Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

TiltZoom : tilt-based zooming control for easy one-handed mobile interactions

In this paper, we present TiltZoom, a collection of tilt-based interaction techniques designed for easy one-handed zooming on mobile devices. TiltZoom represents novel gestural interaction techniques, implemented using rate-of-rotation readings from a gyroscope, a sensor commonly embedded on current generation smart phones. We designed and experimented three variants of TiltZoom - Tilt Level, Tilt and Hold and Flip Gesture. The design decisions for all three variants are discussed in this paper and their performance, as well as subjective user experience are evaluated and compared against conventional touch-based zooming techniques. TiltZoom appears to be a worthy addition to current established collection of gesture-based mobile interaction techniques for zooming controls, especially when user has only one hand available when moving about.

Why do policy decision-makers opt for command and control environmental regulation? An economic analysis with special reference to Sri Lanka

This chapter examines why policy decision-makers opt for command and control environmental regulation despite the availability of a plethora of market-based instruments which are more efficient and cost-effective. Interestingly, Sri Lanka has adopted a wholly command and control system, during both the pre and post liberalisation economic policies. This chapter first examines the merits and demerits of command and control and market-based approaches and then looks at Sri Lanka’s extensive environmental regulatory framework. The chapter then examines the likely reasons as to why the country has gone down the path of inflexible regulatory measures and has become entrenched in them. The various hypotheses are discussed and empirical evidence is provided. The chapter also discusses the consequences of an environmentally slack economy and policy implications stemming from adopting a wholly regulatory approach. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the main results.

Politicians as experts, electoral control, and fiscal restraints

We establish an argument for fiscal restraints which is based on the idea that politicians are experts in the meaning of the credence good literature. A budget maximizing politician is better informed than the electorate about the necessary spending to ensure the states ability to provide services for the economy. Voters, being able to observe the budget but not the necessary level of spending, attenuate the government’s spending level via electoral control. A fiscal restraint limits the maximum spending a government will choose if the level of spending ensuring the politicians reelection is not sufficient to ensure the state’s ability to provide services to the economy. We determine when such a fiscal restraint improves voter welfare and discuss the role of the opposition in situations where very high levels of spending are required.

An intelligent network control system for plug-in electric vehicles and the associate communication mechanism

The development of an intelligent plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) network is an important research topic in the smart grid environment. An intelligent PEV network enables a flexible control of PEV charging and discharging activities and hence PEVs can be utilized as ancillary service providers in the power system concerned. Given this background, an intelligent PEV network architecture is first developed, and followed by detailed designs of its application layers, including the charging and discharging controlling system, mobility and roaming management, as well as communication mechanisms associated. The presented architecture leverages the philosophy in mobile communication network buildup

Budget-aware role based access control

The suitability of Role Based Access Control (RBAC) is being challenged in dynamic environments like healthcare. In an RBAC system, a user's legitimate access may be denied if their need has not been anticipated by the security administrator at the time of policy specification. Alternatively, even when the policy is correctly specified an authorised user may accidentally or intentionally misuse the granted permission. The heart of the challenge is the intrinsic unpredictability of users' operational needs as well as their incentives to misuse permissions. In this paper we propose a novel Budget-aware Role Based Access Control (B-RBAC) model that extends RBAC with the explicit notion of budget and cost, where users are assigned a limited budget through which they pay for the cost of permissions they need. We propose a model where the value of resources are explicitly defined and an RBAC policy is used as a reference point to discriminate the price of access permissions, as opposed to representing hard and fast rules for making access decisions. This approach has several desirable properties. It enables users to acquire unassigned permissions if they deem them necessary. However, users misuse capability is always bounded by their allocated budget and is further adjustable through the discrimination of permission prices. Finally, it provides a uniform mechanism for the detection and prevention of misuses.

Collective dynamics and control of a 3-D small-world network with time delays

The paper presents a detailed analysis on the collective dynamics and delayed state feedback control of a three-dimensional delayed small-world network. The trivial equilibrium of the model is first investigated, showing that the uncontrolled model exhibits complicated unbounded behavior. Then three control strategies, namely a position feedback control, a velocity feedback control, and a hybrid control combined velocity with acceleration feedback, are then introduced to stabilize this unstable system. It is shown in these three control schemes that only the hybrid control can easily stabilize the 3-D network system. And with properly chosen delay and gain in the delayed feedback path, the hybrid controlled model may have stable equilibrium, or periodic solutions resulting from the Hopf bifurcation, or complex stranger attractor from the period-doubling bifurcation. Moreover, the direction of Hopf bifurcation and stability of the bifurcation periodic solutions are analyzed. The results are further extended to any "d" dimensional network. It shows that to stabilize a "d" dimensional delayed small-world network, at least a "d – 1" order completed differential feedback is needed. This work provides a constructive suggestion for the high dimensional delayed systems.

Protein monoubiquitination and polyubiquitination generate structural diversity to control distinct biological processes

Ubiquitination involves the attachment of ubiquitin (Ub) to lysine residues on substrate proteins or itself, which can result in protein monoubiquitination or polyubiquitination. Polyubiquitination through different lysines (seven) or the N-terminus of Ub can generate different protein-Ub structures. These include monoubiquitinated proteins, polyubiqutinated proteins with homotypic chains through a particular lysine on Ub or mixed polyubiquitin chains generated by polymerization through different Ub lysines. The ability of the ubiquitination pathway to generate different protein-Ub structures provides versatility of this pathway to target proteins to different fates. Protein ubiquitination is catalyzed by Ub-conjugating and Ub-ligase enzymes, with different combinations of these enzymes specifying the type of Ub modification on protein substrates. How Ub-conjugating and Ub-ligase enzymes generate this structural diversity is not clearly understood. In the current review, we discuss mechanisms utilized by the Ub-conjugating and Ub-ligase enzymes to generate structural diversity during protein ubiquitination, with a focus on recent mechanistic insights into protein monoubiquitination and polyubiquitination.

The impact of anxiety on processing efficiency : implications for the attentional control theory

The Attentional Control Theory (ACT) proposes that high-anxious individuals maintain performance effectiveness (accuracy) at the expense of processing efficiency (response time), in particular, the two central executive functions of inhibition and shifting. In contrast, research has generally failed to consider the third executive function which relates to the function of updating. In the current study, seventy-five participants completed the Parametric Go/No-Go and n-back tasks, as well as the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory in order to explore the effects of anxiety on attention. Results indicated that anxiety lead to decay in processing efficiency, but not in performance effectiveness, across all three Central Executive functions (inhibition, set-shifting and updating). Interestingly, participants with high levels of trait anxiety also exhibited impaired performance effectiveness on the n-back task designed to measure the updating function. Findings are discussed in relation to developing a new model of ACT that also includes the role of preattentive processes and dual-task coordination when exploring the effects of anxiety on task performance.

Post-discharge surveillance : can patients reliably diagnose surgical wound infections?

Post-discharge surgical wound infection surveillance is an important part of many infection control programs. It is frequently undertaken by patient self-assessment, prompted either by a telephone or postal questionnaire. To assess the reliability of this method, 290 patients were followed for six weeks postoperatively. Their wounds were photographed and also covertly assessed for signs of infection by two experienced infection control nurses (ICNs). Patients also responded to a postal questionnaire seeking evidence of infection at both week four and week six post-surgery. Correlation between the patient's assessment of their wound and the ICNs diagnosis was poor (r=0.37) with a low positive predictive value (28.7%), although negative predictive value was high (98.2%). Assessment of photos for signs of infection by two experienced clinicians also correlated poorly with the ICNs diagnosis of infection (r=0.54). The patient's recall of prescription of an antibiotic by their general practitioner (GP) for wound infection during the postoperative period correlated best with the ICNs diagnosis (r=0.76). This latter measure, particularly when confirmed by the GP in those patients reporting an infection, appears to provide the most valid and resource efficient marker of post-discharge surgical wound infection.

Evolving and expanding : the scope of practice of the infection control practitioner

Infection control practitioners (ICPs) work across the full spectrum of health care settings and carry out a broad range of practice activities. Whilst several studies have reported on the role of the ICP, there has been little investigation of the scope of infection control practice. This knowledge is essential to inform the professional, legal, educational and financial implications of this specialist role. One hundred and thirteen ICPs from a range of health care settings across Queensland were surveyed. Respondents were asked to rate the extent to which they were and should be engaging in the range of practices identified by Gardner, Jones & Olesen (1999). Significant differences were evident between what ICPs said was their actual practice versus what they thought they should be doing. Overall, the respondents consistently reported that they should be engaging in more of the range of infection control activities than they were, particularly with regard to management practices. A number of differences were found according to the context in which the practitioners worked, such as the type and size of facility and their employment status. The results of this study indicate that the scope of infection control practice has clearly moved beyond those practices that are confined by the hospital wall and defined by surveillance activities.

Use of focus group technique to investigate infection control practice

Use of focus groups as a technique of inquiry is gaining attention in the area of health-care research. This paper will report on the technique of focus group interviewing to investigate the role of the infection control practitioner. Infection control is examined as a specialty area of health-care practice that has received little research attention to date. Additionally, it is an area of practice that is expanding in response to social, economic and microbiological forces. The focus group technique in this study helped a group of infection control practitioners from urban, regional and rural areas throughout Queensland identify and categorise their daily work activities. The outcomes of this process were then analysed to identify the growth in breadth and complexity of the role of the infection control practitioner in the contemporary health-care environment. Findings indicate that the role of the infection control practitioner in Australia has undergone changes consistent with and reflecting changing models of health-care delivery.

Credentialing the infection control practitioner

The following proposal is submitted by the AICA's credentialling and certification subcommittee for your consideration. It outlines a process and procedure for interim credentialling of infection control practitioners. In submitting this proposal, the subcommittee acknowledges that, while competency-based education is the preferred process for credentialling, there are clinicians who, in the absence of educational opportunities, have developed a specialist level of competency in infection control practice through self education and experience. Committee members also recognise the need for self-regulation of accrediting processes, to maintain standards in practice and support members in their clinical roles. We ask you to review the following proposal and invite your comments and critique, to be received by the last week in January 1998.

The importance of mosquito behavioural adaptations to malaria control in Africa

Over the past decade the use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), in combination with improved drug therapies, indoor residual spraying (IRS) and better health infrastructure, has helped reduce malaria in many African countries for the first time in a generation. However, insecticide resistance in the vector is an evolving threat to these gains. We review emerging and historical data on behavioural resistance in response to LLINs and IRS. Overall the current literature suggests behavioural and species changes may be emerging, but the data are sparse and, at times unconvincing. However, preliminary modelling has demonstrated that behavioural resistance could have significant impacts on the effectiveness of malaria control. We propose seven recommendations to improve understanding of resistance in malaria vectors. Determining the public health impact of physiological and behavioural insecticide resistance is an urgent priority if we are to maintain the significant gains made in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality.