Inférence de source de traces d'essence retrouvées dans des débris d'incendie: Evaluation de la contribution de la chromatographie en phase gazeuse couplée à la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique

Lorsque de l'essence est employée pour allumer et/ou propager un incendie, l'inférence de la source de l'essence peut permettre d'établir un lien entre le sinistre et une source potentielle. Cette inférence de la source constitue une alternative intéressante pour fournir des éléments de preuve dans ce type d'événements où les preuves matérielles laissées par l'auteur sont rares. Le but principal de cette recherche était le développement d'une méthode d'analyse de spécimens d'essence par GC-IRMS, méthode pas routinière et peu étudiée en science forensique, puis l'évaluation de son potentiel à inférer la source de traces d'essence en comparaison aux performances de la GC-MS. Un appareillage permettant d'analyser simultanément les échantillons par MS et par IRMS a été utilisé dans cette recherche. Une méthode d'analyse a été développée, optimisée et validée pour cet appareillage. Par la suite, des prélèvements d'essence provenant d'un échantillonnage conséquent et représentatif du marché de la région lausannoise ont été analysés. Finalement, les données obtenues ont été traitées et interprétées à l'aide de méthodes chimiométriques. Les analyses effectuées ont permis de montrer que la méthodologie mise en place, aussi bien pour la composante MS que pour l'IRMS, permet de différencier des échantillons d'essence non altérée provenant de différentes stations-service. Il a également pu être démontré qu'à chaque nouveau remplissage des cuves d'une station-service, la composition de l'essence distribuée par cette station est quasi unique. La GC-MS permet une meilleure différenciation d'échantillons prélevés dans différentes stations, alors que la GC-IRMS est plus performante lorsqu'il s'agit de comparer des échantillons collectés après chacun des remplissages d'une cuve. Ainsi, ces résultats indiquent que les deux composantes de la méthode peuvent être complémentaires pour l'analyse d'échantillons d'essence non altérée. Les résultats obtenus ont également permis de montrer que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence ne compromet pas la possibilité de grouper des échantillons de même source par GC-MS. Il est toutefois nécessaire d'effectuer une sélection des variables afin d'éliminer celles qui sont influencées par le phénomène d'évaporation. Par contre, les analyses effectuées ont montré que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence a une forte influence sur la composition isotopique des échantillons. Cette influence est telle qu'il n'est pas possible, même en effectuant une sélection des variables, de grouper correctement des échantillons évaporés par GC-IRMS. Par conséquent, seule la composante MS de la méthodologie mise en place permet d'inférer la source d'échantillons d'essence évaporée. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ When gasoline is used to start and / or propagate an arson, source inference of gasoline can allow to establish a link between the fire and a potential source. This source inference is an interesting alternative to provide evidence in this type of events where physical evidence left by the author are rare. The main purpose of this research was to develop a GC-IRMS method for the analysis of gasoline samples, a non-routine method and little investigated in forensic science, and to evaluate its potential to infer the source of gasoline traces compared to the GC-MS performances. An instrument allowing to analyze simultaneously samples by MS and IRMS was used in this research. An analytical method was developed, optimized and validated for this instrument. Thereafter, gasoline samples from a large sampling and representative of the Lausanne area market were analyzed. Finally, the obtained data were processed and interpreted using chemometric methods. The analyses have shown that the methodology, both for MS and for IRMS, allow to differentiate unweathered gasoline samples from different service stations. It has also been demonstrated that each new filling of the tanks of a station generates an almost unique composition of gasoline. GC-MS achieves a better differentiation of samples coming from different stations, while GC-IRMS is more efficient to distinguish samples collected after each filling of a tank. Thus, these results indicate that the two components of the method can be complementary to the analysis of unweathered gasoline samples. The results have also shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples does not compromise the possibility to group samples coming from the same source by GC-MS. It is however necessary to make a selection of variables in order to eliminate those which are influenced by the evaporation. On the other hand, the carried out analyses have shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples has such a strong influence on the isotopic composition of the samples that it is not possible, even by performing a selection of variables, to properly group evaporated samples by GC-IRMS. Therefore, only the MS allows to infer the source of evaporated gasoline samples.

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Adessiivin funktion päättely paikallisessa kontekstissa

Summary: Determining the function of the Finnish adessive case through inference in a local context

Rouhintasorvauksen säätöjärjestelmä

Tässä työssä kuvataan menetelmä, jonka avulla on mahdollista sorvausprosessista mitattujen signaalien perusteella muokata lastuamisprosessin parametreja siten, että prosessissa mahdollisesti esiintyvät ongelmatilanteet korjataan. Työ on tehty osana Feedchip-tutkimushanketta ja tukeutuu tutkimushankkeessa aiemmin tehtyyn työhön vaadittavien korjaustoimenpiteiden, signaaleja mittaavien antureiden instrumentoinnin sekä alustavan ongelmatilanteiden ominaispiirteiden signaaleista tunnistuksen osalta. Tämä työ keskittyy esittelemään toiminnot, joiden avulla aiemmat tulokset voidaan koota yhteen kokonaisuuteen. Järjestelmän toiminta edellyttää sen osien toiminnan korkean tason koordinointia. Lisäksi määritellään päättelyjärjestelmä, joka kykenee mitatuista arvoista tunnistettujen ongelmatilanteiden esiintymisasteiden perusteella määrittämään tarvittavat toimenpiteet ongelmatilanteiden poistamiseksi. Kandidaatintyön rinnalla toteutetaan ohjelmisto Lappeenrannan teknillisen yliopiston konepajatekniikan laboratorion sorvausjärjestelmän yhteyteen rakennetun prototyyppilaitteiston ohjaamiseksi.

Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Programa MicroEconometria. Paquet estadístic i economètric

MicroEconometria és un paquet estadístic i economètric que contempla l’estimació de models uniequacionals: 1- Regressió simple i múltiple: anàlisi de residus, influència i atipicitat, diagnòstics de multicol·linealitat, estimació robusta, predicció, diagnòstics d’estabilitat, bootstrap. 2- Regressió en panell: efectes fixes, efectes aleatoris i efectes combinats. 3- Regressió lògit i probit. 4- Regressió censurada: tobit i model de selecció de Heckman. 5- Regressió multinomial. 6- Regressió poisson: model ‘count data’. 7- Índexs amb variables renda i riquesa i impostos transferències. Genera un informe per a cada una de les possibilitats contemplades que conté la presentació dels resultats de les estimacions, incloent les sortides gràfiques pertinents. L’input del programa és qualsevol base de dades, en la que es pugui identificar la variable endògena i les variables exògenes del model utilitzat, continguda en un llibre d’EXCEL de Microsoft.

Spiders on a Hot Volcanic Roof: Colonisation Pathways and Phylogeography of the Canary Islands Endemic Trap-Door Spider Titanidiops canariensis (Araneae, Idiopidae)

Studies conducted on volcanic islands have greatly contributed to our current understanding of how organisms diversify. The Canary Islands archipelago, located northwest of the coast of northern Africa, harbours a large number of endemic taxa. Because of their low vagility, mygalomorph spiders are usually absent from oceanic islands. The spider Titanidiops canariensis, which inhabits the easternmost islands of the archipelago, constitutes an exception to this rule. Here, we use a multi-locus approach that combines three mitochondrial and four nuclear genes to investigate the origins and phylogeography of this remarkable trap-door spider. We provide a timeframe for the colonisation of the Canary Islands using two alternative approaches: concatenation and species tree inference in a Bayesian relaxed clock framework. Additionally, we investigate the existence of cryptic species on the islands by means of a Bayesian multi-locus species delimitation method. Our results indicate that T. canariensis colonised the Canary Islands once, most likely during the Miocene, although discrepancies between the timeframes from different approaches make the exact timing uncertain. A complex evolutionary history for the species in the archipelago is revealed, which involves two independent colonisations of Fuerteventura from the ancestral range of T. canariensis in northern Lanzarote and a possible back colonisation of southern Lanzarote. The data further corroborate a previously proposed volcanic refugium, highlighting the impact of the dynamic volcanic history of the island on the phylogeographic patterns of the endemic taxa. T. canariensis includes at least two different species, one inhabiting the Jandia peninsula and central Fuerteventura and one spanning from central Fuerteventura to Lanzarote. Our data suggest that the extant northern African Titanidiops lineages may have expanded to the region after the islands were colonised and, hence, are not the source of colonisation. In addition, T. maroccanus may harbour several cryptic species.

Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Panel Data Stochastic Convergence Analysis of the Mexican Regions

The stochastic convergence amongst Mexican Federal entities is analyzed in panel data framework. The joint consideration of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks is required to ensure that the statistical inference is based on statistics with good statistical properties. Once these features are accounted for, evidence in favour of stochastic convergence is found. Since stochastic convergence is a necessary, yet insufficient condition for convergence as predicted by economic growth models, the paper also investigates whether-convergence process has taken place. We found that the Mexican states have followed either heterogeneous convergence patterns or divergence process throughout the analyzed period.

Sexual foraging segregation in South American sea lions increases during the pre-breeding period in the La Plata River plume

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes in skin and bone of South American sea lions from Brazil and Uruguay were analysed to test the hypothesis that trophic overlap between the sexes is lower during the pre-breeding season than throughout the rest of the year. The isotopic values of skin and bone were used to infer the trophic relationships between the sexes during the pre-breeding period and year round, respectively. Prey species were also analysed to establish a baseline necessary for interpreting the stable isotope ratios of skin and bone. Standard ellipse areas, estimated using Bayesian inference in the SIBER routine of the SIAR package in R, suggested that males and females used a wide diversity of foraging strategies throughout the year and that no differences existed between the sexes. However, the diversity of foraging strategies was largely reduced during the pre-breeding period, with all the individuals of each sex adopting similar strategies, but with the two sexes differing considerably in stable isotope values and the ellipse areas of males and females not overlapping at all. Nevertheless, the results revealed a general increase in the consumption of pelagic prey by both sexes during the pre-breeding period. The progressive crowding of individuals in the areas surrounding the breeding rookeries during the pre-breeding period could lead to an increase in the local population density, which could explain the above reported changes.

Desenvolupament d'una aplicació per a la creació de pressupostos on-line

En aquests moments, el mercat no es troba en una bona situació, per aquest motiu les empreses han de buscar noves maneres de créixer, expandir-se i noves formes d’interactuar amb els clients. La idea original d’aquest projecte sorgeix de la necessitat de disposar d’una manera diferent de promocionar-se i oferir nous serveis a través d’internet mitjançant una pàgina web. Degut a la situació actual, el preu és un aspecte molt important i influent a l’hora de realitzar una obra. Per aquest motiu es va pensar que seria molt interessant que el client pogués demanar de forma fàcil i ràpida un pressupost, i a l’instant tingués un preu orientatiu del que li pot costar la obra. D’aquesta manera l’interessat s’estalvia i agilitza molts passos previs abans de començar una obra. Després d’analitzar quina era la millor manera de portar a terme el projecte informàtic, s’ha determinat que la pàgina web es desenvoluparà utilitzant els llenguatges HTML i PHP combinant-lo amb el framework CodeIgniter. El disseny de la web es realitzarà mitjançant fulles d’estil CSS conjuntament amb el framework BootStrap. Per realitzar l’aplicació web que realitza els pressupostos s’utilitzarà AJAX i jQuery perquè d’aquesta manera el procés sigui dinàmic. L’entorn de desenvolupament escollit és el NetBeans i per provar el projecte s’utilitza el XAMPP. Un usuari només necessitarà un navegador i connexió a internet per fer servir totes les funcions de la web. Podrà realitzar pressupostos, concertar visites, contactar i per suposat veure tota la part informativa de la pàgina

The Importance of Semantics: Visual World Studies on Drawing Inferences and Resolving Anaphors

The present thesis investigated the importance of semantics in generating inferences during discourse processing. Three aspects of semantics, gender stereotypes, implicit causality information and proto-role properties, were used to investigate whether semantics is activated elaboratively during discourse comprehension and what its relative importance is in backward inferencing compared to discourse/structural cues. Visual world eye-tracking studies revealed that semantics plays an important role in both backward and forward inferencing: Gender stereotypes and implicit causality information is activated elaboratively during online discourse comprehension. Moreover, gender stereotypes, implicit causality and proto-role properties of verbs are all used in backward inferencing. Importantly, the studies demonstrated that semantic cues are weighed against discourse/structural cues. When the structural cues consist of a combination of cues that have been independently shown to be important in backward inferencing, semantic effects may be masked, whereas when the structural cues consist of a combination of fewer prominent cues, semantics can have an earlier effect than structural factors in pronoun resolution. In addition, the type of inference matters, too: During anaphoric inferencing semantics has a prominent role, while discourse/structural salience attains more prominence during non-anaphoric inferencing. Finally, semantics exhibits a strong role in inviting new inferences to revise earlier made inferences even in the case the additional inference is not needed to establish coherence in discourse. The findings are generally in line with the Mental Model approaches. Two extended model versions are presented that incorporate the current findings into the earlier literature. These models allow both forward and backward inferencing to occur at any given moment during the course of processing; they also allow semantic and discourse/structural cues to contribute to both of these processes. However, while the Mental Model 1 does not assume interactions between semantic and discourse/structural factors in forward inferencing, the Mental Model 2 does assume such a link.

Ratiomuuttujat ja näennäinen korrelaatio

Eri tieteenalojen tutkijat ovat kiistelleet jo yli vuosisadan ajan ratiomuodossa olevien muuttujien käytön vaikutuksista korrelaatio- ja regressioanalyysien tuloksiin ja niiden oikeaan tulkintaan. Strategiatutkimuksen piirissä aiheeseen ei ole kuitenkaan kiinnitetty suuresti huomiota. Tämä on yllättävää, sillä ratiomuuttujat ovat hyvin yleisesti käytettyjä empiirisen strategiatutkimuksen piirissä. Tässä työssä luodaan katsaus ratiomuuttujien ympärillä käytyyn debattiin. Lisäksi selvitetään artikkelikatsauksen avulla niiden käytön yleisyyttä nykypäivän strategiatutkimuksessa. Työssä tutkitaan Monte Carlo –simulaatioiden avulla ratiomuuttujien ominaisuuksien vaikutuksia korrelaatio- ja regressioanalyysin tuloksiin erityisesti yhteisen nimittäjän tapauksissa.

Sulfetos volatilizáveis por acidificação e metais extraídos simultaneamente na avaliação de sedimentos de água doce

This paper discusses the historical and methodological fundaments of the dynamics and quantification of acid volatile sulfides (AVS) and simultaneously extracted metals (SEM) in aquatic sediments. It also discusses the SEM/AVS relationship, which involves several controversial aspects such as sulfide stability, sulfide-organic matter interaction, and the inability to predict the toxicity of organic compounds in the environment. This relationship is an important tool for the inference of metal bioavailability. The use of ecotoxicological tests with target organisms regulated by international standards is also a relevant aspect.

Diversidade de Phytophthora parasitica isolados de Citrus usando seqüências de nucleotídeos da região ITS-5.8S rDNA

Realizou-se estudo para caracterização e verificação da diversidade genética de Phytophthora parasitica, agente causador da gomose dos citros. Quatorze isolados de Phytophthora parasitica, provenientes do Estado de São Paulo, foram seqüenciados a partir das regiões internas transcritas (ITS1 e ITS2) do gene 5.8S. Obtiveram-se seqüências de 812 pb a 860 pb que foram comparadas com seqüências de outras espécies de Phytophthora spp depositadas no NCBI. Foram feitos estudos filogenéticos, utilizando-se o método "neighbor-joining" com 1000 "bootstrap" e construído o dendrograma mais representativo. Obtiveram-se os resultados de 98,88% a 100% de similaridade genética entre os 14 isolados paulistas, e 99,5% a 98,8% entre estes e a seqüência de P. nicotianae (gi| 8927482) obtida do GenBank NCBI.