Linking risk management to strategic controls:a case study of Tesco plc

Definitions and perceptions of the role and styles of risk management, and performance management/strategic control systems have evolved over time, but it can be argued that risk management is primarily concerned with ensuring the achievement of strategic objectives. This paper shows the extent of overlap between a broad-based view of risk management, namely Enterprise Risk Management (ERM), and the balanced scorecard, which is a widely used strategic control system. A case study of one of the UK's largest retailers, Tesco plc, is used to show how ERM can be introduced as part of an existing strategic control system. The case demonstrates that, despite some differences in lines of communications, the strategic controls and risk controls can be used to achieve a common objective. Adoption of such an integrated approach, however, has implications for the profile of risk and the overall risk culture within an organisation.

Developing a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental-health clinical risk expertise

This paper explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool [1] is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. This paper details how the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. These semantics are formalised by a detailed specification for an XML structure used to represent the expertise. The component parts were then mapped to equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements. © Springer-Verlag 2010.

Defining an OWL ontology that could be used to integrate mental-health risk information within a decision support system

In the field of mental health risk assessment, there is no standardisation between the data used in different systems. As a first step towards the possible interchange of data between assessment tools, an ontology has been constructed for a particular one, GRiST (Galatean Risk Screening Tool). We briefly introduce GRiST and its data structures, then describe the ontology and the benefits that have already been realised from the construction process. For example, the ontology has been used to check the consistency of the various trees used in the model. We then consider potential uses in integration of data from other sources. © 2009 IEEE.

Psychological cue use and implications for a clinical decision support system

Effective clinical decision making depends upon identifying possible outcomes for a patient, selecting relevant cues, and processing the cues to arrive at accurate judgements of each outcome's probability of occurrence. These activities can be considered as classification tasks. This paper describes a new model of psychological classification that explains how people use cues to determine class or outcome likelihoods. It proposes that clinicians respond to conditional probabilities of outcomes given cues and that these probabilities compete with each other for influence on classification. The model explains why people appear to respond to base rates inappropriately, thereby overestimating the occurrence of rare categories, and a clinical example is provided for predicting suicide risk. The model makes an effective representation for expert clinical judgements and its psychological validity enables it to generate explanations in a form that is comprehensible to clinicians. It is a strong candidate for incorporation within a decision support system for mental-health risk assessment, where it can link with statistical and pattern recognition tools applied to a database of patients. The symbiotic combination of empirical evidence and clinical expertise can provide an important web-based resource for risk assessment, including multi-disciplinary education and training. © 2002 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

Extreme weather events and construction SMEs:vulnerability, impacts and responses

Purpose – The UK experienced a number of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs) during recent years and a significant number of businesses were affected as a result. With the intensity and frequency of weather extremes predicted in the future, enhancing the resilience of businesses, especially of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), who are considered as highly vulnerable, has become a necessity. However, little research has been undertaken on how construction SMEs respond to the risk of EWEs. In seeking to help address this dearth of research, this investigation sought to identify how construction SMEs were being affected by EWEs and the coping strategies being used. Design/methodology/approach – A mixed methods research design was adopted to elicit information from construction SMEs, involving a questionnaire survey and case study approach. Findings – Results indicate a lack of coping strategies among the construction SMEs studied. Where the coping strategies have been implemented, these were found to be extensions of their existing risk management strategies rather than radical measures specifically addressing EWEs. Research limitations/implications – The exploratory survey focused on the Greater London area and was limited to a relatively small sample size. This limitation is overcome by conducting detailed case studies utilising two SMEs whose projects were located in EWE prone localities. The mixed method research design adopted benefits the research by presenting more robust findings. Practical implications – A better way of integrating the potential of EWEs into the initial project planning stage is required by the SMEs. This could possibly be achieved through a better risk assessment model supported by better EWE prediction data. Originality/value – The paper provides an original contribution towards the overarching agenda of resilience of SMEs and policy making in the area of EWE risk management. It informs both policy makers and practitioners on issues of planning and preparedness against EWEs.

Emerging of human factor in risk analysis of home care service

Risk management in healthcare represents a group of various complex actions, implemented to improve the quality of healthcare services and guarantee the patients safety. Risks cannot be eliminated, but it can be controlled with different risk assessment methods derived from industrial applications and among these the Failure Mode Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) is a largely used methodology. The main purpose of this work is the analysis of failure modes of the Home Care (HC) service provided by local healthcare unit of Naples (ASL NA1) to focus attention on human and non human factors according to the organization framework selected by WHO. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014.

Does Lost Time Cost You Money and Create High Risk?

The aim of the case study is to express the delayed repair time impact on the revenues and profit in numbers with the example of the outage of power plant units. Main steps of risk assessment: • creating project plan suitable for risk assessment • identification of the risk factors for each project activities • scenario-analysis based evaluation of risk factors • selection of the critical risk factors based on the results of quantitative risk analysis • formulating risk response actions for the critical risks • running Monte-Carlo simulation [1] using the results of scenario-analysis • building up a macro which creates the connection among the results of the risk assessment, the production plan and the business plan.

Coronary heart disease risk factors among tri-ethnic students at Florida International University

The present study identified and compared Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) risk factors quantified as “CHD risk point standards” (CHDRPS) among tri-ethnic (White non-Hispanic [WNH], Hispanic [H], and Black non-Hispanic [BNH]) college students. All 300 tri-ethnic subjects completed the Cardiovascular Risk Assessment Instruments and had blood pressure readings recorded on three occasions. The Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) was used to measure body composition. Students' knowledge of CHD risk factors was also measured. In addition, a 15 ml fasting blood sample was collected from 180 subjects and blood lipids and Homocysteine (tHcy) levels were measured. Data were analyzed by gender and ethnicity using one-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) with Bonferroni's pairwise mean comparison procedure, Pearson correlation, and Chi-square test with follow-up Bonferroni's Chi-square tests. ^ The mean score of CHDRPS for all subjects was 19.15 ± 6.79. Assigned to the CHD risk category, college students were below-average risk of developing CHD. Males scored significantly (p < 0.013) higher for CHD risk than females, and BNHs scored significantly (p < 0.033) higher than WNHs. High consumption of dietary fat saturated fat and cholesterol resulted in a high CHDRPS among H males and females and WNH females. High alcohol consumption resulted in a high CHDRPS among all subjects. Mean tHcy ± SD of all subjects was 6.33 ± 3. 15 μmol/L. Males had significantly (p < 0.001) higher tHcy than females. Black non-Hispanic females and H females had significantly (p < 0.003) lower tHcy than WNH females. Positive associations were found between tHcy levels and CHDRPS among females (p < 0.001), Hs (p < 0.001), H males (p < 0.049), H females (p < 0.009), and BNH females (p < 0.005). Significant positive correlations were found between BMI levels and CHDRPS in males (p < 0.001), females (p < 0.001), WNHs (p < 0.008), Hs (p < 0.001), WNH males (p < 0.024), H males (p < 0.004) and H females (p < 0.001). The mean knowledge of CHD questions of all subjects was 71.70 ± 7.92 out of 100. The mean knowledge of CHD was significantly higher for WNH males (p < 0.039) than BNH males. A significant inverse correlation (r = 0.392, p < 0.032) was found between the CHD knowledge and CHDRPS in WNH females. The researcher's findings indicate strong gender and ethnic differences in CHD risk factors among the college-age population. ^

Development of risk based treatability and engineering measures for reducing exposure to lead contaminated media in the Miami inner city, Florida

A major consequence of contamination at the local level’s population as it relates to environmental health and environmental engineering is childhood lead poisoning. Environmental contamination is one of the pressing environmental concerns facing the world today. Current approaches often focus on large contaminated industrial size sites that are designated by regulatory agencies for site remediation. Prior to this study, there were no known published studies conducted at the local and smaller scale, such as neighborhoods, where often much of the contamination is present to remediate. An environmental health study of local lead-poisoning data in Liberty City, Little Haiti and eastern Little Havana in Miami-Dade County, Florida accounted for a disproportionately high number of the county’s reported childhood lead poisoning cases. An engineering system was developed and designed for a comprehensive risk management methodology that is distinctively applicable to the geographical and environmental conditions of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Furthermore, a scientific approach for interpreting environmental health concerns, while involving detailed environmental engineering control measures and methods for site remediation in contained media was developed for implementation. Test samples were obtained from residents and sites in those specific communities in Miami-Dade County, Florida (Gasana and Chamorro 2002). Currently lead does not have an Oral Assessment, Inhalation Assessment, and Oral Slope Factor; variables that are required to run a quantitative risk assessment. However, various institutional controls from federal agencies’ standards and regulation for contaminated lead in media yield adequate maximum concentration limits (MCLs). For this study an MCL of .0015 (mg/L) was used. A risk management approach concerning contaminated media involving lead demonstrates that the linkage of environmental health and environmental engineering can yield a feasible solution.

Risk based post closure care analysis for Florida landfills

Subtitle D of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) requires a post closure period of 30 years for non hazardous wastes in landfills. Post closure care (PCC) activities under Subtitle D include leachate collection and treatment, groundwater monitoring, inspection and maintenance of the final cover, and monitoring to ensure that landfill gas does not migrate off site or into on site buildings. The decision to reduce PCC duration requires exploration of a performance based methodology to Florida landfills. PCC should be based on whether the landfill is a threat to human health or the environment. Historically no risk based procedure has been available to establish an early end to PCC. Landfill stability depends on a number of factors that include variables that relate to operations both before and after the closure of a landfill cell. Therefore, PCC decisions should be based on location specific factors, operational factors, design factors, post closure performance, end use, and risk analysis. The question of appropriate PCC period for Florida’s landfills requires in depth case studies focusing on the analysis of the performance data from closed landfills in Florida. Based on data availability, Davie Landfill was identified as case study site for a case by case analysis of landfill stability. The performance based PCC decision system developed by Geosyntec Consultants was used for the assessment of site conditions to project PCC needs. The available data for leachate and gas quantity and quality, ground water quality, and cap conditions were evaluated. The quality and quantity data for leachate and gas were analyzed to project the levels of pollutants in leachate and groundwater in reference to maximum contaminant level (MCL). In addition, the projected amount of gas quantity was estimated. A set of contaminants (including metals and organics) were identified as contaminants detected in groundwater for health risk assessment. These contaminants were selected based on their detection frequency and levels in leachate and ground water; and their historical and projected trends. During the evaluations a range of discrepancies and problems that related to the collection and documentation were encountered and possible solutions made. Based on the results of PCC performance integrated with risk assessment, projection of future PCC monitoring needs and sustainable waste management options were identified. According to these results, landfill gas monitoring can be terminated, leachate and groundwater monitoring for parameters above MCL and surveying of the cap integrity should be continued. The parameters which cause longer monitoring periods can be eliminated for the future sustainable landfills. As a conclusion, 30 year PCC period can be reduced for some of the landfill components based on their potential impacts to human health and environment (HH&E).

A comprehensive portfolio construction under stochastic environment

Prior research has established that idiosyncratic volatility of the securities prices exhibits a positive trend. This trend and other factors have made the merits of investment diversification and portfolio construction more compelling. ^ A new optimization technique, a greedy algorithm, is proposed to optimize the weights of assets in a portfolio. The main benefits of using this algorithm are to: (a) increase the efficiency of the portfolio optimization process, (b) implement large-scale optimizations, and (c) improve the resulting optimal weights. In addition, the technique utilizes a novel approach in the construction of a time-varying covariance matrix. This involves the application of a modified integrated dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (IDCC - GARCH) model to account for the dynamics of the conditional covariance matrices that are employed. ^ The stochastic aspects of the expected return of the securities are integrated into the technique through Monte Carlo simulations. Instead of representing the expected returns as deterministic values, they are assigned simulated values based on their historical measures. The time-series of the securities are fitted into a probability distribution that matches the time-series characteristics using the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit criterion. Simulated and actual data sets are used to further generalize the results. Employing the S&P500 securities as the base, 2000 simulated data sets are created using Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the Russell 1000 securities are used to generate 50 sample data sets. ^ The results indicate an increase in risk-return performance. Choosing the Value-at-Risk (VaR) as the criterion and the Crystal Ball portfolio optimizer, a commercial product currently available on the market, as the comparison for benchmarking, the new greedy technique clearly outperforms others using a sample of the S&P500 and the Russell 1000 securities. The resulting improvements in performance are consistent among five securities selection methods (maximum, minimum, random, absolute minimum, and absolute maximum) and three covariance structures (unconditional, orthogonal GARCH, and integrated dynamic conditional GARCH). ^

Socio-ecological vulnerability to climate change in South Florida

Awareness of extreme high tide flooding in coastal communities has been increasing in recent years, reflecting growing concern over accelerated sea level rise. As a low-lying, urban coastal community with high value real estate, Miami often tops the rankings of cities worldwide in terms of vulnerability to sea level rise. Understanding perceptions of these changes and how communities are dealing with the impacts reveals much about vulnerability to climate change and the challenges of adaptation. ^ This empirical study uses an innovative mixed-methods approach that combines ethnographic observations of high tide flooding, qualitative interviews and analysis of tidal data to reveal coping strategies used by residents and businesses as well as perceptions of sea level rise and climate change, and to assess the relationship between measurable sea levels and perceptions of flooding. I conduct a case study of Miami Beach's storm water master planning process which included sea level rise projections, one of the first in the nation to do so, that reveals the different and sometimes competing logics of planners, public officials, activists, residents and business interests with regards to climate change adaptation. By taking a deeply contextual account of hazards and adaptation efforts in a local area I demonstrate how this approach can be effective at shedding light on some of the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change and accelerated rates of sea level rise. ^ The findings highlight challenges for infrastructure planning in low-lying, urban coastal areas, and for individual risk assessment in the context of rapidly evolving discourse about the threat of sea level rise. Recognition of the trade-offs and limits of incremental adaptation strategies point to transformative approaches, at the same time highlighting equity concerns in adaptation governance and planning. This new impact assessment method contributes to the integration of social and physical science approaches to climate change, resulting in improved understanding of socio-ecological vulnerability to environmental change.^

Risk Based Post Closure Care Analysis for Florida Landfills

Subtitle D of the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) requires a post closure period of 30 years for non hazardous wastes in landfills. Post closure care (PCC) activities under Subtitle D include leachate collection and treatment, groundwater monitoring, inspection and maintenance of the final cover, and monitoring to ensure that landfill gas does not migrate off site or into on site buildings. The decision to reduce PCC duration requires exploration of a performance based methodology to Florida landfills. PCC should be based on whether the landfill is a threat to human health or the environment. Historically no risk based procedure has been available to establish an early end to PCC. Landfill stability depends on a number of factors that include variables that relate to operations both before and after the closure of a landfill cell. Therefore, PCC decisions should be based on location specific factors, operational factors, design factors, post closure performance, end use, and risk analysis. The question of appropriate PCC period for Florida’s landfills requires in depth case studies focusing on the analysis of the performance data from closed landfills in Florida. Based on data availability, Davie Landfill was identified as case study site for a case by case analysis of landfill stability. The performance based PCC decision system developed by Geosyntec Consultants was used for the assessment of site conditions to project PCC needs. The available data for leachate and gas quantity and quality, ground water quality, and cap conditions were evaluated. The quality and quantity data for leachate and gas were analyzed to project the levels of pollutants in leachate and groundwater in reference to maximum contaminant level (MCL). In addition, the projected amount of gas quantity was estimated. A set of contaminants (including metals and organics) were identified as contaminants detected in groundwater for health risk assessment. These contaminants were selected based on their detection frequency and levels in leachate and ground water; and their historical and projected trends. During the evaluations a range of discrepancies and problems that related to the collection and documentation were encountered and possible solutions made. Based on the results of PCC performance integrated with risk assessment, projection of future PCC monitoring needs and sustainable waste management options were identified. According to these results, landfill gas monitoring can be terminated, leachate and groundwater monitoring for parameters above MCL and surveying of the cap integrity should be continued. The parameters which cause longer monitoring periods can be eliminated for the future sustainable landfills. As a conclusion, 30 year PCC period can be reduced for some of the landfill components based on their potential impacts to human health and environment (HH&E).

Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk score in an observation unit setting.

OBJECTIVE: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score is a validated tool for risk stratification of acute coronary syndrome. We hypothesized that the TIMI risk score would be able to risk stratify patients in observation unit for acute coronary syndrome. METHODS: STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients placed in an urban academic hospital emergency department observation unit with an average annual census of 65,000 between 2004 and 2007. Exclusion criteria included elevated initial cardiac biomarkers, ST segment changes on ECG, unstable vital signs, or unstable arrhythmias. A composite of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) indicators, including diagnosis of myocardial infarction, percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass surgery, or death within 30 days and 1 year, were abstracted via chart review and financial record query. The entire cohort was stratified by TIMI risk scores (0-7) and composite event rates with 95% confidence interval were calculated. RESULTS: In total 2228 patients were analyzed. Average age was 54.5 years, 42.0% were male. The overall median TIMI risk score was 1. Eighty (3.6%) patients had 30-day and 119 (5.3%) had 1-year CAD indicators. There was a trend toward increasing rate of composite CAD indicators at 30 days and 1 year with increasing TIMI score, ranging from a 1.2% event rate at 30 days and 1.9% at 1 year for TIMI score of 0 and 12.5% at 30 days and 21.4% at 1 year for TIMI ≥ 4. CONCLUSIONS: In an observation unit cohort, the TIMI risk score is able to risk stratify patients into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups.

Predicting 10-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany: an update based on the SCORE-Deutschland Risk Charts

Estimation of absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), preferably with population-specific risk charts, has become a cornerstone of CVD primary prevention. Regular recalibration of risk charts may be necessary due to decreasing CVD rates and CVD risk factor levels. The SCORE risk charts for fatal CVD risk assessment were first calibrated for Germany with 1998 risk factor level data and 1999 mortality statistics. We present an update of these risk charts based on the SCORE methodology including estimates of relative risks from SCORE, risk factor levels from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Adults 2008-11 (DEGS1) and official mortality statistics from 2012. Competing risks methods were applied and estimates were independently validated. Updated risk charts were calculated based on cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure risk factor levels, sex and 5-year age-groups. The absolute 10-year risk estimates of fatal CVD were lower according to the updated risk charts compared to the first calibration for Germany. In a nationwide sample of 3062 adults aged 40-65 years free of major CVD from DEGS1, the mean 10-year risk of fatal CVD estimated by the updated charts was lower by 29% and the estimated proportion of high risk people (10-year risk > = 5%) by 50% compared to the older risk charts. This recalibration shows a need for regular updates of risk charts according to changes in mortality and risk factor levels in order to sustain the identification of people with a high CVD risk.