The impact of fasting on the interpretation of triglyceride levels for predicting myocardial infarction risk in HIV-positive individuals: the D:A:D study.

We assessed whether fasting modifies the prognostic value of these measurements for the risk of myocardial infarction (MI). Analyses used mixed effect models and Poisson regression. After confounders were controlled for, fasting triglyceride levels were, on average, 0.122 mmol/L lower than nonfasting levels. Each 2-fold increase in the latest triglyceride level was associated with a 38% increase in MI risk (relative rate, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.51); fasting status did not modify this association. Our results suggest that it may not be necessary to restrict analyses to fasting measurements when considering MI risk.

Joint Official Positions of the International Society for Clinical Densitometry and International Osteoporosis Foundation on FRAX(®). Executive Summary of the 2010 Position Development Conference on Interpretation and use of FRAX® in clinical practice.

The International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) and the International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) convened the FRAX(®) Position Development Conference (PDC) in Bucharest, Romania, on November 14, 2010, following a two-day joint meeting of the ISCD and IOF on the "Interpretation and Use of FRAX(®) in Clinical Practice." These three days of critical discussion and debate, led by a panel of international experts from the ISCD, IOF and dedicated task forces, have clarified a number of important issues pertaining to the interpretation and implementation of FRAX(®) in clinical practice. The Official Positions resulting from the PDC are intended to enhance the quality and clinical utility of fracture risk assessment worldwide. Since the field of skeletal assessment is still evolving rapidly, some clinically important issues addressed at the PDCs are not associated with robust medical evidence. Accordingly, some Official Positions are based largely on expert opinion. Despite limitations inherent in such a process, the ISCD and IOF believe it is important to provide clinicians and technologists with the best distillation of current knowledge in the discipline of bone densitometry and provide an important focus for the scientific community to consider. This report describes the methodology and results of the ISCD-IOF PDC dedicated to FRAX(®).

An Experimental Validation of a Statistical-Based Damage Detection Approach, January 2011

In this work, a previously-developed, statistical-based, damage-detection approach was validated for its ability to autonomously detect damage in bridges. The damage-detection approach uses statistical differences in the actual and predicted behavior of the bridge caused under a subset of ambient trucks. The predicted behavior is derived from a statistics-based model trained with field data from the undamaged bridge (not a finite element model). The differences between actual and predicted responses, called residuals, are then used to construct control charts, which compare undamaged and damaged structure data. Validation of the damage-detection approach was achieved by using sacrificial specimens that were mounted to the bridge and exposed to ambient traffic loads and which simulated actual damage-sensitive locations. Different damage types and levels were introduced to the sacrificial specimens to study the sensitivity and applicability. The damage-detection algorithm was able to identify damage, but it also had a high false-positive rate. An evaluation of the sub-components of the damage-detection methodology and methods was completed for the purpose of improving the approach. Several of the underlying assumptions within the algorithm were being violated, which was the source of the false-positives. Furthermore, the lack of an automatic evaluation process was thought to potentially be an impediment to widespread use. Recommendations for the improvement of the methodology were developed and preliminarily evaluated. These recommendations are believed to improve the efficacy of the damage-detection approach.

LDL-cholesterol concentrations: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND: LDL cholesterol has a causal role in the development of cardiovascular disease. Improved understanding of the biological mechanisms that underlie the metabolism and regulation of LDL cholesterol might help to identify novel therapeutic targets. We therefore did a genome-wide association study of LDL-cholesterol concentrations. METHODS: We used genome-wide association data from up to 11,685 participants with measures of circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations across five studies, including data for 293 461 autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with a minor allele frequency of 5% or more that passed our quality control criteria. We also used data from a second genome-wide array in up to 4337 participants from three of these five studies, with data for 290,140 SNPs. We did replication studies in two independent populations consisting of up to 4979 participants. Statistical approaches, including meta-analysis and linkage disequilibrium plots, were used to refine association signals; we analysed pooled data from all seven populations to determine the effect of each SNP on variations in circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations. FINDINGS: In our initial scan, we found two SNPs (rs599839 [p=1.7x10(-15)] and rs4970834 [p=3.0x10(-11)]) that showed genome-wide statistical association with LDL cholesterol at chromosomal locus 1p13.3. The second genome screen found a third statistically associated SNP at the same locus (rs646776 [p=4.3x10(-9)]). Meta-analysis of data from all studies showed an association of SNPs rs599839 (combined p=1.2x10(-33)) and rs646776 (p=4.8x10(-20)) with LDL-cholesterol concentrations. SNPs rs599839 and rs646776 both explained around 1% of the variation in circulating LDL-cholesterol concentrations and were associated with about 15% of an SD change in LDL cholesterol per allele, assuming an SD of 1 mmol/L. INTERPRETATION: We found evidence for a novel locus for LDL cholesterol on chromosome 1p13.3. These results potentially provide insight into the biological mechanisms that underlie the regulation of LDL cholesterol and might help in the discovery of novel therapeutic targets for cardiovascular disease.

State of Iowa Juvenile Delinquency Annual Statistical Report, 2006

The Iowa Juvenile Court Services Offices are issuing their fourth annual statewide report. The the Iowa Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP). This report would not be possible without the dedication of, and assistance from, all of the above-mentioned people. The eight Chief Juvenile Court Officers would like to take this opportunity to thank their staff for their dedication and their ability to enter accurate information on every youth referred to Juvenile Court Services; the staff at the Iowa Court Information System, without whom this report would not be possible; and CJJP for their maintenance of the Iowa Justice Data Warehouse and their support in preparing this document.

State of Iowa Juvenile Delinquency Annual Statistical Report, 2007

The Iowa Juvenile Court Services Offices are issuing their fourth annual statewide report. The the Iowa Division of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Planning (CJJP). This report would not be possible without the dedication of, and assistance from, all of the above-mentioned people. The eight Chief Juvenile Court Officers would like to take this opportunity to thank their staff for their dedication and their ability to enter accurate information on every youth referred to Juvenile Court Services; the staff at the Iowa Court Information System, without whom this report would not be possible; and CJJP for their maintenance of the Iowa Justice Data Warehouse and their support in preparing this document.

GIS-based debris flow source and runout susceptibility assessment from DEM data - a case study in NW Nicaragua

In October 1998, Hurricane Mitch triggered numerous landslides (mainly debris flows) in Honduras and Nicaragua, resulting in a high death toll and in considerable damage to property. The potential application of relatively simple and affordable spatial prediction models for landslide hazard mapping in developing countries was studied. Our attention was focused on a region in NW Nicaragua, one of the most severely hit places during the Mitch event. A landslide map was obtained at 1:10 000 scale in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment from the interpretation of aerial photographs and detailed field work. In this map the terrain failure zones were distinguished from the areas within the reach of the mobilized materials. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 20 m×20 m of pixel size was also employed in the study area. A comparative analysis of the terrain failures caused by Hurricane Mitch and a selection of 4 terrain factors extracted from the DEM which, contributed to the terrain instability, was carried out. Land propensity to failure was determined with the aid of a bivariate analysis and GIS tools in a terrain failure susceptibility map. In order to estimate the areas that could be affected by the path or deposition of the mobilized materials, we considered the fact that under intense rainfall events debris flows tend to travel long distances following the maximum slope and merging with the drainage network. Using the TauDEM extension for ArcGIS software we generated automatically flow lines following the maximum slope in the DEM starting from the areas prone to failure in the terrain failure susceptibility map. The areas crossed by the flow lines from each terrain failure susceptibility class correspond to the runout susceptibility classes represented in a runout susceptibility map. The study of terrain failure and runout susceptibility enabled us to obtain a spatial prediction for landslides, which could contribute to landslide risk mitigation.

An integrated encyclopedia of DNA elements in the human genome.

The human genome encodes the blueprint of life, but the function of the vast majority of its nearly three billion bases is unknown. The Encyclopedia of DNA Elements (ENCODE) project has systematically mapped regions of transcription, transcription factor association, chromatin structure and histone modification. These data enabled us to assign biochemical functions for 80% of the genome, in particular outside of the well-studied protein-coding regions. Many discovered candidate regulatory elements are physically associated with one another and with expressed genes, providing new insights into the mechanisms of gene regulation. The newly identified elements also show a statistical correspondence to sequence variants linked to human disease, and can thereby guide interpretation of this variation. Overall, the project provides new insights into the organization and regulation of our genes and genome, and is an expansive resource of functional annotations for biomedical research.

Analysis and spatial modeling of the indoor radon Swiss data

The present research deals with an important public health threat, which is the pollution created by radon gas accumulation inside dwellings. The spatial modeling of indoor radon in Switzerland is particularly complex and challenging because of many influencing factors that should be taken into account. Indoor radon data analysis must be addressed from both a statistical and a spatial point of view. As a multivariate process, it was important at first to define the influence of each factor. In particular, it was important to define the influence of geology as being closely associated to indoor radon. This association was indeed observed for the Swiss data but not probed to be the sole determinant for the spatial modeling. The statistical analysis of data, both at univariate and multivariate level, was followed by an exploratory spatial analysis. Many tools proposed in the literature were tested and adapted, including fractality, declustering and moving windows methods. The use of Quan-tité Morisita Index (QMI) as a procedure to evaluate data clustering in function of the radon level was proposed. The existing methods of declustering were revised and applied in an attempt to approach the global histogram parameters. The exploratory phase comes along with the definition of multiple scales of interest for indoor radon mapping in Switzerland. The analysis was done with a top-to-down resolution approach, from regional to local lev¬els in order to find the appropriate scales for modeling. In this sense, data partition was optimized in order to cope with stationary conditions of geostatistical models. Common methods of spatial modeling such as Κ Nearest Neighbors (KNN), variography and General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) were proposed as exploratory tools. In the following section, different spatial interpolation methods were applied for a par-ticular dataset. A bottom to top method complexity approach was adopted and the results were analyzed together in order to find common definitions of continuity and neighborhood parameters. Additionally, a data filter based on cross-validation was tested with the purpose of reducing noise at local scale (the CVMF). At the end of the chapter, a series of test for data consistency and methods robustness were performed. This lead to conclude about the importance of data splitting and the limitation of generalization methods for reproducing statistical distributions. The last section was dedicated to modeling methods with probabilistic interpretations. Data transformation and simulations thus allowed the use of multigaussian models and helped take the indoor radon pollution data uncertainty into consideration. The catego-rization transform was presented as a solution for extreme values modeling through clas-sification. Simulation scenarios were proposed, including an alternative proposal for the reproduction of the global histogram based on the sampling domain. The sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was presented as the method giving the most complete information, while classification performed in a more robust way. An error measure was defined in relation to the decision function for data classification hardening. Within the classification methods, probabilistic neural networks (PNN) show to be better adapted for modeling of high threshold categorization and for automation. Support vector machines (SVM) on the contrary performed well under balanced category conditions. In general, it was concluded that a particular prediction or estimation method is not better under all conditions of scale and neighborhood definitions. Simulations should be the basis, while other methods can provide complementary information to accomplish an efficient indoor radon decision making.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Photodynamic Diagnosis of Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer with Hexaminolevulinate Cystoscopy: A Meta-analysis of Detection and Recurrence Based on Raw Data.

BACKGROUND: Studies on hexaminolevulinate (HAL) cystoscopy report improved detection of bladder tumours. However, recent meta-analyses report conflicting effects on recurrence. OBJECTIVE: To assess available clinical data for blue light (BL) HAL cystoscopy on the detection of Ta/T1 and carcinoma in situ (CIS) tumours, and on tumour recurrence. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This meta-analysis reviewed raw data from prospective studies on 1345 patients with known or suspected non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC). INTERVENTION: A single application of HAL cystoscopy was used as an adjunct to white light (WL) cystoscopy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We studied the detection of NMIBC (intention to treat [ITT]: n=831; six studies) and recurrence (per protocol: n=634; three studies) up to 1 yr. DerSimonian and Laird's random-effects model was used to obtain pooled relative risks (RRs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for outcomes for detection. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: BL cystoscopy detected significantly more Ta tumours (14.7%; p<0.001; odds ratio [OR]: 4.898; 95% CI, 1.937-12.390) and CIS lesions (40.8%; p<0.001; OR: 12.372; 95% CI, 6.343-24.133) than WL. There were 24.9% patients with at least one additional Ta/T1 tumour seen with BL (p<0.001), significant also in patients with primary (20.7%; p<0.001) and recurrent cancer (27.7%; p<0.001), and in patients at high risk (27.0%; p<0.001) and intermediate risk (35.7%; p=0.004). In 26.7% of patients, CIS was detected only by BL (p<0.001) and was also significant in patients with primary (28.0%; p<0.001) and recurrent cancer (25.0%; p<0.001). Recurrence rates up to 12 mo were significantly lower overall with BL, 34.5% versus 45.4% (p=0.006; RR: 0.761 [0.627-0.924]), and lower in patients with T1 or CIS (p=0.052; RR: 0.696 [0.482-1.003]), Ta (p=0.040; RR: 0.804 [0.653-0.991]), and in high-risk (p=0.050) and low-risk (p=0.029) subgroups. Some subgroups had too few patients to allow statistically meaningful analysis. Heterogeneity was minimised by the statistical analysis method used. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis confirms that HAL BL cystoscopy significantly improves the detection of bladder tumours leading to a reduction of recurrence at 9-12 mo. The benefit is independent of the level of risk and is evident in patients with Ta, T1, CIS, primary, and recurrent cancer.

Sequential therapist interventions and the therapeutic alliance: a pilot study

(from the journal abstract) Scientific interest for the concept of alliance has been maintained and stimulated by repeated findings that a strong alliance is associated with facilitative treatment process and favourable treatment outcome. However, because the alliance is not in itself a therapeutic technique, these findings were unsuccessful in bringing about significant improvements in clinical practice. An essential issue in modern psychotherapeutic research concerns the relation between common factors which are known to explain great variance in empirical results and the specific therapeutic techniques which are the primary basis of clinical training and practice. This pilot study explored sequences in therapist interventions over four sessions of brief psychodynamic investigation. It aims at determining if patterns of interventions can be found during brief psychodynamic investigation and if these patterns can be associated with differences in the therapeutic alliance. Therapist interventions where coded using the Psychodynamic Intervention Rating Scale (PIRS) which enables the classification of each therapist utterance into one of 9 categories of interpretive interventions (defence interpretation, transference interpretation), supportive interventions (question, clarification, association, reflection, supportive strategy) or interventions about the therapeutic frame (work-enhancing statement, contractual arrangement). Data analysis was done using lag sequential analysis, a statistical procedure which identifies contingent relationships in time among a large number of behaviours. The sample includes N = 20 therapist-patient dyads assigned to three groups with: (1) a high and stable alliance profile, (2) a low and stable alliance profile and (3) an improving alliance profile. Results suggest that therapists most often have one single intention when interacting with patients. Large sequences of questions, associations and clarifications were found, which indicate that if a therapist asks a question, clarifies or associates, there is a significant probability that he will continue doing so. A single theme sequence involving frame interventions was also observed. These sequences were found in all three alliance groups. One exception was found for mixed sequences of interpretations and supportive interventions. The simultaneous use of these two interventions was associated with a high or an improving alliance over the course of treatment, but not with a low and stable alliance where only single theme sequences of interpretations were found. In other words, in this last group, therapists were either supportive or interpretative, whereas with high or improving alliance, interpretations were always given along with supportive interventions. This finding provides evidence that examining therapist interpretation individually can only yield incomplete findings. How interpretations were given is important for alliance building. It also suggests that therapists should carefully dose their interpretations and be supportive when necessary in order to build a strong therapeutic alliance. And from a research point of view, to study technical interventions, we must look into dynamic variables such as dosage, the supportive quality of an intervention, and timing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved)

Statistical assessment of dataset shift and model portability in multi-angle in-track image acquisitions

In this study we propose an evaluation of the angular effects altering the spectral response of the land-cover over multi-angle remote sensing image acquisitions. The shift in the statistical distribution of the pixels observed in an in-track sequence of WorldView-2 images is analyzed by means of a kernel-based measure of distance between probability distributions. Afterwards, the portability of supervised classifiers across the sequence is investigated by looking at the evolution of the classification accuracy with respect to the changing observation angle. In this context, the efficiency of various physically and statistically based preprocessing methods in obtaining angle-invariant data spaces is compared and possible synergies are discussed.

Random assignment of intervention points in two phase single-case designs: data-division-specific distributions

The present study explores the statistical properties of a randomization test based on the random assignment of the intervention point in a two-phase (AB) single-case design. The focus is on randomization distributions constructed with the values of the test statistic for all possible random assignments and used to obtain p-values. The shape of those distributions is investigated for each specific data division defined by the moment in which the intervention is introduced. Another aim of the study consisted in testing the detection of inexistent effects (i.e., production of false alarms) in autocorrelated data series, in which the assumption of exchangeability between observations may be untenable. In this way, it was possible to compare nominal and empirical Type I error rates in order to obtain evidence on the statistical validity of the randomization test for each individual data division. The results suggest that when either of the two phases has considerably less measurement times, Type I errors may be too probable and, hence, the decision making process to be carried out by applied researchers may be jeopardized.

Correlation between microtensile bond strength data and clinical outcome of Class V restorations.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the results of resin-dentin microtensile bond strength (µTBS) is correlated with the outcome parameters of clinical studies on non-retentive Class V restorations. METHODS: Resin-dentin µTBS data were obtained from one test center; the in vitro tests were all performed by the same operator. The µTBS testing was performed 8h after bonding and after 6 months of storing the specimens in water. Pre-test failures (PTFs) of specimens were included in the analysis, attributing them a value of 1MPa. Prospective clinical studies on cervical restorations (Class V) with an observation period of at least 18 months were searched in the literature. The clinical outcome variables were retention loss, marginal discoloration and marginal integrity. Furthermore, an index was formulated to be better able to compare the laboratory and clinical results. Estimates of adhesive effects in a linear mixed model were used to summarize the clinical performance of each adhesive between 12 and 36 months. Spearman correlations between these clinical performances and the µTBS values were calculated subsequently. RESULTS: Thirty-six clinical studies with 15 adhesive/restorative systems for which µTBS data were also available were included in the statistical analysis. In general 3-step and 2-step etch-and-rinse systems showed higher bond strength values than the 2-step/3-step self-etching systems, which, however, produced higher values than the 1-step self-etching and the resin modified glass ionomer systems. Prolonged water storage of specimens resulted in a significant decrease of the mean bond strength values in 5 adhesive systems (Wilcoxon, p<0.05). There was a significant correlation between µTBS values both after 8h and 6 months of storage and marginal discoloration (r=0.54 and r=0.67, respectively). However, the same correlation was not found between µTBS values and the retention rate, clinical index or marginal integrity. SIGNIFICANCE: As µTBS data of adhesive systems, especially after water storage for 6 months, showed a good correlation with marginal discoloration in short-term clinical Class V restorations, longitudinal clinical trials should explore whether early marginal staining is predictive for future retention loss in non-carious cervical restorations.