On-line writing: a link to learning in a teacher education program

This paper examines the use of on-line discussion as a medium for learning in a pre-service teacher education program. As part of an Education Studies course student teachers engaged in a discussion of issues related to technology and equity in schools. The design of the task and the subsequent analysis of the on-line text were part of a research project investigating whether and how communications technology can be used to integrate and extend the learning of teacher education students. The main argument developed in the paper is that through the on-line activity distinctive sets of writing practices were created. These practices enabled students to make connections between the often disparate parts of teacher education programs-theory and practice, campus and school, research and experience. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C3 shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.

Methodologies for calibration and predictive analysis of a watershed model

The use of a fitted parameter watershed model to address water quantity and quality management issues requires that it be calibrated under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. However, rarely does model calibration result in a unique parameter set. Parameter nonuniqueness can lead to predictive nonuniqueness. The extent of model predictive uncertainty should be investigated if management decisions are to be based on model projections. Using models built for four neighboring watersheds in the Neuse River Basin of North Carolina, the application of the automated parameter optimization software PEST in conjunction with the Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) is demonstrated. Parameter nonuniqueness is illustrated, and a method is presented for calculating many different sets of parameters, all of which acceptably calibrate a watershed model. A regularization methodology is discussed in which models for similar watersheds can be calibrated simultaneously. Using this method, parameter differences between watershed models can be minimized while maintaining fit between model outputs and field observations. In recognition of the fact that parameter nonuniqueness and predictive uncertainty are inherent to the modeling process, PEST's nonlinear predictive analysis functionality is then used to explore the extent of model predictive uncertainty.

A yield architecture framework to explain adaptation of pearl millet to environmental stress

Functional knowledge of the physiological basis of crop adaptation to stress is a prerequisite for exploiting specific adaptation to stress environments in breeding programs. This paper presents an analysis of yield components for pearl millet, to explain the specific adaptation of local landraces to stress environments in Rajasthan, India. Six genotypes, ranging from high-tillering traditional landraces to low-tillering open-pollinated modern cultivars, were grown in 20 experiments, covering a range of nonstress and drought stress patterns. In each experiment, yield components (particle number, grain number, 100 grain mass) were measured separately for main shoots, basal tillers, and nodal tillers. Under optimum conditions, landraces had a significantly lower grain yield than the cultivars, but no significant differences were observed at yield levels around 1 ton ha(-1). This genotype x environment interaction for grain yield was due to a difference in yield strategy, where landraces aimed at minimising the risk of a crop failure under stress conditions, and modem cultivars aimed at maximising yield potential under optimum conditions. A key aspect of the adaptation of landraces was the small size of the main shoot panicle, as it minimised (1) the loss of productive tillers during stem elongation; (2) the delay in anthesis if mid-season drought occurs; and (3) the reduction in panicle productivity of the basal tillers under stress. In addition, a low investment in structural panicle weight, relative to vegetative crop growth rate, promoted the production of nodal tillers, providing a mechanism to compensate for reduced basal tiller productivity if stress occurred around anthesis. A low maximum 100 grain mass also ensured individual grain mass was little affected by environmental conditions. The strategy of the high-tillering landraces carries a yield penalty under optimum conditions, but is expected to minimise the risk of a crop failure, particularly if mid-season drought stress occurs. The yield architecture of low-tillering varieties, by contrast, will be suited to end-of-season drought stress, provided anthesis is early. Application of the above adaptation mechanisms into a breeding program could enable the identification of plant types that match the prevalent stress patterns in the target environments. (C) 2003 E.J. van Oosterom. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Prevalência e fatores associados à infecção pelo M. tuberculosis entre agentes comunitários de saúde

Introdução: A tuberculose é uma doença milenar e que, ainda hoje, constitui grave problema de saúde pública em todo o mundo. Objetivo: Estimar a prevalência e os fatores associados à infecção latente pelo MTB entre Agentes Comunitários de Saúde atuantes na rede básica de saúde de Municípios prioritários para o controle de TB – Cuiabá/MT, Manaus/AM, Salvador/BA e Vitória/ES. Métodos: Estudo de corte transversal no qual os dados foram coletados através de questionário, composto de questões abertas e fechadas sobre características pessoais; informações a respeito da tuberculose; utilização de medidas preventivas, etc. Aplicou-se prova tuberculínica, com leitura após 48-72h por enfermeiros treinados, considerando como ponte de corte positivo 5 e 10 mm de enduração. A análise múltipla foi feita por meio de regressão logística hierarquica. Foram incluídas no modelo as variáveis que mostraram associação com desfecho com p<0,1. Permaneceram no modelo as variáveis independentes que mantiveram associação com desfecho após ajuste (p<0,05). Este estudo obteve aprovação do Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa com seres humanos do Centro de Ciências da Saúde da Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, n° de registro CEP-07/2010 e das Secretarias Municipais de Saúde, por meio de uma Carta de Apresentação. Resultados: 322 Agentes Comunitários de Saúde (ACS) aceitaram participar voluntariamente do estudo por meio da assinatura do Termo de Consentimento Livre e Esclarecido. Destes, 10 não compareceram para leitura, sendo estes considerados como perdas, além do que um indivíduo foi excluído pelo fato do teste rápido para HIV ter resultado positivo, perfazendo uma amostra final de 311 participantes. Ainda em relação aos ACS triados, a positividade a Prova Tuberculínica, levando-se em consideração o ponto de corte ao teste de 10 mm e de 5 mm de enduração, foi de 37,30% (IC95%: 0,31-0,42) e de 57,88% (IC95%: 0,52-0,63), respectivamente.Conclusões: Faz-se necessário um programa de realização de Prova Tuberculínica, de rotina, combinado com intervenções para reduzir o risco de transmissão nosocomial, bem como a realização de outros estudos para avaliar a eficácia de novos testes para detecção de tuberculose latente.

Variabilidade genética em famílias de meios-irmãos de cafeeiro robusta

O cultivo do café é uma das atividades do agronegócio de maior importância socioeconômica dentre as diferentes atividades ligadas ao comércio agrícola mundial. Uma das maiores contribuições da genética quantitativa para o melhoramento genético é a possibilidade de prever ganhos genéticos. Quando diferentes critérios de seleção são considerados, a predição de ganhos referentes a cada critério tem grande importância, pois indica os melhoristas sobre como utilizar o material genético disponível, visando obter o máximo de ganhos possível para as características de interesse. O presente trabalho foi instalado em julho de 2004, na Fazenda Experimental de Bananal do Norte, conduzida pelo Incaper, no distrito de Pacotuba, município de Cachoeiro de Itapemirim, região Sul do Estado, com o objetivo de selecionar as melhores plantas entre e dentro de progênies de meios- irmãos de Coffea canephora, por meio de diferentes critérios de seleção. Foram realizadas análises de variância individuais e conjuntas para 26 progênies de meios- irmãos Coffea canephora. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi em blocos ao acaso com quatro testemunhas adicionais com quatro repetições e parcela composta por cinco plantas, com o espaçamento de 3,0 m x 1,2 m. Neste trabalho, considerou-se os dados das últimas cinco colheitas. As características mensuradas foram: florescimento, maturação, tamanho do grão, peso, porte, vigor, ferrugem, mancha cercóspora, seca de ponteiros, escala geral, porcentagem de frutos boia e bicho mineiro. Todas as análises estatísticas foram realizadas com o aplicativo computacional em genética e estatística (GENES). Foram estimados os ganhos de seleção em função da porcentagem de seleção de 20% entre e dentro, sendo as mesmas mantidas para todas as características. Todas as características foram submetidas a seleção no sentido positivo, exceto para florescimento, porte, ferrugem, mancha cercóspora, seca de ponteiros, porcentagem de frutos boia e bicho mineiro, para obter decréscimo em suas médias originais. Os critérios de seleção estudados foram: seleção convencional entre e dentro das famílias, índice de seleção combinada, seleção massal e seleção massal estratificada. Esta dissertação é composta por dois capítulos, em que foram realizadas análises biométricas, como a obtenção de estimativas de parâmetros genéticos. Na maioria das características estudadas, verificaram-se diferenças significativas (P<0,05) para genótipos que, associados aos coeficientes de variação genotípicos e também ao coeficiente de determinação genotípico e à relação CVg/CVe, indicam a existência de variabilidade genética nos materiais genéticos para a maioria das características e condições favoráveis para obtenção de ganhos genéticos pela seleção. Essas características também foram correlacionadas. Os dados foram submetidos às análises de variância e multivariada, aplicando-se a técnica de agrupamento e UPGMA, teste de médias e estudo de correlações. Na técnica de agrupamento, foi utilizada a distância generalizada de Mahalanobis como medida de dissimilaridade, e na delimitação dos grupos, o método de Tocher. Foi encontrada diversidade genética para as características associadas à qualidade fisiológica, mobilização de reserva das sementes, dimensões e biomassa das plântulas. Quatro grupos de genótipos puderam ser formados. Peso de massa seca de sementes, redução de reserva de sementes e peso de massa seca de plântulas estão positivamente correlacionados entre si, enquanto a redução de reserva das sementes e a eficiência na conversão dessas reservas em plântulas estão negativamente correlacionadas. De acordo com os resultados obtidos, verificou-se que todas as características apresentaram níveis diferenciados de variabilidade genética e os critérios de seleção utilizados mostraram-se eficientes para o melhoramento, no qual o índice de seleção combinada é o critério de seleção que apresentou os melhores resultados em termos de ganhos, sendo indicado como critério mais apropriado para o melhoramento genético da população estudada. Nos estudos de correlações, em 70% dos casos, a correlação fenotípica foi superior à genotípica, mostrando maior influência dos fatores ambientais em relação aos genotípicos e condições propícias ao melhoramento dos diferentes caracteres. No estudo de divergência genética, observou-se que pelo agrupamento de genótipos, pela técnica de Tocher, indicou que os genótipos foram distribuídos em três grupos.

Fighting climate change in the air: lessons from the EU directive on global aviation

The European Union's (EU) decision to include aviation into the Emissions Trade Scheme was heatedly contested. Countries around the world, but mainly the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa group (BRICS) and the US, denounced the EU's initiate as illegal and unilateral. Following a decade of frustrated negotiations at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), this paper interrogates why such measure, in principle climate-friendly, inspired so much global resentment. I argue that concerns with competitiveness and risks of legal inconsistency are important, but insufficient elements to explain the core of the conflict. The paper suggests that the EU was strongly criticized because third countries perceived this action as an imposed solution, which fostered an environment of distrust. Therefore, I claim that the problem has more to do with a normative divide than with a substantive divergence on what should be done regarding aviation emissions. My analysis is informed by the present literature on the links between trade and climate change, but gives particular weight to first-hand information through interviews with key stakeholders. The paper is divided in three parts. First, it presents the scope of the EU directive in historical perspective. Second, it explores the EU's measure through three different angles: legal, economical and political. The final part explores some possible solutions to overcome these divergences.

Program slicing by calculation

Program slicing is a well known family of techniques used to identify code fragments which depend on or are depended upon specific program entities. They are particularly useful in the areas of reverse engineering, program understanding, testing and software maintenance. Most slicing methods, usually oriented towards the imperative or object paradigms, are based on some sort of graph structure representing program dependencies. Slicing techniques amount, therefore, to (sophisticated) graph transversal algorithms. This paper proposes a completely different approach to the slicing problem for functional programs. Instead of extracting program information to build an underlying dependencies’ structure, we resort to standard program calculation strategies, based on the so-called Bird-Meertens formalism. The slicing criterion is specified either as a projection or a hiding function which, once composed with the original program, leads to the identification of the intended slice. Going through a number of examples, the paper suggests this approach may be an interesting, even if not completely general, alternative to slicing functional programs

Component identification through program slicing

This paper reports on the development of specific slicing techniques for functional programs and their use for the identification of possible coherent components from monolithic code. An associated tool is also introduced. This piece of research is part of a broader project on program understanding and re-engineering of legacy code supported by formal methods

Slicing for architectural analysis

Current software development often relies on non-trivial coordination logic for combining autonomous services, eventually running on different platforms. As a rule, however, such a coordination layer is strongly woven within the application at source code level. Therefore, its precise identification becomes a major methodological (and technical) problem and a challenge to any program understanding or refactoring process. The approach introduced in this paper resorts to slicing techniques to extract coordination data from source code. Such data are captured in a specific dependency graph structure from which a coordination model can be recovered either in the form of an Orc specification or as a collection of code fragments corresponding to the identification of typical coordination patterns in the system. Tool support is also discussed

Genetic divergence of tomato subsamples

Understanding the genetic variability of a species is crucial for the progress of a genetic breeding program and requires characterization and evaluation of germplasm. This study aimed to characterize and evaluate 101 tomato subsamples of the Salad group (fresh market) and two commercial controls, one of the Salad group (cv. Fanny) and another of the Santa Cruz group (cv. Santa Clara). Four experiments were conducted in a randomized block design with three replications and five plants per plot. The joint analysis of variance was performed and characteristics with significant complex interaction between control and experiment were excluded. Subsequently, the multicollinearity diagnostic test was carried out and characteristics that contributed to severe multicollinearity were excluded. The relative importance of each characteristics for genetic divergence was calculated by the Singh's method (Singh, 1981), and the less important ones were excluded according to Garcia (1998). Results showed large genetic divergence among the subsamples for morphological, agronomic and organoleptic characteristics, indicating potential for genetic improvement. The characteristics total soluble solids, mean number of good fruits per plant, endocarp thickness, mean mass of marketable fruit per plant, total acidity, mean number of unmarketable fruit per plant, internode diameter, internode length, main stem thickness and leaf width contributed little to the genetic divergence between the subsamples and may be excluded in future studies.

Leaf area and epicuticular wax content of Sida spp

Morpho-physiological characteristics and chemical composition are directly related to superior competitive ability of crops. This study intended to make a comparative analysis of dry matter production, leaf area and amount of epicuticular wax of three species of Sida spp: S. urens L., S. rhombifolia L. and S. spinosa L. Plants were collected at three growth stages: V1: stage described as up to 10 fully expanded leaves; V2: between 11 leaves and flowering; and R: after flowering. At stages V2 and R, the highest number of leaves was recorded for S. rhombifolia, followed by S. spinosa at V2 and S. urens at R. These results were relatively proportional to leaf area for all species. S. spinosa at the vegetative stage produced the highest values of specific leaf area (SLA), with no significant differences between species at the stage R. The amount of wax per unit of leaf area between species at the same developmental stage was significantly different only at the reproductive stage, where S. spinosa produced 23.18 and 6.23 fold more wax than S. urens and S. rhombifolia respectively. Between the growth stages of each species, there was decrease in the amount of wax with plant age and increase in leaf area (AFE), number of leaves and dry matter. The leaves of the Sida species exhibit different characteristics and this information can be used to optimize the use of herbicides in the control of these weeds.

Analysis of mediation and reciprocal effects of changes in weight, self-esteem, and exercise in a behavioral weight loss treatment

Improving the treatment of obesity remains a critical challenge. Several health behaviour change models, often based on a social-cognitive framework, have been used to design weight management interventions (Baranowski et al., 2003). However, most interventions have only produced modest weight reductions (Wadden et al., 2002) and socialcognitive variables have shown limited power to predict weight outcomes (Palmeira et al., 2007). Other predictors, and possibl alte nati e e planatory models, are needed to better understand the mechanisms by which weight loss and other obesity treatment-outcomes are brought about (Baranowski, 2006). Self-esteem is one of these possible mechanisms, because is commonly reported to change during the treatment, although these changes are not necessarily associated with weight loss (Blaine et al., 2007; Maciejewski et al., 2005). This possibility should be more evident if the program integrates regular exercise, as it promotes improvements in subjective well-being (Biddle & Mutrie, 2001), with possible influences on long-term behavioral adherence (e.g. diet, exercise). Following the reciprocal effects model tenets (Marsh & Craven, 2006), we expect that the influences between changes in weight, selfesteem and exercise to be reciprocal and might present one of the mechanisms by which obesity treatments can be improved.

Supplementary feeding programs: a critical analysis

A critical analysis of the Supplementary Feeding Programs which have been undertaken around the world is presented. Although only a few programs have been rigorously evaluated it seems that in relation to their main objectives, most of them have not proved to be successful. Some suggestions for improvement are put forward and the particular case of the Brazilian programs is assessed in detail.