923 resultados para Bayesean Prior
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Microorganisms play key roles in biogeochemical cycling by facilitating the release of nutrients from organic compounds. In doing so, microbial communities use different organic substrates that yield different amounts of energy for maintenance and growth of the community. Carbon utilization efficiency (CUE) is a measure of the efficiency with which substrate carbon is metabolized versus mineralized by the microbial biomass. In the face of global change, we wanted to know how temperature affected the efficiency by which the soil microbial community utilized an added labile substrate, and to determine the effect of labile soil carbon depletion (through increasing duration of incubation) on the community's ability to respond to an added substrate. Cellobiose was added to soil samples as a model compound at several times over the course of a long-term incubation experiment to measure the amount of carbon assimilated or lost as CO2 respiration. Results indicated that in all cases, the time required for the microbial community to take up the added substrate increased as incubation time prior to substrate addition increased. However, the CUE was not affected by incubation time. Increased temperature generally decreased CUE, thus the microbial community was more efficient at 15 degrees C than at 25 degrees C. These results indicate that at warmer temperatures microbial communities may release more CO2 per unit of assimilated carbon. Current climate-carbon models have a fixed CUE to predict how much CO2 will be released as soil organic matter is decomposed. Based on our findings, this assumption may be incorrect due to variation of CUE with changing temperature. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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With increasing pressure to deliver environmentally friendly and socially responsible highway infrastructure projects, stakeholders are also putting significant focus on the early identification of financial viability and outcomes for these projects. Infrastructure development typically requires major capital input, which may cause serious financial constraints for investors. The push for sustainability has added new dimensions to the evaluation of highway projects, particularly on the cost front. Comprehensive analysis of the cost implications of implementing place sustainable measures in highway infrastructure throughout its lifespan is highly desirable and will become an essential part of the highway development process and a primary concern for decision makers. This paper discusses an ongoing research which seeks to identify cost elements and issues related to sustainable measures for highway infrastructure projects. Through life-cycle costing analysis (LCCA), financial implications of pursuing sustainability, which are highly concerned by the construction stakeholders, have been assessed to aid the decision making when contemplating the design, development and operation of highway infrastructure. An extensive literature review and evaluation of project reports from previous Australian highway projects was first conducted to reveal all potential cost elements. This provided the foundation for a questionnaire survey, which helped identify those specific issues and related costs that project stakeholders consider to be most critical in the Australian industry context. Through the survey, three key stakeholders in highway infrastructure development, namely consultants, contractors and government agencies, provided their views on the specific selection and priority ranking of the various categories. Findings of the survey are being integrated into proven LCCA models for further enhancement. A new LCCA model will be developed to assist the stakeholders to evaluate costs and investment decisions and reach optimum balance between financial viability and sustainability deliverables.
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The Government of the Hong Kong SAR sponsored a report investigating the Hong Kong construction inudstry and published the investigating committee's findings in 2001 (HK CIRC 2001). Since then the Provisional Construction Industry Coordination Board (PCICB), and its successor, the Construction Industry Council (CIC), also set up by the Government, has made progress with the necessary reforms. Now that seven years have passed, it is time for an independent evaluation of the impact of the CIRC initiative in order to assist the CIC and the Government decision-makers in refining the efforts to improve the industry's performance. This paper reports on the interim results of a study that seeks to provide such an evaluation.
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Several sets of changes have been made to motorcycle licensing in Queensland since 2007, with the aim of improving the safety of novice riders. These include a requirement that a motorcycle learner licence applicant must have held a provisional or open car licence for 12 months, and imposing a 3 year limit for learner licence renewal. Additionally, a requirement to hold an RE (250 cc limited) class licence for a period of 12 months prior to progressing to an R class licence was introduced for Q-RIDE. This paper presents analyses of licensing transaction data that examine the effects of the licensing changes on the duration that the learner licence was held, factors affecting this duration and the extent to which the demographic characteristics of learner licence holders changed. The likely safety implications of the observed changes are discussed.
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Executive summary Objective: The aims of this study were to identify the impact of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza on Australian Emergency Departments (EDs) and their staff, and to inform planning, preparedness, and response management arrangements for future pandemics, as well as managing infectious patients presenting to EDs in everyday practice. Methods This study involved three elements: 1. The first element of the study was an examination of published material including published statistics. Standard literature research methods were used to identify relevant published articles. In addition, data about ED demand was obtained from Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing (DoHA) publications, with several state health departments providing more detailed data. 2. The second element of the study was a survey of Directors of Emergency Medicine identified with the assistance of the Australasian College for Emergency Medicine (ACEM). This survey retrieved data about demand for ED services and elicited qualitative comments on the impact of the pandemic on ED management. 3. The third element of the study was a survey of ED staff. A questionnaire was emailed to members of three professional colleges—the ACEM; the Australian College of Emergency Nursing (ACEN); and the College of Emergency Nursing Australasia (CENA). The overall response rate for the survey was 18.4%, with 618 usable responses from 3355 distributed questionnaires. Topics covered by the survey included ED conditions during the (H1N1) 2009 influenza pandemic; information received about Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza; pandemic plans; the impact of the pandemic on ED staff with respect to stress; illness prevention measures; support received from others in work role; staff and others’ illness during the pandemic; other factors causing ED staff to miss work during the pandemic; and vaccination against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Both qualitative and quantitative data were collected and analysed. Results: The results obtained from Directors of Emergency Medicine quantifying the impact of the pandemic were too limited for interpretation. Data sourced from health departments and published sources demonstrated an increase in influenza-like illness (ILI) presentations of between one and a half and three times the normal level of presentations of ILIs. Directors of Emergency Medicine reported a reasonable level of preparation for the pandemic, with most reporting the use of pandemic plans that translated into relatively effective operational infection control responses. Directors reported a highly significant impact on EDs and their staff from the pandemic. Growth in demand and related ED congestion were highly significant factors causing distress within the departments. Most (64%) respondents established a ‘flu clinic’ either as part of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza Outbreak in Australia: Impact on Emergency Departments. the ED operations or external to it. They did not note a significantly higher rate of sick leave than usual. Responses relating to the impact on staff were proportional to the size of the colleges. Most respondents felt strongly that Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on demand in their ED, with most patients having low levels of clinical urgency. Most respondents felt that the pandemic had a negative impact on the care of other patients, and 94% revealed some increase in stress due to lack of space for patients, increased demand, and filling staff deficits. Levels of concern about themselves or their family members contracting the illness were less significant than expected. Nurses displayed significantly higher levels of stress overall, particularly in relation to skill-mix requirements, lack of supplies and equipment, and patient and patients’ family aggression. More than one-third of respondents became ill with an ILI. Whilst respondents themselves reported taking low levels of sick leave, respondents cited difficulties with replacing absent staff. Ranked from highest to lowest, respondents gained useful support from ED colleagues, ED administration, their hospital occupational health department, hospital administration, professional colleges, state health department, and their unions. Respondents were generally positive about the information they received overall; however, the volume of information was considered excessive and sometimes inconsistent. The media was criticised as scaremongering and sensationalist and as being the cause of many unnecessary presentations to EDs. Of concern to the investigators was that a large proportion (43%) of respondents did not know whether a pandemic plan existed for their department or hospital. A small number of staff reported being redeployed from their usual workplace for personal risk factors or operational reasons. As at the time of survey (29 October –18 December 2009), 26% of ED staff reported being vaccinated against Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza. Of those not vaccinated, half indicated they would ‘definitely’ or ‘probably’ not get vaccinated, with the main reasons being the vaccine was ‘rushed into production’, ‘not properly tested’, ‘came out too late’, or not needed due to prior infection or exposure, or due to the mildness of the disease. Conclusion: Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Influenza had a significant impact on Australian Emergency Departments. The pandemic exposed problems in existing plans, particularly a lack of guidelines, general information overload, and confusion due to the lack of a single authoritative information source. Of concern was the high proportion of respondents who did not know if their hospital or department had a pandemic plan. Nationally, the pandemic communication strategy needs a detailed review, with more engagement with media networks to encourage responsible and consistent reporting. Also of concern was the low level of immunisation, and the low level of intention to accept vaccination. This is a problem seen in many previous studies relating to seasonal influenza and health care workers. The design of EDs needs to be addressed to better manage infectious patients. Significant workforce issues were confronted in this pandemic, including maintaining appropriate staffing levels; staff exposure to illness; access to, and appropriate use of, personal protective equipment (PPE); and the difficulties associated with working in PPE for prolonged periods. An administrative issue of note was the reporting requirement, which created considerable additional stress for staff within EDs. Peer and local support strategies helped ensure staff felt their needs were provided for, creating resilience, dependability, and stability in the ED workforce. Policies regarding the establishment of flu clinics need to be reviewed. The ability to create surge capacity within EDs by considering staffing, equipment, physical space, and stores is of primary importance for future pandemics.
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Architecture for a Free Subjectivity reformulates the French philosopher Gilles Deleuze's model of subjectivity for architecture, by surveying the prolific effects of architectural encounter, and the spaces that figure in them. For Deleuze and his Lacanian collaborator Félix Guattari, subjectivity does not refer to a person, but to the potential for and event of matter becoming subject, and the myriad ways for this to take place. By extension, this book theorizes architecture as a self-actuating or creative agency for the liberation of purely "impersonal effects." Imagine a chemical reaction, a riot in the banlieues, indeed a walk through a city. Simone Brott declares that the architectural object does not merely take part in the production of subjectivity, but that it constitutes its own.
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This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.
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The intent of this note is to succinctly articulate additional points that were not provided in the original paper (Lord et al., 2005) and to help clarify a collective reluctance to adopt zero-inflated (ZI) models for modeling highway safety data. A dialogue on this important issue, just one of many important safety modeling issues, is healthy discourse on the path towards improved safety modeling. This note first provides a summary of prior findings and conclusions of the original paper. It then presents two critical and relevant issues: the maximizing statistical fit fallacy and logic problems with the ZI model in highway safety modeling. Finally, we provide brief conclusions.
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Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile
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A degree of judicial caution in accepting the assertion of a plaintiff as to what he or she would have done, if fully informed of risks, is clearly evident upon a review of decisions applying the common law. Civil liability legislation in some jurisdictions now precludes assertion evidence by a plaintiff. Although this legislative change was seen as creating a significant challenge for plaintiffs seeking to discharge the onus of proof of establishing causation in such cases, recent decisions suggest a more limited practical effect. While a plaintiff’s ex post facto assertions as to what he or she would have done if fully informed of risks may now be inadmissible, objective and subjective evidence as to the surrounding facts and circumstances, in particular the plaintiff’s prior attitudes and conduct, and the assertion evidence of others remains admissible. Given the court’s reliance on both objective and subjective evidence, statistical evidence may be of increasing importance.
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In this paper, we present a microphone array beamforming approach to blind speech separation. Unlike previous beamforming approaches, our system does not require a-priori knowledge of the microphone placement and speaker location, making the system directly comparable other blind source separation methods which require no prior knowledge of recording conditions. Microphone location is automatically estimated using an assumed noise field model, and speaker locations are estimated using cross correlation based methods. The system is evaluated on the data provided for the PASCAL Speech Separation Challenge 2 (SSC2), achieving a word error rate of 58% on the evaluation set.
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The ability of a designer – for example, interior designer, architect, landscape architect, etc. – to design for a particular target group (user and/or clients) is potentially enhanced through more targeted studies relating colour in situ. The study outlined in this paper involved participant responses to five achromatic scenes of different built environments prior to viewing the same scenes in colour. Importantly, in this study the participants, who were young designers, came to realise that colour potentially holds the power to impact on the identity of an architectural form, an interior space and/or particular elements such as doorways, furniture settings, etc., as well as influence atmosphere. Prior to discussing the study, a selection of other research, which links colour to meaning and emotions, introduces how people understand and/or feel in relation to colour. For example, yellow is said to be connected to happiness; or red evokes feelings of anger. Secondly, the need for spatial designers to understand colour in context is raised. An overview of the study is then provided. It was found that the impact of colour includes a shift in perception of aspects such as its atmosphere and youthfulness. Through studio/class discussions it was also noted the predicted age of the place, the function, and in association, the potential users when colour was added (or deleted) were often challenged.
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Background Despite the recognition of obesity in young people as a key health issue, there is limited evidence to inform health professionals regarding the most appropriate treatment options. The Eat Smart study aims to contribute to the knowledge base of effective dietary strategies for the clinical management of the obese adolescent and examine the cardiometablic effects of a reduced carbohydrate diet versus a low fat diet. Methods and design Eat Smart is a randomised controlled trial and aims to recruit 100 adolescents over a 2½ year period. Families will be invited to participate following referral by their health professional who has recommended weight management. Participants will be overweight as defined by a body mass index (BMI) greater than the 90th percentile, using CDC 2000 growth charts. An accredited 6-week psychological life skills program ‘FRIENDS for Life’, which is designed to provide behaviour change and coping skills will be undertaken prior to volunteers being randomised to group. The intervention arms include a structured reduced carbohydrate or a structured low fat dietary program based on an individualised energy prescription. The intervention will involve a series of dietetic appointments over 24 weeks. The control group will commence the dietary program of their choice after a 12 week period. Outcome measures will be assessed at baseline, week 12 and week 24. The primary outcome measure will be change in BMI z-score. A range of secondary outcome measures including body composition, lipid fractions, inflammatory markers, social and psychological measures will be measured. Discussion The chronic and difficult nature of treating the obese adolescent is increasingly recognised by clinicians and has highlighted the need for research aimed at providing effective intervention strategies, particularly for use in the tertiary setting. A structured reduced carbohydrate approach may provide a dietary pattern that some families will find more sustainable and effective than the conventional low fat dietary approach currently advocated. This study aims to investigate the acceptability and effectiveness of a structured reduced dietary carbohydrate intervention and will compare the outcomes of this approach with a structured low fat eating plan. Trial Registration: The protocol for this study is registered with the International Clinical Trials Registry (ISRCTN49438757).
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The field of collaborative health planning faces significant challenges due to the lack of effective information, systems and the absence of a framework to make informed decisions. These challenges have been magnified by the rise of the healthy cities movement, consequently, there have been more frequent calls for localised, collaborative and evidence-driven decision-making. Some studies in the past have reported that the use of decision support systems (DSS) for planning healthy cities may lead to: increase collaboration between stakeholders and the general public, improve the accuracy and quality of the decision-making processes and improve the availability of data and information for health decision-makers. These links have not yet been fully tested and only a handful of studies have evaluated the impact of DSS on stakeholders, policy-makers and health planners. This study suggests a framework for developing healthy cities and introduces an online Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based DSS for improving the collaborative health planning. It also presents preliminary findings of an ongoing case study conducted in the Logan-Beaudesert region of Queensland, Australia. These findings highlight the perceptions of decision-making prior to the implementation of the DSS intervention. Further, the findings help us to understand the potential role of the DSS to improve collaborative health planning practice.
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This paper presents the findings of a small pilot study conducted with a group of final year pre-service teachers studying a secondary social science curriculum method unit in an Australian university. One of the study’s research objectives aimed at identifying how students responded to efforts to embed intercultural understanding through Studies of Asia in their final curriculum method unit. The unit was designed and taught by the researcher on the assumption that beginning social science teachers need to be empowered with pedagogical skills and new dispositions to deal with value laden emerging regional and global concerns in their Australian secondary school classrooms. This pilot study’s research methodology was located within the qualitative framework of a participatory action research model whereby the lecturer who designed, coordinated and taught the unit was also the researcher. Its scope was limited to one semester with volunteer students. The pilot study sought to investigate responses to several issues, and this paper reports on pre-service teacher reflections on the content, pedagogy and learning they experienced in their weekly sessions with specific reference to cultural understanding, Studies of Asia and the development of Asia literacy. It also reports on pre-service teacher reflections about their own evolving capacity as beginning teachers. The findings indicate that pre-service teachers valued the opportunity to engage with learning experiences which enhanced their conceptual understandings about culture whilst also extending their pedagogical and content knowledge.