Predicting risk and benefit a priori in biological control of invasive plant species: a systems modelling approach

While the method using specialist herbivores in managing invasive plants (classical biological control) is regarded as relatively safe and cost-effective in comparison to other methods of management, the rarity of strict monophagy among insect herbivores illustrates that, like any management option, biological control is not risk-free. The challenge for classical biological control is therefore to predict risks and benefits a priori. In this study we develop a simulation model that may aid in this process. We use this model to predict the risks and benefits of introducing the chrysomelid beetle Charidotis auroguttata to manage the invasive liana Macfadyena unguis-cati in Australia. Preliminary host-specificity testing of this herbivore indicated that there was limited feeding on a non-target plant, although the non-target was only able to sustain some transitions of the life cycle of the herbivore. The model includes herbivore, target and non-target life history and incorporates spillover dynamics of populations of this herbivore from the target to the non-target under a variety of scenarios. Data from studies of this herbivore in the native range and under quarantine were used to parameterize the model and predict the relative risks and benefits of this herbivore when the target and non-target plants co-occur. Key model outputs include population dynamics on target (apparent benefit) and non-target (apparent risk) and fitness consequences to the target (actual benefit) and non-target plant (actual risk) of herbivore damage. The model predicted that risk to the non-target became unacceptable (i.e. significant negative effects on fitness) when the ratio of target to non-target in a given patch ranged from 1:1 to 3:2. By comparing the current known distribution of the non-target and the predicted distribution of the target we were able to identify regions in Australia where the agent may be pose an unacceptable risk. By considering risk and benefit simultaneously, we highlight how such a simulation modelling approach can assist scientists and regulators in making more objective decisions a priori, on the value of releasing specialist herbivores as biological control agents.

Horsing around – Using equine facilitated learning to support the development of social-emotional competence of students at risk of school failure

The social-emotional issues some students experience can place them at risk of school failure. Traditional methods of support can be ineffective or not sustainable and new alternative approaches need to be attempted to support social-emotional competency, school engagement and success for students at risk. This paper discusses preliminary outcomes of an equine facilitated learning (EFL) programme specifically designed to focus on using horses to improve the resilience and social-emotional competency in students perceived as ‘at risk’ of school failure. This qualitative exploratory study used interviews and observations over a six month period to listen to the voices of the students themselves about their experiences of EFL. Initial findings from the pilot study suggest that EFL programmes can be a novel and motivating way to promote resilience training and social-emotional development of students at risk of failure and, in turn, improve their level of engagement and connection with school environments.

Short biceps femoris fascicles and eccentric knee flexor weakness increase the risk of hamstring injury in elite football (soccer): A prospective cohort study

Background/Aim: To investigate the role of eccentric knee flexor strength, between-limb imbalance and biceps femoris long head (BFlh) fascicle length on the risk of a future hamstring strain injury (HSI). Methods: Elite soccer players (n=152) from eight different teams participated. Eccentric knee flexor strength during the Nordic hamstring exercise and BFlh fascicle length were assessed at the beginning of pre-season. The occurrences of a HSI following this were recorded by the team medical staff. Relative risk (RR) was determined for univariate data, and logistic regression was employed for multivariate data. Results: Twenty-seven new HSIs were reported. Eccentric knee flexor strength below 337N (RR = 4.4; 95% CI = 1.1 to 17.5) and BFlh fascicles shorter than 10.56cm (RR = 4.1; 95% CI=1.9 to 8.7) significantly increased the risk of a subsequent HSI. Multivariate logistic regression revealed significant effects when combinations of age, previous history of HSI, eccentric knee flexor strength and BFlh fascicle length were explored. From these analyses the likelihood of a future HSI in older athletes or those with a previous HSI history was reduced if high levels of eccentric knee flexor strength and longer BFlh fascicles were present. Conclusions: The presence of short BFlh fascicles and low levels of eccentric strength in elite soccer players increase the risk of a future HSI. The greater risk of a future HSI in older players or those with a previous HSI is reduced when they possess longer BFlh fascicles and high levels of eccentric strength.

Lower preoperative quality of life increases postoperative risk of adverse events in women with endometrial cancer: results from the LACE trial

Objective: To examine the association between preoperative quality of life (QoL) and postoperative adverse events in women treated for endometrial cancer. Methods: 760 women with apparent Stage I endometrial cancer were randomised into a clinical trial evaluating laparoscopic versus open surgery. This analysis includes women with preoperative QoL measurements, from the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy- General (FACT-G) questionnaire, and who were followed up for at least 6 weeks after surgery (n=684). The outcomes for this study were defined as (1) the occurrence of moderate to severe AEs adverse events within 6 months (Common Toxicology Criteria (CTC) grade ≥3); and (2) any Serious Adverse Event (SAE). The association between preoperative QoL and the occurrence of AE was examined, after controlling for baseline comorbidity and other factors. Results: After adjusting for other factors, odds of occurrence of AE of CTC grade ≥3 were significantly increased with each unit decrease in baseline FACT-G score (OR=1.02, 95% CI 1.00-1.03, p=0.030), which was driven by physical well-being (PWB) (OR=1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.13, p=0.0002) and functional well-being subscales (FWB) (OR=1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07, p=0.035). Similarly, odds of SAE occurrence were significantly increased with each unit decrease in baseline FACT-G score (OR=1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.04, p=0.011), baseline PWB (OR=1.11, 95% CI 1.06-1.16, p<0.0001) or baseline FWB subscales (OR=1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.10, p=0.0077). Conclusion: Women with early endometrial cancer presenting with lower QoL prior to surgery are at higher risk of developing a serious adverse event following surgery. Funding: Cancer Council Queensland, Cancer Council New South Wales, Cancer Council Victoria, Cancer Council, Western Australia; NHMRC project grant 456110; Cancer Australia project grant 631523; The Women and Infants Research Foundation, Western Australia; Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital Foundation; Wesley Research Institute; Gallipoli Research Foundation; Gynetech; TYCO Healthcare, Australia; Johnson and Johnson Medical, Australia; Hunter New England Centre for Gynaecological Cancer; Genesis Oncology Trust; and Smart Health Research Grant QLD Health.

Tools to manage climate risk in cropping (Australia).

Because of the variable and changing environment, advisors and farmers are seeking systems that provide risk management support at a number of time scales. The Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit, Toowoomba, Australia has developed a suite of tools to assist advisors and farmers to better manage risk in cropping. These tools range from simple rainfall analysis tools (Rainman, HowWet, HowOften) through crop simulation tools (WhopperCropper and YieldProphet) to the most complex, APSFarm, a whole-farm analysis tool. Most are derivatives of the APSIM crop model. These tools encompass a range of complexity and potential benefit to both the farming community and for government policy. This paper describes, the development and usage of two specific products; WhopperCropper and APSFarm. WhopperCropper facilitates simulation-aided discussion of growers' exposure to risk when comparing alternative crop input options. The user can readily generate 'what-if' scenarios that separate the major influences whilst holding other factors constant. Interactions of the major inputs can also be tested. A manager can examine the effects of input levels (and Southern Oscillation Index phase) to broadly determine input levels that match their attitude to risk. APSFarm has been used to demonstrate that management changes can have different effects in short and long time periods. It can be used to test local advisors and farmers' knowledge and experience of their desired rotation system. This study has shown that crop type has a larger influence than more conservative minimum soil water triggers in the long term. However, in short term dry periods, minimum soil water triggers and maximum area of the various crops can give significant financial gains.

Risk Minimizing Option Pricing in a Semi-Markov Modulated Market

We address risk minimizing option pricing in a semi-Markov modulated market where the floating interest rate depends on a finite state semi-Markov process. The growth rate and the volatility of the stock also depend on the semi-Markov process. Using the Föllmer–Schweizer decomposition we find the locally risk minimizing price for European options and the corresponding hedging strategy. We develop suitable numerical methods for computing option prices.

The role of fruit traits of bird-dispersed plants in invasiveness and weed risk assessment

Aim: Birds play a major role in the dispersal of seeds of many fleshy-fruited invasive plants. The fruits that birds choose to consume are influenced by fruit traits. However, little is known of how the traits of invasive plant fruits contribute to invasiveness or to their use by frugivores. We aim to gain a greater understanding of these relationships to improve invasive plant management. Location: South-east Queensland, Australia. Methods: We measure a variety of fruit morphology, pulp nutrient and phenology traits of a suite of bird-dispersed alien plants. Frugivore richness of these aliens was derived from the literature. Using regressions and multivariate methods, we investigate relationships between fruit traits, frugivore richness and invasiveness. Results: Plant invasiveness was negatively correlated to fruit size, and all highly invasive species had quite similar fruit morphology [smaller fruits, seeds of intermediate size and few (<10) seeds per fruit]. Lower pulp water was the only pulp nutrient trait associated with invasiveness. There were strong positive relationships between the diversity of bird frugivores and plant invasiveness, and in the diversity of bird frugivores in the study region and another part of the plants' alien range. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that weed risk assessments (WRA) and predictions of invasive success for bird-dispersed plants can be improved. Scoring criteria for WRA regarding fruit size would need to be system-specific, depending on the fruit-processing capabilities of local frugivores. Frugivore richness could be quantified in the plant's natural range, its invasive range elsewhere, or predictions made based on functionally similar fruits.

Guidance for addressing the Australian Weed Risk Assessment questions

This paper provides guidance on how to address the 49 questions of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) system. The WRA was developed in Australia in 1999, and has since been widely adapted for different regions. As interest in implementation and results comparison has increased, the issue of consistency in answering and scoring the questions has become important. As a result, this guidance was developed during the 2007 International WRA Workshop. Suggestions on search methods, data sources and examples are also provided.

Application of a model to assess aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

When exposed to hot (22-35 degrees C) and dry climatic conditions in the field during the final 4-6 weeks of pod filling, peanuts (Arachis hypogaea L.) can accumulate highly carcinogenic and immuno-suppressing aflatoxins. Forecasting of the risk posed by these conditions can assist in minimizing pre-harvest contamination. A model was therefore developed as part of the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) peanut module, which calculated an aflatoxin risk index (ARI) using four temperature response functions when fractional available soil water was <0.20 and the crop was in the last 0.40 of the pod-filling phase. ARI explained 0.95 (P <= 0.05) of the variation in aflatoxin contamination, which varied from 0 to c. 800 mu g/kg in 17 large-scale sowings in tropical and four sowings in sub-tropical environments carried out in Australia between 13 November and 16 December 2007. ARI also explained 0.96 (P <= 0.01) of the variation in the proportion of aflatoxin-contaminated loads (>15 mu g/kg) of peanuts in the Kingaroy region of Australia during the period between the 1998/99 and 2007/08 seasons. Simulation of ARI using historical climatic data from 1890 to 2007 indicated a three-fold increase in its value since 1980 compared to the entire previous period. The increase was associated with increases in ambient temperature and decreases in rainfall. To facilitate routine monitoring of aflatoxin risk by growers in near real time, a web interface of the model was also developed. The ARI predicted using this interface for eight growers correlated significantly with the level of contamination in crops (r=095, P <= 0.01). These results suggest that ARI simulated by the model is a reliable indicator of aflatoxin contamination that can be used in aflatoxin research as well as a decision-support tool to monitor pre-harvest aflatoxin risk in peanuts.

Early harvest and ensilage of forage sorghum infected with ergot (Claviceps africana) reduces the risk of livestock poisoning.

Sorghum ergot produces dihydroergosine (DHES) and related alkaloids, which cause hyperthermia in cattle. Proportions of infected panicles (grain heads), leaves and stems were determined in two forage sorghum crops extensively infected 2 to 4 weeks prior to sampling and the panicles were assayed for DHES. Composite samples from each crop, plus a third grain variety crop, were coarsely chopped and half of each sealed in plastic buckets for 6 weeks to simulate ensilation. The worst-infected panicles contained up to 55 mg DHES/kg, but dilution reduced average concentrations of DHES in crops to approximately 1 mg/kg, a relatively safe level for cattle. Ensilation significantly (P = 0.043) reduced mean DHES concentrations from 0.85 to 0.46 mg/kg.

Pyrrolizidine Alkaloids in Crotalaria Taxa from Northern Australia: Risk to Grazing Livestock.

Crotalaria species containing hepatotoxic pyrrolizidine alkaloids grow widely in pastures in northern Australia and have sporadically poisoned grazing livestock. The diverse Crotalaria taxa present in these pastures include varieties, subspecies, and chemotypes not previously chemically examined. This paper reports the pyrrolizidine alkaloid composition and content of 24 Crotalaria taxa from this region and assesses the risk of poisoning in livestock consuming them. Alkaloids present in C. goreensis, C. aridicola subsp. densifolia, and C. medicaginea var. neglecta lack the esterified 1,2-unsaturated functionality required for pyrrole adduct formation, and these taxa are not hepatotoxic. Taxa with high levels of hepatotoxic alkaloids, abundance, and biomass pose the greatest risk to livestock health, particularly C. novae-hollandiae subsp. novae-hollandiae, C. ramosissima, C. retusa var. retusa, and C. crispata. Other species containing moderate alkaloid levels, C. spectabilis and C. mitchellii, also pose significant risk when locally abundant.

Mandatory Reporting and the Difficulties Identifying and Responding to Risk of Severe Neglect: A Response Requiring a Rethink

Neglect of children is a significant social issue worldwide and is typically the most frequently reported form of maltreatment in Western nations, with its severe forms sometimes resulting in significant illness and disablement or death. Yet, paradoxically, it remains ‘neglected’ and largely in the shadow of physical and sexual abuse, often being viewed as less serious despite the real-life consequences of its insidious and compounding nature and the lasting damage it causes to intergenerational familial relationships and the life outcomes of those affected. This chapter explores the many complex forms of child neglect, its causes and impacts and the strategies to prevent it. In particular, a critical standpoint is taken in analysing the rationale and merits of mandatory reporting of neglect and their effects, systemically and for children.

The association between perception of health during pregnancy and the risk of cardiovascular disease: A prospective study

There is some evidence that self-rated perceptions of health are predictive of objective health outcomes, including cardiovascular disease, and mortality. The objective of this study was to examine the prospective association between perceptions of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factors of mothers 21 years after the pregnancy. Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community-based prospective birth cohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1981. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1–3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the pregnancy when compared with women with a straight forward pregnancy (event rate of 5.2 versus 2.6%). Women who experienced complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during their pregnancy were also at 30% increased odds (adjusted OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0–1.6) of having hypertension 21years later (event rate of 25.7 versus 20%). As a whole, our study sug- gests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward preg- nancy were likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21years after that pregnancy.

Reduced risk of acute poisoning in Australian cattle from used motor oils after introduction of lead-free petrol.

Lead (Pb) poisoning of cattle has been relatively common in Australia and sump oil has been identified as an important cause of Pb toxicity for cattle because they seem to have a tendency to drink it. Lead-free petrol has been available in Australia since 1975, so the aim of this study was to assess the current risk to cattle from drinking used automotive oils. Sump or gear box oil was collected from 56 vehicles being serviced. The low levels of Pb found suggest that the removal of leaded petrol from the Australian market as a public health measure has benefited cattle by eliminating the risk of acute poisoning from used engine oil.

Independent replication and meta-analysis for endometriosis risk loci

Endometriosis is a complex disease that affects 6-10% of women in their reproductive years and 20-50% of women with infertility. Genome-wide and candidate-gene association studies for endometriosis have identified 10 independent risk loci, and of these, nine (rs7521902, rs13394619, rs4141819, rs6542095, rs1519761, rs7739264, rs12700667, rs1537377, and rs10859871) are polymorphic in European populations. Here we investigate the replication of nine SNP loci in 998 laparoscopically and histologically confirmed endometriosis cases and 783 disease-free controls from Belgium. SNPs rs7521902, rs13394619, and rs6542095 show nominally significant (p <.05) associations with endometriosis, while the directions of effect for seven SNPs are consistent with the original reports. Association of rs6542095 at the IL1A locus with 'All' (p =.066) and 'Grade-B' (p =.01) endometriosis is noteworthy because this is the first successful replication in an independent population. Meta-analysis with the published results yields genome-wide significant evidence for rs7521902, rs13394619, rs6542095, rs12700667, rs7739264, and rs1537377. Notably, three coding variants in GREB1 (near rs13394619) and CDKN2B-AS1 (near rs1537377) also showed nominally significant associations with endometriosis. Overall, this study provides important replication in a uniquely characterized independent population, and indicates that the majority of the original genome-wide association findings are not due to chance alone. © The Author(s) 2015.