The collision branching process

We consider a branching model, which we call the collision branching process (CBP), that accounts for the effect of collisions, or interactions, between particles or individuals. We establish that there is a unique CBP, and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for it to be nonexplosive. We review results on extinction probabilities, and obtain explicit expressions for the probability of explosion and the expected hitting times. The upwardly skip-free case is studied in some detail.

A computational model of coupled heat and moisture transfer with phase change in granular sugar during varying environmental conditions

As part of a comprehensive effort to predict the development of caking in granular materials, a mathematical model is introduced to model simultaneous heat and moisture transfer with phase change in porous media when undergoing temperature oscillations/cycling. The resulting model partial differential equations were solved using finite-volume procedures in the context of the PHYSICA framework and then applied to the analysis of sugar in storage. The influence of temperature on absorption/desorption and diffusion coefficients is coupled into the transport equations. The temperature profile, the depth of penetration of the temperature oscillation into the bulk solid, and the solids moisture content distribution were first calculated, and these proved to be in good agreement with experimental data. Then, the influence of temperature oscillation on absolute humidity, moisture concentration, and moisture migration for different parameters and boundary conditions was examined. As expected, the results show that moisture near boundary regions responds faster than farther away from them with surface temperature changes. The moisture absorption and desorption in materials occurs mainly near boundary regions (where interactions with the environment are more pronounced). Small amounts of solids moisture content, driven by both temperature and vapour concentration gradients, migrate between boundary and center with oscillating temperature.

Forward and inverse transport of particulate matter and gaseous pollutants affecting the region bordering the English Channel

The ATTMA "Aerosol Transport in the Trans-Manche Atmosphere" project investigates the transportation and dispersion of air pollutants across the English Channel, in collaboration with local authorities and other Universities in Southern England and Northern France. The research is concerned with both forward and inverse (receptor based) tracking. Two alternative dispersion simulation methods are used: (a) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models, (b) Eulerian Finite Volume type models. This paper is concerned with part (a), the simulations based on LPD models. Two widely applied LPD models are used and compared. Since in many observed episodes the source of pollution is traced outside the region of interest, long range, trans-continental transport is also investigated.

Modelling high particulate matter and ozone episodes in the Trans-Manche region

There is concern in the Cross-Channel region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France) and Kent (Great Britain), regarding the extent of atmospheric pollution detected in the area from emitted gaseous (VOC, NOx, S02)and particulate substances. In particular, the air quality of the Cross-Channel or "Trans-Manche" region is highly affected by the heavily industrial area of Dunkerque, in addition to transportation sources linked to cross-channel traffic in Kent and Calais, posing threats to the environment and human health. In the framework of the cross-border EU Interreg IIIA activity, the joint Anglo-French project, ATTMA, has been commissioned to study Aerosol Transport in the Trans-Manche Atmosphere. Using ground monitoring data from UK and French networks and with the assistance of satellite images the project aims to determine dispersion patterns. and identify sources responsible for the pollutants. The findings of this study will increase awareness and have a bearing on future air quality policy in the region. Public interest is evident by the presence of local authorities on both sides of the English Channel as collaborators. The research is based on pollution transport simulations using (a) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models, (b) an Eulerian Receptor Based model. This paper is concerned with part (a), the LPD Models. Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models are often used to numerically simulate the dispersion of a passive tracer in the planetary boundary layer by calculating the Lagrangian trajectories of thousands of notional particles. In this contribution, the project investigated the use of two widely used particle dispersion models: the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and the model FLEXPART. In both models forward tracking and inverse (or·. receptor-based) modes are possible. Certain distinct pollution episodes have been selected from the monitor database EXPER/PF and from UK monitoring stations, and their likely trajectory predicted using prevailing weather data. Global meteorological datasets were downloaded from the ECMWF MARS archive. Part of the difficulty in identifying pollution sources arises from the fact that much of the pollution outside the monitoring area. For example heightened particulate concentrations are to originate from sand storms in the Sahara, or volcanic activity in Iceland or the Caribbean work identifies such long range influences. The output of the simulations shows that there are notable differences between the formulations of and Hysplit, although both models used the same meteorological data and source input, suggesting that the identification of the primary emissions during air pollution episodes may be rather uncertain.

[Book review] The Oxford Murders

Review of the book 'The Oxford Murders' by Guillermo Martínez (trans. by Sonia Soto), Abacus, 2005, £9.99, pp 208, ISBN 0-349-11721-7

A systematic comparison of buildingEXODUS predictions with experimental data from the Stapelfeldt trials and the Milburn House evacuation

In this paper, the buildingEXODUS evacuation model is described and discussed and attempts at qualitative and quantitative model validation are presented. The data sets used for validation are the Stapelfeldt and Milburn House evacuation data. As part of the validation exercise, the sensitivity of the building-EXODUS predictions to a range of variables is examined, including occupant drive, occupant location, exit flow capacity, exit size, occupant response times and geometry definition. An important consideration that has been highlighted by this work is that any validation exercise must be scrutinised to identify both the results generated and the considerations and assumptions on which they are based. During the course of the validation exercise, both data sets were found to be less than ideal for the purpose of validating complex evacuation. However, the buildingEXODUS evacuation model was found to be able to produce reasonable qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experimental data.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Two-Machine Shop Scheduling with an Uncapacitated Interstage Transporter

In this paper we study the two-machine flow shop and open shop problems to minimize the makespan with a single interstage transporter that may carry any number of jobs between the machines at a time. For each of these problems we present a best possible approximation algorithm within a class of schedules with at most two shipments. As a by-product of this research, for the problem of minimizing the makespan on parallel identical machines we analyze the ratio of the makespan for a non-preemptive schedule over the makespan of a preemptive schedule.

Single machine scheduling and due date assignment under series-parallel precedence constraints

We consider a single machine due date assignment and scheduling problem of minimizing holding costs with no tardy jobs tinder series parallel and somewhat wider class of precedence constraints as well as the properties of series-parallel graphs.

Two-machine shop scheduling: Compromise between flexibility and makespan value

In this paper, we consider the problem of providing flexibility to solutions of two-machine shop scheduling problems. We use the concept of group-scheduling to characterize a whole set of schedules so as to provide more choice to the decision-maker at any decision point. A group-schedule is a sequence of groups of permutable operations defined on each machine where each group is such that any permutation of the operations inside the group leads to a feasible schedule. Flexibility of a solution and its makespan are often conflicting, thus we search for a compromise between a low number of groups and a small value of makespan. We resolve the complexity status of the relevant problems for the two-machine flow shop, job shop and open shop. A number of approximation algorithms are developed and their worst-case performance is analyzed. For the flow shop, an effective heuristic algorithm is proposed and the results of computational experiments are reported.

Two-machine flow shop scheduling problems with no-wait jobs

In this paper we provide a fairly complete complexity classification of various versions of the two-machine permutation flow shop scheduling problem to minimize the makespan in which some of the jobs have to be processed with no-wait in process. For some version, we offer a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme and a 43-approximation algorithm.

Pre-emptive scheduling problems with controllable processing times

We consider a range of single machine and identical parallel machine pre-emptive scheduling models with controllable processing times. For each model we study a single criterion problem to minimize the compression cost of the processing times subject to the constraint that all due dates should be met. We demonstrate that each single criterion problem can be formulated in terms of minimizing a linear function over a polymatroid, and this justifies the greedy approach to its solution. A unified technique allows us to develop fast algorithms for solving both single criterion problems and bicriteria counterparts.