Evaluación de la escorrentía media anual obtenida por fórmulas climáticas y modelos regionales de clima

En regiones en las que no se dispone de un modelo hidrológico correctamente calibrado para estimar la escorrentía, se puede recurrir a la utilización de la escorrentía directa simulada por los modelos climáticos o a la escorrentía calculada a partir de fórmulas climatológicas que emplean variables climáticas básicas como la precipitación, temperatura y radiación solar, simuladas por los modelos regionales de clima (MRC). El presente trabajo compara el comportamiento de la escorrentía directa obtenida por 10 simulaciones de los MRC del proyecto europeo PRUDENCE y la escorrentía media anual calculada a partir de la aplicación de cinco fórmulas climatológicas (Schreiber, Ol’dekop, Budyko, Turc-Pike, Zhang et al.) basadas en el índice de aridez, definido por la relación entre la evapotranspiración potencial y la precipitación. Series temporales mensuales de escorrentía, precipitación, temperatura y radiación solar son generadas a partir de las simulaciones de los MRC en 338 cuencas de España que cubren la totalidad del territorio peninsular, bajo condiciones de clima actual (periodo 1961-1990). La evapotranspiración potencial se obtiene usando el método presentado por Hargreaves. Estas formas funcionales estiman la relación entre la evapotranspiración actual y la precipitación y a través de un balance hídrico se calculan los valores de escorrentía anual. El comportamiento general de las variables climáticas simuladas por los MRC se caracteriza por presentar menor sesgo para precipitación y temperatura que para escorrentía. Empleando estadísticos de comparación se analiza la capacidad que tiene la escorrentía directa y la escorrentía anual calculada a partir de las fórmulas climáticas para reproducir los valores observados de escorrentía natural estimada por el modelo hidrológico distribuido SIMPA en las cuencas españolas. En total se generaron 10 series mensuales de escorrentía directa y 50 series de escorrentía anual basadas en el índice de aridez (cada fórmula climática aplicada a las 10 simulaciones de los MRC). Los resultados muestran que la fórmula de Schreiber produce la mejor aproximación a los valores observados y por tanto minimiza el sesgo predominante en la variable escorrentía. Adicionalmente, estos resultados se validan con las capas de escorrentía media anual de alta resolución proporcionada por la UNH/GRDC (University of New Hampshire/Global Runoff Data Centre) que preservan la exactitud de las medidas de las aportaciones observadas en las principales estaciones hidrológicas de todo el mundo, y que en la actualidad es el “mejor estimador” de la escorrentía terrestre sobre grandes extensiones. En este caso, los resultados muestran también que la fórmula de Schreiber estima mejor los valores de escorrentía anual que la escorrentía directa simulada por MRC.

Resilience in Cloud Computing for Critical Systems. Resilience, Dependability, Reliability in the use of Cloud Computing in Critical Systems in Public Organizations.

La informática se está convirtiendo en la quinta utilidad (gas, agua, luz, teléfono) en parte debido al impacto de Cloud Computing en las mayorías de las organizaciones. Este uso de informática es usada por cada vez más tipos de sistemas, incluidos Sistemas Críticos. Esto tiene un impacto en la complejidad internad y la fiabilidad de los sistemas de la organización y los que se ofrecen a los clientes. Este trabajo investiga el uso de Cloud Computing por sistemas críticos, centrándose en las dependencias y especialmente en la fiabilidad de estos sistemas. Se han presentado algunos ejemplos de su uso, y aunque su utilización en sistemas críticos no está extendido, se presenta cual puede llegar a ser su impacto. El objetivo de este trabajo es primero definir un modelo que pueda representar de una forma cuantitativa las interdependencias en fiabilidad y interdependencia para las organizaciones que utilicen estos sistemas, y aplicar este modelo en un sistema crítico del campo de sanidad y mostrar sus resultados. Los conceptos de “macro-dependability” y “micro-dependability” son introducidos en el modelo para la definición de interdependencia y para analizar la fiabilidad de sistemas que dependen de otros sistemas. ABSTRACT With the increasing utilization of Internet services and cloud computing by most organizations (both private and public), it is clear that computing is becoming the 5th utility (along with water, electricity, telephony and gas). These technologies are used for almost all types of systems, and the number is increasing, including Critical Infrastructure systems. Even if Critical Infrastructure systems appear not to rely directly on cloud services, there may be hidden inter-dependencies. This is true even for private cloud computing, which seems more secure and reliable. The critical systems can began in some cases with a clear and simple design, but evolved as described by Egan to "rafted" networks. Because they are usually controlled by one or few organizations, even when they are complex systems, their dependencies can be understood. The organization oversees and manages changes. These CI systems have been affected by the introduction of new ICT models like global communications, PCs and the Internet. Even virtualization took more time to be adopted by Critical systems, due to their strategic nature, but once that these technologies have been proven in other areas, at the end they are adopted as well, for different reasons such as costs. A new technology model is happening now based on some previous technologies (virtualization, distributing and utility computing, web and software services) that are offered in new ways and is called cloud computing. The organizations are migrating more services to the cloud; this will have impact in their internal complexity and in the reliability of the systems they are offering to the organization itself and their clients. Not always this added complexity and associated risks to their reliability are seen. As well, when two or more CI systems are interacting, the risks of one can affect the rest, sharing the risks. This work investigates the use of cloud computing by critical systems, and is focused in the dependencies and reliability of these systems. Some examples are presented together with the associated risks. A framework is introduced for analysing the dependability and resilience of a system that relies on cloud services and how to improve them. As part of the framework, the concepts of micro and macro dependability are introduced to explain the internal and external dependability on services supplied by an external cloud. A pharmacovigilance model system has been used for framework validation.

Modelización e integración de sistemas de adquisición de datos inteligentes en sistemas de instrumentación para dispositivos de fusión

La obtención de energía a partir de la fusión nuclear por confinamiento magnético del plasma, es uno de los principales objetivos dentro de la comunidad científica dedicada a la energía nuclear. Desde la construcción del primer dispositivo de fusión, hasta la actualidad, se han llevado a cabo multitud de experimentos, que hoy en día, gran parte de ellos dan soporte al proyecto International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER). El principal problema al que se enfrenta ITER, se basa en la monitorización y el control del plasma. Gracias a las nuevas tecnologías, los sistemas de instrumentación y control permiten acercarse más a la solución del problema, pero a su vez, es más complicado estandarizar los sistemas de adquisición de datos que se usan, no solo en ITER, sino en otros proyectos de igual complejidad. Desarrollar nuevas implementaciones hardware y software bajo los requisitos de los diagnósticos definidos por los científicos, supone una gran inversión de tiempo, retrasando la ejecución de nuevos experimentos. Por ello, la solución que plantea esta tesis, consiste en la definición de una metodología de diseño que permite implementar sistemas de adquisición de datos inteligentes y su fácil integración en entornos de fusión para la implementación de diagnósticos. Esta metodología requiere del uso de los dispositivos Reconfigurable Input/Output (RIO) y Flexible RIO (FlexRIO), que son sistemas embebidos basados en tecnología Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). Para completar la metodología de diseño, estos dispositivos van a ser soportados por un software basado en EPICS Device Support utilizando la tecnología EPICS software asynDriver. Esta metodología se ha evaluado implementando prototipos para los controladores rápidos de planta de ITER, tanto para casos prácticos de ámbito general como adquisición de datos e imágenes, como para casos concretos como el diagnóstico del fission chamber, implementando pre-procesado en tiempo real. Además de casos prácticos, esta metodología se ha utilizado para implementar casos reales, como el Ion Source Hydrogen Positive (ISHP), desarrollada por el European Spallation Source (ESS Bilbao) y la Universidad del País Vasco. Finalmente, atendiendo a las necesidades que los experimentos en los entornos de fusión requieren, se ha diseñado un mecanismo mediante el cual los sistemas de adquisición de datos, que pueden ser implementados mediante la metodología de diseño propuesta, pueden integrar un reloj hardware capaz de sincronizarse con el protocolo IEEE1588-V2, permitiendo a estos, obtener los TimeStamps de las muestras adquiridas con una exactitud y precisión de decenas de nanosegundos y realizar streaming de datos con TimeStamps. ABSTRACT Fusion energy reaching by means of nuclear fusion plasma confinement is one of the main goals inside nuclear energy scientific community. Since the first fusion device was built, many experiments have been carried out and now, most of them give support to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project. The main difficulty that ITER has to overcome is the plasma monitoring and control. Due to new technologies, the instrumentation and control systems allow an approaching to the solution, but in turn, the standardization of the used data acquisition systems, not only in ITER but also in other similar projects, is more complex. To develop new hardware and software implementations under scientific diagnostics requirements, entail time costs, delaying new experiments execution. Thus, this thesis presents a solution that consists in a design methodology definition, that permits the implementation of intelligent data acquisition systems and their easy integration into fusion environments for diagnostic purposes. This methodology requires the use of Reconfigurable Input/Output (RIO) and Flexible RIO (FlexRIO) devices, based on Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) embedded technology. In order to complete the design methodology, these devices are going to be supported by an EPICS Device Support software, using asynDriver technology. This methodology has been evaluated implementing ITER PXIe fast controllers prototypes, as well as data and image acquisition, so as for concrete solutions like the fission chamber diagnostic use case, using real time preprocessing. Besides of these prototypes solutions, this methodology has been applied for the implementation of real experiments like the Ion Source Hydrogen Positive (ISHP), developed by the European Spallation Source and the Basque country University. Finally, a hardware mechanism has been designed to integrate a hardware clock into RIO/FlexRIO devices, to get synchronization with the IEEE1588-V2 precision time protocol. This implementation permits to data acquisition systems implemented under the defined methodology, to timestamp all data acquired with nanoseconds accuracy, permitting high throughput timestamped data streaming.

Analysis of advanced European nuclear fuel cycle scenarios including transmutation and economic estimates

Four European fuel cycle scenarios involving transmutation options (in coherence with PATEROS and CPESFR EU projects) have been addressed from a point of view of resources utilization and economic estimates. Scenarios include: (i) the current fleet using Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology and open fuel cycle, (ii) full replacement of the initial fleet with Fast Reactors (FR) burning U?Pu MOX fuel, (iii) closed fuel cycle with Minor Actinide (MA) transmutation in a fraction of the FR fleet, and (iv) closed fuel cycle with MA transmutation in dedicated Accelerator Driven Systems (ADS). All scenarios consider an intermediate period of GEN-III+ LWR deployment and they extend for 200 years, looking for long term equilibrium mass flow achievement. The simulations were made using the TR_EVOL code, capable to assess the management of the nuclear mass streams in the scenario as well as economics for the estimation of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) and other costs. Results reveal that all scenarios are feasible according to nuclear resources demand (natural and depleted U, and Pu). Additionally, we have found as expected that the FR scenario reduces considerably the Pu inventory in repositories compared to the reference scenario. The elimination of the LWR MA legacy requires a maximum of 55% fraction (i.e., a peak value of 44 FR units) of the FR fleet dedicated to transmutation (MA in MOX fuel, homogeneous transmutation) or an average of 28 units of ADS plants (i.e., a peak value of 51 ADS units). Regarding the economic analysis, the main usefulness of the provided economic results is for relative comparison of scenarios and breakdown of LCOE contributors rather than provision of absolute values, as technological readiness levels are low for most of the advanced fuel cycle stages. The obtained estimations show an increase of LCOE ? averaged over the whole period ? with respect to the reference open cycle scenario of 20% for Pu management scenario and around 35% for both transmutation scenarios. The main contribution to LCOE is the capital costs of new facilities, quantified between 60% and 69% depending on the scenario. An uncertainty analysis is provided around assumed low and high values of processes and technologies.

Letter from William Croswell to George Richards, 1794 September 1

One-page letter from Croswell to George Richards, the Pastor of the Universal Society in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, requesting information about teaching opportunities in the area.

I. Sermons, 1709-1724

This series contains seventeen handwritten sermons composed by Nicholas Sever and delivered in the Boston area between 1709 and 1722. Following the completion of his Master's degree at Harvard in 1704, Sever preached in towns around New England including Haverhill in 1709, Dover, New Hampshire (where he was ordained in 1711 and remained until 1715), and in Cambridge as part of his duties as a Harvard Tutor between 1716 and 1728. During these years, Sever also filled in for ministers in nearby parishes. Sever's sermons reflect these engagements, and he occasionally noted the dates and locations where the sermons were delivered in the margin of the first page of the sermon.

1794, Catalogus eorum qui in Universitate Harvardiana, Cantabrigiae, in republica Massachusettensi, ab anno MDCXLII, ad annum MDCCXCIV. Alicujus gradû laureâ donati sunt.

Modern hardcover binding around original handsewn paper binding. Missing title page and first page of text. Key to abbreviations titled "Explination" on flyleaf with abbreviations for Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Long Island, New York, Martha's Vineyard, New Jersey, Pensylvania [sic], Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, West Indies, Great Britain, Episcopalian, and Baptist. Heavily annotated with residence locations. Asterisks added next to the names of alumni who died after the Catalogue's publication, generally in 1795. Also includes a tipped-in page at front of volume with the names of thirteen alumni of various classes from 1650 through 1756, in one hand, a note "Joseph Lovett was of Beverly, and a minister in a town of Connecticut the name of which I do not recollect. JW" in a different hand, and a final note "I believe there was a Lovett at Norwich" in the original hand.

Diary of John Page, 1757-1781

Manuscript volume. The first thirty-nine pages include diary entries from Page's years as an undergraduate student at Harvard College. Dated July 1757 through March 1761, entries includes short notes about daily activities. Topics covered include expenses, academics, clothing, and travel to and from Cambridge. Twenty-two pages covering 1764 through 1781 contain brief listings of items, generally foodstuffs, received from male and female Danville parishioners identified by name in Danville. The final twenty-six pages contain notes listing area deaths, as well as his own thoughts on topics such as "of light" and "jealousy." The concluding pages include rules "Concerning Grammar."

Notebook of Tristram Gilman, 1757-1761

The small volume holds the notebook of Tristram Gilman interleaved on unlined pages in a printed engagement calendar. The original leather cover accompanies the notebook, but is no longer attached. The inside covers of the original leather binding are filled with scribbled words and notes. The volume holds a variety of handwritten notes including account information, transcriptions of biblical passages and related observations, travel information, community news, weather, and astronomy. The volumes does not follow a chronological order, and instead seems to have been repurposed at various times.

Triennial Catalogue annotated by Jeremy Belknap, 1791

The collection holds a heavily interleaved 1791 Triennial Catalogue annotated, in part, by Jeremy Belknap. A note by Harvard Librarian John Langdon Sibley, on the verso of the flyleaf, indicates a second annotator: "It should be observed that this catalogue is in the handwriting of two persons, Dr. Belknap & probably interlineations & additions by Rev. Dr. [John] Eliot. The interlineing part should not be too confidently relied on for accuracy. J. L. Sibley, April 14, 1848." The volume contains biographical notes, newspaper clippings, excerpts from manuscript and printed sources such as New England's First Fruits, the manuscript memoirs of Charles Chauncey, and John Winthrop's Journal, and a 1795 letter from Isaac Mansfield. In the letter, Mansfield references an item he believed to be written by his grandfather, Ames Cheever (Harvard AB 1707), and briefly describes his grandfather. A list of election sermon orators with dates is also pasted into the inside back cover, along with an obituary of the Rev. John Wales (Harvard AB 1728) from the Boston Post-Boy, March 4, 1765.

Harvard Library bookplate collection, 1764-1960

This collection contains samples of bookplate labels that were pasted into books held in the libraries of Harvard University, dating from 1764 to 1960. The collection includes bookplates arranged chronologically and bookplates of the Harvard College Library and departmental libraries arranged alphabetically. The collection also contains correspondence related to bookplates, dating from 1918 to 1921, and a list of printed seals used in Harvard College Library. Some of the bookplates include handwritten inscriptions, while others are blank. There are six 18th century bookplates with inscriptions documenting gifts and bequests made following the 1764 fire that destroyed the bulk of Harvard's Library from Marblehead, Massachusetts, minister John Barnard (1681-1770; Harvard AB 1700); New Hampshire Governor Benning Wentworth (1696-1770; Harvard AB 1715); Portsmouth, New Hampshire, merchant Thomas Wibird (1706-1765; Harvard AB 1728); and merchant Thomas Lee (died 1787) of Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Justice of the peace day book, 1797-1816

Contains records of summons and judgements in various court cases, and fines paid.

Receipt book for legal services, 1798-1810

A receipt book containing fees charged for legal services of John Rowe who practiced in Gloucester, Massachusetts.