Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change

The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea‐level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up ∼40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean ‘carbon pumps’ (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice–ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to further releases of the potent greenhouse gas methane from hydrates and permafrost. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in driving, modifying and regulating global climate change via the carbon cycle and through its impact on adjacent Antarctica. The Antarctic Peninsula has shown some of the most rapid rises in atmospheric and oceanic temperature in the world, with an associated retreat of the majority of glaciers. Parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are deflating rapidly, very likely due to a change in the flux of oceanic heat to the undersides of the floating ice shelves. The final section on modelling feedbacks from the ocean to climate change identifies limitations and priorities for model development and associated observations. Considering the importance of the oceans to climate change and our limited understanding of climate-related ocean processes, our ability to measure the changes that are taking place are conspicuously inadequate. The chapter highlights the need for a comprehensive, adequately funded and globally extensive ocean observing system to be implemented and sustained as a high priority. Unless feedbacks from the oceans to climate change are adequately included in climate change models, it is possible that the mitigation actions needed to stabilise CO2 and limit temperature rise over the next century will be underestimated.

Temporal change in UK marine communities: trends or regime shifts?

A regime shift is a large, sudden, and long-lasting change in the dynamics of an ecosystem, affecting multiple trophic levels. There are a growing number of papers that report regime shifts in marine ecosystems. However, the evidence for regime shifts is equivocal, because the methods used to detect them are not yet well developed. We have collated over 300 biological time series from seven marine regions around the UK, covering the ecosystem from phytoplankton to marine mammals. Each time series consists of annual measures of abundance for a single group of organisms over several decades. We summarised the data for each region using the first principal component, weighting either each time series or each biological component (e.g. plankton, fish, benthos) equally. We then searched for regime shifts using Rodionov’s regime shift detection (RSD) method, which found regime shifts in the first principal component for all seven marine regions. However, there are consistent temporal trends in the data for six of the seven regions. Such trends violate the assumptions of RSD. Thus, the regime shifts detected by RSD in six of the seven regions are likely to be artefacts caused by temporal trends. We are therefore developing more appropriate time series models for both single populations and whole communities that will explicitly model temporal trends and should increase our ability to detect true regime shift events.

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea; evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10–20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.

Long-term individual foraging site fidelity – why some gannets don’t change their spots

Many established models of animal foraging assume that individuals are ecologically equivalent. However, it is increasingly recognized that populations may comprise individuals who differ consistently in their diets and foraging behaviors. For example, recent studies have shown that individual foraging site fidelity (IFSF, when individuals consistently forage in only a small part of their population's home range) occurs in some colonial breeders. Short‐term IFSF could result from animals using a win–stay, lose–shift foraging strategy. Alternatively, it may be a consequence of individual specialization. Pelagic seabirds are colonial central‐place foragers, classically assumed to use flexible foraging strategies to target widely dispersed, spatiotemporally patchy prey. However, tracking has shown that IFSF occurs in many seabirds, although it is not known whether this persists across years. To test for long‐term IFSF and to examine alternative hypotheses concerning its cause, we repeatedly tracked 55 Northern Gannets (Morus bassanus) from a large colony in the North Sea within and across three successive breeding seasons. Gannets foraged in neritic waters, predictably structured by tidal mixing and thermal stratification, but subject to stochastic, wind‐induced overturning. Both within and across years, coarse to mesoscale (tens of kilometers) IFSF was significant but not absolute, and foraging birds departed the colony in individually consistent directions. Carbon stable isotope ratios in gannet blood tissues were repeatable within years and nitrogen ratios were also repeatable across years, suggesting long‐term individual dietary specialization. Individuals were also consistent across years in habitat use with respect to relative sea surface temperature and in some dive metrics, yet none of these factors accounted for IFSF. Moreover, at the scale of weeks, IFSF did not decay over time and the magnitude of IFSF across years was similar to that within years, suggesting that IFSF is not primarily the result of win–stay, lose–shift foraging. Rather, we hypothesize that site familiarity, accrued early in life, causes IFSF by canalizing subsequent foraging decisions. Evidence from this and other studies suggests that IFSF may be common in colonial central‐place foragers, with far‐reaching consequences for our attempts to understand and conserve these animals in a rapidly changing environment.

Holocene climate change and past Irish societal response

The extent to which North Atlantic Holocene climatic perturbations influenced past human societies is an area of considerable uncertainty and fierce debate. Ireland is ideally placed to help resolve this issue, being occupied for over 9000 yr and located on the eastern Atlantic seaboard, a region dominated by westerly airflow. Irish bog and lake tree populations provide unambiguous evidence of major shifts in surface moisture through the Holocene similar to cycles recorded in the marine realm of the North Atlantic, indicating significant changes in the latitude and intensity of zonal atmospheric circulation across the region. To test for human response to these cycles we summed the probabilities of 465 radiocarbon ages obtained from Irish archaeological contexts and observe enhanced archaeological visibility during periods of sustained wet conditions. These results suggest either increasing density of human populations in key, often defensive locations, and/or the development of subsistence strategies to overcome changing conditions, the latter recently proposed as a significant factor in avoiding societal collapse. Regardless, we demonstrate environmental change is a significantly more important factor in influencing human activity in the landscape than has hitherto been acknowledged.

Analysing spatio-temporal change by use of national historical Geographical Information Systems: Population change during and after the Great Irish Famine

Several countries have made large investments in building historical Geographical Information Systems (GIS) databases containing census and other quantitative statistics over long periods of time. Making good use of these databases requires approaches that explore spatial and temporal change.

A Holocene record of human induced and natural environmental change from Lake Forsyth (Te Wairewa), New Zealand

A 1.2 m sediment core from Lake Forsyth, Canterbury, New Zealand, records the development of the catchment/lake system over the last 7000 years, and its response to anthropogenic disturbance following European settlement c. 1840 AD. Pollen was used to reconstruct catchment vegetation history, while foraminifera, chironomids, Trichoptera, and the abundance of Pediastrum simplex colonies were used to infer past environmental conditions within the lake. The basal 30 cm of core records the transition of the Lake Forsyth Basin from a tidal embayment to a brackish coastal lake. Timing of closure of the lake mouth could not be accurately determined, but it appears that Lake Forsyth had stabilised as a slightly brackish, oligo mesotrophic shallow lake by about 500 years BP. Major deforestation occurred on Banks Peninsula between 1860 AD and 1890 AD. This deforestation is marked by the rapid decline in the main canopy trees (Prumnopitys taxifolia (matai) and Podocarpus totara/hallii (totara/mountain totara), an increase in charcoal, and the appearance of grasses. At around 1895 AD, pine appears in the record while a willow (Salix spp.) appears somewhat later. Redundancy analysis (RDA) of the pollen and aquatic species data revealed a significant relationship between regional vegetation and the abundance of aquatic taxa, with the percentage if disturbance pollen explaining most (14.8%) of the constrained variation in the aquatic species data. Principle components analysis (PCA) of aquatic species data revealed that the most significant period of rapid biological change in the lakes history corresponded to the main period of human disturbance in the catchment. Deforestation led to increased sediment and nutrient input into the lake which was accompanied by a major reduction in salinity. These changes are inferred from the appearance and proliferation of freshwater algae (Pediastrum simplex), an increase in abundance and diversity of chironomids, and the abundance of cases and remains from the larvae of the caddisfly, Oecetis unicolor. Eutrophication accompanied by increasing salinity of the lake is inferred from a significant peak and then decline of P. simplex, and a reduction in the abundance and diversity of aquatic invertebrates. The artificial opening of the lake to the Pacific Ocean, which began in the late 1800s, is the likely cause of the recent increase in salinity. An increase in salinity may have also encouraged blooms of the halotolerant and hepatotoxic cyanobacteria Nodularia spumigena.

Seasonal and diurnal variations in ultraviolet-B and ultraviolet-A irradiances at and below the sea surface at Helgoland (North Sea) over a 6-year period

Ultraviolet(UV) radiation at four wavelengths (305, 320, 340 and 380 nm) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) were measured from May 1994 to October 1999 using Biospherical UV radiometers. A surface reference sensor located on the roof of the Marine Station at Helgoland recorded values every 5 min, and an equivalent profiling underwater sensor was used for measurements in the sea at approximately monthly intervals. The ratio of 305-nm radiation to PAR varied seasonally, with a 14-fold increase from winter to summer. A much weaker seasonal trend (ca. 1.5-fold) was apparent in the ratio of 320-nm radiation to PAR, but there was no seasonal trend in the ratios of 340- or 380-nm radiation to PAR. The year-to-year variations in 305-nm radiation were also much greater relative to PAR than for the other UV wavelengths, but there was no evidence of a change in the 305 nm:PAR ratio over the study period. The ratios of both 305- and 320-nm radiation to PAR increased from dawn to midday, but those of 340- and 380-nm radiation were almost constant through the day, except shortly before sunrise and after sunset when the proportions of 340- and 380-nm radiation increased. Underwater measurements of PAR and UV suggest that the 1% depth for 305-nm radiation was little more than 1 m, but this estimate is valid only for summer and autumn because, in other seasons, few reliable readings for 305-nm radiation could be obtained underwater, and no attenuation coefficient could be calculated. The 1% depths recorded for the other UV wavelengths in the middle 6 months of the year were 2.0 m for 320 nm, 2.6 m for 340 nm and 4.6 m for 380 nm, compared with 12 m for PAR, but the attenuation of all wavebands increased sharply in October and remained higher until March. An analysis of the influence of sun angle, total column ozone concentration, the proportion of skylight, and cloud cover on the ratio of UV wavelengths to PAR in surface irradiance demonstrated that solar angle has a greater influence than ozone concentration on the irradiance at 305 nm, and that the typical occurrence of ozone

Motivational change during shell fights in the hermit crab Pagurus bernhardus

During agonistic interactions the motivation of each contestant is expected to vary because of increased information and changes in fighting ability. In shell fights between hermit crabs over gastropod shells, attackers rap their shell in a series of bouts against that of the defender whereas defenders remain withdrawn into their shells until the encounter is resolved; either the defender is evicted from its shell or the attacker 'gives up' and the defender retains its shell. We assessed the motivational state of attackers for performing rapping by measuring the duration of startle responses elicited by a novel stimulus. We staged fights between pairs of crabs in six different groups defined by the potential gain in shell quality available to attackers (high or low) and by the point at which the novel stimulus was applied (prior to rapping, after one bout or after four bouts). Startle response duration decreased during the first four bouts of fighting and showed a U-shaped relationship with the relative difference in size between the crabs. There was, no difference in startle response duration between high- and low-gain groups. Individuals showing short startle responses were likely to be victorious and we conclude that the relationship between the relative size difference of the opponents and. startle duration reflects that between size difference and the cost of gaining an eviction. (C) 2001 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Land-use patterns and cultural change in the Middle to Late Bronze Age in Ireland: inferences from pollen records

In Ireland, the Middle to Late Bronze Age (1500-600 cal. B.C.) is characterised by alternating phases of prolific metalwork production (the Bishopsland and Dowris Phases) and apparent recessions (the Roscommon Phase and the Late Bronze Age-Iron Age transition). In this paper, these changes in material culture are placed in a socio-economic context by examining contemporary settlement and land-use patterns interpreted from the pollen record. The vegetation histories of six tephrochronologically-linked sites are presented that provide high-resolution and chronologically well-resolved insights into changes in landscape use over the Middle to Late Bronze Age. The records are compared with published pollen records in an attempt to discern if there are any trends of woodland clearance and abandonment from which changes in settlement patterns can be inferred. The results suggest that prolific metalworking industries correlate chronologically with expansive farming activity, which indicates that they were supported by a productive subsistence economy. Conversely, declines in metalwork production occur during periods when farming activity is generally less extensive and perhaps more centralised, and it is proposed that disparate socio-economic or –political factors, rather than a collapse of the subsistence economy, lies behind the demise of metalworking industries.

‘The Judiciary and Political Change in Africa: Developing Transitional Jurisprudence in Nigeria’

At a time of increased evaluations of law, human rights, and the rise of judicial power all over the globe, the work of most African judiciaries and the principles of the jurisprudence they espouse in promoting social justice remain an unlikely focus of comparative legal scholarship. This ought not to be so in view of the considerable activities of the courts on the continent in the dawn of the third wave of democratization. This article explores the work of the Nigerian Supreme Court in the political transition to democracy since 1999. Utilizing insights from the work of Ruti Teitel, it attempts to outline some of the major constitutional and extraconstitutional principles adopted by the Court in mediating intergovernmental contestations in the turbulent transition away from almost three decades of authoritarian military rule. It emerges that the task of fostering social transformation through the “weakest” branch seriously tasks the institutional integrity of the judiciary.

High density mangrove plantation enhances surface accretion, surface elevation change, and tree survival in coastal areas susceptible to sea-level rise

Survival, growth, above ground biomass accumulation, soil surface elevation dynamics and nitrogen accumulation in accreted sediments were studied in experimental treatments planted with four different densities (6.96, 3.26, 1.93 and 0.95 seedlings m-2) of the mangrove Rhizophora mucronata in Puttalam Lagoon, Sri Lanka. Measurements were taken over a period of 1171 days and were compared with those from unplanted controls. Trees at the lowest density showed significantly reduced survival, whilst measures of individual tree growth did not differ significantly among treatments. Rates of surface sediment accretion (means ± S.E.) were 13.0 (±1.3), 10.5 (±0.9), 8.4 (±0.3), 6.9 (±0.5) and 5.7 (±0.3) mm yr-1 at planting densities of 6.96, 3.26, 1.93, 0.95, and 0 (unplanted control) seedlings m-2, respectively, showing highly significant differences among treatments. Mean (± S.E.) rates of surface elevation change were much lower than rates of accretion at 2.8 (±0.2), 1.6 (±0.1), 1.1 (±0.2), 0.6 (±0.2) and -0.3 (±0.1) mm yr-1 for 6.96, 3.26, 1.93, 0.95, and 0 seedlings m-2, respectively. All planted treatments appeared to accumulate greater nitrogen concentrations in the sediment compared to the unplanted control, and suggests one potential causal mechanism for the facilitatory effects observed; high densities of plants potentially contribute to the accretion of greater amounts of nutrient rich sediment. While this potential process needs further study, this study demonstrated how higher densities of mangroves enhance rates of sediment accretion and surface elevation, processes that may be crucial in mangrove ecosystem adaptation to sea level rise. There was no evidence that increasing plant density evoked a trade-off with growth and survival of the planted trees. Rather facilitatory effects enhanced survival at high densities, suggesting that local land managers may be able to take advantage of plantation densities to help mitigate sea-level rise effects by encouraging positive soil surface elevation increment, and perhaps even greater nutrient retention to promote mangrove growth and ameliorate nearshore eutrophication in tropical island environments.

Carbon leakage revisited: unilateral climate policy with directed technical change

Using a stylized theoretical model, we argue that current economic analyses of climate policy tend to over-estimate the degree of carbon leakage, as they abstract from the effects of induced technological change. We analyse carbon leakage in a two-country model with directed technical change, where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions. Climate policy induces changes in relative prices, that cause carbon leakage through a terms-of-trade effect. However, these changes in relative prices also affect the incentives to innovate in different sectors. This leads to a counterbalancing induced-technology effect, which always reduces carbon leakage. We therefore conclude that the leakage rates reported in the literature may be too high, as these estimates neglect the effect of price changes on the incentives to innovate.

Carbon accumulation in peatlands of West Siberia over the last 2000 years

We use a network of cores from 77 peatland sites to determine controls on peat C content and peat C accumulation over the last 2000 years (since 2 ka) across Russia's West Siberian Lowland (WSL), the world's largest wetland region. Our results show a significant influence of fossil plant composition on peat C content, with peats dominated by Sphagnum having a lower C content. Radiocarbon-derived C accumulation since 2 ka at 23 sites is highly variable from site to site, but displays a significant N–S trend of decreasing accumulation at higher latitudes. Northern WSL peatlands show relatively small C accumulation of 7 to 35 kg C m-2 since 2 ka. In contrast, peatlands south of 60°N show larger accumulation of 42 to 88 kg C m-2. Carbon accumulation since 2 ka varies significantly with modern mean annual air temperature, with maximum C accumulation found between -1 and 0°C. Rates of apparent C accumulation since 2 ka show no significant relationship to long-term Holocene averages based on total C accumulation. A GIS-based extrapolation of our site data suggests that a substantial amount (~40%) of total WSL peat C has accumulated since 2 ka, with much of this accumulation south of 60°N. The large peatlands in the southern WSL may be an important component of the Eurasian terrestrial C sink, and future warming could result in a shift northward in long-term WSL C sequestration.