Biosystematics of the Genus Andryala L. (Asteraceae)

Andryala (Asteraceae: Cichorieae) is a little-known Mediterranean-Macaronesian genus whose taxonomy is much in need of revision. The aim of the present biosystematic study was to elucidate species relationships within this genus based on morphological and molecular data. In this study several taxa are recognised: 17 species, 14 subspecies, and 3 hybrids. Among these, 5 species are Macaronesian endemics (A. glandulosa, A. sparsiflora, A. crithmifolia Aiton, A. pinnatifida, and A. perezii), 4 species are Northwest African endemics (A. mogadorensis, A. maroccana, A. chevallieri, and A. nigricans) and one species is endemic to Romania (A. laevitomentosa). Historical background regarding taxonomic delimitation in the genus is addressed from Linnaean to present day concepts, as well as the origin of the name Andryala. The origin of Asteraceae and the systematic position of Andryala is shortly summarised. The morphological study was based on a bibliographic review and the revision of 1066 specimens of 13 herbaria as well as additional material collected during fieldwork. The variability of the morphological characters of the genus, including both vegetative taxonomic characters (root, stem, leaf and indumentum characters) and reproductive ones (inflorescence, floret, fruit and pappus characters), is assessed. Numerical analysis of the morphological data was performed using different similarity or dissimilarity measures and coefficients, as well as ordination and clustering methods. Results support the segregation of the recognised taxa and the congruence of the several analyses in the separation of the recognised taxa (using quantitative, binary or multi-state characters). The proposed taxonomy for Andryala includes a new infra-generic classification, new taxa and new combinations and ranks, typifications and diagnostic keys (one for the species and several for subspecies). For each taxon a list of synonyms, typification comments and a detailed description are provided, just as comments on taxonomy and nomenclature, and a brief discussion on karyology. Additionally, information on ecology and conservation status as well as on distribution and a list of studied material are also presented. Phylogenetic analyses based on different nuclear and chloroplast DNA markers, using Bayesian and maximum parsimony methods of inference, were performed. Results support three main lineages: separate ones for the relict species A. agardhii and A. laevitomentosa and a third including the majority of the Andryala species that underwent a relatively rapid and recent speciation. They also suggest a single colonization event of Madeira and the Canary Islands from the Mediterranean region, followed by insular speciation. Biogeography and speciation within the genus are briefly discussed, including a proposal for the centre of origin of the genus and possible dispersal routes.

5S rDNA variation and its phylogenetic inference in the genus Leporinus (Characiformes : Anostomidae)

5S rDNA sequences have proven to be valuable as genetic markers to distinguish closely related species and also in the understanding of the dynamic of repetitive sequences in the genomes. In the aim to contribute to the knowledge of the evolutionary history of Leporinus (Anostomidae) and also to contribute to the understanding of the 5S rDNA sequences organization in the fish genome, analyses of 5S rDNA sequences were conducted in seven species of this genus. The 5S rRNA gene sequence was highly conserved among Leporinus species, whereas NTS exhibit high levels of variations related to insertions, deletions, microrepeats, and base substitutions. The phylogenetic analysis of the 5S rDNA sequences clustered the species into two clades that are in agreement with cytogenetic and morphological data.

Comparing three indices of catch per unit effort using Bayesian geostatistics

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Body size and flight distance in stingless bees (Hymenoptera: Meliponini): inference of flight range and possible ecological implications

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comparison between the complete Bayesian method and empirical Bayesian method for ARCH models using Brazilian financial time series

In this work we compared the estimates of the parameters of ARCH models using a complete Bayesian method and an empirical Bayesian method in which we adopted a non-informative prior distribution and informative prior distribution, respectively. We also considered a reparameterization of those models in order to map the space of the parameters into real space. This procedure permits choosing prior normal distributions for the transformed parameters. The posterior summaries were obtained using Monte Carlo Markov chain methods (MCMC). The methodology was evaluated by considering the Telebras series from the Brazilian financial market. The results show that the two methods are able to adjust ARCH models with different numbers of parameters. The empirical Bayesian method provided a more parsimonious model to the data and better adjustment than the complete Bayesian method.

A fuzzy inference system for identification of crossflow filtration processes

The crossflow filtration process differs of the conventional filtration by presenting the circulation flow tangentially to the filtration surface. The conventional mathematical models used to represent the process have some limitations in relation to the identification and generalization of the system behavior. In this paper, a system based on fuzzy logic systems is developed to overcome the problems usually found in the conventional mathematical models. Imprecisions and uncertainties associated with the measurements made on the system are automatically incorporated in the fuzzy approach. Simulation results are presented to justify the validity of the proposed approach.

Mapping lightning processes using fuzzy inference system

This paper describes a novel approach for mapping lightning processes using fuzzy logic. The core regarding lightning process is to identify and to model those uncertain information on mathematical principles. In fact, the lightning process involves several nonlinear features that our current mathematical tools would not be able to model. The estimation process has been carried out using a fuzzy system based on Sugeno's architecture. Simulation results confirm that proposed approach can be efficiently used in these types of problem.

A Bayesian approach for assessing the stability of genotypes

Several statistical models can be used for assessing genotype X environment interaction (GEI) and studying genotypic stability. The objectives of this research were to show how (i) to use Bayesian methodology for computing Shukla's phenotypic stability variance and (ii) to incorporate prior information on the parameters for better estimation. Potato [Solanum tuberosum subsp. andigenum (Juz. & Bukasov) Hawkes], wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and maize (Zea mays L.) multi environment trials (MET) were used for illustrating the application of the Bayes paradigm. The potato trial included 15 genotypes, but prior information for just three genotypes was used. The wheat trial used prior information on all 10 genotypes included in the trial, whereas for the maize trial, noninformative priors for the nine genotypes was used. Concerning the posterior distribution of the genotypic means, the maize MET with 20 sites gave less disperse posterior distributions of the genotypic means than did the posterior distribution of the genotypic means of the other METs, which included fewer environments. The Bayesian approach allows use of other statistical strategies such as the normal truncated distribution (used in this study). When analyzing grain yield, a lower bound of zero and an upper bound set by the researcher's experience can be used. The Bayesian paradigm offers plant breeders the possibility of computing the probability of a genotype being the best performer. The results of this study show that although some genotypes may have a very low probability of being the best in all sites, they have a relatively good chance of being among the five highest yielding genotypes.

Psychophysical power functions for apparent area in perceptive, memory, and inference conditions for observers of different age groups

The purpose of this research was to verify the effect of age on the exponent of the power function in Perceptive, Memory, and Inference experimental conditions. In the Memory condition the intervals of 2 min., 8, 24, and 48 hr. and 1 wk. were used between acquisition of information and remembering. For each experimental condition the ages of observers ranged between 17 and 35 years (Group I), 40-55 years (Group II), and 60-77 years (Group III), and education ranged from high school to graduate school. The observers estimated the areas of the Brazilian states using the psychophysical method of magnitude estimation. No significant differences were obtained for Groups I, II, and III for each experimental condition, except in the Memory Condition with the 24-hr. interval. Analysis for experimental conditions and ages showed a significant difference between the Perceptive Condition and each of the others, but no difference between the Inference and Memory Conditions. These results indicated that in the remembering processes there is no loss of information as a function of age. From the small variability in the power function exponents for the three ages, we may assume that age could be related to amount of education of the observers, which suggests study is important.

Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian L-optimal exact design of experiments for biological kinetic models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Bayesian outlier analysis in binary regression

We propose alternative approaches to analyze residuals in binary regression models based on random effect components. Our preferred model does not depend upon any tuning parameter, being completely automatic. Although the focus is mainly on accommodation of outliers, the proposed methodology is also able to detect them. Our approach consists of evaluating the posterior distribution of random effects included in the linear predictor. The evaluation of the posterior distributions of interest involves cumbersome integration, which is easily dealt with through stochastic simulation methods. We also discuss different specifications of prior distributions for the random effects. The potential of these strategies is compared in a real data set. The main finding is that the inclusion of extra variability accommodates the outliers, improving the adjustment of the model substantially, besides correctly indicating the possible outliers.

Genetic correlations between categorical morphological traits in Nelore cattle by applying Bayesian analysis under a threshold animal model

P>In this study, Bayesian analysis under a threshold animal model was used to estimate genetic correlations between morphological traits (body structure, finishing precocity and muscling) in Nelore cattle evaluated at weaning and yearling. Visual scores obtained from 7651 Nelore cattle at weaning and from 4155 animals at yearling, belonging to the Brazilian Nelore Program, were used. Genetic parameters for the morphological traits were estimated by two-trait Bayesian analysis under a threshold animal model. The genetic correlations between the morphological traits evaluated at two ages of the animal (weaning and yearling) were positive and high for body structure (0.91), finishing precocity (0.96) and muscling (0.94). These results indicate that the traits are mainly determined by the same set of genes of additive action and that direct selection at weaning will also result in genetic progress for the same traits at yearling. Thus, selection of the best genotypes during only one phase of life of the animal is suggested. However, genetic differences between morphological traits were better detected during the growth phase to yearling. Direct selection for body structure, finishing precocity and muscling at only one age, preferentially at yearling, is recommended as genetic differences between traits can be detected at this age.

Optimum design of experiments for statistical inference

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

STOMACH CONTENTS ANALYSIS of WHITE MARLIN (TETRAPTURUS ALBIDUS) CAUGHT OFF SOUTHERN and SOUTHEASTERN BRAZIL: A BAYESIAN ANALYSIS.

This study proposes to ascertain the importance of each alimentary category in the Tetrapturus albidus diet composition, as well as to propose the use of the Bayesian approach for analysis of these data. The stomachs were collected during fishing cruises carried out by the Santos-SP longliner from July 2007 to June 2008. For Bayesian model formulation, each alimentary item was clustered in four food categories as: teleost, cephalopod, crustaceans, and others. To estimate the proportion of each food category, the multinomial model with Dirichlet conjugate prior distribution was used. After the stomach contents analysis, 133 food items were identified, which belonged to 9 taxa. The most important food category is constituted by cephalopod molluscs, followed by teleost fishes. The food category comprised of crustaceans presents a low contribution and in this case it could be considered to be an accidental food item. The Bayesian approach means a distinct view in relation to traditional methods, as it permits one to incorporate information obtained from the literature. It should be useful to analyse great top predators, which are usually caught in small numbers.