Estimating the mean critical gap

The estimation of the critical gap has been an issue since the 1970s, when gap acceptance was introduced to evaluate the capacity of unsignalized intersections. The critical gap is the shortest gap that a driver is assumed to accept. A driver’s critical gap cannot be measured directly and a number of techniques have been developed to estimate the mean critical gaps of a sample of drivers. This paper reviews the ability of the Maximum Likelihood technique and the Probability Equilibrium Method to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gap with a simulation of 100 drivers, repeated 100 times for each flow condition. The Maximum Likelihood method gave consistent and unbiased estimates of the mean critical gap. Whereas the probability equilibrium method had a significant bias that was dependent on the flow in the priority stream. Both methods were reasonably consistent, although the Maximum Likelihood Method was slightly better. If drivers are inconsistent, then again the Maximum Likelihood method is superior. A criticism levelled at the Maximum Likelihood method is that a distribution of the critical gap has to be assumed. It was shown that this does not significantly affect its ability to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gaps. Finally, the Maximum Likelihood method can predict reasonable estimates with observations for 25 to 30 drivers. A spreadsheet procedure for using the Maximum Likelihood method is provided in this paper. The PEM can be improved if the maximum rejected gap is used.

Cryptanalysis of SIMON Variants with Connections

SIMON is a family of 10 lightweight block ciphers published by Beaulieu et al. from the United States National Security Agency (NSA). A cipher in this family with K -bit key and N -bit block is called SIMON N/K . We present several linear characteristics for reduced-round SIMON32/64 that can be used for a key-recovery attack and extend them further to attack other variants of SIMON. Moreover, we provide results of key recovery analysis using several impossible differential characteristics starting from 14 out of 32 rounds for SIMON32/64 to 22 out of 72 rounds for SIMON128/256. In some cases the presented observations do not directly yield an attack, but provide a basis for further analysis for the specific SIMON variant. Finally, we exploit a connection between linear and differential characteristics for SIMON to construct linear characteristics for different variants of reduced-round SIMON. Our attacks extend to all variants of SIMON covering more rounds compared to any known results using linear cryptanalysis. We present a key recovery attack against SIMON128/256 which covers 35 out of 72 rounds with data complexity 2123 . We have implemented our attacks for small scale variants of SIMON and our experiments confirm the theoretical bias presented in this work.

A comparison between conductive and infrared devices for measuring mean skin temperature at rest, during exercise in the heat, and recovery

Purpose: Skin temperature assessment has historically been undertaken with conductive devices affixed to the skin. With the development of technology, infrared devices are increasingly utilised in the measurement of skin temperature. Therefore, our purpose was to evaluate the agreement between four skin temperature devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and recovery. Methods: Mean skin temperature (T̅sk) was assessed in thirty healthy males during 30 min rest (24.0± 1.2°C, 56 ± 8%), 30 min cycle in the heat (38.0 ± 0.5°C, 41 ± 2%), and 45 min recovery(24.0 ± 1.3°C, 56 ± 9%). T̅sk was assessed at four sites using two conductive devices(thermistors, iButtons) and two infrared devices (infrared thermometer, infrared camera). Results: Bland–Altman plots demonstrated mean bias ± limits of agreement between the thermistors and iButtons as follows (rest, exercise, recovery): -0.01 ± 0.04, 0.26 ± 0.85, -0.37 ± 0.98°C; thermistors and infrared thermometer: 0.34 ± 0.44, -0.44 ± 1.23, -1.04 ± 1.75°C; thermistors and infrared camera (rest, recovery): 0.83 ± 0.77, 1.88 ± 1.87°C. Pairwise comparisons of T̅sk found significant differences (p < 0.05) between thermistors and both infrared devices during resting conditions, and significant differences between the thermistors and all other devices tested during exercise in the heat and recovery. Conclusions: These results indicate poor agreement between conductive and infrared devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and subsequent recovery. Infrared devices may not be suitable for monitoring T̅sk in the presence of, or following, metabolic and environmental induced heat stress.

Delving deeper into maintenance behaviour

Andreasen (2003) argues that there is a ‘starting change’ bias in the social marketing field as much research is centred on inducing initial behavioural change. However, repeat or maintenance behaviour is often critical to achieving social goals across many domains. For instance, the repeat use of professional therapeutic services is vital for improved mental health, although premature discontinuance of service use is common (Wang, 2007). This study contributes to addressing this gap in the social marketing literature by exploring key drivers of maintenance behaviour, in the form of repeat service use, in mental health. This is in line with Andreasen’s (1994) argument that social marketing is an appropriate approach to addressing mental health challenges.

Research on injury compensation and health outcomes : ignoring the problem of reverse causality led to a biased conclusion

Objective This study highlights the serious consequences of ignoring reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health outcomes and demonstrates a technique for resolving this problem of observational data. Study Design and Setting Data from an English longitudinal study on factors, including claims for compensation, associated with recovery from neck pain (whiplash) after rear-end collisions are used to demonstrate the potential for reverse causality bias. Although it is commonly believed that claiming compensation leads to worse recovery, it is also possible that poor recovery may lead to compensation claims—a point that is seldom considered and never addressed empirically. This pedagogical study compares the association between compensation claiming and recovery when reverse causality bias is ignored and when it is addressed, controlling for the same observable factors. Results When reverse causality is ignored, claimants appear to have a worse recovery than nonclaimants; however, when reverse causality bias is addressed, claiming compensation appears to have a beneficial effect on recovery, ceteris paribus. Conclusion To avert biased policy and judicial decisions that might inadvertently disadvantage people with compensable injuries, there is an urgent need for researchers to address reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health.

The impact of childhood malnutrition on schooling : evidence from Bangladesh

Summary This paper examines the impact of childhood malnutrition on schooling performance in rural Bangladesh. The results reveal that malnourished children are less likely to enrol in school on time and achieve an age-appropriate grade by 26 percentage points and 31 percentage points, respectively. Other important determinants of schooling outcomes include infrastructure and education level of parents. One major contribution of this paper is the control for the endogeneity of malnutrition status, which otherwise might lead to bias estimates.

Assessing the welfare effects of microfinance in Vietnam : empirical results from a quasi-experimental survey

This article analyses the effects of NGO microfinance programmes on household welfare in Vietnam. Data on 470 households across 25 villages were collected using a quasi-experimental survey approach to overcome any self-selection bias. The sample was designed so that member households of microfinance programmes were compared with non-member households with similar characteristics. The analysis shows no significant effects of participation in NGO microfinance on household welfare, proxied by income and consumption per adult equivalent.

Real-time assessment of GNSS observation noise with single receivers

Stochastic modelling is critical in GNSS data processing. Currently, GNSS data processing commonly relies on the empirical stochastic model which may not reflect the actual data quality or noise characteristics. This paper examines the real-time GNSS observation noise estimation methods enabling to determine the observation variance from single receiver data stream. The methods involve three steps: forming linear combination, handling the ionosphere and ambiguity bias and variance estimation. Two distinguished ways are applied to overcome the ionosphere and ambiguity biases, known as the time differenced method and polynomial prediction method respectively. The real time variance estimation methods are compared with the zero-baseline and short-baseline methods. The proposed method only requires single receiver observation, thus applicable to both differenced and un-differenced data processing modes. However, the methods may be subject to the normal ionosphere conditions and low autocorrelation GNSS receivers. Experimental results also indicate the proposed method can result on more realistic parameter precision.

Impact of mobility and topology on information diffusion in MANETs

In some delay-tolerant communication systems such as vehicular ad-hoc networks, information flow can be represented as an infectious process, where each entity having already received the information will try to share it with its neighbours. The random walk and random waypoint models are popular analysis tools for these epidemic broadcasts, and represent two types of random mobility. In this paper, we introduce a simulation framework investigating the impact of a gradual increase of bias in path selection (i.e. reduction of randomness), when moving from the former to the latter. Randomness in path selection can significantly alter the system performances, in both regular and irregular network structures. The implications of these results for real systems are discussed in details.

Family-based programmes for preventing smoking by children and adolescents (Review)

Background There is evidence that family and friends influence children's decisions to smoke. Objectives To assess the effectiveness of interventions to help families stop children starting smoking. Search methods We searched 14 electronic bibliographic databases, including the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group specialized register, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL unpublished material, and key articles' reference lists. We performed free-text internet searches and targeted searches of appropriate websites, and hand-searched key journals not available electronically. We consulted authors and experts in the field. The most recent search was 3 April 2014. There were no date or language limitations. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions with children (aged 5-12) or adolescents (aged 13-18) and families to deter tobacco use. The primary outcome was the effect of the intervention on the smoking status of children who reported no use of tobacco at baseline. Included trials had to report outcomes measured at least six months from the start of the intervention. Data collection and analysis We reviewed all potentially relevant citations and retrieved the full text to determine whether the study was an RCT and matched our inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted study data for each RCT and assessed them for risk of bias. We pooled risk ratios using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect model. Main results Twenty-seven RCTs were included. The interventions were very heterogeneous in the components of the family intervention, the other risk behaviours targeted alongside tobacco, the age of children at baseline and the length of follow-up. Two interventions were tested by two RCTs, one was tested by three RCTs and the remaining 20 distinct interventions were tested only by one RCT. Twenty-three interventions were tested in the USA, two in Europe, one in Australia and one in India. The control conditions fell into two main groups: no intervention or usual care; or school-based interventions provided to all participants. These two groups of studies were considered separately. Most studies had a judgement of 'unclear' for at least one risk of bias criteria, so the quality of evidence was downgraded to moderate. Although there was heterogeneity between studies there was little evidence of statistical heterogeneity in the results. We were unable to extract data from all studies in a format that allowed inclusion in a meta-analysis. There was moderate quality evidence family-based interventions had a positive impact on preventing smoking when compared to a no intervention control. Nine studies (4810 participants) reporting smoking uptake amongst baseline non-smokers could be pooled, but eight studies with about 5000 participants could not be pooled because of insufficient data. The pooled estimate detected a significant reduction in smoking behaviour in the intervention arms (risk ratio [RR] 0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68 to 0.84). Most of these studies used intensive interventions. Estimates for the medium and low intensity subgroups were similar but confidence intervals were wide. Two studies in which some of the 4487 participants already had smoking experience at baseline did not detect evidence of effect (RR 1.04, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.17). Eight RCTs compared a combined family plus school intervention to a school intervention only. Of the three studies with data, two RCTS with outcomes for 2301 baseline never smokers detected evidence of an effect (RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.96) and one study with data for 1096 participants not restricted to never users at baseline also detected a benefit (RR 0.60, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.94). The other five studies with about 18,500 participants did not report data in a format allowing meta-analysis. One RCT also compared a family intervention to a school 'good behaviour' intervention and did not detect a difference between the two types of programme (RR 1.05, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.38, n = 388). No studies identified any adverse effects of intervention. Authors' conclusions There is moderate quality evidence to suggest that family-based interventions can have a positive effect on preventing children and adolescents from starting to smoke. There were more studies of high intensity programmes compared to a control group receiving no intervention, than there were for other compairsons. The evidence is therefore strongest for high intensity programmes used independently of school interventions. Programmes typically addressed family functioning, and were introduced when children were between 11 and 14 years old. Based on this moderate quality evidence a family intervention might reduce uptake or experimentation with smoking by between 16 and 32%. However, these findings should be interpreted cautiously because effect estimates could not include data from all studies. Our interpretation is that the common feature of the effective high intensity interventions was encouraging authoritative parenting (which is usually defined as showing strong interest in and care for the adolescent, often with rule setting). This is different from authoritarian parenting (do as I say) or neglectful or unsupervised parenting.

Impact of real-time traffic characteristics on freeway crash occurrence: Systematic review and meta-analysis

The development of methods for real-time crash prediction as a function of current or recent traffic and roadway conditions is gaining increasing attention in the literature. Numerous studies have modeled the relationships between traffic characteristics and crash occurrence, and significant progress has been made. Given the accumulated evidence on this topic and the lack of an articulate summary of research status, challenges, and opportunities, there is an urgent need to scientifically review these studies and to synthesize the existing state-of-the-art knowledge. This paper addresses this need by undertaking a systematic literature review to identify current knowledge, challenges, and opportunities, and then conducts a meta-analysis of existing studies to provide a summary impact of traffic characteristics on crash occurrence. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess quality, publication bias, and outlier bias of the various studies; and the time intervals used to measure traffic characteristics were also considered. As a result of this comprehensive and systematic review, issues in study designs, traffic and crash data, and model development and validation are discussed. Outcomes of this study are intended to provide researchers focused on real-time crash prediction with greater insight into the modeling of this important but extremely challenging safety issue.

School-based education programmes for the prevention of child sexual abuse

Background Child sexual abuse is a significant global problem in both magnitude and sequelae. The most widely used primary prevention strategy has been the provision of school-based education programmes. Although programmes have been taught in schools since the 1980s, their effectiveness requires ongoing scrutiny. Objectives To systematically assess evidence of the effectiveness of school-based education programmes for the prevention of child sexual abuse. Specifically, to assess whether: programmes are effective in improving students’ protective behaviours and knowledge about sexual abuse prevention; behaviours and skills are retained over time; and participation results in disclosures of sexual abuse, produces harms, or both. Search methods In September 2014, we searched CENTRAL, OvidMEDLINE, EMBASE and 11 other databases.We also searched two trials registers and screened the reference lists of previous reviews for additional trials. Selection criteria We selected randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cluster-RCTs, and quasi-RCTs of school-based education interventions for the prevention of child sexual abuse compared with another intervention or no intervention. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently assessed the eligibility of trials for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias.We summarised data for six outcomes: protective behaviours; knowledge of sexual abuse or sexual abuse prevention concepts; retention of protective behaviours over time; retention of knowledge over time; harm; and disclosures of sexual abuse. School-

Submission to Communications Alliance Industry Code: Copyright Notice Scheme

In making this submission, we suggest that Australia learn from the experiences of other jurisdictions, and avoid some of the mistakes that have been made. In particular, this involves: * Ensuring that adequate information is available to evaluate the success of the scheme * Ensuring that notices sent to consumers provide full and accurate information that helps them understand their rights and options * Limiting the potential abuse of the system, and particularly attempts to intimidate consumers into paying unfair penalties through ‘speculative invoicing’ * Avoiding the potential for actual or perceived bias in the scheme’s oversight body

Nigeria's power sector: Analysis of productivity

Nigerian electricity market is characterized by inadequate electricity generation framework, compounded by lack of timely routine maintenances. This results in significant deterioration in plant electricity output. This study analyzes the productivity changes in the Nigerian power sector. Productivity increased on average in the power sector by the adoption of new technologies from best-practice power plants. The assumption of Hicks neutral technological change is found not to be suitable for the Nigerian power sector. This study finds that the plants are not using their capacity meaningfully, instead, there is a tendency to use labor.

Combined pharmacotherapy and psychological therapies for post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)

BACKGROUND PTSD is an anxiety disorder related to exposure to a severe psychological trauma. Symptoms include re-experiencing the event, avoidance and arousal as well as distress and impairment resulting from these symptoms.Guidelines suggest a combination of both psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy may enhance treatment response, especially in those with more severe PTSD or in those who have not responded to either intervention alone. OBJECTIVES To assess whether the combination of psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy provides a more efficacious treatment for PTSD than either of these interventions delivered separately. SEARCH STRATEGY Searches were conducted on the trial registers kept by the CCDAN group (CCDANCTR-Studies and CCDANCTR-References) to June 2010. The reference sections of included studies and several conference abstracts were also scanned. SELECTION CRITERIA Patients of any age or gender, with chronic or recent onset PTSD arising from any type of event relevant to the diagnostic criteria were included. A combination of any psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy was included and compared to wait list, placebo, standard treatment or either intervention alone. The primary outcome was change in total PTSD symptom severity. Other outcomes included changes in functioning, depression and anxiety symptoms, suicide attempts, substance use, withdrawal and cost. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two or three review authors independently selected trials, assessed their 'risk of bias' and extracted trial and outcome data. We used a fixed-effect model for meta-analysis. The relative risk was used to summarise dichotomous outcomes and the mean difference and standardised mean difference were used to summarise continuous measures. MAIN RESULTS Four trials were eligible for inclusion, one of these trials (n =24) was on children and adolescents. All used an SSRI and prolonged exposure or a cognitive behavioural intervention. Two trials compared combination treatment with pharmacological treatment and two compared combination treatment with psychological treatment. Only two trials reported a total PTSD symptom score and these data could not be combined. There was no strong evidence to show if there were differences between the group receiving combined interventions compared to the group receiving psychological therapy (mean difference 2.44, 95% CI -2.87, 7.35 one study, n=65) or pharmacotherapy (mean difference -4.70, 95% CI -10.84 to 1.44; one study, n = 25). Trialists reported no significant differences between combination and single intervention groups in the other two studies. There were very little data reported for other outcomes, and in no case were significant differences reported. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS There is not enough evidence available to support or refute the effectiveness of combined psychological therapy and pharmacotherapy compared to either of these interventions alone. Further large randomised controlled trials are urgently required.