Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.

Co-melt fluidised bed granulation of pharmaceutical powders: Improvements in drug bioavailability

This study investigates the use of co-melt fluidised bed granulation for the agglomeration of model pharmaceutical powders, namely, lactose mono-hydrate, PEG 10000, poly-vinyl pyrolidone and ibuprofen as a model drug. Granulation within the co-melt system was found to follow a nucleationâ??steady growthâ??coating regime profile. Using high molecular weight PEG binder, the granulation mechanism and thus the extent of granulation was found to be significantly influenced by binder viscosity. The compression properties of the granulate within the hot fluidised bed were correlated using a novel high temperature experimental procedure. It was found that the fracture stress and fractural modulus of the materials under hot processing conditions were orders of magnitude lower than those measured under ambient conditions. A range of particle velocities within the granulator were considered based on theoretical models. After an initial period of nucleation, the Stokes deformation number analysis indicated that only velocities within the high shear region of the fluidised bed were sufficient to promote significant granule deformation and therefore, coalescence. The data also indicated that larger granules de-fluidised preventing agglomeration by coalescence. Furthermore, experimental data indicated that dissipation of the viscous molten binder to the surface was the most important factor in the latter stages of the granulation process. From a pharmaceutical perspective the inclusion of the model drug, ibuprofen, combined with PVP in the co-melt process proved to be highly significant. It was found that using DSC analysis on the formulations that the decrease in the heat of fusion associated with the melting of ibuprofen within the FHMG systems may be attributed to interaction between PVP and ibuprofen through inter-molecular hydrogen bonding. This interaction decreases the crystallinity of ibuprofen and facilitates solubilisation and bioavailability within the solid matrix.

Fate and transport of volatile organic compounds in glacial till and groundwater at an industrial site in Northern Ireland

Volatile organic compound (VOC) contamination of subsurface geological material and groundwater was discovered on the Nortel Monkstown industrial site, Belfast, Northern Ireland. The objectives of this study were to (1) investigate the characteristics of the geological material and its influences on contaminated groundwater flow across the site using borehole logs and hydrological evaluations, and (2) identify the contaminants and examine their distribution in the subsurface geological material and groundwater using chemical analysis. This report focuses on the eastern car park (ECP) which was a former storage area associated with trichloroethene (TCE) degreasing operations. This is where the greatest amount of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), particularly TCE, were detected. The study site is on a complex deposit of clayey glacial till with discontinuous coarser grained lenses, mainly silts, sands and gravel, which occur at 0.45–7.82 m below ground level (bgl). The lenses overall form an elongated formation that acts as a small unconfined shallow aquifer. There is a continuous low permeable stiff clayey till layer beneath the lenses that performs as an aquitard to the groundwater. Highest concentrations of VOCs, mainly TCE, in the geological material and groundwater are in these coarser lenses at ~4.5–7 m bgl. Highest TCE measurements at 390,000 µg L-1 for groundwater and at 39,000 µg kg-1 at 5.7 m for geological material were in borehole GA19 in the coarse lens zone. It is assumed that TCE gained entrance to the subsurface near this borehole where the clayey till was thin to absent above coarse lenses which provided little retardation to the vertical migration of this dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) into the groundwater. However, TCE is present in low concentrations in the geological material overlying the coarse lens zone. Additionally, VOCs appear to be associated with poorly drained layers and in peat