Modelos autoregressivos por limiares em séries de contagem

A modelação e análise de séries temporais de valores inteiros têm sido alvo de grande investigação e desenvolvimento nos últimos anos, com aplicações várias em diversas áreas da ciência. Nesta tese a atenção centrar-se-á no estudo na classe de modelos basedos no operador thinning binomial. Tendo como base o operador thinning binomial, esta tese focou-se na construção e estudo de modelos SETINAR(2; p(1); p(2)) e PSETINAR(2; 1; 1)T , modelos autorregressivos de valores inteiros com limiares autoinduzidos e dois regimes, admitindo que as inovações formam uma sucessão de variáveis independentes com distribuição de Poisson. Relativamente ao primeiro modelo analisado, o modelo SETINAR(2; p(1); p(2)), além do estudo das suas propriedades probabilísticas e de métodos, clássicos e bayesianos, para estimar os parâmetros, analisou-se a questão da seleção das ordens, no caso de elas serem desconhecidas. Com este objetivo consideraram-se algoritmos de Monte Carlo via cadeias de Markov, em particular o algoritmo Reversible Jump, abordando-se também o problema da seleção de modelos, usando metodologias clássica e bayesiana. Complementou-se a análise através de um estudo de simulação e uma aplicação a dois conjuntos de dados reais. O modelo PSETINAR(2; 1; 1)T proposto, é também um modelo autorregressivo com limiares autoinduzidos e dois regimes, de ordem unitária em cada um deles, mas apresentando uma estrutura periódica. Estudaram-se as suas propriedades probabilísticas, analisaram-se os problemas de inferência e predição de futuras observações e realizaram-se estudos de simulação.

O problema da árvore de suporte de custo mínimo com restrições de peso

Nesta tese abordam-se várias formulações e diferentes métodos para resolver o Problema da Árvore de Suporte de Custo Mínimo com Restrições de Peso (WMST – Weight-constrained Minimum Spanning Tree Problem). Este problema, com aplicações no desenho de redes de comunicações e telecomunicações, é um problema de Otimização Combinatória NP-difícil. O Problema WMST consiste em determinar, numa rede com custos e pesos associados às arestas, uma árvore de suporte de custo mínimo de tal forma que o seu peso total não exceda um dado limite especificado. Apresentam-se e comparam-se várias formulações para o problema. Uma delas é usada para desenvolver um procedimento com introdução de cortes baseado em separação e que se tornou bastante útil na obtenção de soluções para o problema. Tendo como propósito fortalecer as formulações apresentadas, introduzem-se novas classes de desigualdades válidas que foram adaptadas das conhecidas desigualdades de cobertura, desigualdades de cobertura estendida e desigualdades de cobertura levantada. As novas desigualdades incorporam a informação de dois conjuntos de soluções: o conjunto das árvores de suporte e o conjunto saco-mochila. Apresentam-se diversos algoritmos heurísticos de separação que nos permitem usar as desigualdades válidas propostas de forma eficiente. Com base na decomposição Lagrangeana, apresentam-se e comparam-se algoritmos simples, mas eficientes, que podem ser usados para calcular limites inferiores e superiores para o valor ótimo do WMST. Entre eles encontram-se dois novos algoritmos: um baseado na convexidade da função Lagrangeana e outro que faz uso da inclusão de desigualdades válidas. Com o objetivo de obter soluções aproximadas para o Problema WMST usam-se métodos heurísticos para encontrar uma solução inteira admissível. Os métodos heurísticos apresentados são baseados nas estratégias Feasibility Pump e Local Branching. Apresentam-se resultados computacionais usando todos os métodos apresentados. Os resultados mostram que os diferentes métodos apresentados são bastante eficientes para encontrar soluções para o Problema WMST.

Effects of environmental factors on the toxicity of pesticides to zebrafish embryos

During the last century mean global temperatures have been increasing. According to the predictions, the temperature change is expected to exceed 1.5ºC in this century and the warming is likely to continue. Freshwater ecosystems are among the most sensitive mainly due to changes in the hydrologic cycle and consequently changes in several physico-chemical parameters (e.g. pH, dissolved oxygen). Alterations in environmental parameters of freshwater systems are likely to affect distribution, morphology, physiology and richness of a wide range of species leading to important changes in ecosystem biodiversity and function. Moreover, they can also work as co-stressors in environments where organisms have already to cope with chemical contamination (such as pesticides), increasing the environmental risk due to potential interactions. Therefore, the objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of climate change related environmental parameters on the toxicity of pesticides to zebrafish embryos. The following environmental factors were studied: pH (3.0-12.0), dissolved oxygen level (0-8 mg/L) and UV radiation (0-500 mW/m2). The pesticides studied were the carbamate insecticide carbaryl and the benzimidazole fungicide carbendazim. Stressors were firstly tested separately in order to derive concentration- or intensity-response curves to further study the effects of binary combinations (environmental factors x pesticides) by applying mixture models. Characterization of zebrafish embryos response to environmental stress revealed that pH effects were fully established after 24 h of exposure and survival was only affected at pH values below 5 and above 10. Low oxygen levels also affected embryos development at concentrations below 4 mg/L (delay, heart rate decrease and edema), and at concentrations below 0.5 mg/L the survival was drastically reduced. Continuous exposure to UV radiation showed a strong time-dependent impact on embryos survival leading to 100% of mortality after 72 hours of exposure. The toxicity of pesticides carbaryl and carbendazim was characterized at several levels of biological organization including developmental, biochemical and behavioural allowing a mechanistic understanding of the effects and highlighting the usefulness of behavioural responses (locomotion) as a sensitive endpoint in ecotoxicology. Once the individual concentration response relationship of each stressor was established, a combined toxicity study was conducted to evaluate the effects of pH on the toxicity of carbaryl. We have shown that pH can modify the toxicity of the pesticide carbaryl. The conceptual model concentration addition allowed a precise prediction of the toxicity of the jointeffects of acid pH and carbaryl. Nevertheless, for alkaline condition both concepts failed in predicting the effects. Deviations to the model were however easy to explain as high pH values favour the hydrolysis of carbaryl with the consequent formation of the more toxic degradation product 1- naphtol. Although in the present study such explanatory process was easy to establish, for many other combinations the “interactive” nature is not so evident. In the context of the climate change few scenarios predict such increase in the pH of aquatic systems, however this was a first approach focused in the lethal effects only. In a second tier assessment effects at sublethal level would be sought and it is expectable that more subtle pH changes (more realistic in terms of climate changes scenarios) may have an effect at physiological and biochemical levels with possible long term consequences for the population fitness.

Beyond visual imagery: How modality-specific is enhanced mental imagery in synesthesia?

Synesthesia based in visual modalities has been associated with reports of vivid visual imagery. We extend this finding to consider whether other forms of synesthesia are also associated with enhanced imagery, and whether this enhancement reflects the modality of synesthesia. We used self‐report imagery measures across multiple sensory modalities, comparing synesthetes’ responses (with a variety of forms of synesthesia) to those of nonsynesthete matched controls. Synesthetes reported higher levels of visual, auditory, gustatory, olfactory and tactile imagery and a greater level of imagery use. Furthermore, their reported enhanced imagery is restricted to the modalities involved in the individual’s synesthesia. There was also a relationship between the number of forms of synesthesia an individual has, and the reported vividness of their imagery, highlighting the need for future research to consider the impact of multiple forms of synesthesia. We also recommend the use of behavioral measures to validate these self‐report findings.

Distress Tolerance among Students Referred for Treatment Following Violation of Campus Cannabis Use Policy: Relations to Use, Problems, and Motivation

Students referred to treatment after violating campus drug policies represent a high-risk group. Identification of factors related to these students’ cannabis use could inform prevention and treatment efforts. Distress tolerance (DT) is negatively related to substance-related behaviors and may be related to high-risk cannabis use vulnerability factors that can impact treatment outcome. Thus, the current study tested whether DT was related to cannabis use frequency, cannabis-related problems, and motivation to change cannabis use among 88 students referred for treatment after violating campus cannabis policies. DT was robustly, negatively related to cannabis use and related problems. DT was also significantly, negatively correlated with coping, conformity, and expansion motives. DT was directly and indirectly related to cannabis problems via coping (not conformity or expansion) motives. Motives did not mediate the relation of DT to cannabis use frequency. DT may be an important target in treatment with students who violate campus cannabis policies.

Motor delays in MDMA (ecstasy) exposed infants persist to 2years

Background Recreational use of 3,4 methylenedioxymethamphetamine (ecstasy, MDMA) is increasing worldwide. Its use by pregnant women causes concern due to potentially harmful effects on the developing fetus. MDMA, an indirect monoaminergic agonist and reuptake inhibitor, affects the serotonin and dopamine systems. Preclinical studies of fetal exposure demonstrate effects on learning, motor behavior, and memory. In the first human studies, we found prenatal MDMA exposure related to poorer motor development in the first year of life. In the present study we assessed the effects of prenatal exposure to MDMA on the trajectory of child development through 2 years of age. We hypothesized that exposure would be associated with poorer mental and motor outcomes. Materials and Methods The DAISY (Drugs and Infancy Study, 2003–2008) employed a prospective longitudinal cohort design to assess recreational drug use during pregnancy and child outcomes in the United Kingdom. Examiners masked to drug exposures followed infants from birth to 4, 12, 18, and 24 months of age. MDMA, cocaine, alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and other drugs were quantified through a standardized clinical interview. The Bayley Scales (III) of Mental (MDI) and Motor (PDI) Development and the Behavior Rating Scales (BRS) were primary outcome measures. Statistical analyses included a repeated measures mixed model approach controlling for multiple confounders. Results Participants were pregnant women volunteers, primarily white, of middle class socioeconomic status, average IQ, with some college education, in stable partner relationships. Of 96 women enrolled, children of 93 had at least one follow-up assessment and 81 (87%) had ≥ two assessments. Heavier MDMA exposure (M = 1.3 ± 1.4 tablets per week) predicted lower PDI (p < .002), and poorer BRS motor quality from 4 to 24 months of age, but did not affect MDI, orientation, or emotional regulation. Children with heavier exposure were twice as likely to demonstrate poorer motor quality as lighter and non-exposed children (O.R. = 2.2, 95%, CI = 1.02–4.70, p < .05). Discussion Infants whose mothers reported heavier MDMA use during pregnancy had motor delays from 4 months to two years of age that were not attributable to other drug or lifestyle factors. Women of child bearing age should be cautioned about the use of MDMA and MDMA-exposed infants should be screened for motor delays and possible intervention.

Organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts in recent sediments from the Guadiana river estuary, South-East Portugal

Dissertação de Mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente, Universidade do Algarve, 2007

Follow up on the local implementation of an MPA in the small fishing village of San Felipe, Yucatan

Dissertação mest., Biologia Marinha, Universidade do Algarve, 2007

Calibração e validação do modelo espectral de previsão da agitação marítima SWAN em zonas costeiras

Dissertação mest., Oceanografia, Universidade do Algarve, 2009

Fuentes paremiológicas francesas y españolas en la primera mitad del sglo XIX

La literatura oral está despertando un interés cada vez mayor, lo que se refleja, por ejemplo, en el aumento de los coloquios sobre esta materia o en la creación de revistas dedicadas a estudiarla; actos muy loables, pues contribuyen a fomentar este tipo de investigación e ir cubriendo así las lagunas existentes en el estudio de las manifestaciones lingüísticas caracterizadas por su oralidad, como sucede con los refranes, los proverbios, las sentencias, las máximas.

Travestismos e intertextualidades em Orlando de Virginia Woolf e na obra homónima de Sally Potter

Dissertação de mest., Literatura Comparada, Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas, Universidade do Algarve, 2005

A exploração do quartzito na faixa atlântica peninsular no final do Plistocénico

Tese de dout., Arqueologia (Arqueologia Pré-histórica), Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Univ. do Algarve, 2010

A integração dos assentamentos rurais tradicionais nas regiões urbanas: o exemplo do Algarve Central no Sul de Portugal

Versão em português do artigo submetido com o título “Towards Integrating Rural Vernacular Settlements in Urban Regions: A study of Algarve, Portugal” ao ISVS e-­‐journal em Abril de 2011.

Museus, cultura e turismo: uma visão sistémica de poder

O artigo faz uma aplicação de métodos sistémicos juridicos e organizacionais aos museus e a cultura, entendidos enquanto organizações turísticas e conjuntos complexos, concluindo pela sua consideração como fortes estruturas organizacionais de apreensão de poder regulatório do Estado.

Contributo para o estudo dos sacrários Barrocos em Portugal

Dissertação de mest., História da Arte, Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Univ. do Algarve, 2012