Disease-weather relationships for powdery mildew and yellow rust on winter wheat

Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Weather to disperse? Evidence that climatic conditions influence vertebrate dispersal

1. Dispersal is regarded as critical to the stability of existing populations and the spread of invading species, but empirical data on the effect of travelling conditions during the transfer phase are rare. We present evidence that both timing and distance of ex-natal dispersal in buzzards (Buteo buteo) are strongly affected by weather. 2. Dispersal was recorded more often when the wind changed to a more southerly direction from the more common westerly winds, and when minimum temperatures were lower. The effect of wind direction was greatest in the winter and minimum temperature was most important in the autumn. Poor weather did not appear to initiate dispersal. 3. Dispersal distance was most strongly correlated with maximum temperature during dispersal and wind direction in the following 5-day period. Combined with the sex of the buzzard these three variables accounted for 60% of the variation in dispersal distance. 4. These results are important for conservationists who manage species recovery programs and wildlife managers who model biological invasions.

Performance evaluation of wall mounted convector for pre-heating naturally ventilated spaces

This paper presents the results of performance monitoring under real winter weather conditions, controlled laboratory testing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of a wall mounted ventilation air inlet heat convector. For real winter weather monitoring, the wall-mounted convector was installed in a laboratory room of the Engineering Building of the School of Construction Management and Engineering. Air and hot water temperatures and air speeds were measured at the entrance to the convector and in the room. The hot water temperature was controlled at 40, 60 and 80 °C. The monitoring results were later used as boundary conditions for a CFD simulation to investigate the air movement in the room. Controlled laboratory testing was conducted in laboratories at the University of Reading, UK and at Wetterstad Consultancy, Sweden. The results of the performance investigation showed that the system contributed greatly to the room heating, particularly at a water temperature of 80 °C. Also adequate fresh air was supplied to the room. Such a system is able to provide an energy efficient method of eliminating problems associated with cold winter draughts.

Condensation and moisture transport in cold roofs: effect of roof underlay

Cold pitched roofs, with their form of construction situating insulation on a horizontal ceiling, are intrinsically vulnerable to condensation. This study reports the results derived from using a simulation package (Heat, Air and Moisture modelling tool, or HAM-Tools) to investigate the risk of condensation in cold pitched roofs in housing fitted with a vapour-permeable underlay (VPU) of known characteristics. In order to visualize the effect of the VPUs on moisture transfer, several scenarios were modelled, and compared with the results from a conventional bituminous felt with high resistance (200 MNs/g, Sd = 40 m). The results indicate that ventilation is essential in the roof to reduce condensation. However, a sensitivity analysis proved that reducing the overall tightness of the ceiling and using lower-resistance VPUs would help in controlling condensation formation in the roof. To a large extent, the proposed characteristic performance of the VPU as predicted by manufacturers and some researchers may only be realistic if gaps in the ceiling are sealed completely during construction, which may be practically difficult given current construction practice.

Viability of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica during the preparation and cold storage of Egyptian soft cheeses and ice-cream

Changes occurring in the viability of Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica during the preparation and cold storage of Domiati cheese, Kariesh cheese and ice-cream were examined. A significant decrease in numbers was observed after whey drainage during the manufacture of Domiati cheese, but Salmonella remained viable for 13 weeks in cheeses prepared from milks with between 60 and 100 g/L NaCl; the viability declined in Domiati cheese made from highly salted milk during the later stages of storage. The method of coagulation used in the preparation of Kariesh cheese affected the survival time of the pathogen, and it varied from 2 to 3 weeks in cheeses made with a slow-acid coagulation method to 4-5 weeks for an acid-rennet coagulation method. This difference was attributed to the higher salt-in-moisture levels and lower pH values of Kariesh cheese prepared by the slow-acid coagulation method. A slight decrease in the numbers of Salmonella resulted from ageing ice-cream mix for 24 h at 0degreesC, but a greater reduction was evident after one day of frozen storage at -20degreesC. The pathogen survived further frozen storage for four months without any substantial change in numbers.

Occupants' adaptive responses and perception of thermal environment in naturally conditioned university classrooms

A year-long field study of the thermal environment in university classrooms was conducted from March 2005 to May 2006 in Chongqing, China. This paper presents the occupants’ thermal sensation votes and discusses the occupants’ adaptive response and perception of the thermal environment in a naturally conditioned space. Comparisons between the Actual Mean Vote (AMV) and Predicted Mean Vote (PMV) have been made as well as between the Actual Percentage of Dissatisfied (APD) and Predicted Percentage of Dissatisfied (PPD). The adaptive thermal comfort zone for the naturally conditioned space for Chongqing, which has hot summer and cold winter climatic characteristics, has been proposed based on the field study results. The Chongqing adaptive comfort range is broader than that of the ASHRAE Standard 55-2004 in general, but in the extreme cold and hot months, it is narrower. The thermal conditions in classrooms in Chongqing in summer and winter are severe. Behavioural adaptation such as changing clothing, adjusting indoor air velocity, taking hot/cold drinks, etc., as well as psychological adaptation, has played a role in adapting to the thermal environment.

Geodetic mass balance of Azarova glacier, Kodar Mountains, eastern Siberia, and its links to observed and projected climatic change

The Kodar Mountains in eastern Siberia accommodate 30 small, cold-based glaciers with a combined surface area of about 19 km2. Very little is known about these glaciers, with the first survey conducted in the late 1950s. In this paper, we use terrestrial photogrammetry to calculate changes in surface area, elevation, volume and geodetic mass balance of the Azarova Glacier between 1979 and 2007 and relate these to meteorological data from nearby Chara weather station (1938-2007). The glacier surface area declined by 20±6.9% and surface lowered on average by 20±1.8 m (mean thinning: 0.71 m a-1) resulting in a strongly negative cumulative and average mass balance of -18±1.6 m w.e. and -640±60 mm w.e.a-1 respectively. The July-August air temperature increased at a rate of 0.036oC a-1 between 1979 and 2007 and the 1980-2007 period was, on average, around 1oC warmer than 1938-1979. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in 2071–2100 by 2.6-4.7°C and 4.9-6.2°C respectively in comparison with 1961–1990. The annual total of solid precipitation will increase by 20% under B2 scenario but decline by 3% under A2 scenario. The length of the ablation season will extend from July–August to June-September. The Azarova Glacier exhibits high sensitivity to climatic warming due to its low elevation, exposure to comparatively high summer temperatures, and the absence of a compensating impact of cold season precipitation. Further summer warming and decline of solid precipitation projected under the A2 scenario will force Azarova to retreat further while impacts of an increase in solid precipitation projected under the B2 scenario require further investigation.

On differentiating ground clutter and insect echoes from Doppler weather radars using archived data

Normally wind measurements from Doppler radars rely on the presence of rain. During fine weather, insects become a potential radar target for wind measurement. However, it is difficult to separate ground clutter and insect echoes when spectral or polarimetric methods are not available. Archived reflectivity and velocity data from repeated scans provide alternative methods. The probability of detection (POD) method, which maps areas with a persistent signal as ground clutter, is ineffective when most scans also contain persistent insect echoes. We developed a clutter detection method which maps the standard deviation of velocity (SDV) over a large number of scans, and can differentiate insects and ground clutter close to the radar. Beyond the range of persistent insect echoes, the POD method more thoroughly removes ground clutter. A new, pseudo-probability clutter map was created by combining the POD and SDV maps. The new map optimised ground clutter detection without removing insect echoes.

A specific group of genes respond to cold dehydration stress in cut Alstroemeria flowers whereas ambient dehydration stress accelerates developmental senescence expression patterns

Petal development and senescence entails a normally irreversible process. It starts with petal expansion and pigment production, and ends with nutrient remobilization and ultimately cell death. In many species this is accompanied by petal abscission. Post-harvest stress is an important factor in limiting petal longevity in cut flowers and accelerates some of the processes of senescence such as petal wilting and abscission. However, some of the effects of moderate stress in young flowers are reversible with appropriate treatments. Transcriptomic studies have shown that distinct gene sets are expressed during petal development and senescence. Despite this, the overlap in gene expression between developmental and stress-induced senescence in petals has not been fully investigated in any species. Here a custom-made cDNA microarray from Alstroemeria petals was used to investigate the overlap in gene expression between developmental changes (bud to first sign of senescence) and typical post-harvest stress treatments. Young flowers were stressed by cold or ambient temperatures without water followed by a recovery and rehydration period. Stressed flowers were still at the bud stage after stress treatments. Microarray analysis showed that ambient dehydration stress accelerates many of the changes in gene expression patterns that would normally occur during developmental senescence. However, a higher proportion of gene expression changes in response to cold stress were specific to this stimulus and not senescence related. The expression of 21 transcription factors was characterized, showing that overlapping sets of regulatory genes are activated during developmental senescence and by different stresses.