On modifications to the long-term survival mixture model in the presence of competing risks

A mixture model for long-term survivors has been adopted in various fields such as biostatistics and criminology where some individuals may never experience the type of failure under study. It is directly applicable in situations where the only information available from follow-up on individuals who will never experience this type of failure is in the form of censored observations. In this paper, we consider a modification to the model so that it still applies in the case where during the follow-up period it becomes known that an individual will never experience failure from the cause of interest. Unless a model allows for this additional information, a consistent survival analysis will not be obtained. A partial maximum likelihood (ML) approach is proposed that preserves the simplicity of the long-term survival mixture model and provides consistent estimators of the quantities of interest. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the efficiency of the partial ML approach relative to the full ML approach for survival in the presence of competing risks.

Computational binding assays of antigenic peptides

Computer models can be combined with laboratory experiments for the efficient determination of (i) peptides that bind MHC molecules and (ii) T-cell epitopes. For maximum benefit, the use of computer models must be treated as experiments analogous to standard laboratory procedures. This requires the definition of standards and experimental protocols for model application. We describe the requirements for validation and assessment of computer models. The utility of combining accurate predictions with a limited number of laboratory experiments is illustrated by practical examples. These include the identification of T-cell epitopes from IDDM-, melanoma- and malaria-related antigens by combining computational and conventional laboratory assays. The success rate in determining antigenic peptides, each in the context of a specific HLA molecule, ranged from 27 to 71%, while the natural prevalence of MHC-binding peptides is 0.1-5%.

Adaptation of sorghum: characterisation of genotypic flowering responses to temperature and photoperiod

Sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] is an important cereal crop grown in a wide range of tropical and temperate environments. This study was conducted to characterise the photothermal flowering responses of sorghum genotypes and to examine relationships between photothermal characteristics and environment of origin in order to better understand the phenological basis of adaptation to environment in sorghum. Twenty-four germplasm accessions and one hybrid from 24 major sorghum-growing areas were grown in a wide range of environments varying in temperature and photoperiod in India, Kenya and Mall between 1992 and 1995. Times from sowing to flowering (f) were recorded, and the responsiveness of 1/f to temperature and photoperiod was quantified using photothermal models. Times from sowing to flowering were accurately predicted in a wide range of environments using a multiplicative rate photothermal model. Significant variation in the minimum time to flower (F-m) and photoperiod sensitivity (critical photoperiod, P-c, and photoperiod-sensitivity slope, P-s) was observed among the genotypes; in contrast there was little variation in base temperature (Tb) Adaptation of sorghum to the diverse environments in which it is grown was largely determined by photoperiod sensitivity and minimum time to flower; photoperiod sensitivity determines bread adaptation to latitude (daylength), while variation in the minimum time to flower determines specific adaptation within smaller ranges of latitude, e.g. within the humid and sub-humid tropics.

Trends in the incidence, severity, and short-term outcome of stroke in Perth, Western Australia

Background and Purpose-This report describes trends in the key indices of cerebrovascular disease over 6 years from the end of the 1980s in a geographically defined segment of the city of Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Identical methods were used to find and assess all cases of suspected stroke in a population of approximately 134 000 residents in a triangular area of the northern suburbs of Perth. Case fatality was measured as vital status at 28 days after the onset of symptoms. Data for first-ever strokes and for all strokes for equivalent periods of 12 months in 1989-1990 and 1995-1996 were compared by age-standardized rates and proportions and Poisson regression. Results-There were 355 strokes in 328 patients and 251 first-ever strokes (71%) for 1989-1990 and 290 events in 281 patients and 213 first-ever strokes (73%) for 1995-1996. In Poisson models including age and period, overall trends in the incidence of both first-ever strokes (rate ratio = 0.75; 95% confidence limits, 0.63, 0.90) and all strokes (rate ratio = 0.73; 95% confidence limits, 0.62, 0.85) were obviously significant, but only the changes in men were independently significant. Case fatality did not change, and the balance between hemorrhagic and occlusive strokes in 1995-1996 was almost indistinguishable from that observed in 1989-1990. Conclusions-Our results, which are the only longitudinal population-based data available for Australia for key indices of stroke, suggest that it is a change in the frequency of stroke, rather than its outcome, that is chiefly responsible nationally for the fall in mortality from cerebrovascular disease.

Comparison of coherent and weakly incoherent transport models for the interlayer magnetoresistance of layered Fermi liquids

The interlayer magnetoresistance of layered metals in a tilted magnetic field is calculated for two distinct models for the interlayer transport. The first model involves coherent interlayer transport, and makes use of results of semiclassical or Bloch-Boltzmann transport theory. The second model involves weakly incoherent interlayer transport where the electron is scattered many times within a layer before tunneling into the next layer. The results are relevant to the interpretation of experiments on angular-dependent magnetoresistance oscillations (AMRO) in quasi-one- and quasi-two-dimensional organic metals. We find that the dependence of the magnetoresistance on the direction of the magnetic field is identical for both models except when the field is almost parallel to the layers. An important implication of this result is that a three-dimensional Fermi surface is not necessary for the observation of the Yamaji and Danner oscillations seen in quasi-two- and quasi-one-dimensional metals, respectively. A universal expression is given for the dependence of the resistance at AMRO maxima and minima on the magnetic field and scattering time (and thus the temperature). We point out three distinctive features of coherent interlayer transport: (i) a beat frequency in the magnetic oscillations of quasi-two-dimensional systems, (ii) a peak in the angular-dependent magnetoresistance when the field is sufficiently large and parallel to the layers, and (iii) a crossover from a linear to a quadratic field dependence for the magnetoresistance when the field is parallel to the layers. Properties (i) and (ii) are compared with published experimental data for a range of quasi-two-dimensional organic metals. [S0163-1829(99)02236-5].

Polymerization of diglycidyl ether of bisphenol A/diaminodiphenyl sulfone epoxy resins using radio frequency fields

Curing of diglycidyl ether of bisphenol A/diaminodiphenyl sulfone (DGEBA/DDS) epoxy resin has been effected by heating with radio frequency (RF) radiation at frequencies of 30-99 MHz. The epoxy resins can be cured rapidly at low RF power levels. Comparison of the kinetics of the RF curing with thermal curing while maintaining the same curing temperature revealed no differences. Previous differences in rates of thermal and microwave curing are believed to be due to lack of temperature control during microwave curing. For RF curing,the rate of cure, at constant power level, increases at lower RF frequency, thus emphasizing one of the principal advantages of RF curing over microwave curing. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Thermal and radiation curing of phenylethynyl terminated macromers

The thermal and gamma-irradiation induced curing of two phenylethynyl terminated composite resin systems, DFB/BPF and PETI5A, was investigated. Thermal curing of these matrix resin samples was performed at a temperature of 360 degrees C, gamma irradiation of the samples was conducted at 300 degrees C at a dose rate of 2.2 kGy h(-1). The reaction and subsequent loss of ethynyl groups in the resins for both cure methods was demonstrated by observing the decrease of the 2215 cm(-1) peak in the Raman spectra of the resins. Fully cured resin samples were found to have glass transition temperatures of 244-246 degrees C and 278-280 degrees C for DFB/BPF and PETI5A respectively. Similar relationships between T-g and fractional conversion were observed in both resins. The apparent polymerization rate, R-p, for thermal cure at 360 degrees C, was found to be 4.79 x 10(-2)% s(-1) in PETI5A and 3.22 x 10(-2)% s(-1) in DFB/BPF. Catastrophic degradation under nitrogen was observed to commence near 450 degrees C and 530 degrees C, with 5% weight losses occurring at 455 degrees C and 540 degrees C for DFB/BPF and PETI5A respectively. Gamma radiation induced cure at 300 degrees C was shown to be feasible, with full cure being reached with doses of 40 kGy for DFB/BPF and 100 kGy for PETI5A.

Increased ovulation rate in Merino ewes immunized against small synthetic peptide fragments of the inhibin alpha subunit

Four experiments were carried out in Merino ewes during a period of 4 years to determine the long-term effects of immunization against different synthetic peptides mimicking the amine terminal of the or subunit of porcine inhibin. Peptides were conjugated to human serum albumin and 100-200 mu g emulsified in Freund's complete adjuvant for the primary immunization. Usually two booster injections were given at monthly intervals with 50-100 mu g conjugated peptide using either incomplete Freund's adjuvant or Montanide : Marcel. In some experiments a further immunization was carried in the next year. Blood samples were taken 10 days after each immunization, during the luteal phase, for estimation of gonadotrophin concentrations and determination of inhibin antibody titres. One day after blood sampling cloprostenol was used to induce luteolysis and laparoscopy was performed in the subsequent oestrous cycle. Immunization of ewes with synthetic peptides 1-32, 1-26, 7-26 and 8-30 resulted in large increases in the ovulation rate (OR). An approximately two-fold increase in OR was observed following the first booster immunization with these peptides and a three- to five-fold increase after the second booster immunization. Immunization with these large peptides resulted in a sustained increase in OR for a period of at least 1 year after the second booster immunization. Of the shorter peptides, peptides 10-26 and 13-26 gave a reasonable ovulatory response, although it was more difficult to obtain a response with peptides 1-16, 8-22, 13-25, 8-19 and 10-19; peptides 7-13 and 1-6 gave no response (but were examined for one breeding season only). The smaller peptides led to lower inhibin antibody titres that were not necessarily associated with increased follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) or OR. More intensive blood sampling in one experiment showed that following primary immunization against peptide 1-32 there was a transient increase in plasma FSH which did not lead to an increased OR. Moreover, a prolonged period of raised FSH after the first booster was significantly correlated with increased OR. In these animals antibody titres were only slightly increased after primary immunization, but after the first booster immunization higher titres were observed that were significantly correlated with trough FSH values and the subsequent OR. These results are interpreted as showing that (1) to obtain an increase in OR peptides 1-32, 1-26 and 7-26 are suitable as immunogens; (2) smaller peptides are less reliable, often require multiple injections, and the response may be delayed; and (3) an extended period of raised plasma FSH is needed to give a large ovulatory response.

Approach to designing rotating drum bioreactors for solid-state fermentation on the basis of dimensionless design factors

The development of large-scale solid-stale fermentation (SSF) processes is hampered by the lack of simple tools for the design of SSF bioreactors. The use of semifundamental mathematical models to design and operate SSF bioreactors can be complex. In this work, dimensionless design factors are used to predict the effects of scale and of operational variables on the performance of rotating drum bioreactors. The dimensionless design factor (DDF) is a ratio of the rate of heat generation to the rate of heat removal at the time of peak heat production. It can be used to predict maximum temperatures reached within the substrate bed for given operational variables. Alternatively, given the maximum temperature that can be tolerated during the fermentation, it can be used to explore the combinations of operating variables that prevent that temperature from being exceeded. Comparison of the predictions of the DDF approach with literature data for operation of rotating drums suggests that the DDF is a useful tool. The DDF approach was used to explore the consequences of three scale-up strategies on the required air flow rates and maximum temperatures achieved in the substrate bed as the bioreactor size was increased on the basis of geometric similarity. The first of these strategies was to maintain the superficial flow rate of the process air through the drum constant. The second was to maintain the ratio of volumes of air per volume of bioreactor constant. The third strategy was to adjust the air flow rate with increase in scale in such a manner as to maintain constant the maximum temperature attained in the substrate bed during the fermentation. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Subgroup relations: A comparison of mutual intergroup differentiation and common ingroup identity models of prejudice reduction

Two studies examined relations between groups (humanities and math-science students) that implicitly or explicitly share a common superordinate category (university student). In Experiment 1, 178 participants performed a noninteractive decision-making task during which category salience was manipulated in a 2 (superordinate category salience) x 2 (subordinate category salience) between-groups design. Consistent with the mutual intergroup differentiation model, participants for whom both categories were salient exhibited the lowest levels of bias, whereas bias was strongest when the superordinate category alone was made salient. This pattern of results was replicated in Experiment 2 (N = 135). In addition, Experiment 2 demonstrated that members of subgroups that are nested within a superordinate category are more sensitive to how the superordinate category is represented than are members of subgroups that extend beyond the boundaries of the superordinate category.

Between-year fluctuations in schizophrenia birth rate and associations with the Southern Oscillation Index, cloud cover and sunshine

Our group have recently proposed that low prenatal vitamin D may be a risk-modifying factor for schizophrenia. Climate variability impacts on vitamin D levels in a population via fluctuations in the amount of available UV radiation. In order to explore this hypothesis, we examined fluctuations in the birthrates for people with schizophrenia born between 1920 and 1967 and three sets of variables strongly associated with UV radiation. These included: (a) the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a marker of El Nino which is the most prominent meteorological factor that influences Queensland weather: (b) measures of cloud cover and (c) measures of sunshine. Schizophrenia births were extracted from the Queensland Mental Health register and corrected for background population birth rates. Schizophrenia birth rates had several apparently non-random features in common with the SO1. The prominent SO1 fluctuation event that occurred between 1937 and 1943 is congruent with the most prominent fluctuation in schizophrenia birth rates. The relatively flat profile of SOI activity between 1927 and 1936 also corresponds to the flattest period in the schizophrenia time series. Both time series have prominent oscillations in the 3 ~, year range between 1946 and 1960. Significant associations between schizophrenia birth rates and measures of both sunshine and cloud cover were identified,and all three time series shared periodicity in the 3-4 year range. The analyses suggest that the risk of schizophrenia is higher for those born during times of increased cloud cover,reduced sunshine and positive SO1. These ecological analyses provide initial support for the vitamin D hypothesis, however alternative non-genetic candidate exposures also need to be considered. Other sites with year-to-year fluctuations in cloud cover and sunshine should examine patterns of association between these climate variables and schizophrenia birth rates. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Incorporating phase retardation effects into radiofrequency resonator models: application to magnetic resonance microscopy

A method is presented for including path propagation effects into models of radiofrequency resonators for use in magnetic resonance imaging. The method is based on the use of Helmholtz retarded potentials and extends our previous work on current density models of resonators based on novel inverse finite Hilbert transform solutions to the requisite integral equations. Radiofrequency phase retardation effects are most pronounced at high field strengths (frequencies) as are static field perturbations due to the magnetic materials in the resonators themselves. Both of these effects are investigated and a novel resonator structure presented for use in magnetic resonance microscopy.

Empirical catchment-wide rainfall erosivity models for two rivers in the humid tropics of Australia

The concept of rainfall erosivity is extended to the estimation of catchment sediment yield and its variation over time. Five different formulations of rainfall erosivity indices, using annual, monthly and daily rainfall data, are proposed and tested on two catchments in the humid tropics of Australia. Rainfall erosivity indices, using simple power functions of annual and daily rainfall amounts, were found to be adequate in describing the interannual and seasonal variation of catchment sediment yield. The parameter values of these rainfall erosivity indices for catchment sediment yield are broadly similar to those for rainfall erosivity models in relation to the R-factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation.

Modeling of hepatic elimination and organ distribution kinetics with the extended convection-dispersion model

The conventional convection-dispersion (also called axial dispersion) model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. An extended form of the convection-dispersion model has been developed to adequately describe the outflow concentration-time profiles for vascular markers at both short and long times after bolus injections into perfused livers. The model, based on flux concentration and a convolution of catheters and large vessels, assumes that solute elimination in hepatocytes follows either fast distribution into or radial diffusion in hepatocytes. The model includes a secondary vascular compartment, postulated to be interconnecting sinusoids. Analysis of the mean hepatic transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) of solutes with extraction showed that the discrepancy between the predictions of MTT and CV2 for the extended and conventional models are essentially identical irrespective of the magnitude of rate constants representing permeability, volume, and clearance parameters, providing that there is significant hepatic extraction. In conclusion, the application of a newly developed extended convection-dispersion model has shown that the unweighted conventional convection-dispersion model can be used to describe the disposition of extracted solutes and, in particular, to estimate hepatic availability and clearance in booth experimental and clinical situations.