogenic, as indicated by increased HIV-specific T-cell responses in virtually all vaccinees. Interestingly, both an expansion of preexisting T-cell responses, and the appearance of newly detected HIV-specific CD4(+) and CD8(+) T-cell responses were observed. Furthermore, immunization mostly induced an increase in Gag-specific T-cell responses. In conclusion, NYVAC-B immunization induces broad, vigorous, and polyfunctional HIV-specific T-cell responses, suggesting that poxvirus-based vaccine regimens may be instrumental in the therapeutic HIV vaccine field.

Dissecting carotenoid from structural components of carotenoid-based coloration: a field experiment with great tits (Parus major).

Carotenoid-based yellowish to red plumage colors are widespread visual signals used in sexual and social communication. To understand their ultimate signaling functions, it is important to identify the proximate mechanism promoting variation in coloration. Carotenoid-based colors combine structural and pigmentary components, but the importance of the contribution of structural components to variation in pigment-based colors (i.e., carotenoid-based colors) has been undervalued. In a field experiment with great tits (Parus major), we combined a brood size manipulation with a simultaneous carotenoid supplementation in order to disentangle the effects of carotenoid availability and early growth condition on different components of the yellow breast feathers. By defining independent measures of feather carotenoid content (absolute carotenoid chroma) and background structure (background reflectance), we demonstrate that environmental factors experienced during the nestling period, namely, early growth conditions and carotenoid availability, contribute independently to variation in yellow plumage coloration. While early growth conditions affected the background reflectance of the plumage, the availability of carotenoids affected the absolute carotenoid chroma, the peak of maximum ultraviolet reflectance, and the overall shape, that is, chromatic information of the reflectance curves. These findings demonstrate that environment-induced variation in background structure contributes significantly to intraspecific variation in yellow carotenoid-based plumage coloration.

Influence of short time exposure to an insect growth regulator, hexaflumuron, on mortality and adult emergence of vector mosquitoes

Hexaflumuron, an insect growth regulator (IGR), was found to greatly affect the development of immatures and emergence of adults of three species of vector mosquitoes, Culex quinquefasciatus, Aedes aegypti and Anopheles stephensi, when larvae were subjected to short time exposure of < or = 1h. This IGR could completely prevent adult emergence even at a minimum exposure time of 10 min at 0.001, 0.01 and 0.1 mg/l. On treatment, larval and pupal mortality as well as varying degrees of morphogenetic abnormalities were induced in immatures and adults of the three species. Four weeks of control achieved in a slow moving sullage canal breeding Culex quinquefasciatus indicates that this IGR can be of use in such breeding habitats.

Use of glass beads and CF 11 cellulose for removal of leukocytes from malaria-infected human blood in field settings

Passage of malaria infected blood through a two-layered column composed of acid-washed glass beads and CF 11 cellulose removes white cells from parasitized blood. However, because use of glass beads and CF 11 cellulose requires filtration of infected blood separately through these two resins and the addition of ADP, the procedure is time-consuming and may be inapropriate for use in the field, especially when large numbers of blood samples are to be treated. Our modification of this process yields parasitized cells free of contaminating leukocytes, and because of its operational simplicity, large numbers of blood samples can be processed. Our procedure also compares well with those using expensive commercial Sepacell resins in its ability to separate leukocytes from whole blood. As a test of usefulness in molecular biologic investigations, the parasites obtained from the blood of malaria-infected patients using the modified procedure yield genomic DNA whose single copy gene, the circumsporozite gene, efficiently amplifies by polymerase chain reaction.

Molecular biological approaches to the study of vectors in relation to malaria control

To a large extent, control of malaria vectors relies on the elimination of breeding sites and the application of chemical agents. There are increasing problems associated with the use of synthetic insecticides for vector control, including the evolution of resistance, the high cost of developing and registering new insecticides and an awareness of pollution from insecticide residues. These factors have stimulated interest in the application of molecular biology to the study of mosquito vectors of malaria; focussing primarily on two aspects. First, the improvement of existing control measures through the development of simplified DNA probe systems suitable for identification of vectors of malaria. The development of synthetic, non-radioactive DNA probes suitable for identification of species in the Anopheles gambiae complex is described with the aim of defining a simplified methodology wich is suitable for entomologist in the field. The second aspect to be considered is the development of completely novel strategies through the development of completely novel strategies through the genetic manipulation of insect vectors of malaria in order to alter their ability to transmit the disease. The major requirements for producing transgenic mosquitoes are outlined together with the progress wich has been made to date and discussed in relation to the prospects which this type of approach has for the future control of malaria.