Why did London become the main money market? Monetary Policy, Arbitrage and European Money Market Integration in 18th century

How did the leading capital market start to attract international bullion? Why did London become the main money market? Monetary regulations, including the charges for minting money and the restrictions on bullion exchange, have played the key role in defining the direction of the flow of international bullion. Countries that abolished minting charges and permitted the free movement of bullion were able to attract international bullion, and countries that applied minting taxes suffered an outflow of bullion. In these cases monetary authorities tried to limit bullion movement through prohibitions on domestic bullion exchange at a free price, and tariffs and quantitative restrictions on bullion exports. The paper illustrates the logic of international monetary flow in the 18th century, using empirical evidence for England, France and Spain. The first section defines and measures monetary policy, and the second section introduces minting charges into the arbitrage equation in order to explain the logic of bullion flow between the pairs of nations England-France, England-Spain and France-Spain. The conclusion emphasises the importance of monetary policy in the creation of leading money markets.

La Mayor dotación de capital humano y sus problemas de adaptación en el mercado de trabajo español, 1986-2005

Desde 1975 y sobre todo a partir de su incorporación a la Unión Europea en 1986, los cambios que se han producido en la estructura económica y productiva española han favorecido la convergencia de la mayoría de sus indicadores económicos con los de los países de la Unión. Sin embargo, no ha habido el mismo éxito por lo que se refiere al mercado de trabajo. Esta comunicación es, por una parte, el resultado de mi trabajo de investigación sobre la evolución de la educación superior y el mercado de trabajo en España durante las últimas cuatro décadas del último siglo y, por otra parte, el punto de partida de un estudio más profundo sobre las diferencias regionales en la correspondencia entre la oferta y la demanda de trabajo cualificado en España y en Europa. El objetivo de esta comunicación es comparar la evolución de los niveles educativos y de los principales indicadores del mercado de trabajo en España y en otros países europeos (Alemania, Francia, Grecia, Italia, Portugal y Reino Unido) desde 1986, año de incorporación de España a la Unión Europea, hasta la actualidad, para determinar los factores o mecanismos que influyen en el mercado de trabajo cualificado español y su difícil convergencia con los de otros países europeos.

Codes of best practice in competitive markets for managers

We study firms' corporate governance in environments where possibly heterogeneous shareholders compete for possibly heterogeneous managers. A firm, formed by a shareholder and a manager, can sign either an incentive contract or a contract including a Code of Best Practice. A Code allows for a better manager's control but makes manager's decisions hard to react when market conditions change. It tends to be adopted in markets with low volatility and in low-competitive environments. The firms with the best projects tend to adopt the Code when managers are not too heterogeneous while the best managers tend to be hired through incentive contracts when the projects are similar. Although the matching between shareholders and managers is often positively assortative, the shareholders with the best projects might be willing to renounce to hire the best managers, signing contracts including Codes with lower-ability managers.

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.

Pareto-improving optimal capital and labor taxes

We show a standard model where the optimal tax reform is to cut labor taxes and leave capital taxes very high in the short and medium run. Only in the very long run would capital taxes be zero. Our model is a version of Chamley??s, with heterogeneous agents, without lump sum transfers, an upper bound on capital taxes, and a focus on Pareto improving plans. For our calibration labor taxes should be low for the first ten to twenty years, while capital taxes should be at their maximum. This policy ensures that all agents benefit from the tax reform and that capital grows quickly after when the reform begins. Therefore, the long run optimal tax mix is the opposite from the short and medium run tax mix. The initial labor tax cut is financed by deficits that lead to a positive long run level of government debt, reversing the standard prediction that government accumulates savings in models with optimal capital taxes. If labor supply is somewhat elastic benefits from tax reform are high and they can be shifted entirely to capitalists or workers by varying the length of the transition. With inelastic labor supply there is an increasing part of the equilibrium frontier, this means that the scope for benefitting the workers is limited and the total benefits from reforming taxes are much lower.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Preferred suppliers in auction markets

In a procurement setting, this paper examines agreements between a buyer and one of the suppliers which would increase their joint surplus. The provisions of such agreements depend on the buyer's ability to design the rules of the final procurement auction. When the buyer has no such ability, their joint surplus can be increased by an agreement which grants to the preferred supplier a right-of-first-refusal on the lowest price offer from the other suppliers. When the buyer does have this ability, one agreement which maximizes their joint surplus includes a revelation game for the cost of the preferred supplier and a reserve price in the procurement auction based on that cost.

Entrepreneurial intention, cognitive social capital and culture: empirical anaylisis for Spain and Taiwan

The main purpose of this paper is building a research model to integrate the socioeconomic concept of social capital within intentional models of new firm creation. Nevertheless, some researchers have found cultural differences between countries and regions to have an effect on economic development. Therefore, a second objective of this study is exploring whether those cultural differences affect entrepreneurial cognitions. Research design and methodology: Two samples of last year university students from Spain and Taiwan are studied through an Entrepreneurial Intention Questionnaire (EIQ). Structural equation models (Partial Least Squares) are used to test the hypotheses. The possible existence of differences between both sub-samples is also empirically explored through a multigroup analysis. Main outcomes and results: The proposed model explains 54.5% of the variance in entrepreneurial intention. Besides, there are some significant differences between both subsamples that could be attributed to cultural diversity. Conclusions: This paper has shown the relevance of cognitive social capital in shaping individuals’ entrepreneurial intentions across different countries. Furthermore, it suggests that national culture could be shaping entrepreneurial perceptions, but not cognitive social capital. Therefore, both cognitive social capital and culture (made up essentially of values and beliefs), may act together to reinforce the entrepreneurial intention.

Portabilidad del capital humano y asimilación de los inmigrantes. Evidencia para España

La literatura sobre asimilación de los inmigrantes ha destacado la portabilidad imperfecta del capital humano acumulado por éstos en su país de origen (Chiswick, 1978; Friedberg, 2000). Ello explicaría la escasa asimilación en el momento de llegar al nuevo país, así como la gran brecha salarial inicial. Recientemente, una serie de trabajos (Chiswick y Miller, 2007 o Green, Kler y Leeves, 2007, entre otros) han abordado este tema desde la perspectiva de la sobreeducación. Enmarcado en esta literatura, el presente trabajo analiza la portabilidad del capital humano de los inmigrantes al mercado de trabajo español en función de su origen geográfico. Asimismo, trata de contrastar para el caso español las regularidades empíricas más destacables de dichos trabajos. Los resultados obtenidos señalan un distinto grado de transferibilidad del capital humano según origen geográfico, siendo superior la del capital humano acumulado en países de elevado desarrollo o de cultura e idioma próximos y menor la del procedente de países en desarrollo y culturas distantes. La evidencia es relativamente dispar para ambos componentes del capital humano: mientras que ello es especialmente claro para los estudios, resulta menos evidente para la experiencia. Se confirma, asimismo, para el caso español que los inmigrantes padecen una mayor sobreeducación, tanto en incidencia como en intensidad, y que ello implica una mayor penalización salarial relativa, con resultados siempre peores para inmigrantes del segundo grupo de países. A medida que los inmigrantes prolongan su estancia en España existe un proceso de asimilación, excepto para asiáticos y en algunas especificaciones tampoco para los procedentes del África subsahariana, si bien la velocidad de asimilación es notablemente lenta.

Una propuesta de evaluación de las externalidades de capital humano en la empresa

Empleando la encuesta de estructura salarial se plantea una propuesta de estimación de externalidades de capital humano intraempresa que permite relajar las restricciones introducidas por las especificaciones que la literatura empírica existente ha usado. En concreto, la metodología propuesta evalúa las externalidades de capital humano aprovechando al máximo la variabilidad en la muestra, al permitir que todos los coeficientes de las ecuaciones estimadas varíen con el nivel de capital humano del establecimiento, relajando la hipótesis implícita de linealidad entre el efecto de externalidad y el nivel educativo de los individuos.

Capital humano: un análisis comparativo Catalunya-España

En este documento se analizan comparativamente algunos aspectos relativos al capital humano de la economía catalana y española. En primer lugar se compara la dotación de capital humano tanto desde una metodología más tradicional, como es el caso de años de educación, como desde el punto de vista de la valoración del activo mediante actualización de flujos salariales a lo largo del ciclo vital de los individuos. Los resultados muestran indicios de una cierta desaceleración en el crecimiento del stock de capital humano. Adicionalmente, se lleva a cabo una estimación de la existencia de externalidades de capital humano intra-establecimiento, con datos de la Encuesta de Estructura Salarial, desarrollando una metodología menos restrictiva que la tradicional. Los resultados muestran comportamientos similares de la economía española y catalana, apuntando a la existencia de externalidades.

I have faith in my thing, you know what I mean? Mixed method elements on individual investments on religious markets.

In contemporary society, religious signification and secular systems mix and influence each other. Holistic conceptions of a world in which man is integrated harmoniously with nature meet representations of a world run by an immanent God. On the market of the various systems, the individual goes from one system to another, following his immediate needs and expectations without necessarily leaving any marks in a meaningful long term system. This article presents the first results of an ongoing research in Switzerland on contemporary religion focusing on (new) paths of socialization of modern that individuals and the various (non-) belief systems that they simultaneously develop

The Global Dimension to Fiscal Sustainability

This paper examines the issue of fiscal sustainability in emerging market countries and industrial countries. We highlight the importance of the time series properties of the primary surplus and debt, and find evidence of a positive long run relationship. Consequently we emphasise, that especially for emerging markets, it is important to recognise the implications of global capital market shocks for fiscal sustainability, a relationship which has hitherto been ignored in the empirical literature. Using a factor model we demonstrate that the relationship between deficit and debt is conditional upon a global factor and we suggest that this global factor is related to world-wide liquidity. We also demonstrate that this acts as a constraint on emerging market economies’ fiscal policy.

Recruitment and retention incentives in health labour markets: an analysis of participation in NHS Scotland following Dental Vocational

This paper uses a unique individual level administrative data set to analyse the participation of health professionals in the NHS after training. The data set contains information on over 1,000 dentists who received Dental Vocational Training in Scotland between 1995 and 2006. Using a dynamic nonlinear panel data model, we estimate the determinants of post-training participation. We nd there is signi cant persistence in these data and are able to show that the persistence arises from state dependence and individual heterogeneity. This finding has implications for the structure of policies designed to increase participation rates. We apply this empirical framework to assess the accuracy of predictions for workforce forecasting, and to provide a preliminary estimate of the impact of one of the recruitment and retention policies available to dentists in Scotland.