854 resultados para Brown Band Disease, Maldives, prevalence, host range, coral diseases


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Coral reefs face unprecedented threats throughout most of their range. Poorly planned coastal development has contributed increased nutrients and sewage contamination to coastal waters, smothering some corals and contributing to overgrowth by macroalgae. My approach to assessing the degree to which coral reef ecosystems have been influenced by terrestrial and anthropogenic organic carbon inputs is through the use of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stable isotopes and lipid biomarkers in a marine protected area, the Coral Reef System of Veracruz: Parque Nacional Sistema Arrecifal Veracruzano (PNSAV) in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Firstly, I used a C and N stable isotope mixing model and a calculated fatty acid (FA) retention factor to reveal the primary producer sources that fuel the coral reef food web. Secondly, I used lipid classes, FA and sterol biomarkers to determine production of terrestrial and marine biogenic material of nutritional quality to pelagic and benthic organisms. Finally, I used coprostanol to determine pollutant loading from sewage in the suspended particulate matter. Results indicate that phytoplankton is the major source of essential metabolite FA for marine fish and that dietary energy from terrestrial sources such as mangroves are transferred to juvenile fish, while seagrass non-essential FA are transferred to the entire food web mainly in the rainy season. Sea urchins may be the main consumers of brown macroalgae, especially in the dry season, while surgeon fish prefer red algae in both dry and rainy seasons. C and N isotopic values and the ratio C:N suggest that fertilizer is the principal source of nitrogen to macroalgae. Thus nitrogen supply also favored phytoplankton and seagrass growth leading to a better nutritional condition and high retention of organic carbon in the food web members during the rainy season when river influence increases. However, the great star coral Montastrea cavernosa nutritional condition decreased significantly in the rainy season. The nearest river to the PNSAV was polluted in the dry season; however, a dilution effect was detected in the rainy season, when some coral reefs were contaminated. In 2013, a new treatment plant started working in the area. I would suggest monitoring δ¹⁵N and the C: N ratio in macroalgae as indicators of the nitrogen input and coprostanol as an indicator of human feces pollution in order to verify the efficiency of the new treatment plant as part of the management program of the PNSAV.

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Author Disclosure Statement No competing financial interests exist.

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Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is the largest cardiac cause of morbidity and mortality in the world's youth. Early detection of RHD through echocardiographic screening in asymptomatic children may identify an early stage of disease, when secondary prophylaxis has the greatest chance of stopping disease progression. Latent RHD signifies echocardiographic evidence of RHD with no known history of acute rheumatic fever and no clinical symptoms.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the prevalence of latent RHD among children ages 5-16 in Lilongwe, Malawi.

DESIGN: This is a cross-sectional study in which children ages 5 through 16 were screened for RHD using echocardiography.

SETTING: Screening was conducted in 3 schools and surrounding communities in the Lilongwe district of Malawi between February and April 2014.

OUTCOME MEASURES: Children were diagnosed as having no, borderline, or definite RHD as defined by World Heart Federation criteria. The primary reader completed offline reads of all studies. A second reader reviewed all of the studies diagnosed as RHD, plus a selection of normal studies. A third reader served as tiebreaker for discordant diagnoses. The distribution of results was compared between gender, location, and age categories using Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS: The prevalence of latent RHD was 3.4% (95% CI = 2.45, 4.31), with 0.7% definite RHD and 2.7% borderline RHD. There was no significant differences in prevalence between gender (P = .44), site (P = .6), urban vs. peri-urban (P = .75), or age (P = .79). Of those with definite RHD, all were diagnosed because of pathologic mitral regurgitation (MR) and 2 morphologic features of the mitral valve. Of those with borderline RHD, most met the criteria by having pathological MR (92.3%).

CONCLUSION: Malawi has a high rate of latent RHD, which is consistent with other results from sub-Saharan Africa. This study strongly supports the need for a RHD prevention and control program in Malawi.

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Transfusion-associated graft-versus-host disease (TA-GVHD) is a rare complication of transfusion of nonirradiated blood components. It usually affects children in high-risk groups, including those who have primary immunodeficiencies (PIDs). It usually presents with skin, hepatic, digestive, and hematologic involvement and is normally fatal.

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Vector-borne disease emergence in recent decades has been associated with different environmental drivers including changes in habitat, hosts and climate. Lyme borreliosis is among the most important vector-borne diseases in the Northern hemisphere and is an emerging disease in Scotland. Transmitted by Ixodid tick vectors between large numbers of wild vertebrate host species, Lyme borreliosis is caused by bacteria from the Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato species group. Ecological studies can inform how environmental factors such as host abundance and community composition, habitat and landscape heterogeneity contribute to spatial and temporal variation in risk from B. burgdorferi s.l. In this thesis a range of approaches were used to investigate the effects of vertebrate host communities and individual host species as drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. dynamics and its tick vector Ixodes ricinus. Host species differ in reservoir competence for B. burgdorferi s.l. and as hosts for ticks. Deer are incompetent transmission hosts for B. burgdorferi s.l. but are significant hosts of all life-stages of I. ricinus. Rodents and birds are important transmission hosts of B. burgdorferi s.l. and common hosts of immature life-stages of I. ricinus. In this thesis, surveys of woodland sites revealed variable effects of deer density on B. burgdorferi prevalence, from no effect (Chapter 2) to a possible ‘dilution’ effect resulting in lower prevalence at higher deer densities (Chapter 3). An invasive species in Scotland, the grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis), was found to host diverse genotypes of B. burgdorferi s.l. and may act as a spill-over host for strains maintained by native host species (Chapter 4). Habitat fragmentation may alter the dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. via effects on the host community and host movements. In this thesis, there was lack of persistence of the rodent associated genospecies of B. burgdorferi s.l. within a naturally fragmented landscape (Chapter 3). Rodent host biology, particularly population cycles and dispersal ability are likely to affect pathogen persistence and recolonization in fragmented habitats. Heterogeneity in disease dynamics can occur spatially and temporally due to differences in the host community, habitat and climatic factors. Higher numbers of I. ricinus nymphs, and a higher probability of detecting a nymph infected with B. burgdorferi s.l., were found in areas with warmer climates estimated by growing degree days (Chapter 2). The ground vegetation type associated with the highest number of I. ricinus nymphs varied between studies in this thesis (Chapter 2 & 3) and does not appear to be a reliable predictor across large areas. B. burgdorferi s.l. prevalence and genospecies composition was highly variable for the same sites sampled in subsequent years (Chapter 2). This suggests that dynamic variables such as reservoir host densities and deer should be measured as well as more static habitat and climatic factors to understand the drivers of B. burgdorferi s.l. infection in ticks. Heterogeneity in parasite loads amongst hosts is a common finding which has implications for disease ecology and management. Using a 17-year data set for tick infestations in a wild bird community in Scotland, different effects of age and sex on tick burdens were found among four species of passerine bird (Chapter 5). There were also different rates of decline in tick burdens among bird species in response to a long term decrease in questing tick pressure over the study. Species specific patterns may be driven by differences in behaviour and immunity and highlight the importance of comparative approaches. Combining whole genome sequencing (WGS) and population genetics approaches offers a novel approach to identify ecological drivers of pathogen populations. An initial analysis of WGS from B. burgdorferi s.s. isolates sampled 16 years apart suggests that there is a signal of measurable evolution (Chapter 6). This suggests demographic analyses may be applied to understand ecological and evolutionary processes of these bacteria. This work shows how host communities, habitat and climatic factors can affect the local transmission dynamics of B. burgdorferi s.l. and the potential risk of infection to humans. Spatial and temporal heterogeneity in pathogen dynamics poses challenges for the prediction of risk. New tools such as WGS of the pathogen (Chapter 6) and blood meal analysis techniques will add power to future studies on the ecology and evolution of B. burgdorferi s.l.

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Trypanosomiasis has been identified as a neglected tropical disease in both humans and animals in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Whilst assessments of the biology of trypanosomes, vectors, vertebrate hosts and the environment have provided useful information about life cycles, transmission, and pathogenesis of the parasites that could be used for treatment and control, less information is available about the effects of interactions among multiple intrinsic factors on trypanosome presence in tsetse flies from different sites. It is known that multiple species of tsetse flies can transmit trypanosomes but differences in their vector competence has normally been studied in relation to individual factors in isolation, such as: intrinsic factors of the flies (e.g. age, sex); habitat characteristics; presence of endosymbionts (e.g. Wigglesworthia glossinidia, Sodalis glossinidius); feeding pattern; host communities that the flies feed on; and which species of trypanosomes are transmitted. The purpose of this study was to take a more integrated approach to investigate trypanosome prevalence in tsetse flies. In chapter 2, techniques were optimised for using the Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) to identify species of trypanosomes (Trypanosoma vivax, T. congolense, T. brucei, T. simiae, and T. godfreyi) present in four species of tsetse flies (Glossina austeni, G. brevipalpis, G. longipennis and G. pallidipes) from two regions of eastern Kenya (the Shimba Hills and Nguruman). Based on universal primers targeting the internal transcribed spacer 1 region (ITS-1), T. vivax was the predominant pathogenic species detected in flies, both singly and in combination with other species of trypanosomes. Using Generalised Linear Models (GLMs) and likelihood ratio tests to choose the best-fitting models, presence of T. vivax was significantly associated with an interaction between subpopulation (a combination between collection sites and species of Glossina) and sex of the flies (X2 = 7.52, df = 21, P-value = 0.0061); prevalence in females overall was higher than in males but this was not consistent across subpopulations. Similarly, T. congolense was significantly associated only with subpopulation (X2 = 18.77, df = 1, P-value = 0.0046); prevalence was higher overall in the Shimba Hills than in Nguruman but this pattern varied by species of tsetse fly. When associations were analysed in individual species of tsetse flies, there were no consistent associations between trypanosome prevalence and any single factor (site, sex, age) and different combinations of interactions were found to be significant for each. The results thus demonstrated complex interactions between vectors and trypanosome prevalence related to both the distribution and intrinsic factors of tsetse flies. The potential influence of the presence of S. glossinidius on trypanosome presence in tsetse flies was studied in chapter 3. A high number of Sodalis positive flies was found in the Shimba Hills, while there were only two positive flies from Nguruman. Presence or absence of Sodalis was significantly associated with subpopulation while trypanosome presence showed a significant association with age (X2 = 4.65, df = 14, P-value = 0.0310) and an interaction between subpopulation and sex (X2 = 18.94, df = 10, P-value = 0.0043). However, the specific associations that were significant varied across species of trypanosomes, with T. congolense and T. brucei but not T. vivax showing significant interactions involving Sodalis. Although it has previously been concluded that presence of Sodalis increases susceptibility to trypanosomes, the results presented here suggest a more complicated relationship, which may be biased by differences in the distribution and intrinsic factors of tsetse flies, as well as which trypanosome species are considered. In chapter 4 trypanosome status was studied in relation to blood meal sources, feeding status and feeding patterns of G. pallidipes (which was the predominant fly species collected for this study) as determined by sequencing the mitochondrial cytochrome B gene using DNA extracted from abdomen samples. African buffalo and African elephants were the main sources of blood meals but antelopes, warthogs, humans, giraffes and hyenas were also identified. Feeding on multiple hosts was common in flies sampled from the Shimba Hills but most flies from Nguruman had fed on single host species. Based on Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA), host-feeding patterns showed a correlation with site of sample collection and Sodalis status, while trypanosome status was correlated with sex and age of the flies, suggesting that recent host-feeding patterns from blood meal analysis cannot predict trypanosome status. In conclusion, the complexity of interactions found suggests that strategies of tsetse fly control should be specific to particular epidemic areas. Future studies should include laboratory experiments that use local colonies of tsetse flies, local strains of trypanosomes and local S. glossinidius under controlled environmental conditions to tease out the factors that affect vector competence and the relative influence of external environmental factors on the dynamics of these interactions.

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Leishmaniasis are endemic diseases wild spread in the New and Old World, caused by the flagelated protozoan Leishmania. In the New World, the distribution of different forms of leishmaniasis is mostly in tropical regions. In the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil, 85% of the captured sand flies fauna is Lutzomyia longipalpis. The distribution of the sand fly vector in the state overlaps with the disease distribution, where the presence of sand flies is associated with presence of animals shelters. The aim of this study was to analyse the blood meal preference of sand flies vector from the genus Lutzomyia spp. in laboratory conditions, to verify the vector life cicle at different temperatures sets and to identify the main blood meal source in endemic areas for visceral leishmaniasis (VL) at peri-urban regions of Natal. Sand flies samples were collected from the municipalities of São Gonçalo do Amarante and Nísia Floresta where female sand flies were grouped for the colony maintenance in the laboratory and for the analysis of the preferred source of sand fly blood meal in natural environment. The prevalence of blood meal preference and oviposition for the females sand flies was 97% for Cavia porcellus with oviposition of 19 eggs/female; 97% for Eqqus caballus with 19 eggs/female; 98% for human blood with 14 eggs/female; 71.3% for Didelphis albiventris with 8.4 eggs/female; 73% for Gallus gallus with 14 eggs/female; 86% for Canis familiaris with 10.3 eggs/female; 81.4% for Galea spixii with 26 eggs/female; 36% for Callithrix jachus with 15 eggs/female; 42.8% for Monodelphis domestica with 0% of oviposition. Female sand flies did not take a blood meal from Felis catus. Sand flies life cycle ranged from 32-40 days, with 21-50 oviposition rates approximately. This study also showed that at 32°C the life cycle had 31 days, at 28° C it had 50 days and at 22°C it increased to 79 days. Adjusting the temperature to 35°C the eggs did not hatch, thus blocking the life cycle. A total of 1540 sand flies were captured, among them, 1.310 were male and 230 were female. Whereas 86% of the sand flies captured were Lu. longipalpis as compared to 10.5% for Lu. evandroi and, 3.2% for L. lenti and 0.3% for Lu whitmani. The ratio between female and male sandfly was approximately 6 males to 1 female. In Nísia Floresta, 50.7% of the collected females took their blood meal from armadillo, 12.8% from human. Among the female sand flies captured in São Gonçalo do Amarante, 80 of them were tested for the Leishmania KDNA infectivity where 5% of them were infected with Leishmania chagasi. Female Lutzomyia spp. showed to have an opportunistic blood meal characteristic. The behavioral parameters seem to have a higher influence in the oviposition when compared to the level of total proteins detected in the host s bloodstream. A higher Lu. longipalpis life cycle viability was observed at 28°C. The increase of temperature dropped the life cycle time, which means that the life cycle is modified by temperature range, source of blood meal and humidity. Lu longipalpis was the most specie found in the inner and peridomiciliar environment. In Nísia Floresta, armadillos were the main source of blood meal for Lutzomyia spp. At São Gonçalo do Amarante, humans were the main source of blood meal due to CDC nets placed inside their houses

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Context. With about 2000 extrasolar planets confirmed, the results show that planetary systems have a whole range of unexpected properties. This wide diversity provides fundamental clues to the processes of planet formation and evolution. Aims: We present a full investigation of the HD 219828 system, a bright metal-rich star for which a hot Neptune has previously been detected. Methods: We used a set of HARPS, SOPHIE, and ELODIE radial velocities to search for the existence of orbiting companions to HD 219828. The spectra were used to characterise the star and its chemical abundances, as well as to check for spurious, activity induced signals. A dynamical analysis is also performed to study the stability of the system and to constrain the orbital parameters and planet masses. Results: We announce the discovery of a long period (P = 13.1 yr) massive (m sini = 15.1 MJup) companion (HD 219828 c) in a very eccentric orbit (e = 0.81). The same data confirms the existence of a hot Neptune, HD 219828 b, with a minimum mass of 21 M⊕ and a period of 3.83 days. The dynamical analysis shows that the system is stable, and that the equilibrium eccentricity of planet b is close to zero. Conclusions: The HD 219828 system is extreme and unique in several aspects. First, ammong all known exoplanet systems it presents an unusually high mass ratio. We also show that systems like HD 219828, with a hot Neptune and a long-period massive companion are more frequent than similar systems with a hot Jupiter instead. This suggests that the formation of hot Neptunes follows a different path than the formation of their hot jovian counterparts. The high mass, long period, and eccentricity of HD 219828 c also make it a good target for Gaia astrometry as well as a potential target for atmospheric characterisation, using direct imaging or high-resolution spectroscopy. Astrometric observations will allow us to derive its real mass and orbital configuration. If a transit of HD 219828 b is detected, we will be able to fully characterise the system, including the relative orbital inclinations. With a clearly known mass, HD 219828 c may become a benchmark object for the range in between giant planets and brown dwarfs.

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Background - Several studies have shown that celiac disease, an autoimmune disorder that occurs in genetically susceptible individuals, is highly prevalent among relatives of celiac patients. Aim - To determine the prevalence of celiac disease in a group of first degree relatives of Brazilian celiac patients. Methods - First degree relatives of celiac patients attending the Brasilia University Hospital Pediatric Gastroenterology Outpatient Clinic or the Celiac Disease Investigation Center, Brasília, DF, Brazil, between March 2001 and November 2004 were invited to undergo serological screening for celiac disease applying the IgA anti-endomysium antibody test (IgA-EMA). All positive IgA-EMA sera underwent a second screening using the IgA anti-tissue transglutaminase antibodies test. Duodenal or small intestinal biopsies were performed in all subjects positive to serological testing. Biopsy samples were classified as type (O) normal, (I) infiltrative, (II) infiltrative hyperplastic, (III) flat destructive, and (IV) atrophic hypoplastic. The final diagnosis was ascertained in subjects showing positive serological tests and a grade I to III small intestinal lesion. Results - Nine new cases of celiac disease were found among the 188 first degree relatives tested (4.8%). Conclusion - The present study confirms the high prevalence of celiac disease among first degree celiac patients’ relatives and reinforces the need of extensive diagnostic screening in this specific group.

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Background: Diabetes is associated with increased cardiovascular disease, mortality and morbidity. Objectives: The present study aimed at assessing fasting blood sugar (FBS) in elementary school students in Birjand, 2012. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional and descriptive study was done on 1530 elementary school students who had been selected through multiple cluster sampling. FBS of these students was tested applying the enzymatic process. The obtained data was analyzed by means of SPSS software (v15) and statistical tests t and X2. Results: In this study, 833 girls and 697 boys were evaluated. Mean FBS of the whole study population was 86.9 ± 8.8 mg/dL; FBS was higher in boys compared to girls. FBS of 1453 (95%) children was < 100 mg/dL, the mean being 85.8 ± 6.8 mg/dL. FBS of 698 (45.6%) students of the above population was 86-99 mg/dl. It was 100-125 mg/dL in 72 (4.7%) individuals. Five (0.3%) students had FBS >126 mg/dL. Mean FBS increased in proportion to age, which was statistically significant. Conclusions: Although the prevalence of diabetes is not considerable; however, based on the relatively high portion of those children with high degree of blood glucose in the range in which the risk of diabetes and prediabetes in the following years rises dramatically, the need for further care of health authorities, an extensive screening activity, and undertaking intervening measures to prevent the epidemic of diabetes and consequently cardiovascular disease is emphasized.

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Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências Veterinárias na especialidade de Sanidade Animal

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Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a morbillivirus related to measles virus that infects dogs and other carnivores. CDV has a significant global impact on animal health; however, there is no current antiviral treatment for CDV infection. In recent years, it has been demonstrated that sulfated polysaccharides exhibit antiviral properties both in vivo and in vitro, despite their low cytotoxicity to host cells. Fucoidan is a sulfated polysaccharide found in the cell wall matrix of brown algae. In this study, we evaluated in vitro anti-CDV activity of fucoidan, which was derived from Cladosiphon okamuranus. Fucoidan actively inhibited CDV replication in Vero cells at a 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) of 0.1 lg/ml. The derived selectivity index (SI50) was[20,000. This polysaccharide likely inhibits viral infection by interference in the early steps and by inhibiting CDV-mediated cell fusion. Fucoidan may be useful in development of pharmacological strategies to treat and control CDV infection.

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BACKGROUND: Many publications report the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population. Comparisons across studies are hampered as CKD prevalence estimations are influenced by study population characteristics and laboratory methods. METHODS: For this systematic review, two researchers independently searched PubMed, MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify all original research articles that were published between 1 January 2003 and 1 November 2014 reporting the prevalence of CKD in the European adult general population. Data on study methodology and reporting of CKD prevalence results were independently extracted by two researchers. RESULTS: We identified 82 eligible publications and included 48 publications of individual studies for the data extraction. There was considerable variation in population sample selection. The majority of studies did not report the sampling frame used, and the response ranged from 10 to 87%. With regard to the assessment of kidney function, 67% used a Jaffe assay, whereas 13% used the enzymatic assay for creatinine determination. Isotope dilution mass spectrometry calibration was used in 29%. The CKD-EPI (52%) and MDRD (75%) equations were most often used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CKD was defined as estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in 92% of studies. Urinary markers of CKD were assessed in 60% of the studies. CKD prevalence was reported by sex and age strata in 54 and 50% of the studies, respectively. In publications with a primary objective of reporting CKD prevalence, 39% reported a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSIONS: The findings from this systematic review showed considerable variation in methods for sampling the general population and assessment of kidney function across studies reporting CKD prevalence. These results are utilized to provide recommendations to help optimize both the design and the reporting of future CKD prevalence studies, which will enhance comparability of study results.

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Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a disease of cloven hooved animals caused by FMD virus (FMDV), is one of the most economically devastating diseases of livestock worldwide. The global burden of disease is borne largely by livestock-keepers in areas of Africa and Asia where the disease is endemic and where many people rely on livestock for their livelihoods and food-security. Yet, there are many gaps in our knowledge of the drivers of FMDV circulation in these settings. In East Africa, FMD epidemiology is complicated by the circulation of multiple FMDV serotypes (distinct antigenic variants) and by the presence of large populations of susceptible wildlife and domestic livestock. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is the only wildlife species with consistent evidence of high levels of FMDV infection, and East Africa contains the largest population of this species globally. To inform FMD control in this region, key questions relate to heterogeneities in FMD prevalence and impacts in different livestock management systems and to the role of wildlife as a potential source of FMDV for livestock. To develop FMD control strategies and make best use of vaccine control options, serotype-specific patterns of circulation need to be characterised. In this study, the impacts and epidemiology of FMD were investigated across a range of traditional livestock-keeping systems in northern Tanzania, including pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and rural smallholder systems. Data were generated through field studies and laboratory analyses between 2010 and 2015. The study involved analysis of existing household survey data and generated serological data from cross-sectional livestock and buffalo samples and longitudinal cattle samples. Serological analyses included non-structural protein ELISAs, serotype-specific solid-phase competitive ELISAs, with optimisation to detect East African FMDV variants, and virus neutralisation testing. Risk factors for FMDV infection and outbreaks were investigated through analysis of cross-sectional serological data in conjunction with a case-control outbreak analysis. A novel Bayesian modeling approach was developed to infer serotype-specific infection history from serological data, and combined with virus isolation data from FMD outbreaks to characterise temporal and spatial patterns of serotype-specific infection. A high seroprevalence of FMD was detected in both northern Tanzanian livestock (69%, [66.5 - 71.4%] in cattle and 48.5%, [45.7-51.3%] in small ruminants) and in buffalo (80.9%, [74.7-86.1%]). Four different serotypes of FMDV (A, O, SAT1 and SAT2) were isolated from livestock. Up to three outbreaks per year were reported by households and active surveillance highlighted up to four serial outbreaks in the same herds within three years. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livestock keepers reported more frequent FMD outbreaks compared to smallholders. Households in all three management systems reported that FMD outbreaks caused significant impacts on milk production and sales, and on animals’ draught power, hence on crop production, with implications for food security and livelihoods. Risk factor analyses showed that older livestock were more likely to be seropositive for FMD (Odds Ratio [OR] 1.4 [1.4-1.5] per extra year) and that cattle (OR 3.3 [2.7-4.0]) were more likely than sheep and goats to be seropositive. Livestock managed by agro-pastoralists (OR 8.1 [2.8-23.6]) or pastoralists (OR 7.1 [2.9-17.6]) were more likely to be seropositive compared to those managed by smallholders. Larger herds (OR: 1.02 [1.01-1.03] per extra bovine) and those that recently acquired new livestock (OR: 5.57 [1.01 – 30.91]) had increased odds of suffering an FMD outbreak. Measures of potential contact with buffalo or with other FMD susceptible wildlife did not increase the likelihood of FMD in livestock in either the cross-sectional serological analysis or case-control outbreak analysis. The Bayesian model was validated to correctly infer from ELISA data the most recent serotype to infect cattle. Consistent with the lack of risk factors related to wildlife contact, temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to specific FMDV serotypes were not tightly linked in cattle and buffalo. In cattle, four serial waves of different FMDV serotypes that swept through southern Kenyan and northern Tanzanian livestock populations over a four-year period dominated infection patterns. In contrast, only two serotypes (SAT1 and SAT2) dominated in buffalo populations. Key conclusions are that FMD has a substantial impact in traditional livestock systems in East Africa. Wildlife does not currently appear to act as an important source of FMDV for East African livestock, and control efforts in the region should initially focus on livestock management and vaccination strategies. A novel modeling approach greatly facilitated the interpretation of serological data and may be a potent epidemiological tool in the African setting. There was a clear temporal pattern of FMDV antigenic dominance across northern Tanzania and southern Kenya. Longer-term research to investigate whether serotype-specific FMDV sweeps are truly predictable, and to shed light on FMD post-infection immunity in animals exposed to serial FMD infections is warranted.