Towards a European tephrochronological framework for Termination 1 and the Early Holocene

The record of deposition of tephras in Europe and the North Atlantic during the period 18.5–8.0 ¹⁴C ka BP (the Last Termination and Early Holocene) is reviewed. Altogether, 34 tephras originating from four main volcanic provinces (Iceland, the Eifel district, the Massif Central and Italy) have been identified so far in geological sequences spanning this time–interval. Most of the records have been based, until very recently, on observations of visible layers of tephras. Here, we report on the potential for extending the areas over which some of the tephras can be traced by the search for layers of micro–tephra, which are not visible to the naked eye, and on the use of geochemical methods to correlate them with known tephra horizons. This approach has greatly extended the area in Northern Europe over which the Vedde Ash can be traced. The same potential exists in southern Europe, which is demonstrated for the first time by the discovery of a distinct layer of micro–tephra of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff in a site in the Northern Apennines in Italy, far to the north of the occurrences of visible records of this tephra. The paper closes by considering the potential for developing a robust European tephrostratigraphy to underpin the chronology of records of the Last Termination and Early Holocene, thereby promoting a better understanding of the nature, timing and environmental effects of the abrupt climatic changes that characterized this period.

Configurational preferences of two 1,2-diamine adducts of bis(1-(2-thienyl)-4,4,4-trifluoro-1,3-butanedionato)cobalt(II)

The preparation, the IR and ligand field spectra and the structures of the mixed-ligand addition compounds [(N,N-dimethyl-1,2-diaminoethane)bis(1-(2-thienyl)-4,4,4-trifluoro-1,3-butanedionato)cobalt(II)], [Co(thtf)2me2en], and [(N,N,N′,N′-tetramethyl-1,2-diaminoethane)bis(1-(2-thienyl)-4,4,4-trifluoro-1,3-butanedionato)cobalt(II)], [Co(thtf)2me4en], are reported. The structures were determined by single crystal X-ray diffraction analysis (monoclinic, space group P21/c, Z=4 with a=10.708(6), b=19.531(6), c=13.352(6) Å, β=111.64(10)°, R1=0.0642 and wR2=0.1719 for [Co(thtf)2(me2en)] and a=12.033(6), b=15.565(6), c=15.339(6) Å, β=92.57(6)°, R1=0.0612 and wR2=0.1504 for [Co(thtf)2me4en]). The structures are distorted octahedral and the shortest cobalt–cobalt separation distances are 5.388(2) Å in [Co(thtf)2me2en] and 8.675(3) Å in [Co(thtf)2me4en]. In both compounds the diamine molecules attain the gauche conformation. The U(Z,Z) conformation of the β-dione leads to a semi-chair conformation of the β-dionato chelate rings. The relative orientation of the groups attached to the β-dionato moiety depends on the extent of stereoelectronic effects the N-substitution of the diamine entails. In [Co(thtf)2me2en] the intraligand distance separating the trifluoromethyl carbon atoms is 5.281(18) Å while in [Co(thtf)2me2en] it increases to 8.338(9) Å. The cobalt–cobalt separation distance, the orientation of the chelate rings and the extent of N-substitution seem to affect hydrogen bonding. While in [Co(thtf)2me2en] inter- and intraligand hydrogen bonding is implicated, it is totally absent in [Co(thtf)2me4en].

Structure and spectra of dichloro(hydroxy-methoxy-di(2-pyridyl)methane)copper(II)

The non-electrolyte dichloro(hydroxy-methoxy-di(2-pyridylmethane)copper(II), resulting from the reaction of di(2-pyridyl)ketone and copper(II) chloride in methanol solution, was isolated and characterized and its structure was determined by X-ray diffraction. The pyridyl nitrogens and the chloride anions virtually from a basal plane in which lies the copper atom, while the oxygen of the methoxy group is in an apical position at a distance of 2.497 (3)Å. The nitrogenous base adopts the boat conformation with the pyridyl rings forming a dihedral angle of 108.72 (14)°. The nearest interatomic copper distance of 3.940(3)Å precludes copper-copper interactions, while the proximity of copper to the out-of-plane chlorine atoms [3.109(3)Å] suggests weakly bound chloro-bridged dimers. Spectral changes indicate that protic molecules displace the methoxy group and water affords the corresponding 1,1-diol.

Solar cycle 24: implications for energetic particles and long-term space climate change

The recent solar minimum was the longest and deepest of the space age, with the lowest average sunspot numbers for nearly a century. The Sun appears to be exiting a grand solar maximum (GSM) of activity which has persisted throughout the space age, and is headed into a significantly quieter period. Indeed, initial observations of solar cycle 24 (SC24) continue to show a relatively low heliospheric magnetic field strength and sunspot number (R), despite the average latitude of sunspots and the inclination of the heliospheric current sheet showing the rise to solar maximum is well underway. We extrapolate the available SC24 observations forward in time by assuming R will continue to follow a similar form to previous cycles, despite the end of the GSM, and predict a very weak cycle 24, with R peaking at ∼65–75 around the middle/end of 2012. Similarly, we estimate the heliospheric magnetic field strength will peak around 6nT. We estimate that average galactic cosmic ray fluxes above 1GV rigidity will be ∼10% higher in SC24 than SC23 and that the probability of a large SEP event during this cycle is 0.8, compared to 0.5 for SC23. Comparison of the SC24 R estimates with previous ends of GSMs inferred from 9300 years of cosmogenic isotope data places the current evolution of the Sun and heliosphere in the lowest 5% of cases, suggesting Maunder Minimum conditions are likely within the next 40 years.

The impact of news on measures of undiversifiable risk: evidence from the UK stock market

Using UK equity index data, this paper considers the impact of news on time varying measures of beta, the usual measure of undiversifiable risk. The empirical model implies that beta depends on news about the market and news about the sector. The asymmetric response of beta to news about the market is consistent across all sectors considered. Recent research is divided as to whether abnormalities in equity returns arise from changes in expected returns in an efficient market or over-reactions to new information. The evidence suggests that such abnormalities may be due to changes in expected returns caused by time-variation and asymmetry in beta.

The effect of asymmetries on optimal hedge ratios

There is widespread evidence that the volatility of stock returns displays an asymmetric response to good and bad news. This article considers the impact of asymmetry on time-varying hedges for financial futures. An asymmetric model that allows forecasts of cash and futures return volatility to respond differently to positive and negative return innovations gives superior in-sample hedging performance. However, the simpler symmetric model is not inferior in a hold-out sample. A method for evaluating the models in a modern risk-management framework is presented, highlighting the importance of allowing optimal hedge ratios to be both time-varying and asymmetric.